quote:

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August 7 -- Georgia attacks

[Note 15.10 GMT is 18.10 local time. The first reports of shelling were late at night at 23.53 local time]

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_____________________________________________

What follows are some remarks about the timeline that Fidel posted from GlobalResearch.ca .

quote:

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August 11 09:30 -- Saakashvili signs ceasefire agreement prepared by France and Finland.

August 12 21:11 -- Saakashvili accepts the ceasefire terms signed in Moscow.

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What ceasefire terms? I thought it was claimed that an agreement was prepared by France and Finland which Saakashvili signed on the 11th?

quote:

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August 16 10:57 -- Medvedev officially signs the French-brokered peace plan.

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Oh, I see. There never was an arrangement in Moscow. Somebody just made that up, right?

WRONG! Sarcozy was in Moscow on the 12th. It's there that the 6 point plan was developed, in consultations between the French President and Russian President Medvedev. Something was signed. And the French President did a little back-and-forth, at the end of which the very same plan was agreed to by both sides.

Thing is, Russia had already rejected the draft ceasefire plan proposed by France and signed on Monday the 11th by Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili.

If this timeline can be so muddled up on something as simple as this PART of the sequence of events, then I've not got a lot of confidence in the rest of it.

[ 30 August 2008: Message edited by: N.Beltov ]

[ 30 August 2008: Message edited by: N.Beltov ]

Aug 30, 2008, 9:52 GMT
...
The onslaught had begun before Russian armoured vehicles entered ... South Ossetia....

quote:

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Originally posted by N.Beltov:

Thing is, Russia had already rejected the draft ceasefire plan proposed by France and signed on Monday the 11th by Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili.

If this timeline can be so muddled up on something as simple as this PART of the sequence of events, then I've not got a lot of confidence in the rest of it.

[ 30 August 2008: Message edited by: N.Beltov ]

---

According to Nicolai Petro, both sides agreed on basic cease fire terms on the 10th, before the arrival of foreign intermediaries. French and Finnish Foreign Ministers arrive in Tbilisi to mediate peace deal. They were merely terms of a cease fire agreed upon by both the Russians and Georgians as far as I can tell - nothing about actually signing "Sarkozy's six point back-n-forth" I don't the Russians trust Sarkozy all that much, but probably more than Saakashvili or his NATO handlers.

August 12th, Petro says Saakashvili merely "accepts the cease fire terms" signed in Moscow. Nothing about signing any binding agreements. Am I reading it wrong there? Nicolai Petro doesn't seem to be very clear either

"According to Nicolai Petro, both sides agreed on basic cease fire terms on the 10th, before the arrival of foreign intermediaries."

The big difference between the two side, near as I can make out, was that the Georgians didn't want to be constrained by a renunciation of the use of force. This was especially true in the period leading up to the attack. In hindsight, it's easy to see why they took this position.

The Russians then were in the position of having to compel the Georgians not to use force; i.e., drive them back far enough and disable them enough so that regardless of the documents agreed to, the latter couldn't inflict any more harm.

Georgia has already discovered that jabbing a big bear with a pointed stick will get your arms ripped off. I'm just saying the neocons won't be able to resist trying the same stupidity again, with some new client militarist regime.

Grow up.

Russia and Putin are no friends of freedom, justice or liberty. If you have to use Pat Buchanan as a reference you know you're scrapping the bottom of the barrel. Also get your facts right the OSCE has NOT come out and stated that Georgia was responsible. Russian media is speculating on a story that Spiegel magazine may run.

I do think one more prodding with a pointed stick by some US proxy is in the cards. Not right away, mind you. I just don't think the Americans will be able to resist the desire for mischief. They've had their own way for too long, they seem forever doomed to underestimate political factors in a conflict, and their ideologically driven politics is something they're imprisoned by. Even a "liberal" like Obama will want to "appear" tough, etc.

quote:

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Russia and Putin are no friends of freedom, justice or liberty.

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quote:

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Kokoity: We are very thankful to Russia, especially to its President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, as well as to the whole people of Russia who gave a helping hand at this hard moment.

Now we have to rebuild the devastated Ossetian towns and villages after Georgia brutally raised them to the ground. We need to build houses and restore the infrastructure of the whole of South Ossetia.

In this process Russia also holds a leading role. We are extremely grateful for all this help that Russia provides. And of course we are thankful to Russia for being the first of the international community to recognise the call for independence of the Republic of South Ossetia.

---

Wait, there's more.

quote:

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RT: Are you afraid of the further escalation of relations with Georgia?

Eduard Kokoity: You know, nobody reacts to the word “be afraid of” in South Ossetia any more. We’ve got rid of our fear long ago. We have lived in this state for 18 years now. We realize the seriousness of the situation but we are ready for any turn of events.

We are protecting our land. And the fact that a small people is struggling for independence is more of a humanitarian than a political issue. I want to address those western leaders that seek to satisfy their geopolitical interests, who say they cannot accept the fact of genocide because there has not been enough blood shed.

---

quote:

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I wonder how much more blood they want to see shed if we are already so few. How many more people do Georgian soldiers have to kill for the western leaders to be able to call it genocide?

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[ 31 August 2008: Message edited by: N.Beltov ]

quote:

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Peter Lavalle: Lewis Carroll wrote: "The time has come," the Walrus said, "To talk of many things: Of shoes--and ships--and sealing wax - of cabbages--and kings--And why the sea is boiling hot--And whether pigs have wings." Carroll was a brilliant writer and philosopher. He asked us to think differently as he put the world on its head. Russia is doing the same. The Ossetian War was Russia’s opening to free itself of hypocritical constraints. The West will not be its moral guide. And the West won’t be Russia’s partner if the rules are made by one party and forced upon the other(s).

Buckle up and try to enjoy the ride. Russia has decided its course and will not back down – it will not retreat one centimeter. The post-Cold War order is now in the past. Pigs don’t have wings. This is why we all must consider a new world order that rejects those who tell us that pig can really fly. It’s about time.

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Do pigs have wings?

[ 31 August 2008: Message edited by: N.Beltov ]

quote:

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Originally posted by cornerstone:
Funny how when Putin razed Chechnya and parts of Dagestan to the ground it was an internal matter but this conflict is all Georgia's fault.

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quote:

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Originally posted by contrarianna:
Spiegel: OSCE observers fault Georgians in conflict

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quote:

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Originally posted by N.Beltov:
The OSCE observers have already identified Georgia's monstrous role in South Ossetia.

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quote:

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Originally posted by N.Beltov:
Those OSCE motherf***ers are the same people that slipped away, quietly, just before Georgia incinerated Tskhinvali.

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Or is this a case of "we have always trusted Eurasia the OSCE!"?

[ 31 August 2008: Message edited by: A_J ]

Edited to add:

quote:

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MOSCOW, August 21 (Itar-Tass) - The deputy chief of the Russian Army General Staff said on Thursday that the Russian Defence Ministry had claims to the OSCE as concerns the initial stage
of the Georgia-South Ossetia conflict. "OSCE observers were warned from Tbilisi about the launch of an invasion, but they did not inform Russian peacekeepers as it is required," Colonel-General Anatoly Nogovitsyn told a news conference.

---

So it's more a question of the OSCE observers knowing what was about to happen and not telling the Russian peacekeepers what they were about to face. If Nogovitsyn is to be believed, then it's even worse than I thought.

[ 01 September 2008: Message edited by: N.Beltov ]

quote:

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The West will not be its moral guide. And the West won’t be Russia’s partner if the rules are made by one party and forced upon the other(s).

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quote:

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Originally posted by Frustrated Mess:
I think it is a world of liars and thugs.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Fidel:

Shamil Basayev and Al Khattab were trained and indoctrinated in CIA sponsored camps in Afghanistan and Pakistan during the 1980's and 90's. The former Islamic Gladios and Osama bin Laden were CIA-SAS-ISI proxies in the war to rid Central Asia of secular socialist thought, but they were mainly drug-dealing terrorists all for themselves soldiers of fortune. Islamic Gladios were also used to destabilize the Balkans in the 1990's. Putin held a press conference at start of the decade and accused Crazy George and British jackals of aiding and abetting terrorism in the former Soviet satellite states, including Chechnya and Dagestan. Basayev was a ruthless mofo who tried exporting the terror war to Dagestan. Who is Osama bin Laden by Michel Chossudovsky, Ottawa

---

And what about Russian assassinated Chechen president Dzhokhar Dudayev who, ironically, claimed to be Ossetian in order to advance in the Soviet Air Force. Or do you think he was a deep cover CIA agent as well?

Dzhokhar is considered a hero in the Baltic states as he refused orders from Moscow to crush their independence movement. Whereas the Baltic states were able to free themselves from Russian occupation unfortunately for Dzhokhar being Muslim meant that Russia could bomb your cities and kill your people with impunity from Western intervention or interest.

quote:

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Originally posted by Frustrated Mess:

Freedom, justice, and liberty (perhaps you mean equality?) have no friends at all outside of flowery speeches and well meaning but marginalized individuals.

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quote:

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Originally posted by cornerstone:

It seems to me that on this board that if you are Muslim and are attacking Israel you're a freedom fighter but if you're fighting the Russians you must be a CIA stooge.

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Well if you can believe the U.S. Senate Republican Policy Committee, Clinton's "lefty" Liberal Democrats were aiding and abetting al Qa'eda, drug-dealing KLA terrorists, and even the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in turning Bosnia and Balkans inside-out right up to NATO bombing in 1999 and election in 2000, the same election that Crazy Jorge de la Yayo lost the popular vote count to Al Gore(of "Blood and Gore" hedge fund notoriety today), two more ruthless motherfuckers with an inside line to the Russian mafia, and "Prince Phil of Greece", another man of leisure who hasn't worked a day in his life, and whose family are the biggest welfare bums on earth)

And then U.S. Democrats and Putin both went so far as to accuse Crazy George II's regime of aiding al Qa'eda, Turkish, Afghan, Uzbek and other mujahideen, and drug-dealing terrorists in Albania, Chechnya, Dagestan etc to at least 9/11/01. The Chechen mafia are ruthless mofos, cornerstone. They have nothing in common with ordinary Chechens, who as of the end of Putin's presidency are content with the bustling economy and rebuilding of infrastructure in Grozny and surrounding areas.

US Hidden Agenda: The Politics of Terrorism in North Ossetia James Petras (from 2004)

quote:

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In response to the Chechen terrorist assaults, all the Western mass media continued to refer to them as “nationalists”, “militants”, “rebels” and as legitimate representatives of the Chechen people, even after they had massacred the school children. In the immediate aftermath, all the print and electronic media, from the BBC to the Guardian, to Le Monde, New York Times etc. criticized the Russians for failing to negotiate with the terrorists ­ even as the terrorists were murdering children and even after they had set off explosives maiming innocent kids. Nothing captures the profound media commitment to empire and backing for the dismemberment of Russia than its support of the terrorists in the midst of mass murder. The most primitive and craven support for terrorist demands in the midst of national grief and international outrage finally provoked the Russian state to react with indignation ­ and for some of the media to temporarily downplay its support of the terrorists and the breakup of Russia.

---

Anyway, I'm sure it's one long running foulup between U.S. cosmetic govs and embedded shadow guvmint lackies down thataway. The thing Canadians should be concerned about during this colder war, is that our Liberative/Conservabral stooges in Ottawa will fall right in-line "aye-aye on the double", whether it's recognizing Kosovo as a new state led by a drug-dealing criminal stooge of the west, or in NOT recognizing the autonomous regions of South Ossetia or Abkhazia, whatever Uncle Sam instructs the stooges in our two old line parties this month or the next, and whether it's Stephane Harper or Stephen Dion awaiting orders from Warshington with baited breath and on bended knee.

[ 01 September 2008: Message edited by: Fidel ]

quote:

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On October 17, 2006, deputy Interior Minister of Russia Arkady Yedelev was quoted by RIA Novosti saying about Anzor Astemirov, one of the organizers of the militant attack:

"I will put it straight, that people like [Anzor] Astemirov are linked to the secret services of some countries that are planning blitzkriegs in South Ossetia, Abkhazia and the South Caucasus, and are pursuing a militant escalation on our territory to transfer some of their gunmen from Iraq to Russia."

Yedelev's allegations were repeated by him on June 4, 2007. He did not identify any countries.

---

Yes, there were "gunmen" moved from Iraq to the South Caucasus recently. But it was public knowledge that it was the US that transported Georgian troops from Iraq to the conflict zone.

[ 01 September 2008: Message edited by: N.Beltov ]

"New Russian world order: the five principles
Here are the principles, in the words which President Medvedev used in an interview with the three main Russian TV channels (translated by the BBC Monitoring Service).

1. International law

"Russia recognises the primacy of the basic principles of international law, which define relations between civilised nations. It is in the framework of these principles, of this concept of international law, that we will develop our relations with other states."

2. Multi-polar world

"The world should be multi-polar. Unipolarity is unacceptable, domination is impermissible. We cannot accept a world order in which all decisions are taken by one country, even such a serious and authoritative country as the United States of America. This kind of world is unstable and fraught with conflict."

3. No isolation

"Russia does not want confrontation with any country; Russia has no intention of isolating itself. We will develop, as far as possible, friendly relations both with Europe and with the United State of America, as well as with other countries of the world."

4. Protect citizens

"Our unquestionable priority is to protect the life and dignity of our citizens, wherever they are. We will also proceed from this in pursuing our foreign policy. We will also protect the interest of our business community abroad. And it should be clear to everyone that if someone makes aggressive forays, he will get a response."

5. Spheres of influence

"Russia, just like other countries in the world, has regions where it has its privileged interests. In these regions, there are countries with which we have traditionally had friendly cordial relations, historically special relations. We will work very attentively in these regions and develop these friendly relations with these states, with our close neighbours."

Asked if these "priority regions" were those that bordered on Russia he replied: "Certainly the regions bordering [on Russia], but not only them."

And he stated: "As regards the future, it depends not just on us. It also depends on our friends, our partners in the international community. They have a choice."

Funny that he used the phrase "...should be multi-polar..." Russia has the EU over a barrel regarding energy so perhaps they think Europe may become part of their sphere of influence- "..., but not only them....They have a choice."

Trying to dismiss the reaction to over 50 years of Soviet policy of Russification which included cultural oppression, forced deportations and genocide as merely the machinations of criminal gangs and the CIA is laughable.

quote:

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4. Protect citizens

"Our unquestionable priority is to protect the life and dignity of our citizens, wherever they are. We will also proceed from this in pursuing our foreign policy. We will also protect the interest of our business community abroad. And it should be clear to everyone that if someone makes aggressive forays, he will get a response."

---

This part scares the crap out of me. There are already rumours that Russia is handing out Russian passports to ethnic Russians living in the Crimea. This is a play straight out of Hiltler's play book to annex the Sudetenland.

I would expect then, that a multi-polar world is the part of these principles that will have the least attention paid to them. Haughty disdain for others, and the utter rejection of the very idea that other countries have legitimate interests of their own is where the Russophobes and their neocon friends/allies begin from.

quote:

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This Georgia incident is becoming very important.

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quote:

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cornerstone: This is a play straight out of Hiltler's play book to annex the Sudetenland.

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I call Godwin. All-e-all-e-in-free!

P.S. Nice Monty Python spelling.

[ 01 September 2008: Message edited by: N.Beltov ]

quote:

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Originally posted by N.Beltov:

I call Godwin. All-e-all-e-in-free!

P.S. Nice Monty Python spelling.

[ 01 September 2008: Message edited by: N.Beltov ]

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Oh wow a typo. If that's all you got good on you.

The annexation of the Sudetenland and the Munich accord were directly linked to Germany's assertion that the German minority in Bohemia, Moravia and Silesia were being oppressed by their Czech overlords.

Namely that Czech instituted land reforms were hurting the predominantly German land owners.

Fast forward to today's Georgia and not much has changed. Russia has invaded Georgia to ostensibly protect the Russian minority from the big bad Georgians.

________________________________________

I don't recall that Hitler bombed the Germans in those areas. But this is precisely what the Saakashvili militarist regime in Tbilisi did; they bombed people in territory that they claimed was their own country. It was ethnic cleansing, pure and simple. And, as a result, Georgia has forever lost any moral right to to talk about "territorial integrity" in these areas when what it means for the butcher of Tbilisi is the killing of their own.

The clock is ticking on Saakashvili. Even the independent Georgian church in Russia is criticizing him. No wonder he is reduced to chewing on his tie .. he's afraid that Georgians will, on their own, string him up by it and remind everyone what Italians did to Mussolini.

[ 01 September 2008: Message edited by: N.Beltov ]

Well seeing that Lord Runciman reported the following during the Sudeten crisis

"Czech officials and Czech police, speaking little or no German, were appointed in large numbers to purely German districts; Czech agricultural colonists were encouraged to settle on land confiscated under the Land Reform in the middle of German populations; for the children of these Czech invaders Czech schools were built on a large scale; there is a very general belief that Czech firms were favoured as against German firms in the allocation of State contracts and that the State provided work and relief for Czechs more readily than for Germans. I believe these complaints to be in the main justified. Even as late as the time of my Mission, I could find no readiness on the part of the Czechoslovak Government to remedy them on anything like an adequate scale ... the feeling among the Sudeten Germans until about three or four years ago was one of hopelessness. But the rise of Nazi Germany gave them new hope. I regard their turning for help towards their kinsmen and their eventual desire to join the Reich as a natural development in the circumstances."

Good lord Beltov perhaps Hitler was misunderstood and he was merely protecting those good people just like Putin is protecting the Osetian's today. Naaaaaa you and Lord Runciman have more in common than you think.

quote:

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Originally posted by N.Beltov:
Calling Godwin's Law means that you have already lost the argument. You just don't know it. The typo was just good for a laugh as it reminded me of the deliberate typo in an episode of MPFC.

________________________________________

I don't recall that Hitler bombed the Germans in those areas. But this is precisely what the Saakashvili militarist regime in Tbilisi did; they bombed people in territory that they claimed was their own country. It was ethnic cleansing, pure and simple. And, as a result, Georgia has forever lost any moral right to to talk about "territorial integrity" in these areas when what it means for the butcher of Tbilisi is the killing of their own.

The clock is ticking on Saakashvili. Even the independent Georgian church in Russia is criticizing him. No wonder he is reduced to chewing on his tie .. he's afraid that Georgians will, on their own, string him up by it and remind everyone what Italians did to Mussolini.

[ 01 September 2008: Message edited by: N.Beltov ]

---

Yeah your so right because nothing happened in Germany between 1933 and 1945

quote:

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Originally posted by N.Beltov:
Do you deny that the thuggish Saaskashvili regime bombed South Ossetia? Yes or No? It's pointless to discuss the events when you deny even basic facts like that.

Why not start a thread where you can spew forth on how much you like the Third Reich? I'm sure you could get some interesting discussion with the moderators. Ha ha. Right before they open a can of whup ass on you. Hardy har har.

---

Where did I say I liked the Third Reich??? Quote me or apologise this instant or you are the one who should have a can of whup ass opened on you.

Making an apt historical comparison is completely acceptable. The pretext for both events is similar in that both Germany and Russia claimed to be defending the interests of an oppressed minority.

Morality has nothing to do with international law. Internal matters are internal matters. It's is tragic, it is appalling but it is perfectly legally acceptable to massacre your own people within your own borders.

quote:

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cornerstone: Morality has nothing to do with international law. Internal matters are internal matters. It's is tragic, it is appalling but it is perfectly legally acceptable to massacre your own people within your own borders.

From Pol Pot to Mugabe as long as you keep it in country happy killing fields.

---

It is precisely this notion of international law that the Russians have successfully challenged. Dogs will bark, the heads of neocons will explode, but at the end of the day the caravan of humanity will move on.

quote:

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So the fact that Saaskashvili bombed the crap out of South Ossetia is irrelevant. Unless, of course, you don't believe in international law.

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Bombing civilians is the sort of international law that has been challenged here. Good for the Russians, who saved the Ossetians and Abkhazians from genocide.

quote:

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Originally posted by cornerstone:
This part scares the crap out of me. There are already rumours that Russia is handing out Russian passports to ethnic Russians living in the Crimea. This is a play straight out of Hiltler's play book to annex the Sudetenland.

---

Well you don't wanna know what U.S. Republicans or the other cosmetic U.S. party leaders have stated, nor what Canadian university professors have to say on the matter. So I don't know. It must be hard to take a pro-U.S. and British line while completely ignoring their official public statements and actions abroad. You're slipperier'n a snake's belly in a wagon rut during a downpour, I must say.

quote:

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Let us not forget that Putin was the head of the KGB in East Germany. It looks like he learned a lot from the hosts.

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quote:

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Originally posted by N.Beltov:
I think the mods should have a look at someone who argues that it is perfectly acceptable to massacre people. Someone like that doesn't belong on babble.

Send him back to hell. You got my vote.

---

Again no apology for the previous slander and now a new one to go on top of the previous.

Nowhere did I say that I think it is acceptable to murder ones own people but I did say that under international law there is really nothing that forbids it and there is definitely no provision that allows for a third party to declare an interest and become a belligerent.

Like Turkey's invasion of Cyprus was illegal so is Russia's invasion of Georgia. Last time I checked the law and justice had nothing to do with each other.

You can not selectively apply the law when it pleases you. The law is the law period. It sucks, it's unfair and it's all we have.

NB nice to see that when you start to lose an argument your resort to name calling and hair puling. Most mature.

Fidel, James Petras is hardly a reliable source. This is a man who publicly declares that Jews, who are less than 2% of the US population, control over 25% of the US's wealth and that Israel was involved in the attacks of 9/11. His assertions are two shades above the protocols of Zion.

Also painting Putin as some sort of saviour is a bit much. The man is worth billions and has his fingers in every dirty little pie in Russia. As for Russia being an innocent victim in all of this. Give me a break.

Putin's youth cult the Nashi

New York Times

Life and Work
Petras received his B.A. from Boston University and Ph.D. from the University of California at Berkeley.[1] His initial appointment at Binghamton was in 1972 at the Sociology Department and . . .(insert list of accolades and literary achievements)Petras is currently a member of the editorial collective of Canadian Dimension and contributes to Counterpunch[/quote]

Here is the original article.

Tribune

quote:

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Originally posted by Fidel:
"TheOtherRussia.org" ranks 51282 out 1,515,000 sites (Mentioned in 21 feeds)

Rabble.ca is several times more popular a news source. No wonder cornerman frequents rabble/babble

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quote:

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Originally posted by Fidel:
[qb]James Petras is a retired Bartle Professor (Emeritus) of Sociology at Binghamton University, SUNY, New York, U.S., and adjunct professor at Saint Mary's University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada who has published prolifically on Latin American and Middle Eastern political issues.

Life and Work
Petras received his B.A. from Boston University and Ph.D. from the University of California at Berkeley.[1] His initial appointment at Binghamton was in 1972 at the Sociology Department and . . .(insert list of accolades and literary achievements)Petras is currently a member of the editorial collective of Canadian Dimension and contributes to Counterpunch

---

[/QUOTE]

Well the ADL has a different opinion of young James

Jewish-Controlled Media and Government
Additionally, anti-Semitic and anti-Israel conspiracy theorists believe that the "Jewish-controlled media and government" have prevented the "real story" about Jewish/Israeli involvement in 9/11 from being broadcast. David Duke and others have often repeated this theme.

James Petras, a radical professor who contributes to the left-wing online journal Rebelion, also writes about Israeli involvement in the 9/11 attacks and "Zionist" influence on the government:
"The stories implicating Israel [in the 9/11 attacks] were completely dismissed by all the media and political leaders across the spectrum. Now U.S. federal investigators reveals [sic] that the Israeli's [sic] may have known about the attack before it occurred and not shared it. This raises the question of the relationships between the Arab terrorists and the Israeli secret police. Did the Israelis penetrate the group or pick up information about them? Federal investigators' confidential information could probably clarify these vital questions. But will the confidential information ever become public? Most likely not. For the very reason that it would expose Israeli influence in the U.S. via its secret agents and more importantly via its powerful overseas lobby and allies in government and finance. The lack of any public statement concerning Israel's possible knowledge of 9/11 is indicative of the vast, ubiquitous and aggressive nature of its powerful diaspora supporters."

ADL

[ 01 September 2008: Message edited by: cornerstone ]

quote:

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Georgia has admitted dropping cluster bombs during its attempt to regain control of its breakaway province of South Ossetia, a human rights group said today.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Frustrated Mess:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/sep/01/georgia.russia

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So has Russia

Human Rights Watch

The US and Russia have both not signed onto international treaties banning land mines and cluster bombs.

Here's a decent little report on Crazy Jorge de la Yayo's grandfather, herr Bushler: How Crazy George II's grandpappy helped Hitler's rise to sieg HEIL! sieg HEIL!! seig HEIL!!!

quote:

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Originally posted by Fidel:
Sorry, but it looks like Mike Hammerhead wrote but one article for IHT. I'm not familiar with Hammertime Gossip-News or Mike Hammerheadenschlagen whatsoever. You must try harder.

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soooooo are you saying that one of the most respected newspapers in the world just opens their pages to anyone without fact checking??? Try Googling his name and you'll see he is a 20 year veteran journalist you covered the former USSR.

quote:

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Originally posted by Fidel:
I'm sorry about ADL, but they only have two apologetic pieces about Prescott Bush who operated a Nazi front bank on Wall Street for years leading up to Adolf's "operation murder European/Asian Jewry and enslave everyone else"

Here's a decent little report on Crazy Jorge de la Yayo's grandfather, herr Bushler: How Crazy George II's grandpappy helped Hitler's rise to sieg HEIL! sieg HEIL!! seig HEIL!!!

The Hitler Project

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quote:

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Originally posted by cornerstone:

So has Russia

Human Rights Watch

The US and Russia have both not signed onto international treaties banning land mines and cluster bombs.

Just because one side is wrong does not mean the other side is right. Both sides can be equally wrong.

---

quote:

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Originally posted by cornerstone:

soooooo are you saying that one of the most respected newspapers in the world just opens their pages to anyone without fact checking???

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There are a number of IHT pieces written by Noam Chomsky, Joseph Stiglitz, and several more people on the left. Did you read those, too?

quote:

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Try Googling his name and you'll see he is a 20 year veteran journalist you covered the former USSR.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Frustrated Mess:

Did I suggest otherwise?

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quote:

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Originally posted by Fidel:
Bush Nazis News "Flash" for cornerstone's eyes only. Turn speaker volume up for that crazy oompah band sound

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And my grandfather came from the same region of Emilia-Romagna as did Mussolini and that makes me what????

The fact that Prescott Bush was an asshole (old news and nothing new has come forward to conclusively prove his guilt, or is it that darn Jewish media keeping it under wraps) has nothing to do with the ADL or the fact that your boy James spouts off about Jewish conspiracies.

quote:

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Originally posted by Fidel:

No thanks, I prefer more independent voices on the past and current events and on Russia today, like Canadians Michel Chossudovsky, Mike Weir, Stephen Gowans - and a long list of American academics and independent voices on the centre-left and left proper. You can plug for Mike Hammerheadenschlagen and Hammerhead news, but you'll find babblers are very particular about news sources.

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so you agree that the IHT is a balanced and reputable source of information until you hear something that challenges your world view.

Good critical thinking there Fidel.

It's a sign of weakness to attack the messenger, in your case feebly, than try to critique the content. I am sure there are many independent corespondents and reporters on Rabble who are unknown outside of their trade but are highly respected within it.

quote:

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Originally posted by cornerstone:

And my grandfather came from the same region of Emilia-Romagna as did Mussolini and that makes me what????

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I think my father rolled through that region with Montgomery's 8th Army after Ortona.

quote:

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The fact that Prescott Bush was an asshole (old news and nothing new has come forward to conclusively prove his guilt, o

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quote:

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Originally posted by cornerstone:

James Petras, a radical professor who contributes to the left-wing online journal Rebelion, also writes about Israeli involvement in the 9/11 attacks and "Zionist" influence on the government:
"The stories implicating Israel [in the 9/11 attacks] were completely dismissed by all the media and political leaders across the spectrum.

---

The truth is that Israeli intelligence warned the neocon cabal of imminent al Qa'eda attacks in the U.S. The Bush-Cheney cosmetic gov ignored the warnings. The Israelis then appealed to the Russians to provide an even more credibility to the warnings, which were also ignored. And then warnings flooded the CIA-White House from world-wide intel agencies, which went ignored as well.

9-11 Commish Panel Suspected Deception by Pentagon

Zogby Poll: 51% of Americans Want Congress to Probe Bush/Cheney Regarding 9/11 Attacks Over 30% Seek Immediate Impeachment

Millions of Americans are afraid of their government, cornerstone. There is no real democracy in the USSA. What they have is plutocracy. It's a charade

[ 01 September 2008: Message edited by: Fidel ]

The recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia has put an end to Saakashvili's visions of ethnic cleansing in those territories. Other states will join in that recognition soon enough. In any case, all it takes is the recognition by a single state to move things forward. And that's been done.

And, the icing on the cake, the Georgian militarist regime, rather than completely break off relations with Russia, has decided to ease visa restrictions that had initially been imposed following the richly-deserved thumping that Russia gave Georgia after the attack by the latter on South Ossetia. Apparently, there are a lot of Russian-Georgian marriages and what have you, and it won't do to cut off your nose to spite your face. Ha ha.

The neocon and Russophobic dogs will bark, but the caravan of humanity will move on. What an utter, utter rout.

And if the Russians are sensible, then they won't run up the score too much and, they will instead make ice-breaking gestures to move things forward. Medvedev's 5 points look to do just that.

[ 02 September 2008: Message edited by: N.Beltov ]

All that said I was very disappointed in the Other Russia's stance on this recent conflict in Georgia. As anyone whose read these threads through since the start would know I believe Russia did what it had to do in the face of US backed Georgian aggression. I've been unhappy to see the other Russia essentially mouthing the US media on this issue; they are risking selling out their people and giving Putin's charge that they are US-backed a lot more weight. Furthermore there are some coalition members who would NEVER back the US-Georgian line on this conflict and I am worried it will split whats left of the Russian opposition.

quote:

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It's Me D: All that said I was very disappointed in the Other Russia's stance on this recent conflict in Georgia. As anyone whose read these threads through since the start would know I believe Russia did what it had to do in the face of US backed Georgian aggression. I've been unhappy to see the other Russia essentially mouthing the US media on this issue; they are risking selling out their people and giving Putin's charge that they are US-backed a lot more weight.

---

The Other Russia might have such a stance but they are downplaying it very much. They would suffer very serious political losses if they really pushed this line in Russia. I'm afraid their opposition on this issue is for western consumption only.

Good luck with your letter. Try another one with a Russian address and see if you get the same reply.

MORE developments.

The Article in Der Spiegel

quote:

---

Meanwhile, various ministries in Berlin have started to doubt the credibility of the most problematic friend of the West. Saakashvili, contrary to his own version of events, apparently ordered the attack on South Ossetia before the Russian tanks entered the province from the north via the Roki Tunnel.

'Carelessly Playing with Fire'

This was reported by military observers working with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) who were in Georgia at the time. Information from tapped phone conversations involving Georgian political leaders may have also made its way into the reports, which have been leaked from OSCE headquarters in Vienna. One source who is personally familiar with the reports summarized the findings as follows: “Saakashvili lied 100 percent to all of us, the Europeans and the Americans.”

Just last week, the Georgian president told Germany’s mass-circulation Bild newspaper: “We respected the cease-fire. It wasn’t until the Russian tanks rolled into South Ossetia that we deployed our artillery.” The OSCE reports also indicate that Saakashvili attacked the civilian population while they were asleep in their beds. That could be tantamount to a war crime. “Our dialogue with Georgia has to become more critical again,” says a top Western diplomat.

---

What about the role of the US as a catalyst for the assault on South Ossetia?

quote:

---

Rumors are currently circulating in the US that Cheney may have sparked the crisis in Georgia as a favor to the Republican presidential candidate. There is a wealth of evidence to support such a theory. McCain’s foreign policy advisor Randy Scheunemann was a lobbyist for the Georgian government until last May. McCain is a close friend of Saakashvili. If the OSCE allegations concerning Georgia’s war plans are substantiated, it could fuel debate on the issue. In the meantime, an election campaign conducted in the shadow of an international crisis offers McCain a golden opportunity. In the hour of peril, experience is likely to garner more votes than hope. Putin has triggered what McCain urgently needs: a sense of anxiety.

---

Furthermore, the article points out that

quote:

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In September, the UN Security Council will vote on whether to extend the ISAF mandate for the stabilization of Afghanistan. A Russian Njet would eliminate the legal basis of the operation, and the German parliament, the Bundestag, could hardly extend its mission for 3,500 soldiers, let alone boost the number of troops to 4,500 as is currently planned. Russia could make it more difficult to supply the troops in the Hindukush by banning NATO military aircraft from flying over its territory.

---

Ditto for Canada in terms of a public debate - POSSIBLY IN THE MIDDLE OF A CANADIAN ELECTION! - on sending troops to a mission that no longer has a legal leg to stand on.

Serious steps against Russia and it's going to be game over for NATO. Literally. The whole organization would blow apart. From an irresponsible ultra-left point of view, one can see the argument for Russia to fart in the face of the Western countries just to provoke such serious steps. Getting rid of NATO would help the left in this part of the world. It would put the issue of an independent Canadian foreign policy on the public agenda. And that would be a good thing.

Unfortunately, such farts in the face of the Western countries could lead to anything. And that's why it's not a good idea. Russia is not the imperialist states of America, they don't view themselves in this way, and even in the current crisis they continue to look for some middle ground. Neocons and Russophobes, Putin-haters and KGB conspiracists, take note. The jig is up on your anti-Russian fatwa bullshit.

[ 02 September 2008: Message edited by: N.Beltov ]

quote:

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In September, the UN Security Council will vote on whether to extend the ISAF mandate for the stabilization of Afghanistan. A Russian Njet would eliminate the legal basis of the operation, and the German parliament, the Bundestag, could hardly extend its mission for 3,500 soldiers, let alone boost the number of troops to 4,500 as is currently planned. Russia could make it more difficult to supply the troops in the Hindukush by banning NATO military aircraft from flying over its territory.

---

The German Parliament, the Canadian Parliament, La la la la .... an election in Canada .... a political party that opposed the NATO mission in Afghanistan might do VERY well if the mission was suddenly, well, illegal ... If the Russians said "Njet" to NATO in Afghanistan, would Jack Layton's NDP be able to move to the left to exploit such a situation in the course of an election? Does the NDP have the stones?

PM Jack Layton? Why not?

It's all VERY interesting.

[ 02 September 2008: Message edited by: N.Beltov ]

If the following report is correct, then the Russian case for claiming that the OSCE personnel knew about the Georgian bombardment and did nothing to save the Russian peacekeepers is weakened. However, the FACT of the Georgian bombardment is STRENGTHENED by this report. If you read Finnish, then please help fellow babblers and confirm the translation.

quote:

---

According to Terhi Hakala, head of the OSCE Mission to Georgia, OSCE
had three observors -- one Finnish, one Polish, and one Belorussian
-- in Tshinvali when the Georgian shelling started. The observors
spent their night hiding in the cellar of the OSCE mission HQ. Hakala
makes very clear that there is no way the OSCE observors would have
been left in Tshinvali as sitting targets had the OSCE mission had
any inkling of Saakahsvili's plans to pulverize the city.

HERE we have a name and face instead of vague references to the OSCE
staff supposedly leaving ahead of the Georgian assault: the Finnish
OSCE observor stationed in Tshinvali, Heikki Lehtonen, gives his
account of the experience (in his native Finnish only, sorry ? ).

On August 7, Lehtonen and his two colleagues from Poland and
Belorussia were calling it a day at the OSCE mission HQ on Pushkin
St., Tshinvali, enjoying a glass of wine before retiring. Just before
midnight, explosions started to rock the city. Lehtonen immediately
called Tbilisi to report the situation. Then it was time to take
cover in the cellar.

The shelling was "hard and continuous". Intervals between the
explosions were no more than five minutes, max.

During the night, a rocket hit the garden of the OSCE mission.
(Hakala later confirmed that part of the OSCE mission building in
Tshinvali took hits and was partly destroyed.) The house across the
street was on fire. (Begs the question, who thought the OSCE was a legitimate military target? Or did someone think the OSCE observors to be troublesome eyewitnesses and therefore better get rid of them?) In the wee hours, the observors heard military vehicles moving in.

Friday afternoon, the observors received a text message from Hakala
telling them there was a ceasefire, starting at 3 p.m. and get out at the first possible opportunity.

At 4 p.m Friday afternoon, the OSCE observors left their post in Tshinvali and evacuated to Tbilisi. There were still fighting and explosions in Tshinvali despite the ceasefire when the observors left the town behind, Lehtonen reports.

---

Ambassador Terhi Hakala

"Ambassador Terhi Hakala, an expert on Southern Caucasus and Eastern Europe, took up her duties as the Head of the OSCE Mission to Georgia in October 2007. At the time of her appointment, she was serving as Finland's Roving Ambassador to Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan."

If you read Finnish, then here is the original ...

Suomalaistarkkailija koki sodan alun Tshinvalissa

[ 02 September 2008: Message edited by: N.Beltov ]

quote:

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I consider HRW’s “cluster bomb” charge to be HIGHLY questionable. Here
are my reasons…

1. Human Rights Watch charges that Russia used cluster bombs on
Georgian CIVILIANS. Strange how no other Russian atrocity can be cited
except this one. The reason there were no other atrocities is that
Russia knew the Western press would tell lies. Therefore, if only for
political reasons, Russia was careful not to cause any more damage and
injuries than absolutely necessary. Russia knew that if Russia
committed even one atrocity, it would be front page news all over the
West. Moreover, the Georgian army was mostly in retreat. Why use
cluster bombs on them? Why use cluster bombs on civilians? Colonel-
General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, deputy chief of Russia’s General Staff,
said, “We never use cluster bombs. There's no need to.”

2. HRW was originally founded as an anti-Soviet group, and is 100
percent funded by Jewish interests, who remain anti-Russian. That’s
why HRW defended Israel’s atrocities against Lebanon in 2006. The
Israelis used cluster bombs on Lebanese civilians in the last 72 hours
of the Israeli retreat, in a kind of “scorched earth” policy. This
did not play well in the world press. Therefore groups like HRW are
keen to blame others for using cluster bombs. HRW also claims that
Georgia only killed 44 Ossetians.

3. HRW’s “evidence” is a photo of a bomb and crater. You can see this
photo at the HRW web site http://www.hrw.org/#nolink . The Russians
have asked repeatedly for independent confirmation of this. How do we
know this is really a cluster bomb? How did it get so neatly planted
beside the small crater? Why does a small crater exist anyway? Cluster
bombs explode in mid-air for maximum lethal effect. HRW claims the
bomb is a Russian RBK-250 model dropped by Russian aircraft on the
village of Ruisi. How did HRW become an expert in Russian ordnance?
Where were the village civilians when this alleged cluster bomb was
allegedly dropped on them? HRW also claims to have “testimony” of
Georgians, who are naturally inclined to lie about the Russian
forces.

4. HRW’s web site also has a video of smoke rising from distant
buildings. No aircraft can be seen in the video, nor incandescent
streamers of cluster bombs. How does HRW know it was Russian ordnance
that exploded in the video, or that it was ordnance at all? It might
have been fuel tanks exploding, or Georgians blowing up a cache of
shells to prevent it from falling into Russian hands. Georgian doctors
claim to have seen injuries “consistent” with a cluster bomb attack.
Conventional shrapnel and flying glass produce the same injuries.

5. With any cluster bomb, ten to thirty percent of its internal
bomblets do not detonate. Therefore HRW should be able to find
thousands of bomblets lying around Georgia, as there were in Lebanon.
Oddly, HRW can find no bomblets.

5. There is no physical proof, no independent confirmation, and no
reason for Russia to use cluster bombs. We only have HRW’s wild
claims, plus a questionable photo, and some newspaper headlines. This
is not “proof.” The Financial Times ran a headline saying the Russians
bombed Gori, but the text of the article made no mention of this
alleged bombing, since it didn’t happen.

6. HRW is doing exactly what the Western press does. HRW takes every
Georgian atrocity and says Russia did it. For example, Georgians fired
on fleeing Ossetians. Therefore HRW says Russia fired on fleeing
Georgian civilians. Mr. Saakashvili says Tskhinvali was flattened by
Russian “carpet bombing,” not by Georgia. Incredible!

HRW's claims are HIGHLY questionable.

---

quote:

---

The Other Russia might have such a stance but they are downplaying it very much. They would suffer very serious political losses if they really pushed this line in Russia. I'm afraid their opposition on this issue is for western consumption only.

---

That wasn't good enough. Kasparov couldn't get a meeting in decent-sized hall ... as a result of which he didn't even get his name on the ballot. His election participation was over before it began.

quote:

---

Many Western analysts have chosen to interpret the recent fighting in the Caucasus as the onset of a new Cold War, with a small pro-Western democracy bravely resisting a brutal reincarnation of Stalin's jack-booted Soviet Union. Others have viewed it a throwback to the age-old ethnic politics of southeastern Europe, with assorted minorities using contemporary border disputes to settle ancient scores.

Neither of these explanations is accurate. To fully grasp the recent upheavals in the Caucasus, it is necessary to view the conflict as but a minor skirmish in a far more significant geopolitical struggle between Moscow and Washington over the energy riches of the Caspian Sea basin -- with former Russian President (now Prime Minister) Vladimir Putin emerging as the reigning Grand Master of geostrategic chess and the Bush team turning out to be middling amateurs, at best.

---

The Russians were ready, I think, for some sort of attack from Saakashvili, but being ready for an attack hardly translates into the laying of a trap. If anything, the Russians avoided a trap of staying in Georgia and the American Gambit failed in that regard.

Geostrategic views of politics (Brezhinski) or geopolitical views tend to trivialize political and social factors and the political economy, put too much emphasis on the technology of warfare, and are far too easily impressed with big explosions.

This, might be of interest ...

http://pulitzercenter.typepad.com/untold_stories/2008/08/georgias-presid.html

quote:

---

To Giorgi Khaindrava, one of the leading Georgian opposition figures, Saakashvili was an “idiot,” a chess player utterly incapable of thinking more than a single move ahead.

---

Being educated in the US, married to a Dutch academic, Saakashvili may share the same geopolitical prejudices of western ideologues. But he's still a patzer over any chess board. If he had seen a few more moves ahead, then he would have seen the position he finds himself in right now.

Saakashvili, the patzer King.

[ 02 September 2008: Message edited by: N.Beltov ]

quote:

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In the most recent Russian election, groups of young people followed Kasparov around, taunting him with noisy claims of foreign funding, and so on. There was even a Kasparov meeting disrupted by a flying penis if you please.

That wasn't good enough. Kasparov couldn't get a meeting in decent-sized hall ... as a result of which he didn't even get his name on the ballot. His election participation was over before it began.

I suppose he has some money and as long as the Wall Street Journal pays him to write fluff pieces for great gobs of money, then he should be OK. Left wing he ain't.

---

I hope you're not taring all the members of the Other Russia coalition with the same brush. You're right about Kasparov and the general success of the opposition in Russia (for which Putin deserves major credit); some members of the Other Russia are undoubtedly left wing however, though mostly they get very poor coverage in the west. Incidentally my screen name like yours, derives from a Russian author/politician; he happens to be one of the leaders of the Other Russia.

[ 02 September 2008: Message edited by: It's Me D ]

quote:

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It's Me D: I hope you're not tarring all the members of the Other Russia coalition with the same brush.

---

I'm not. Politics makes strange bedfellows, as we all know.

Supplemental: a thread on The Other Russia, or on the left in Russia, with reference to TOR, would be useful. Go for it. I'd read it, and quietly too.

[ 02 September 2008: Message edited by: N.Beltov ]

quote:

---

“Saakashvili, the Russian argument runs, initiated military escalation over the past year because his political base has cracked and his domestic support is dwindling. The Georgian political opposition at home, and in exile abroad, agrees. They charge the president and his family, including the powerful Timur Alasaniya, Saakashvili’s uncle, of growing corruptly rich off the arms trade and of seizing the country’s resource, port, and trading concessions for themselves and their supporters. Alasaniya, brother to Saakashvili’s mother, holds the official position of Georgian representative to a United Nations Commission on Disarmament in New York (no relation to Irakly Alasaniya, Georgia’s ambassador to the United Nations).

The leaders of the Georgian opposition nearly succeeded in toppling Saakashvili last autumn. The president was forced to impose military rule in Tbilisi, while his former defence minister, Irakly Okruashvili, publicly accused him of murder and corruption. Okruashvili is currently in Paris, where he has been granted political asylum by the French government. In June, a French court rejected Saakashvili’s warrant for the arrest and extradition of his former friend and now bitterest critic. Okruashvili is uncompromised by early career links to Moscow, unlike a number of political party leaders in Tbilisi. Okruashvili is a likely candidate to replace Saakashvili, if and when Georgian public opinion turns against the president…”

... With the Georgian presidential alternative Okruashvili under their wing in Paris, what the French do next may bridge the gap which Saakashvili's artillery tore apart last Friday.

---

The Russian Resurgence

In short, the United States remained heavily committed to a region stretching from Iraq to Pakistan, with main force committed to Iraq and Afghanistan, and the possibility of commitments to Pakistan (and above all to Iran) on the table. U.S. ground forces were stretched to the limit, and U.S. airpower, naval and land-based forces had to stand by for the possibility of an air campaign in Iran — regardless of whether the U.S. planned an attack, since the credibility of a bluff depended on the availability of force.

The situation in this region actually was improving, but the United States had to remain committed there. It was therefore no accident that the Russians invaded Georgia on Aug. 8 following a Georgian attack on South Ossetia. Forgetting the details of who did what to whom, the United States had created a massive window of opportunity for the Russians: For the foreseeable future, the United States had no significant forces to spare to deploy elsewhere in the world, nor the ability to sustain them in extended combat. Moreover, the United States was relying on Russian cooperation both against Iran and potentially in Afghanistan, where Moscow’s influence with some factions remains substantial. The United States needed the Russians and couldn’t block the Russians. Therefore, the Russians inevitably chose this moment to strike.

On Sunday, Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev in effect ran up the Jolly Roger. Whatever the United States thought it was dealing with in Russia, Medvedev made the Russian position very clear. He stated Russian foreign policy in five succinct points, which we can think of as the Medvedev Doctrine (and which we see fit to quote here):

First, Russia recognizes the primacy of the fundamental principles of international law, which define the relations between civilized peoples. We will build our relations with other countries within the framework of these principles and this concept of international law.

Second, the world should be multipolar. A single-pole world is unacceptable. Domination is something we cannot allow. We cannot accept a world order in which one country makes all the decisions, even as serious and influential a country as the United States of America. Such a world is unstable and threatened by conflict.

Third, Russia does not want confrontation with any other country. Russia has no intention of isolating itself. We will develop friendly relations with Europe, the United States, and other countries, as much as is possible.

Fourth, protecting the lives and dignity of our citizens, wherever they may be, is an unquestionable priority for our country. Our foreign policy decisions will be based on this need. We will also protect the interests of our business community abroad. It should be clear to all that we will respond to any aggressive acts committed against us.

Finally, fifth, as is the case of other countries, there are regions in which Russia has privileged interests. These regions are home to countries with which we share special historical relations and are bound together as friends and good neighbors. We will pay particular attention to our work in these regions and build friendly ties with these countries, our close neighbors.

Medvedev concluded, “These are the principles I will follow in carrying out our foreign policy. As for the future, it depends not only on us but also on our friends and partners in the international community. They have a choice.”

The second point in this doctrine states that Russia does not accept the primacy of the United States in the international system. According to the third point, while Russia wants good relations with the United States and Europe, this depends on their behavior toward Russia and not just on Russia’s behavior. The fourth point states that Russia will protect the interests of Russians wherever they are — even if they live in the Baltic states or in Georgia, for example. This provides a doctrinal basis for intervention in such countries if Russia finds it necessary.

The fifth point is the critical one: “As is the case of other countries, there are regions in which Russia has privileged interests.” In other words, the Russians have special interests in the former Soviet Union and in friendly relations with these states. Intrusions by others into these regions that undermine pro-Russian regimes will be regarded as a threat to Russia’s “special interests.”

Edit for copy right

[ 02 September 2008: Message edited by: Webgear ]

quote:

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It was therefore no accident that the Russians invaded Georgia on Aug. 8 following a Georgian attack on South Ossetia. Forgetting the details of who did what to whom, the United States had created a massive window of opportunity for the Russians...

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Webgear:
By George Friedman

The United States has been fighting a war in the Islamic world since 2001.

---

I think the Nazis had a similar excuse for blitzkrieg on Europe and marching into Russia uninvited.

OK, now that I've got that out of the way ... I read George Friedman and I think about pulling out my Axis and Allies board. Get a good game of D&D going. Maybe a few rounds of Railbuilder. This guy has read Brezhinski's books too many times, or something, and geostrategic/geopolitical concepts are the only ones that seem to stick in his analysis.

To reiterate what I've already mentioned on this thread, such views invariably miss out on political and economic analysis in a big way. When an author writes,
"(f)orgetting the details of who did what to whom ...", he's demonstrating that the sequence of events leading to war and the political causes of war don't really matter to him. War over territory is a kind of "given". Let me just note that such views lead one to the kind of utter miscalculations that led the US to arm Georgia to the teeth to begin with, and also led Georgia on its misguided and failed attack on South Ossetia. Why I, as a reader, should enter into this world of geopolitical and geostrategic analysis, presumably as a way to understand what's taken place in the Caucuses these past few weeks, when it is such an approach that led to the conflict to begin with is beyond me. War is inevitable because ... war is inevitable. The very idea that efforts should be made to prevent war, that such efforts ought to be the focus of the actions of states and governments, this is just "outside the box" for one George Friedman.

In science we look at causes and their effects. We try to isolate particular causes or particular effects to make sense of things. And that's before we try to understand things in motion, in the complicated trajectory of cause leading to effect leading to new cause, and so on. Marxists call this sort of complication "dialectics". Far be it for me to say much more than that; I'm no expert but at least I can see that. I'm not sure that Friedman actually buys into "cause" and "effect", much less makes use of philosophical and scientific tools to enrich his analysis.

Bernard L. Montgomery, in his speech in the House of Lords on 30 May 1962, inspired an amusing line in a movie several decades later.

"Rule 1, on page 1 of the book of war is: 'Do not march on Moscow.' ... Rule 2 is: 'Do not go fighting with your land armies in China.'"

Vizzini, a character from The Princess Bride, said the following:

"Never get involved in a land war in Asia."

I just linked this new article because other people liked his last article however I know you do not like him.

I am indifferent to his work, I just like reading all points of view especially geostrategic/geopolitical concepts.

Have you seen the new Axis and Allies games? They look very interesting.

[ 02 September 2008: Message edited by: Webgear ]

quote:

---

Webgear:I did not pay do not the article, it is a free bi-weekly email.

---

OK. He's probably not going to get annoyed then. But you should still refrain from quoting articles in their entirety. It's a bad habit to get into. It could cause babble some problems down the road.

And besides ... it may just show that you haven't read the article in question, or understood its contents, if you haven't got around to drawing attention to the ideas that interest you the most.

quote:

---

Have you seen the new Axis and Allies games? They look very interesting.

---

I have a very rare copy of the Windows 98 version. If I ever master that version, they I suppose I might get around to more recent versions.

-----------------------------------

Maybe this simple game theory or geostrategy in the free version of Friedman's e-newsletter is just the window dressing of something richer, or more subversive, that clients have to pay for.

quote:

---

Free Preview of Members-Only Content

To view the requested intelligence, you must be a Stratfor.com member.
Canada: New Elections Expected Oct. 14
September 2, 2008 1112 GMT
Canadian Prime Minister plans to dissolve parliament and call early elections set for Oct. 14,... [more]

---

I get tons of free articles from many sources.

I am not good at game theory or geo-strategy, that is why I try an read everything I can.

I should know better about the copy right laws, my mistake.

quote:

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Webgear: Axis and Allies needs to be played on a board, the computer version is not the same.

---

The WIN 98 version is very, very close to playing on the board. And it's great if you play with opponents who are in the habit of cheating.

quote:

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The Princess Bride is a good movie, my daughters like it a lot.

---

When people of many different ages can enjoy a film, that's usually a sign of a very good movie. This particular film motivated me to investigate actor Wallace Shawn some more.

quote:

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I should know better about the copy right laws, my mistake.

---

quote:

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EURONEWS: Still, some say there may be sanctions, like expulsion from the G8, or a ban on Russia joining the WTO. In case these measures are taken, what will be Russia’s response? Ordinary Europeans are concerned that a hot summer in the Caucasus may be followed by a cold winter in Europe.

---

Medvedev says the usual things about the WTO and the G-8. He mentions that if progress is not made, and soon, on the WTO, then Russian will have no option but to "pull out of some treaties that imposed certain restrictions on us with regard to the WTO." Then he goes on:

quote:

---

As for other levers of influence, I don’t think we should expect a cold winter or anything of that nature. Nobody wants to see that.

EURONEWS: What I meant was hydrocarbon supplies…

Dmitry Medvedev: Yes, I know what you were hinting at. Of course, we are going to fully honour all the obligations Russia took upon itself as the main supplier of hydrocarbons to Europe.

---

So, turning the tap off is out of the question. Finns, Bulgarians and others who rely for 90% of their natural gas on Russia will be pleased to hear that.

quote:

---

I have already said that the August events demonstrated how imperfect the current security architecture is. We need to re-create it according to the reality we face today. Some time ago, I listed five principles I will follow in Russia’s foreign policy. I’d like to repeat them now. First, Russia will fully abide by the standards of international law that define relations between civilised nations. Second, Russia believes the world should be multipolar. It thinks a unipolar world dominated by one state, no matter which one it is, is unacceptable. Third, we are naturally interested in developing normal, friendly relations with all nations in Europe, in Asia, with the United States, with Africa - with all nations on the planet. These relations will be as deep as our partners want them to be. Fourth, I believe that protecting our citizens’ lives and dignity, no matter where they are, is an absolute priority. This is another priority for Russia’s foreign policy. Finally, the fifth principle is that Russia, like any other state, has certain regions it will pay particular attention to. These are regions of our privileged interests. We are going to have special, cordial, long-term relations with the states in these regions.

---

In an interview with Italian channel RAI, Medvedev said the following:

quote:

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RAI: To solve the crisis in Georgia, Italy suggested an intermediary conference in Rome. In one of the interviews for our television company, President Saakashvili agreed to participate. Will you come to Rome to discuss the peace settlement?

Dmitry Medvedev: Of course we’re open to discussing anything at conferences and other international forums. But we would like the international community to remember who started the aggression, who’s responsible for killing people, and what price has been paid. As for the Georgian authorities: we think that the current regime has discredited itself. And to us, President Saakashvili no longer exists. He’s a political corpse. But we’re open to discuss any issues including that of the post-conflict settlement in the region.

---

quote:

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he must be convinced that it is only a matter of time before the latter is replaced by someone else.

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The aggressive U.S. encirclement of Russia threatens a new era of Cold War, fueled by American media hogwash about "poor defenseless Georgians" who "suffered a dastardly, unjustified, sneak attack from the evil Russian bear." It does not phase the U.S. propaganda media that the facts reflect the opposite: "The recent conflict between Russia and Georgia was instigated by the United States and its partner in crime, Israel." Washington's foreign policy fictions are bipartisan. "At his acceptance speech for the Vice Presidential nomination Senator Joseph Biden parroted Bush administration lies almost word for word."

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Stanley10: The Peace Agreement mentions the time frame of "six months". It doesn't take a long time to be declared a "failed state". The weather will likely be cold in Europe about that time.

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Everyone knows that most bears hibernate in the winter. But, if that isn't enough ...

"MOSCOW. Sept 3 (Interfax) - Russia will firmly abide by its agreements on energy supplies, said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. "We have partners with whom we have long-term energy contracts. And these contracts will be complied with," he told a press conference in Moscow after talks with his Belgian counterpart Karel de Gucht."

Since they were so close to Tbilisi only last week or so, wouldn't it have been easier, if that was their intention, to just pick up Saakashvili while they were there?

The Georgians are going to throw out Saakashvili themselves. And I suspect he will get a nice cushy job in the USA, with not much to do, but, with plenty of spare time to spend the rest of his days (not in custody for war crimes, that is) on shrill denunciations of the big, bad bear.

[ 03 September 2008: Message edited by: N.Beltov ]

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Kassin was so angry he gave an interview to the Russian daily Izvestia.

“Could it be that the most liberal, democratic and independent magazine has gone down the road of ideological one-sided propaganda?” he said. “In my view this is one of the rare cases when Spiegel has taken a pro-American stance.”

In the last three issues Spiegel has given extensive coverage to the war in the Caucasus, but only a few articles have dealt with the situation in South Ossetia.

The rest have shown Georgia as a ‘martyr’ suffering from ‘Russian aggression’. Most images featured ruined houses in the Georgian town of Gori and crushed military ships in the port of Poti.

Meanwhile, the South Ossetian capital Tskhinval, which suffered 12 hours of bombing by the Georgian military, is shown like a city living an ordinary life.

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German weekly ignores shocking Tskhinvali images.

German weekly in propaganda row.

Nope. Never saw this one. I guess it never happened.

[ 03 September 2008: Message edited by: N.Beltov ]

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Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko's party officially pulled out of the ruling pro-Western coalition on Wednesday amid a government dispute over presidential powers and the Georgia-Russia conflict.

The Our Ukraine party's decision was reached on Tuesday night after lawmakers voted to reduce the president's powers, and was officially announced to parliament on Wednesday morning.

Yushchenko earlier accused Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko of "treason and political corruption" over her failure to back the president in his support for Georgia and condemnation of Russia in the recent conflict over South Ossetia. The premier is widely expected to run against Yushchenko at the next presidential election.

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New laws have stripped the President of a veto over the selection of Prime Minister and have made the process for impeaching the President easier.

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Since they were so close to Tbilisi only last week or so, wouldn't it have been easier, if that was their intention, to just pick up Saakashvili while they were there?

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In the first few posts in the very first thread on this subject on Aug 8th Papal Bull and I discussed whether the Russians should move into Tbilisi and depose Saakashvili or whether they could push the Georgian people to depose Saakashvili themselves without taking Tbilisi. I felt the Russians should depose him themselves, and wasn't convinced the Georgians would throw him out on their own; Papal Bull seemed more optimistic that the Georgian people could deal with Saakashvili. The Russians obviously agreed with Papal Bull, let us hope that they are right and Saakashvili is not able to cling to power as he is desperately trying to do.

Thanks for the update on the Ukraine Beltov, I am not convinced Tymoshenko would be a great leader for Ukraine or that she'd be willing to cooperate with the Russians in her people's best interest but I'd be glad to see an end to the US-backed Yushchenko and his policies of tearing Ukraine apart in support of the US agenda. I suppose this counts as good news.

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Supplemental: a thread on The Other Russia, or on the left in Russia, with reference to TOR, would be useful. Go for it. I'd read it, and quietly too.

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ETA: even during the course of the conflict, there were, already, voices in the media (former Georgian President Shevardnadze, for example) that were warning of the danger of too much talk, much less action, against Saakashvili on the part of the Russians. There was a real danger that the Russians could have made the Georgian President more popular and wind up keeping him in power.

Georgians are like Americans in one way, at least, I've read. They stick to their leader in times of crisis. I think it was wise of the Russians to back off, leave Saakashvili alone, and let Georgians in their own way deal with him. The main thing has been accomplished; Saakashvili can't hurt anyone in South Ossetia or Abkhazia any more. The rest is just politics ... which is always, or should be, secondary to human lives.

[ 03 September 2008: Message edited by: N.Beltov ]

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In September, the UN Security Council will vote on whether to extend the ISAF mandate for the stabilization of Afghanistan. A Russian Njet would eliminate the legal basis of the operation, and the German parliament, the Bundestag, could hardly extend its mission for 3,500 soldiers, let alone boost the number of troops to 4,500 as is currently planned. (Canada is spelled with a "C" - N.Beltov) Russia could make it more difficult to supply the troops in the Hindukush by banning NATO military aircraft from flying over its territory.

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And now we have this:

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Speaking at a news conference at NATO headquarters in Brussels late on Wednesday, Dmitri Rogozin said, “Future cooperation [in Afghanistan] will depend on the alliance’s position in the Caucasus crisis. We are not satisfied either with NATO’s words or actions”, he said. Russia has already suspended all peacekeeping operations with NATO for at least six months and has frozen its participation in NATO’s Partnership for Peace program. Mr Rogozin said that Moscow so far had decided to continue supporting NATO operations in Afghanistan only because Russia was concerned by the worsening military and political situation in the Central Asian country accompanied by a continuing rise in extremism and illegal drug production. Earlier, Moscow agreed to allow non-lethal goods for NATO troops in Afghanistan to pass through Russian territory.

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The article goes on to point out how the increasing heroin production is doing harm to Russia, increasing drug addiction in that country, and so on ...

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Since the Taliban regime was overthrown in the 2001 US-led campaign, Afghanistan has become the world’s leading producer of heroin. Afghanistan’s opium production increased from 6,100 tons in 2006 to 8,200 tons in 2007, according to the UN. The narcotics trade has become an acute problem for Russia and the Central Asian republics due to a continual flow of illegal drugs from Afghanistan. “We do not see any success [in NATO operations], but, only a degradation of the situation in Afghanistan, and that is why Russia decided to maintain its cooperation with NATO in this area”, he said. NATO’s International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) has about 53,000 troops operating in the country under a UN mandate to help give security support to the Afghan government and stop the flow of drugs from the country. However, despite international efforts, the Taliban, ousted from power after a US-led military operation in 2001, have stepped up their activities in recent months. The radical Islamic movement vowed to increase suicide and other attacks in order to undermine the authority of the current Afghan administration.

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Russia may suspend support for NATO operations in Afghanistan

All of this may have a profound effect on the public debate in other NATO countries - especially those with troops that are fighting and being killed in Afghanistan. And a country in the middle, say, of an election, ...

[ 04 September 2008: Message edited by: N.Beltov ]