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Topic: Economists' Predictions of Olympic Medal Count

Sven
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Babbler # 9972

posted 12 August 2008 10:36 AM

Some economists have made predictions of final medal counts based on several non-athletic factors (size of country, degree of economic development, location of Olympics [home country advantage], etc.).

Those pre-Olympic predictions indicated the Chinese would dominate the gold medal count and would likely win the overall medal count (and those predictions are proving correct--especially on the gold medals).

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Briguy
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 1885

posted 12 August 2008 11:34 AM

Were the best drug plans part of the equation?

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Sven
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9972

posted 12 August 2008 11:42 AM

quote:
Originally posted by Briguy:
Were the best drug plans part of the equation?

Well, if you mean "best prescription drug plans", no. Otherwise, Canada would have more than zero medals!

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Briguy
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 1885

posted 13 August 2008 04:58 AM

Well, from past Olympics we know that the best doctors produce the best results. It looks like China has surpassed the US in hidden doping technology, at this early stage of the games. I suspect the loss of Balco was enough of a blow to relegate the US to world #2, but we'll see if another lab has filled their spot since 2003.

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Fidel
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Babbler # 5594

posted 13 August 2008 07:43 PM

quote:
Originally posted by Briguy:
Well, from past Olympics we know that the best doctors produce the best results.

I think Canada could catch up on medal count with those former Central Asian Soviet countries with half our population on average in 2010 come winter Olympics. Yes, Canadian curling and ice water polo teams are dominated by doctors and dentist and bratty upper-middle classy types. But an entire country looks to our silver spooners to make it respectable. In 2010. Just you wait. Until 2010. Canada is NOT an underperforming northern colony!!! The silver spooners will hold up their end of the bargain for pride and glory sake.

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Sven
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9972

posted 13 August 2008 09:00 PM

quote:
Originally posted by Fidel:
I think Canada could catch up on medal count

What I don't understand is that in the 1984 Olympics, Canada tallied:

Gold: 10 medals
Silver: 18 medals
Bronze: 16 medals
Total: 44 medals

We are nearly half-way through the Bejing Olympics and Canada has:

Gold: Zero
Silver: Zero
Bronze: Zero

What's going on with that?

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West Coast Greeny
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 6874

posted 13 August 2008 09:18 PM

Well for one thing Sven, the entire Soviet bloc boycotted those particular games. For another, many emerging countries, such as China and South Korea, simply have more money to throw into developing athletes than they used to.

In one sentence, the games are more competitive. There has been a --- disproportionate level of chokage from the team this year, but we're bound to win a few medals in any event involving a paddle (except ping-pong).

I'm not to worried about it, as long as we don't lose in hockey in 2010.

Personally, I find the X-Games far more entertaining. More focus on the daring of individual athletes, and not on national performance.

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Sven
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9972

posted 13 August 2008 09:25 PM

quote:
Originally posted by West Coast Greeny:
For another, many emerging countries, such as China and South Korea, simply have more money to throw into developing athletes than they used to.

South Korea's performance, more than any other country, has had the most impressive overall performance. Also, Cuba has done quite well (G:0, S:2, B:2) for a very small and poor country.

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MCunningBC
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14903

posted 13 August 2008 09:36 PM

Not to change the subject, but if the Canadian performance doesn't turn the corner soon, and we finish with an unexpectedly low medal count, I think any appetite the Tories would have for a Fall or Spring election would be gone. No Govt want's to face the electorate when the country has just faced international humiliation.

From: BC | Registered: Jan 2008 | IP: Logged

BetterRed
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11865

posted 13 August 2008 09:39 PM

quote:
Originally posted by Sven:
South Korea's performance, more than any other country, has had the most impressive overall performance. Also, Cuba has done quite well (G:0, S:2, B:2) for a very small and poor country.

Hooray!
All threads lead to Cuba!

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Sven
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9972

posted 13 August 2008 09:42 PM

quote:
Originally posted by BetterRed:
Hooray!
All threads lead to Cuba!

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M. Spector
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 8273

posted 13 August 2008 09:43 PM

quote:
Originally posted by MCunningBC:
No Govt want's to face the electorate when the country has just faced international humiliation.

Oh, yes, it's going to take years for our bruised national pride to recover - and we're going to blame it all on Harper!

Get a frikkin' grip, dude.

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Sven
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9972

posted 13 August 2008 09:46 PM

quote:
Originally posted by M. Spector:
Oh, yes, it's going to take years for our bruised national pride to recover - and we're going to blame it all on Harper!

Well, maybe Harper needs to suit up in one of those funky new Canadian-made swimsuits that appear to be helping all of the winning swimmers break world records!

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Fidel
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 5594

posted 13 August 2008 10:27 PM

North Korea 7 medals (10 million fewer people than Canada in a country the size of U.S. state of Mississippi)
Canada 0

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MCunningBC
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14903

posted 13 August 2008 11:00 PM

quote:
Originally posted by M. Spector:
Oh, yes, it's going to take years for our bruised national pride to recover - and we're going to blame it all on Harper!
Get a frikkin' grip, dude.

Well, if some of it doesn't stick to the Govt it will be the first time that's happened.

I am surprised, actually, that you would miss an opportunity to lay another charge at his feet.

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Briguy
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 1885

posted 14 August 2008 03:41 AM

quote:
Originally posted by Sven:
What I don't understand is that in the 1984 Olympics, Canada tallied:
Gold: 10 medals
Silver: 18 medals
Bronze: 16 medals
Total: 44 medals
We are nearly half-way through the Bejing Olympics and Canada has:
Gold: Zero
Silver: Zero
Bronze: Zero
What's going on with that?

Fewer racehorses, if you know what I mean.

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Sven
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9972

posted 14 August 2008 05:57 AM

quote:
Originally posted by Fidel:
North Korea 7 medals (10 million fewer people than Canada in a country the size of U.S. state of Mississippi)
Canada 0

Population is only one factor. If relative population was the principal factor, China (34 medals) would have about four times as many medals as the US (33 medals) and India (1 medal) would have over three times as many medals as the US.

ETA: The link in the OP gives a good description of the several factors that drive medal counts.

[ 14 August 2008: Message edited by: Sven ]

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Fidel
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 5594

posted 14 August 2008 11:30 AM

quote:
Originally posted by Sven:
Population is only one factor.

Canada is also the second largest country in the world with unparalleled natural resource wealth being siphoned off to corporate America. And even with near dollar parity, Canadians are still paying anywhere from 20 to 30 percent more for the same consumer products.

What does this have to do with Canada's dearth of Olympic medals at Beijing? A very old Chinese proverb says that wherever the military is, prices are high. And Canada is situated next door to the largest military in world history.

From: Viva La Revolución | Registered: Apr 2004 | IP: Logged

Sven
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9972

posted 14 August 2008 11:37 AM

quote:
Originally posted by Fidel:
Canada is also the second largest country in the world with unparalleled natural resource wealth being siphoned off to corporate America. And even with near dollar parity, Canadians are still paying anywhere from 20 to 30 percent more for the same consumer products.
What does this have to do with Canada's dearth of Olympic medals at Beijing? A very old Chinese proverb says that wherever the military is, prices are high. And Canada is situated next door to the largest military in world history.

The answer to the bold/italicized question is: NOTHING.

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Fidel
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 5594

posted 14 August 2008 11:43 AM

Amateur athletes in Canada have to endure a high cost of living like everyone else. We have too many kids in this country who can't afford to play our national sport.

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Michelle
Moderator
Babbler # 560

posted 14 August 2008 11:56 AM

quote:
Originally posted by Sven:
Well, if you mean "best prescription drug plans", no. Otherwise, Canada would have more than zero medals!

Why? We don't have universal pharmacare in Canada.

[ 14 August 2008: Message edited by: Michelle ]

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Fidel
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 5594

posted 14 August 2008 12:30 PM

Maybe we need more financial services and profitable banking monopolies, and to step up the massive amounts of energy and fossil fuels exports to the U.S. so they can afford well-funded amateur sports programs.

I'll bet the kids in China and Cuba aren't having to sell chocolate bars, work the McNight shift, or beg corporate sponsors for money to pay ridiculous fees for time at the sportsplex, expensive equipment, and the right to enjoy life in general. But hey, kids in Canada at least enjoy the right to pay through the nose texting one another with messages like "Huh?" "mall-4pm", "CeeU" and "l8r"

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Briguy
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 1885

posted 25 August 2008 04:45 AM

One of Canada's celebrated Gold Medalists was kicked out of the past two Olympic competitions for doping. Our doctors have obviously improved since the Ben Johnson scandal, given that this Olympics is one of Canada's most successful ever.

From: No one is arguing that we should run the space program based on Physics 101. | Registered: Nov 2001 | IP: Logged

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