The George W Bush administration plans to launch an air
strike against Iran within the next two months, an informed source
tells Asia Times Online, echoing other reports that have surfaced in
the media in the United States recently.
Two key US senators briefed on the attack planned to go public with
their opposition to the move, according to the source, but their
projected New York Times op-ed piece has yet to appear.
The source, a retired US career diplomat and former assistant
secretary of state still active in the foreign affairs community,
speaking anonymously, said last week that that the US plans an air
strike against the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The air
strike would target the headquarters of the IRGC's elite Quds force.
With an estimated strength of up to 90,000 fighters, the Quds' stated
mission is to spread Iran's revolution of 1979 throughout the region.
Targets could include IRGC garrisons in southern and southwestern
Iran, near the border with Iraq. US officials have repeatedly claimed
Iran is aiding Iraqi insurgents. In January 2007, US forces raided the
Iranian consulate general in Erbil, Iraq, arresting five staff
members, including two Iranian diplomats it held until November. Last
September, the US Senate approved a resolution by a vote of 76-22
urging President George W Bush to declare the IRGC a terrorist
organization. Following this non-binding "sense of the senate"
resolution, the White House declared sanctions against the Quds Force
as a terrorist group in October. The Bush administration has also
accused Iran of pursuing a nuclear weapons program, though most
intelligence analysts say the program has been abandoned.
An attack on Iraq would fit the Bush administration's declared policy
on Iraq. Administration officials questioned directly about military
action against Iran routinely assert that "all options remain on the
table".
Rockin' And A-Reelin'
Senators and the Bush administration denied the resolution and
terrorist declaration were preludes to an attack on Iran. However,
attacking Iran rarely seems far from some American leaders' minds.
Arizona senator and presumptive Republican presidential nominee John
McCain recast the classic Beach Boys tune Barbara Ann as "Bomb Iran".
Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton promised "total obliteration" for
Iran if it attacked Israel.
The US and Iran have a long and troubled history, even without the
proposed air strike. US and British intelligence were behind attempts
to unseat prime minister Mohammed Mossadeq, who nationalized Britain's
Anglo-Iranian Petroleum Company, and returned Shah Mohammad Reza
Pahlavi to power in 1953. President Jimmy Carter's pressure on the
Shah to improve his dismal human-rights record and loosen political
control helped the 1979 Islamic revolution unseat the Shah.
But the new government under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini condemned the
US as "the Great Satan" for its decades of support for the Shah and
its reluctant admission into the US of the fallen monarch for cancer
treatment. Students occupied the US Embassy in Teheran, holding 52
diplomats hostage for 444 days. Eight American commandos died in a
failed rescue mission in 1980. The US broke diplomatic relations with
Iran during the hostage holding and has yet to restore them. Iranian
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's rhetoric often sounds lifted from the
Khomeini era.
The source said the White House views the proposed air strike as a
limited action to punish Iran for its involvement in Iraq. The source,
an ambassador during the administration of president H W Bush, did not
provide details on the types of weapons to be used in the attack, nor
on the precise stage of planning at this time. It is not known whether
the White House has already consulted with allies about the air
strike, or if it plans to do so.
Sense In The Senate
Details provided by the administration raised alarm bells on Capitol
Hill, the source said. After receiving secret briefings on the planned
air strike, Senator Diane Feinstein, Democrat of California, and
Senator Richard Lugar, Republican of Indiana, said they would write a
New York Times op-ed piece "within days", the source said last week,
to express their opposition. Feinstein is a member of the Senate
Intelligence Committee and Lugar is the ranking Republican on the
Foreign Relations Committee.
Senate offices were closed for the US Memorial Day holiday, so
Feinstein and Lugar were not available for comment.
Given their obligations to uphold the secrecy of classified
information, it is unlikely the senators would reveal the Bush
administration's plan or their knowledge of it. However, going public
on the issue, even without specifics, would likely create a public
groundswell of criticism that could induce the Bush administration
reconsider its plan.
The proposed air strike on Iran would have huge implications for
geopolitics and for the ongoing US presidential campaign. The biggest
question, of course, is how would Iran respond?
Iran's options
Iran could flex its muscles in any number of ways. It could step up
support for insurgents in Iraq and for its allies throughout the
Middle East. Iran aids both Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Israel's
Occupied Territories. It is also widely suspected of assisting Taliban
rebels in Afghanistan.
Iran could also choose direct confrontation with the US in Iraq and/or
Afghanistan, with which Iran shares a long, porous border. Iran has a
fighting force of more than 500,000. Iran is also believed to have
missiles capable of reaching US allies in the Gulf region.
Iran could also declare a complete or selective oil embargo on US
allies. Iran is the second-largest oil exporter in the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries and fourth-largest overall. About 70% of
its oil exports go to Asia. The US has barred oil imports from Iran
since 1995 and restricts US companies from investing there.
China is Iran's biggest customer for oil, and Iran buys weapons from
China. Trade between the two countries hit US$20 billion last year and
continues to expand. China's reaction to an attack on Iran is also a
troubling unknown for the US.
Three For The Money
The Islamic world could also react strongly against a US attack
against a third predominantly Muslim nation. Pakistan, which also
shares a border with Iran, could face additional pressure from Islamic
parties to end its cooperation with the US to fight al-Qaeda and hunt
for Osama bin Laden. Turkey, another key ally, could be pushed further
off its secular base. American companies, diplomatic installations and
other US interests could face retaliation from governments or mobs in
Muslim-majority states from Indonesia to Morocco.
A US air strike on Iran would have seismic impact on the presidential
race at home, but it's difficult to determine where the pieces would
fall.
At first glance, a military attack against Iran would seem to favor
McCain. The Arizona senator says the US is locked in battle across the
globe with radical Islamic extremists, and he believes Iran is one of
biggest instigators and supporters of the extremist tide. A strike on
Iran could rally American voters to back the war effort and vote for
McCain.
On the other hand, an air strike on Iran could heighten public
disenchantment with Bush administration policy in the Middle East,
leading to support for the Democratic candidate, whoever it is.
But an air strike will provoke reactions far beyond US voting booths.
That would explain why two veteran senators, one Republican and one
Democrat, were reportedly so horrified at the prospect.
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