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Author Topic: Gas Prices Clobber McMansions
Agent 204
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posted 27 June 2008 05:11 AM      Profile for Agent 204   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I hear the sound of the world's smallest violin playing:
quote:
Sky-high gasoline prices aren't just raising the cost of Eugene Marino's 120-mile (193-kilometer) round-trip to his job in the Washington area. They're reducing his wealth, too.

House prices in his rural subdivision beyond the Blue Ridge Mountains in Charles Town, West Virginia, have plunged as commuting expenses have soared. A four-bedroom home down the street from his is listed for $239,000, after selling new for $360,000 five years ago.



From here, via iTulip.com.

From: home of the Guess Who | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
Boom Boom
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posted 27 June 2008 06:58 AM      Profile for Boom Boom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Two nights ago on The National, Peter Mansbridge hosted a special on rising energy costs, and especially the price of gas for vehicles. One of the persons in Mansbridge's piece said it is inevitable now that folks in the suburbs will begin moving back to the city because it is simply untenable to drive great distances to work and back. He predicted there will be a huge exodus to public transportation - which greatly needs to be improved, including a return to greater reliance on rail - and motor vehicles will simply be sold off, parked and never used again, or just used for very occasional trips. The increasingly high cost of aviation fuel will make air travel viable only for the very rich in the future.

I think we'll see a small exodus from Kemptville, Smith's Falls, and Merrickville to Ottawa where a small segment of those populations work in federal government offices. I have a relative who made that insane drive to Ottawa and back from Merrickville five days a week. Ridiculous.


From: Make the rich pay! | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
scooter
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posted 27 June 2008 08:01 AM      Profile for scooter     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
My big worry is not for the rich first world countries but for the poorer countries that subsidize the price of gasoline and diesel.

For example Malaysia spent $14 billion last year to reduce fuel prices. That is 3.9% of their 2007 GDP, $1279 USD for every employed person, or nearly half of the foreign aid they received.

Venezuela, were most people can't afford a car, lets the rich buy their gasoline at less then $0.12 per litre.

For those who are curious 1 barrel of oil produces 50 to 75L of gasoline depending on the refinery.


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Boom Boom
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posted 27 June 2008 08:14 AM      Profile for Boom Boom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
On that episode of The National that I mentioned, it was reported that gas is subsidized by the government of Venezuela so it sells at 25 cents a gallon; and subsidized by the government of Saudi Arabia where it sells there for fifty cents a gallon.
From: Make the rich pay! | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
al-Qa'bong
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posted 27 June 2008 09:30 AM      Profile for al-Qa'bong   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
A couple of years ago I saw on TV an expert (or a reasonable facsimile thereof) on urban development say that these new subdivisions will be slums ringing each city in 10-20 years.

He argued that today's owners soon won't be able to afford their McMansions any more, and that they'll be booted out, making room for multiple families renting parts of each house. Hmm, just like the Zhivago mansion...


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Frustrated Mess
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posted 27 June 2008 09:33 AM      Profile for Frustrated Mess   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Except there is very little transit in McMansionville so how why would the poor go out there?
From: doom without the gloom | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
al-Qa'bong
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posted 27 June 2008 09:45 AM      Profile for al-Qa'bong   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Do the poor commute from the slums they're in now?

Guess who'll be doing their shopping in the big box stores in the near future? I'd buy Dollarama stock now if I were so inclined.


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ElizaQ
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posted 27 June 2008 10:47 AM      Profile for ElizaQ     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Funnily enough I think I might be seeing this change play out just down the road from us. I live in a rural area. That's really cottagy with some big 'cottages' (actually more like mchouses) in the area. Very beautiful and very desirable. Lake views and everything. An old farmstead went up for sale last year (one of the last in the area) and I checked it out to see how much land like that was going for. I discovered that it had be already divided up for development into about 20 or so estate sized lots. The owners of course wanting to cash in so to speak and make more money then if it was just sold as a farm unit.
Beyond the fact that I was urked to see perfectly decent agricultural land go the big house/cottage route I was interested to see what happens with it. It's still up for sale and according to a real estate agent there has been no real interest in it either. They couldn't understand why either. They said that a couple of years ago that sort of land would have been snapped up by a developer within a month or so, because it's rare around here for that to happen and especially for that to happen in a location so close to a lake. It's a dream piece of property.

I asked them whether or not they thought that maybe the market was changing because of things like high gas prices, energy costs and the uncertainty around the economic viability with transportation as well as the salability of those estate type houses. The person looked at me blankly and said...um..no that's crazy, that will never happen in Canada.

Of course there's no way that I actually know why it's not selling, but I do wonder. There have been some really nice big houses up for sale around here that have been taking forever to sell or end up selling after the prices are reduced. This apparently isn't what it's been like in years past. I hear more conversations about energy and people complaining about how much it costs to heat and run their big houses and of course how gas prices are hitting their pocket book.

I guess I will continue to watch and see if as the real estate agent says, 'its just one of those wierd blips' or whether or not it's an actual tread.


From: Eastern Lakes | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
Frustrated Mess
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posted 27 June 2008 10:55 AM      Profile for Frustrated Mess   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Do the poor commute from the slums they're in now?

They have transit and they can walk for any basics they might need. If you live in a city, you will find there is a convenience store every few blocks or so (few grocery stores though).

In McMansionville one must drive everywhere and there is precious little in the way of transit. One couldn't even, in most cases, walk to a dollar store. And besides, those energy costs pushing the nice white people back into the urban core, they will take care of the dollar stores too. Invest in something else. Like steam rail.


From: doom without the gloom | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
ElizaQ
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posted 27 June 2008 11:03 AM      Profile for ElizaQ     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Frustrated Mess:

They have transit and they can walk for any basics they might need. If you live in a city, you will find there is a convenience store every few blocks or so (few grocery stores though).

In McMansionville one must drive everywhere and there is precious little in the way of transit. One couldn't even, in most cases, walk to a dollar store. And besides, those energy costs pushing the nice white people back into the urban core, they will take care of the dollar stores too. Invest in something else. Like steam rail.


I think electric bikes/scooters and trikes might also be a good investment. I'm getting one this summer and thought that I'd likely be a bit an annomoly around here. So far I've seen three on the highway and the bike shop guy I talked to says the rise in interest in them has been quite surprising.


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Frustrated Mess
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posted 27 June 2008 11:05 AM      Profile for Frustrated Mess   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I am seeing lots of them.
From: doom without the gloom | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
ElizaQ
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posted 27 June 2008 11:20 AM      Profile for ElizaQ     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Oh and sorry this is slightly off topic but draft horse and companies that produce horse drawn farm equipment also may be one of those in low investments right now. They're apparently seeing a rise in business as well. Been hearing about this all over the place. Here's one article.
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/mostread/s_565740.html

From: Eastern Lakes | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
Frustrated Mess
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posted 27 June 2008 11:22 AM      Profile for Frustrated Mess   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
And Mules.
From: doom without the gloom | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
ElizaQ
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posted 27 June 2008 11:32 AM      Profile for ElizaQ     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I wonder if buggy and wagons makers may be a good bet as well. We're seriously considering that as an option. I'm actually crunching numbers and looking at the pros and cons for our particular situation. Not that I think that we're suddenly going to go back to total horse and buggy days but I can potentially see those coming back into the transportation mix in a minor form as well.
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Boom Boom
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posted 27 June 2008 11:44 AM      Profile for Boom Boom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The Amish still use these things, don't they?


From: Make the rich pay! | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
ElizaQ
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posted 27 June 2008 12:03 PM      Profile for ElizaQ     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Boom Boom:
[qb]The Amish still use these things, don't they?


Yes of course. How could I forget. *grin* I meant with more non-amish/mennonite peeps of course. It's interesting actually since I've been looking into it. With gas prices where they are now and where they are predicted to be an when you calculate food, medical and all that stuff it is a lot less them us getting a new car and paying for gas. Plus for us we'd also get the benefit of the manure and their mowing capabilities which cuts costs in other places.
The biggest problem I've run into though, in this area, is the lack of a local 'blacksmith' to keep them shoed and that would entail long drives, in a trailer and thusly paying for the gas and having to have a vehicle or pay for a vehicle to take them. Then there is the calculation of how much greenhouse gases that the horses produce as well as for the things they need vs. the same drive in a car.

Of course there are other cons like you have to take car of them every day unlike a car which you can just leave sitting in the driveway. It's an interesting exercise though in exploring the possibility and working through the whole 'system' on a wholistic level to see whether or not it is truly 'greener' in both material and environmental costs, but that's just me, I'm a geek that way.

[ 27 June 2008: Message edited by: ElizaQ ]


From: Eastern Lakes | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
scooter
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posted 27 June 2008 01:03 PM      Profile for scooter     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by ElizaQ:
Oh and sorry this is slightly off topic but draft horse and companies that produce horse drawn farm equipment also may be one of those in low investments right now.

That would turn into a huge public health nightmare. Read up on what Toronto was like when the horse ruled the road. "Yuck" comes to mind.

High fuel prices will mean the end of rural living.

I'm already seeing it on Vancouver Island were the rural pickup truck is nearly impossible to sell.


From: High River | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Timebandit
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posted 27 June 2008 01:06 PM      Profile for Timebandit     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I wonder why these people complaining about their heating bills don't convert to geothermal... I suspect the initial outlay of cash seems prohibitive, but let's face it, gas isn't going to go down in price. Geothermal might be worth the investment.

Me, I'm glad I live in one of the few walking neighborhoods in this city.


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ElizaQ
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posted 27 June 2008 01:15 PM      Profile for ElizaQ     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Timebandit:
I wonder why these people complaining about their heating bills don't convert to geothermal... I suspect the initial outlay of cash seems prohibitive, but let's face it, gas isn't going to go down in price. Geothermal might be worth the investment.

Me, I'm glad I live in one of the few walking neighborhoods in this city.


My parents are likely going that route. They did the figuring for their situation, they're on oil now, and it will pay for itself in 3 years. They are able to to get financing for it and the savings monthly in the winter break even with the monthly payments, plus you get air conditioning in the summer and it also preheats water to about 70%. There's also a 7000-8000 dollar govie rebate right now which knocks off about a third of the cost.
I wish we could afford to go that way but our situation both house, land and finance wise is different and it would cost us more to put in.


From: Eastern Lakes | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
ElizaQ
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posted 27 June 2008 01:36 PM      Profile for ElizaQ     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by scooter:

That would turn into a huge public health nightmare. Read up on what Toronto was like when the horse ruled the road. "Yuck" comes to mind.

High fuel prices will mean the end of rural living.

I'm already seeing it on Vancouver Island were the rural pickup truck is nearly impossible to sell.


Yes but we're not talking about a city or a high density area like Toronto. That would be silly. Not talking likely about huge numbers either as I said I can't see everyone suddenly going that route and the horse ruling the road again like it did in the past. I can see it happening in smaller numbers, in more rural areas, like it already does. Take a drive down HWY 86 near Elmira on Sunday morning at about 9:20 am. More buggies then cars by far and it's hysterical to watch them all passing each other.

I also don't think that high gas prices will be the death of rural living. I think it will change it's character and rejig it a lot but your just as likely to see the commuter set moving out and different set of people moving in who want things like places where they can grow their own food. I think there will be a more localizing of economies for a lot of things, food just being one of them.
It's more then likely that we're going to see that outlying rural areas supplying the higher density areas with more locally produced goods. It's already happening in a small sense where I live with food and some local craftsman have seen a rise in demand for things they make as well. I know a basketmaker who is permenantly on back order now, with her best seller being shopping baskets.


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Boom Boom
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posted 27 June 2008 01:47 PM      Profile for Boom Boom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
My summer vehicles are a Mazda truck and a CCM bicycle, my winter vehicle is a Bombardier snowmobile (we only have two seasons here, winter and summer). With gas at $1.70/liter here, I don't use either motorized vehicle very much. I stay at home a lot, working the gardens all summer, and shovelling snow the other six months of the year.
From: Make the rich pay! | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
ElizaQ
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posted 27 June 2008 01:58 PM      Profile for ElizaQ     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Boom Boom:
My summer vehicles are a Mazda truck and a CCM bicycle, my winter vehicle is a Bombardier snowmobile (we only have two seasons here, winter and summer). With gas at $1.70/liter here, I don't use either motorized vehicle very much. I stay at home a lot, working the gardens all summer, and shovelling snow the other six months of the year.

I stay home too though right now it's because I have no transport whatsoever most days and in most cases for several days at a time. Our second car died and we decided to not bother getting it fixed or get a new one. Mostly because of gas prices. It's been an interesting experience considering I came from the city and for years was used to being able to get almost anywhere, with the only restriction being the bus schedule and routes. Thank goodness for the internet, is all I can say. I have yet to feel like I'm out of touch or really housebound. I also have a neighbor who will sometimes just drop by when she's going to town to see if I need anything or want to tag along and who I can call in an emergency. It might sound cliche but I do feel that that high gas prices may indirectly bring more people together in that manner as people adjust. I wouldn't talk to her as much if I had a car. I mean why drive 3 cars into town when people can get together for a shopping day and split the cost. Things like that. I can't see that as necessarily a bad thing.


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al-Qa'bong
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posted 27 June 2008 02:06 PM      Profile for al-Qa'bong   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
High fuel prices will mean the end of rural living.

Actually, most of the population of Canada lived in rural areas before the introduction of the horseless carriage. Who knows, maybe cities will become unviable (is that a word?) in the future and people will have to move to the country.


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jrootham
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posted 27 June 2008 02:15 PM      Profile for jrootham     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Almost, it's spelled inviable, but you have the effects of energy shortages backwards. City residents use less energy than rural residents. If cities become inviable for any reason the consequence will be mass human die off.
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500_Apples
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posted 27 June 2008 02:31 PM      Profile for 500_Apples   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by al-Qa'bong:

Actually, most of the population of Canada lived in rural areas before the introduction of the horseless carriage. Who knows, maybe cities will become unviable (is that a word?) in the future and people will have to move to the country.


Errr guys, the structural changes you refer to would take long-term change.

The Toyota Prius was a small fraction of one company's research budget for a small number of years and it gets double the fuel efficiency of most cars.

The Chevy Volt is coming out in a few years, it's planned to have those 50 miles/gallon.... after being able to drive 40 miles just from the plug in charge.

Cars are not inherently evil, and they will adapt.


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ElizaQ
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posted 27 June 2008 02:39 PM      Profile for ElizaQ     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by jrootham:
Almost, it's spelled inviable, but you have the effects of energy shortages backwards. City residents use less energy than rural residents. If cities become inviable for any reason the consequence will be mass human die off.

Do you have any links or info off hand about how that is calculated? I'm interested in looking at that more closely as it's pertinent to a project I'm working on.


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jrootham
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posted 27 June 2008 02:46 PM      Profile for jrootham     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
No details or links offhand.

I've been operating under that analysis for so long I have no connection to the original sources.

OTOH it shouldn't be hard to work up.

Run the footprint calculations for reasonable differences between urban and rural dwellers.

Urban Studies papers should be around.


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Agent 204
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posted 27 June 2008 02:59 PM      Profile for Agent 204   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I don't have any figures either, but here's a couple of things that I believe to be true:

- Rural people drive more. If the next door neighbour is a kilometre away, most people are not likely to walk over to visit.
-Economies of scale for transportation of goods. Not only do you probably drive to the store to pick up your groceries, the trucks that take the groceries there in the first place have to make a special trip rather than stopping at a series of stores.

So yeah, I'm inclined to believe this claim.


From: home of the Guess Who | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
Michelle
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posted 27 June 2008 03:18 PM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Boom Boom:
I think we'll see a small exodus from Kemptville, Smith's Falls, and Merrickville to Ottawa where a small segment of those populations work in federal government offices. I have a relative who made that insane drive to Ottawa and back from Merrickville five days a week. Ridiculous.

Either that, or there will be more political will to build better public transportation (such as trains that stop in various suburbs and exurbs outside of metropolitan centres.


From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Agent 204
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posted 27 June 2008 03:32 PM      Profile for Agent 204   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I've heard a rather ambitious suggestion to put monorail tracks on either side of the 401, going in opposite directions. Seems a bit much, really, given that regular railways could probably be built more quickly and cheaply... and as far as clearing a path for the tracks goes, the exodus from the exurbs could simplify matters considerably- expropriation of those McMansions will likely become a lot cheaper.

I imagine that regular railway tracks are cheaper to maintain, too, though I could be wrong about that.

[ 27 June 2008: Message edited by: Agent 204 ]


From: home of the Guess Who | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
Frustrated Mess
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posted 27 June 2008 04:30 PM      Profile for Frustrated Mess   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
My better half predicted this:

quote:
Guy Trevor lost his job as an interior designer when the sector contracted thanks to the foreclosure crisis. With his furniture sold and his belongings in storage, he now lives in his car, spending the nights in one of the 12 gated car parks in Santa Barbara
Emphasis mine.


Credit crunch forces US middle classes to live in their cars - and, oddly, a story not in the North American corporate press.


From: doom without the gloom | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
scooter
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posted 28 June 2008 04:53 AM      Profile for scooter     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Frustrated Mess:
My better half predicted this...

Off topic. The high fuel prices did not cause the credit crunch. Poor financial skills and decisions put most Americans at risk.

From: High River | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Frustrated Mess
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posted 28 June 2008 05:08 AM      Profile for Frustrated Mess   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Poor financial skills and not deregulation of the financial markets, of course.

But high gas prices certainly is exacerbating the situation, wouldn't you agree? And what my better half predicted is that American's (and Canadians) would sooner live in their cars than give them up.


From: doom without the gloom | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Bubbles
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posted 28 June 2008 08:44 PM      Profile for Bubbles        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
City residents use less energy than rural residents.

I am not sure if that is relevant. Rural people might need more energy, but they generaly have also far more energy available then city residents. It is my impression that during times of shortages and strife one has an easier time surviving in a rural setting than an urban setting. At least that is what I gather from relatives that went through past wars.


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scooter
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posted 04 July 2008 10:47 AM      Profile for scooter     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Frustrated Mess:
But high gas prices certainly is exacerbating the situation, wouldn't you agree?

I do agree. It's amazing how dumb founded many, but not all, Americans are acting with modest fuel prices of about $1.10 per litre.

As for rural horse usage, wouldn't that lead to more of our food being used for fuel. Horse fuel that is.


From: High River | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Frustrated Mess
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posted 04 July 2008 11:19 AM      Profile for Frustrated Mess   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Horses will content themselves with grass - until some marketer convinces us all that Super Corn Horse Feed Will Get You Twice The Horse Power! Be First On Your Block To Buy Super Corn Horse Feed!
From: doom without the gloom | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
jester
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posted 04 July 2008 05:07 PM      Profile for jester        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
The biggest problem I've run into though, in this area, is the lack of a local 'blacksmith' to keep them shoed and that would entail long drives, in a trailer and thusly paying for the gas and having to have a vehicle or pay for a vehicle to take them. Then there is the calculation of how much greenhouse gases that the horses produce as well as for the things they need vs. the same drive in a car.

Do it yourself. Ranchers don't load their cayuses into trailers to have their feet maintained. Hoof care isn't that hard to do.

The biggest reason there are fewer itinerant farriers is not dealing with hooves, it is dealing with the overweight, spoiled barnyard pets attached to them plus the buckle bunny nuisances that own them.


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