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Author Topic: Canadian Real Estate could Plunge.
highryder
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posted 21 October 2008 12:19 PM      Profile for highryder     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/09/08/bc-080908-real-estate-study-ubc.html?ref=patrick.net

Affordable housing in other words


From: mooseville | Registered: Sep 2008  |  IP: Logged
Doug
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posted 21 October 2008 08:07 PM      Profile for Doug   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Here's hoping, I would like to afford a condo that is larger than a closet.

Oh shoot, I read the article..."except Toronto and Edmonton".

[ 21 October 2008: Message edited by: Doug ]


From: Toronto, Canada | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
NorthReport
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posted 21 October 2008 08:10 PM      Profile for NorthReport     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The lead article was written September 8th, and the sell-off has already begun.
From: From sea to sea to sea | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
aka Mycroft
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posted 21 October 2008 08:10 PM      Profile for aka Mycroft     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The problem of course is that a) people who own their homes will end up losing a lot of their investment and b) people with mortgages could well end up with a mortgages that are worth more than the house.
From: Toronto | Registered: Aug 2004  |  IP: Logged
martin dufresne
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posted 21 October 2008 08:47 PM      Profile for martin dufresne   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I would add: ...and the fact that prices will diminish somewhat will only reflect the fact that people will have so much less money to buy with lost jobs & savings. So there are no opportunities down the road for individual buyers, only for developers, corporations...
From: "Words Matter" (Mackinnon) | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged
Brian White
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posted 21 October 2008 10:19 PM      Profile for Brian White   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
In BC the devellopers have stopped a bunch of projects already due to difficult financing and lack of buyers.
There is no could about it. House prices are going to fall dramatically.
There are lots of empty speculation condos in downtown victoria, pretty soon those speculators will have to sell. And thanks to the good ole 40 year mortgauge, and no money down, lots of people are in way over their heads.
quote:
Originally posted by martin dufresne:
I would add: ...and the fact that prices will diminish somewhat will only reflect the fact that people will have so much less money to buy with lost jobs & savings. So there are no opportunities down the road for individual buyers, only for developers, corporations...

From: Victoria Bc | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
Steve N
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posted 26 October 2008 04:44 PM      Profile for Steve N     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Doug:
Here's hoping, I would like to afford a condo that is larger than a closet.

Oh shoot, I read the article..."except Toronto and Edmonton".


Toronto house prices plummet 15%

quote:
Originally posted by aka Mycroft:
The problem of course is that a) people who own their homes will end up losing a lot of their investment and b) people with mortgages could well end up with a mortgages that are worth more than the house.
a) is a misunderstanding of investment principles. Over an extended period an investment will grow, but over short term it may shrink, or at least grow very slowly. You don't lose unless you sell. If you stay living in your house, you're investment will continue to grow, just not 40% a year (exagerating) like it has been the last few years.

If someone bought 2 years ago speculating and hoping to make a quick buck, then it will be a long buck instead.

If someone has owned their home for 40 years and is disappointed they didn't sell 6 months ago and make the most, that is unfortunate, but really it is like complaining you didnt buy a lottery ticket last week. You make your profit when you pull the trigger, up until then it is just a possibility.


From: Toronto | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
Toby Fourre
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posted 26 October 2008 05:09 PM      Profile for Toby Fourre        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Canadian real estate already has dropped. I think it's a matter of over building as much as anything else. That and the dimwits who watch too much American TV factor. Those are the people who hear that housing prices in Phoenix have plummeted so they panic in Vancouver. Different market.

What puzzles me more than anything is the evaporation of real estate pressure by retiring baby boomers. These people have been flooding into the Okanagan for several years and suddenly they stopped coming. The flow didn't slow down, it stopped. Where did these people go?

One answer may be that a lot of retirees bought repos in Arizona, etc. I think that many of those will have buyers' regrets. They will wake up and find themselves in the middle of abandoned suburbs with no services and no stores and still have to pay their taxes in $US.


From: Death Valley, BC | Registered: Oct 2006  |  IP: Logged
QatzelOk
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posted 01 November 2008 11:33 AM      Profile for QatzelOk        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
I think it's a matter of over building as much as anything else.

It's hard to believe with so much homelessness and so many 2-hour commutes, that there has been a problem of over-building in the cities.

I live in a housing coop, and we are preparing to buy our buildings form the city government. I am very worried about the value of our buildings crashing five minutes after we sign our mortgage.

However, I am encouraged by the fact that massive numbers of people will all be in the same situation as the members of my coop if the value of our property suddently falls.

But this latest mortgage "spectre" just reminds me of how dangerous it is to turn housing into a commodity, like diamond earings and Tang futures.


From: Montréal | Registered: Oct 2008  |  IP: Logged
Lard Tunderin' Jeezus
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posted 01 November 2008 12:53 PM      Profile for Lard Tunderin' Jeezus   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Toby Fourre:
Where did these people go?

One answer may be that a lot of retirees bought repos in Arizona, etc. I think that many of those will have buyers' regrets. They will wake up and find themselves in the middle of abandoned suburbs with no services and no stores and still have to pay their taxes in $US.


...not to mention their healthcare premiums. Even as snowbirds, they need to buy very pricey insurance to cover emergency response incidents. Of course, for chronic illness they'll just fly home to the land where they no longer contribute much to let us all help them out.

From: ... | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
New to New West
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posted 01 November 2008 03:28 PM      Profile for New to New West     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
"Those are the people who hear that housing prices in Phoenix have plummeted so they panic in Vancouver. Different market."

I know people in real estate in Vancouver and they are suffering. Nothing is selling, and prices are plummeting faster than the media is telling us.

This is a full blown crash, my friends.

The regional markets are not exactly the same, but there many similarities and the underlying problems exist all over most of North America.
Its just a questions of WHEN things break down, and Vancouver is about two years behind the US.

There is good reason to panic.


From: New Westminster | Registered: Oct 2008  |  IP: Logged
dr anonymous
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posted 01 November 2008 04:15 PM      Profile for dr anonymous     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
If you live in a wealthy neighbourhood dont panic(I doubt anyone from those areas will panic anyways). Rosedale, Forest Hills, Leaside etc... are all booming still and will continue to boom. If you bought a house out of the city ya you might sweat for awhile until the next overall boom hits.

Dont fall for the old 'the sky is falling ' crap that the rich and powerful like to pull on the poor and average. Sit on your house until things pick up. If you were planning on selling now or over the next 2 years outside of the affluent areas. Ya you will not get as high of offers.

I love when the uneducated puppets jump when the pretend puppetmaster pulls their strings.


From: toronto | Registered: Apr 2008  |  IP: Logged
New to New West
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posted 01 November 2008 04:24 PM      Profile for New to New West     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
People who own outright or have small mortgages, and never bought as an investment anyhow, have no need to worry. That's true, they can ignore everything for the short term.

BUT what about everyone who has bought in the last three years. They are screwed if they have to sell in the near future. At least, here in Vancouver. That's a lot of young families in trouble if anyone loses a job.


From: New Westminster | Registered: Oct 2008  |  IP: Logged
Trexx
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posted 02 November 2008 08:11 PM      Profile for Trexx     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Countries are bailing out their national banks left right and center.
The IMF is bailing out entire countries left right and center.

Gordon Brown jets off to Saudi to inform the middle east that the IMF is going to run out of money very quickly indeeed.
Then entire countries will fail.
And then the middle east will not be selling anybody much oil.
And so the cash rich middle eastern countries need to lend the IMF a few hundred billion.

And people are surprised property values are dropping?

It just could be the right time to buy up the back forty and get a few chickens and goats and a milch cow.
Sure hope not


From: canada | Registered: Oct 2008  |  IP: Logged
remind
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posted 02 November 2008 09:02 PM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
There is only 1 country that needs to collapse, the USA. It has 3 trillion dollars, at least, in NSF cheques, aka the US dollar, littering the world's financial markets. At this point one does not know whether to thank them for causing capitalism to collapse, or scream about ruined lives and future.

Most Americans have yet to feel these costs. The price in blood has been paid by our voluntary military and by hired contractors. The price in treasure has, in a sense, been financed entirely by borrowing. Taxes have not been raised to pay for it - in fact, taxes on the rich have actually fallen. Deficit spending gives the illusion that the laws of economics can be repealed, that we can have both guns and butter. But of course the laws are not repealed. The costs of the war are real even if they have been deferred, possibly to another generation.


From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
thorin_bane
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posted 03 November 2008 01:23 AM      Profile for thorin_bane     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I bought my house almost 8 years ago. Up until 2 years ago it had risen all of 10% in 6 years while our city was supposedly booming. However the market crashed in Windsor 2 years ago and has been getting worse ever since, My house is now worse less than I paid for it 8 years ago. I am on 'temporary lay off' so if we don't get our call back in january I will have to sell the house and basically be debt free by the time everthing is said and done(No house,but no debts, or much in savings. Starting from scratch all over again). Which really blows for the 8 years you commit to mortgage payments. I would have been better to rent during this time and would have had the same debt free(ness) with less worrying. Yet I am so hoping that things get even worse so we can ALL start EVERYTHING over from scratch not just all the people at the bottom.
We need a revolution. The rich got us into this with being greedy pigs, yet we are going to pay again for their faults...yeah yeah a few of them are getting a nibble in the bum, but that is nothing compared to the arm and leg severing people in the bottom are taking.

From: Looking at the despair of Detroit from across the river! | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
remind
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posted 03 November 2008 03:49 PM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by thorin_bane:
I bought my house almost 8 years ago. Up until 2 years ago it had risen all of 10% in 6 years while our city was supposedly booming. However the market crashed in Windsor 2 years ago and has been getting worse ever since, My house is now worse less than I paid for it 8 years ago. I am on 'temporary lay off' so if we don't get our call back in january I will have to sell the house and basically be debt free by the time everthing is said and done(No house,but no debts, or much in savings. Starting from scratch all over again). Which really blows for the 8 years you commit to mortgage payments. I would have been better to rent during this time and would have had the same debt free(ness) with less worrying. Yet I am so hoping that things get even worse so we can ALL start EVERYTHING over from scratch not just all the people at the bottom.
We need a revolution. The rich got us into this with being greedy pigs, yet we are going to pay again for their faults...yeah yeah a few of them are getting a nibble in the bum, but that is nothing compared to the arm and leg severing people in the bottom are taking.

Boy, do I hear you thorin, we are in much the same boat, waiting for call backs too. Only at present we would make a bit off of our house, after mortgage debt is paid, but not much. Perhaps not even enough to move our stuff to a larger centre and pay damage deposit and rent.

And yes, we the poor again pay for the rich to get richer, and why do more working poor not realize this? There won't be any changes until they do! Moreover, I think the acadamia and middle civil servants play a large part in keeping the status quo!


From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
dr anonymous
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posted 03 November 2008 05:36 PM      Profile for dr anonymous     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Up until 2 years ago it had risen all of 10% in 6 years while our city was supposedly booming--

Again location is always key. Our house has went from $586,000 3 yrs ago (when we bought it) to over $850,000 present day. So the boom has been there but again location is vital.

Where is your home located? %10 in 6 yrs is terrible. Jane/Finch has probably went up higher than that.

I feel for ya dont get me wrong. We are all being ripped off by big brother. We need to stand up and challenge them.

But will we?? Only if it doesnt require thinking or work.


From: toronto | Registered: Apr 2008  |  IP: Logged
George Victor
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posted 04 November 2008 03:11 AM      Profile for George Victor        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Historically, and again today, hope goes West young man, goes West. And when the H2 S and climate gets a little hard to handle, c'mon back. It's going to be increasingly all about location, location, location.

--------------------------------------------

quote:

It just could be the right time to buy up the back forty and get a few chickens and goats and a milch cow.
Sure hope not



Just 100 years ago, people could benefit from housing these benevolent life forms at the back end of their town lots in some smaller communities.

[ 04 November 2008: Message edited by: George Victor ]


From: Cambridge, ON | Registered: Oct 2007  |  IP: Logged
Sean in Ottawa
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posted 04 November 2008 08:58 AM      Profile for Sean in Ottawa     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by dr anonymous:

Dont fall for the old 'the sky is falling ' crap that the rich and powerful like to pull on the poor and average. Sit on your house until things pick up. If you were planning on selling now or over the next 2 years outside of the affluent areas. Ya you will not get as high of offers.

I love when the uneducated puppets jump when the pretend puppetmaster pulls their strings.


Except some people may need to refinance and it makes it hard if you owe more to the bank than your home is worth-- with 5% down for mortgages there are a few in that situation.


From: Ottawa | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
dr anonymous
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posted 04 November 2008 12:15 PM      Profile for dr anonymous     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The best advice anyone can receive about buying a house/condo is dont do it with less than 25% down. People are in such a rush to be perceived as big shots. When a person buys a home with %5 or zero down they're begging for trouble. Wait a few years and save up and protect yourself.

Ask yourself this. Who the hell buys a house with %5 down or less?


From: toronto | Registered: Apr 2008  |  IP: Logged
thorin_bane
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posted 04 November 2008 01:27 PM      Profile for thorin_bane     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by dr anonymous:
The best advice anyone can receive about buying a house/condo is dont do it with less than 25% down. People are in such a rush to be perceived as big shots. When a person buys a home with %5 or zero down they're begging for trouble. Wait a few years and save up and protect yourself.

Ask yourself this. Who the hell buys a house with %5 down or less?



people who don't live at home and are tired of paying high rent during boom times when getting a mortgage is doable as long as your job and the housing market don't tank at the same time. Just so happens that only happens in depressions..guess what?

From: Looking at the despair of Detroit from across the river! | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
DrConway
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posted 08 November 2008 09:33 PM      Profile for DrConway     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by aka Mycroft:
The problem of course is that a) people who own their homes will end up losing a lot of their investment and b) people with mortgages could well end up with a mortgages that are worth more than the house.

Oh, I'm supposed to feel real sorry for property speculators and people who can actually afford a $500,000 house. My heart bleeds. Really, it does.


From: You shall not side with the great against the powerless. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged

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