Not to worry. Let's just see if we can predict what will happen, whether it is to become a full-blown Cold War or half-hearted. Studying the machinations of the "Great Powers" (and small) keeps one from worrying because it's all reduced to theatre - theatre of the absurd.

And, I mean, who did not predict that Russia's export of oil and natural gas would one day give it the upper hand?

Gwynne Dyer wonders today if the "old Europe" part of NATO is ready to break it up rather than make an enemy of Russia.

I predict a watering down of NATO "as we know it", to conform to the new reality - the energy source rules (with Canada the exception, of course).

[ 19 August 2008: Message edited by: George Victor ]

Poland signs a unilateral defense deal with the US. The Polish defense minister is very candid, stating that Poland wanted a one-on-one deal with the Americans because NATO dithering was of no use to a dead Pole.

The western Euroweinies will bleat and blather before caving in to Russian bullying,with the Russian boot firmly on the Euroweinie energy neck while the former Warsaw Pact eastern NATO members are left to Russian mercies and unilateral US support.

The Russians have choked off any competition to their energy monopoly through the Caucasus, leaving Afghanistan the only other option for energy exports from the Stans that does not cross Russia or Iran.

Canada's energy potential becomes ever more desirable as the political consequences of national energy strategies choke supplies.

The most serious damage from the current financial fiasco is still to come. It will rock everyone's world.

The new bully still seems to be rather benign compared to the old enforcer. Robbing Georgia, as reprehensible as it is, hardly compares to the looting that has occured in the name of consumer capitalism.

Poland is foolish, cutting off the limb it is sitting on.

This whole Euro-centric perspective speaks to our own biases. For the most part, Europe, is a consumer society. It has nothing to offer other than mouths and some fine art. From the Russian perspective, the Russians who have something fundamental to trade, the view is East - the new world is in the East.

The US will remain a dangerous but declining and bankrupt power. Canada will find herself chained to this sick, dying and violent elephant and with no way out other than to allow its resources to be plundered to maintain the unsustainable south of the border for as long as possible.

The perfect storm of energy depletion, growing water scarcity, and ecological collapse will loose the four horsemen. Humanity will be reduced to clubbing one another over food and water and the ruins of civilization -- assuming we don't nuke the planet first.

And I'm in an optimistic mood.

[ 19 August 2008: Message edited by: Frustrated Mess ]

quote:

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Humanity will be reduced to clubbing one another over food and water and the ruins of civilization

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2. The South Ossetian leader will turn out to be a headache for the Russians who will reject the idea of having South Ossetia join Russia. Instead, Abkhazia and South Ossetia will form a new country called Ass-etia with one cheek to the west and one cheek to the east.

3. This new country will discover huge natural gas reserves that will rival those in Turkmenistan and will be a pain in the ass to Georgia for decades to come.

4. Georgia will successfully file suit against Ass-etia for harming the quality of life in Georgia due to the constant natural gas leaks across the border.

quote:

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Originally posted by cornerstone:
.. and that Russian gas destined for Europe transits Georgia.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Frustrated Mess:
Luxury!

This whole Euro-centric perspective speaks to our own biases. For the most part, Europe, is a consumer society. It has nothing to offer other than mouths and some fine art. From the Russian perspective, the Russians who have something fundamental to trade, the view is East - the new world is in the East.

The US will remain a dangerous but declining and bankrupt power. Canada will find herself chained to this sick, dying and violent elephant and with no way out other than to allow its resources to be plundered to maintain the unsustainable south of the border for as long as possible.

The perfect storm of energy depletion, growing water scarcity, and ecological collapse will loose the four horsemen. Humanity will be reduced to clubbing one another over food and water and the ruins of civilization -- assuming we don't nuke the planet first.

And I'm in an optimistic mood.

[ 19 August 2008: Message edited by: Frustrated Mess ]

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What????

Unless resources are used to build things resources are worthless. Europe has one of the strongest manufacturing and development sectors in the world.

Europe is light years ahead of the rest of the world when it comes to alternative energy production and research. They also recognise and are developing comprehensive policy towards water management and desalination.

Water

quote:

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Originally posted by Fidel:

Since when? Did they cut out Ukraine-Europe pipelines altogether?

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Canada's energy potential becomes ever more desirable as the political consequences of national energy strategies choke supplies.

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Western Canada's oil and natural gas are certainly desirable for eastern Canada.

But it looks like we'll have to settle for North African LNG and Venezuelan oil as a result of the Washington/Ottawa accord (in lieu of a national energy strategy for this energy superpower.

It was to have been Russian LNG, but that is probably not on for a bit.

[ 20 August 2008: Message edited by: George Victor ]

LNG is trading on the spot market at a considerable premium to contract prices and suppliers are reluctant to commit to locked in contracts.

Gazprom is agressively expanding their ability to control gas markets. They recently offered to purchase the entire Algerian export gas reserves.

No one would pressurise the line unless they were damn confident nothing would happen to it.

A deal has been done.

The UK got into bed with the US in the invasion of Iraq in order to guarantee gas and oil supply but seeing that enterprise fail to deliver they have cut a side deal with Russia.

The Russian government's willingness to use Gazprom as a foreign policy tool should warn potential partners of future problems.

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Exactly why I wish that all we wusses down east understood that Steve's idea of energy self-sufficiency has a strange, geographical and political bias.

There will be no tanks.

[ 21 August 2008: Message edited by: George Victor ]

PARIS — Even as they urged Russian leaders to reject calls from the Russian Parliament to formally recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia, European diplomats on Monday began the delicate task of finding a consensus on the Russia-Georgia crisis before an emergency summit meeting of the European Union on Sept. 1.

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Times Topics: GeorgiaEuropeans agree that Russia overreacted to Georgia’s assault on South Ossetia and that Russia has not complied with the cease-fire agreement that ended the conflict.

But Europeans disagree on what to do about it, with little obvious leverage on Russia, especially on the ground in the Caucasus.
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But a consensus among 27 countries is hard to reach, not just on declarations but especially on actions to be taken.

“The E.U. always has trouble speaking with a single voice,” Mr. Kupchan said. “It will find consensus all the more difficult in this crisis. In Central Europe there’s a sense that we told you so, Russia is again an aggressor state. And in Western Europe there is a much more complicated view of the war in Georgia and an unwillingness to jump to the conclusion that it’s time to man the barricades and contain Russia.”

And some European governments are themselves divided. In Germany, most prominently, Chancellor Angela Merkel, who leads a grand coalition with the left and who grew up in East Germany, supports a relatively tough line against Moscow. But her foreign minister from the Social Democratic Party, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, favors a more accommodative policy.

Europe is also divided on whether potential membership for Georgia and Ukraine in NATO should be accelerated or postponed. In April, France and Germany opposed Washington and Central European nations and refused to let NATO give a Membership Action Plan to Georgia and Ukraine. The issue will be revisited in December, with France and Germany even more convinced that the timing is wrong.

[ 26 August 2008: Message edited by: George Victor ]