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GLASGOW — Voters in Scotland went to the polls on Thursday for a parliamentary election that Gordon Brown's Labour Party is expected to win, but which could dramatically dent the prime minister's standing if it is lost.

Opinion polls predict Labour will hang on to the seat in Glasgow, Britain's third-largest city, despite a strong push by the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP).

Even if it retains the traditional Labour seat, the party's majority is likely to be greatly reduced, pollsters say, as disaffection with Mr. Brown's leadership grows.

Since succeeding Tony Blair 13 months ago, Mr. Brown has seen his popularity slump, dented by the credit crisis, which has hit economic growth and sent house prices sliding, and a sense that his serious style has failed to connect with voters.

Mr. Brown, who is Scottish, has not visited Glasgow East to campaign for Labour candidate Margaret Curran, drawing SNP jibes that he is an electoral liability for Labour.

The by-election is being held after the Labour incumbent stepped down due to ill health.

After stinging defeats in elections to local councils and for two parliamentary seats, Labour lags the opposition Conservatives by up to 20 points in national opinion polls.

That has raised Conservative hopes of ending more than 11 years of Labour rule at the next parliamentary election, which Mr. Brown must call by May 2010.

Jean Watt, a retired Glasgow East resident, said she thought Labour was losing its grip and she hoped for an SNP victory.

"I want to frighten Labour a bit. I would like the SNP to win, but I'm not voting for independence or separation (of Scotland from Britain)," she said.

Chris Logie, an 18-year-old student voting for the first time, said he did not feel Labour was right for the area.

"I think an independent Scotland would be better. I'm voting for the SNP," he said.

A drastic slide in support for Labour in once "safe" areas such as Glasgow East would not bode well for the party at the election.

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Gordon Brown suffered a devastating blow early today as Labour crashed to defeat in the Glasgow East by-election.

The former Labour stronghold – previously the party's 25th safest seat in Britain – was captured by the Scottish National Party with a massive swing of 24 per cent. The SNP's John Mason triumphed with 11,277 votes, a hair's breadth ahead of Labour's Margaret Curran on 10,912 votes, a majority of just 365. The margin of the victory was so close that a partial recount of the votes took place before the result was declared just before 2.30am. The Tories, who came a distant third with 1,639 votes, and the Liberal Democrats, who were fourth with 915 votes, were squeezed by the SNP-Labour battle.

Labour had held Glasgow East at the previous election with an overwhelming majority of 13,507 and the support of more than 60 per cent of voters. The result will reignite pressure on Mr Brown to step down as Prime Minister or risk leading the party to disaster at the next election.

The set-back came despite a massive drive by the Government to hold on to the heavily working-class constituency, which had returned a Labour MP since the Second World War.

It brings the parliamentary year to a miserable end for Mr Brown, who has presided over a collapse in Labour support and seen the party hammered in by-elections and local council contests. The Prime Minister faces a stormy meeting of Labour's policy forum in Warwick today, where union leaders are bound to renew criticism of his leadership.

The defeat means Mr Brown faces the real threat of an attempt by senior Labour figures to force him out of office as alarm intensifies over the party's plight. Before the Glasgow East result was announced, MPs were already speculating that the Cabinet Ministers David Miliband, Jack Straw, Alan Johnson or James Purnell could replace him.

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The SNP has pulled off a stunning by-election victory by winning Glasgow East, one of Labour's safest seats.

The Nationalists overturned a Labour majority of 13,507 to win by only 365 votes with a swing of 22.54%.

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