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Author Topic: UK Election Thread
kuri
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posted 25 March 2005 06:22 AM      Profile for kuri   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Conservative foot-in-mouth disease....

.... not only a Canadian phenomenom!

This bit of UK news gave me a giggle.

quote:
During a meeting that was taped, the Arundel and South Downs MP said that the scale of planned cuts was being concealed to help win an election. ... The Times reportedly obtained a tape recording of the remarks, made at a private meeting of the Thatcherite Conservative Way Forward Group on Wednesday.

OK, so maybe it's not fair that comments he thought were private were taped. But it might just show that even Conservatives were concerned about the cuts to services planned, since they would have to have been the ones leaking it.

Edit: Since there wasn't much to talk about in this thread, I thought I'd change it into a general UK election thread where anything goes.

[ 10 April 2005: Message edited by: dokidoki ]


From: an employer more progressive than rabble.ca | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
The Other Todd
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posted 25 March 2005 10:10 AM      Profile for The Other Todd     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Man, I love it when this stuff happens!

But I have my doubts about how many people will hear of it and what effect it'll have.


From: Ottawa | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
kuri
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posted 10 April 2005 05:38 AM      Profile for kuri   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Once again the issue of immigration is rearing its head as both Labour and Conservatives compete to demonize immigrants and especially, asylum seekers. Polling seems to indicate that both parties have good reasons to do this.

The Lib Dems say they are "determined to be positive during the election" - but at what point will positive be too boring in comparison with the inflamatory comments of the other two? I like their platform generally (for this election) but I'm not sure it will get the headlines to be known.

As an aside, I'm curious as to what extent the "tribalistic" voting patterns will hold in this election with Labour ceasing to be an explicitly working class party, and the Cons trying to appeal to the working class from a right-wing, almost populist perspective (but Mr. Howard is still way too 'precious' to be populist IMHO).

Edited to increase my LQ. (link-quotient)

[ 10 April 2005: Message edited by: dokidoki ]


From: an employer more progressive than rabble.ca | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 10 April 2005 08:18 AM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
It'll be interesting to watch the pollsters - MORI in particular has been registering wild swings, and may in fact have experienced two rogue polls in a week (their last poll showed the Cons at 39 to Labour at 34, now they're showing Labour at 40 to the Cons at 33, and they released a bizarre Scotland poll with Labour well above their usual at 47%, the Tories in second (highly illogical) and both the SNP and LibDems down 5%.
In a British election, there is always at least one polling company who completely humiliates themselves over the run of the campaign - my money's on MORI.

Here's a very useful site.


From: Calgary | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
ghoris
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posted 13 April 2005 10:26 PM      Profile for ghoris     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
So I've pretty much written off the Labour Party under Blair as an opportunistic, corporate, middle-hugging rogue's gallery with no discernable principles (gee, that sounds familiar.)

Anyhoo, I've decided to pull for the LibDems this time. They actually fit much more closely with my own personal political philosophy than any of the federal Canadian parties. Very curious that they've kind of morphed into a liberal-social-democratic party, albeit one without any historical ties to organized labour.

It's doubly interesting because historically most of the LibDems' growth potential has come from Tory marginals in southwest England, Surrey and the outer London suburbs. I was reading a column on the BBC website and someone expressed the view that the LibDems "have to walk a fine line" to try to appeal to dissatisfied Labour voters (often on the left of the party) while snagging Tory votes in the key marginals that will gain them more seats.

I tend to disagree, and I was wondering what anyone else thought of this theory.

My own view is that the LibDems are smart to run to the left. Historically, people tend to vote more for parties that campaign on the left but govern on the right. In Canada, *everyone* promises to spend more on health care, and the right ends up running for cover anytime there's a *hint* they might privatize.

I think that this time around, the LibDems' most fertile territory is to grab disaffected Labour voters and not spend a lot of time trying to convince people to switch from the Tories:
1) The Tories pretty much bottomed out in the last two elections, anyone who's still voting Tory is not likely to change and the Tories are moving up. A significant number Tory-LibDem switchers is unlikely, especially since those who want to toss out Labour are more likely to vote Tory since they're the main alternative. There's not a lot of Tory votes to be had.
2) Strategic voting is big in the UK, especially against Tories. There are a lot more pissed-off Labour voters out there this time rather than last time. A lot of them will stay at home, but a lot of them might be convinced to vote LibDem, especially in those key LibDem-Tory marginals. You won't get these folks out to the polls by sounding like ToryLite. But if you run to the left, you get all the Labour voters who are pissed off at Blair but don't want to see the party lose.

Just my (rather lengthy) $0.02. Sorry for the verbose post - I just don't get to discuss UK politics with a lot of people at work!


From: Vancouver | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged
kuri
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posted 14 April 2005 04:52 AM      Profile for kuri   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'm glad to see your verbose post, Ghoris. As a sometimes resident the UK scene I don't feel like something I can discuss it with the same confidence I do with Canadian politics, so it's nice to see a comparative post like that to illustrate some of the dynamics.

One area that I think the LibDems can really pick up upon is that of civil liberties. I think they've traditionally supported a large degree of political and individual freedom (I'm referring to flesh-and-blood individuals here, not legal-only individuals like corporations), and Labours' draconian laws and yet-to-be implementated proposals (like mandatory biometric i.d. cards) present a good opportunity for the LibDems to distinguish themselves from both Labour and the Cons. Also, I think a civil liberties platform (or featuring it) could attract both "tory marginals" and the left. Civil liberties have only become "left" due to the new security agenda of the right and 'centre', but they aren't intrinsically left, so that may be the way the LibDems can get a few p.o.'d Tories while still campaigning broadly from the left as they have.

Anyway, for those people who like political quizzes, I came across this one for the UK elections. It leaves out the smaller and regional parties, but it's still kind of interesting.

I got:
Labour -24
Conservative -65
Liberal Democrat +92
UK Independence Party -14
Green +30


From: an employer more progressive than rabble.ca | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
aRoused
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posted 14 April 2005 07:35 AM      Profile for aRoused     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Pity that poll didn't have Respect as an option, it would be interesting to see where you fell on that one with respect to the LibDems and Greens.

Oh, for what it's worth:
Labour -3
Tory -49
LibDem +61
UKIP -10
Green +34

Probably because I was neutral to too many questions that don't affect me in the slightest as an ex-pat.

[ 14 April 2005: Message edited by: aRoused ]


From: The King's Royal Burgh of Eoforwich | Registered: Dec 2001  |  IP: Logged
kuri
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posted 14 April 2005 08:12 AM      Profile for kuri   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Respect are interesting, if only for being George Galloway's refuge from Labour, and for highlighting the civil liberties issues that I thought could be the LibDem niche.

I notice their commentary on the EU constitution repeats a few common misconceptions but they're hardly alone in that.

I'm not sure what their effect will be on the overall vote distibution outside of Galloway's district. They may be too small to have much of an effect. If they could mobilize the Muslim vote (as I think they're trying to do) there could be some upsets maybe? But I don't think Muslims will be become a voting block in any sense and I remember seeing a few reports that some prominent Muslim leaders were advocating a vote boycott.


From: an employer more progressive than rabble.ca | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
aRoused
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posted 14 April 2005 09:44 AM      Profile for aRoused     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
They're small, they *do* have a sitting MP IIRC, East London or something like that. For those wondering, they formed out of the antiwar protests (hence why Galloway is in with them now), and have a lot of unionist people in their tent now that Labour isn't really about the 'labour' anymore.

I had them touted to me as a better choice than the LibDems, who apparently have in the past said nearly anything to get themselves elected, even taking on some very Tory-like policies.


From: The King's Royal Burgh of Eoforwich | Registered: Dec 2001  |  IP: Logged
NDP Newbie
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posted 16 April 2005 04:44 AM      Profile for NDP Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Outside of London, you should back the most electable party out of the SNP, PC, and the LibDems.

The U.K. needs a coalition of leftists and civil libertarians very badly.


From: Cornwall, ON | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
NDP Newbie
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posted 18 April 2005 01:49 PM      Profile for NDP Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I "love" the new Tory ads.

Are you drinking what we're drinking?


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Erstwhile
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posted 18 April 2005 02:11 PM      Profile for Erstwhile     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Your expected outcome:
Liberal Democrat

Your actual outcome:

Labour 12
Conservative -37
Liberal Democrat 56
UK Independence Party -9
Green 36

A bit more of a pro-Labour result than I was expecting, but given the platforms this time around I wasn't surprised to find I'm far more of a LibDem than a Blairite. But like others I would've liked to have seen Respect in there was well.


From: Deepest Darkest Saskabush | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 18 April 2005 04:10 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
George Galloway of Respect is also a Catholic anti-abortion fanatic. That disqualifies him from being worthy of any support in my view.

To me one issue that trumps all others is being socially liberal. people who are part of the rligious right - no matter what their views on the war in Iraq, must be squashed like a bug.


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lagatta
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posted 18 April 2005 05:03 PM      Profile for lagatta     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Well, I sure wouldn't vote for someone who was anti-abortion, homophobic etc but it does not trump opposing the war on Iraq, unless you think the death of countless thousands of people for oil and hegemony is a mere detail. I'm sure glad I don't live in that riding.
From: Se non ora, quando? | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
aka Mycroft
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posted 18 April 2005 05:04 PM      Profile for aka Mycroft     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
It's quite shocking that the British Socialist Workers Party (the sister organization of the International Socialists in Canada) have so enthusiastically rushed to the common denominator that they are willing to run with Galloway in RESPECT and abandon their stands on gay rights, feminism and choice. Galloway has even gone so far as to come out in favour of capital punishment!
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NDP Newbie
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posted 18 April 2005 05:22 PM      Profile for NDP Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
http://www.respectcoalition.org/index.php?ite=506

Anti-choice?

Anti-gay?

Their language is even stronger than the NDP's.

Can somebody explain to me why Respect and Green are running separate candidates?

I can't tell their policies aprt.


From: Cornwall, ON | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
aRoused
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posted 19 April 2005 07:04 AM      Profile for aRoused     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think largely because the Greens didn't want to get in the same tent (tent? boat?) as the rest of the parties that formed Respect.

I'll pigeonhole my Respect-campaigning colleague about the anti-abortion thing, I can't imagine she'd support a party with even a hint of that around it.


From: The King's Royal Burgh of Eoforwich | Registered: Dec 2001  |  IP: Logged
aka Mycroft
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posted 19 April 2005 10:07 AM      Profile for aka Mycroft     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
To be clear, RESPECT is not anti-abortion. Galloway, their unofficial leader, is. RESPECT has no position on abortion, gay rights etc but since Galloway is their most prominent candidate and the only one with an outside chance of being elected...
From: Toronto | Registered: Aug 2004  |  IP: Logged
kuri
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posted 19 April 2005 10:08 AM      Profile for kuri   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Maybe Galloway is just Respect's Desjarlais?
From: an employer more progressive than rabble.ca | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
aka Mycroft
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posted 19 April 2005 10:31 AM      Profile for aka Mycroft     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by dokidoki:
Maybe Galloway is just Respect's Desjarlais?

That only works if you think of Desjarlais as NDP leader and with the NDP as having no party policy on choice, gay rights etc.


From: Toronto | Registered: Aug 2004  |  IP: Logged
Willowdale Wizard
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posted 19 April 2005 11:20 AM      Profile for Willowdale Wizard   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
a bit more on the george galloway-oona king fight in london's east end ...

to be precise, respect has a single MP (galloway) who is the MP for glasgow kelvin (he was ejected from labour). as far as i'm aware, they have one council seat nationwide (as opposed to 60 seats for the greens).

if you want to keep up on UK national news coverage of the election, you could do worse than BBC's newsnight programme (and their "newsnight one" chopper) and channel 4's factcheck website.


From: england (hometown of toronto) | Registered: Jan 2003  |  IP: Logged
aka Mycroft
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posted 19 April 2005 11:39 AM      Profile for aka Mycroft     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think the article loses the plot when it compares Galloway to Oswald Mosley.

[ 19 April 2005: Message edited by: aka Mycroft ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Aug 2004  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Greeny
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posted 19 April 2005 01:36 PM      Profile for West Coast Greeny     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
AHHHH!!!

LIBDEM - 76
GREENS - 74
LABOUR - 5
UKINDP - -18
CONSEV - -50

Not Green! WHAT!?!?!


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Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 19 April 2005 09:21 PM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Galloway has a strong record on broad leftist social issues, and he is definitely a socialist, but - and I say this having been one of his constituents for a good few years - he is quite barmy. A pity - the guy's heart is definitely in the right place, but there's something not quite right there.
From: Calgary | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Vansterdam Kid
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posted 19 April 2005 10:13 PM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I thought the UK Indpendence party was neo-fascist so I'm dissapointed I didn't recieve more of a minus for them. Although apparently they're slightly left economically, so that unfortunatley ruined my results with regards to that.

Anyways here's my results. And I did expect Liberal Democrat.

Labour 6
Conservative -27
Liberal Democrat 46
UK Independence Party -3
Green 26


From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
the bard
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posted 19 April 2005 11:20 PM      Profile for the bard     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The electionprediction webpage hasn't been updated for the UK election
From: Toronto | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged
Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 20 April 2005 12:19 AM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I was -
Labour +8
Con -87
LibDem +120
UKIP -38
Green +80

From: Calgary | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
kuri
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posted 21 April 2005 11:31 AM      Profile for kuri   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Europe - the missing issue

And it has been, although I feel that was strategic on Blair's part. By having a (constitutionally unnecessary) referendum on the European 'constitution' later on, he can make sure that the Tories (and UKIP and anyone else) cannot campaign on a Euroskeptic note. This is in contrast to 2001, where monetary union was a big issue.


From: an employer more progressive than rabble.ca | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
NDP Newbie
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posted 21 April 2005 01:58 PM      Profile for NDP Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The UKIP is the BJP to the BNP's ShivSena.
From: Cornwall, ON | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
obscurantist
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posted 21 April 2005 07:11 PM      Profile for obscurantist     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by the bard:
The electionprediction webpage hasn't been updated for the UK election
I know, it's a pity, because this will certainly be a more interesting race to predict than in 2001, but I assume they've decided to focus their resources on the BC election, the date of which has been known for a long time. The two campaigns overlapped in 2001 as well, but not as closely as they will this year.

The rest of us are complaining about possibly having a BC election and a Canadian federal election the one right after the other, or even at the same time. Just think how the poor Election Prediction Project people must be feeling about it! I wonder if they'll be able to organize a page about the federal election if it's held in the next few months.


From: an unweeded garden | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Papal Bull
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posted 23 April 2005 12:16 PM      Profile for Papal Bull   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Labour are sell outs, from what I have heard from my British friend. She also claims that she would like to see the Conservatives crawl into a hole and shut up about her and the others in the GLBT (or however you'd like to arrange it, that's how she says it) community.

I took that little test on the net, I got:
Labor: 1
Conservative: -62
Lib. Dem: 98
UKIP: 0
Green: 98

I'm a little confused by those results, because they're kinda obvious with the Lib. Dem and Green ratings, but the UKIP...aren't they a little bit on the far right?


From: Vatican's best darned ranch | Registered: Oct 2004  |  IP: Logged
kuri
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posted 23 April 2005 12:32 PM      Profile for kuri   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Well their raison d'être is simply withdrawal from the EU. This is their manifesto for this election. And yes, they seem generally quite small-l liberal. I only looked that the economy, defence and environment sections so far, but really every section seems to come back to getting out of the EU. Especially in the defence section, they're very anti-interventionist and against British forces action in unison with others, but for all of that they're conspicuously silent when it comes to Iraq.

Maybe it's the euro-skepticism that made them score higher than anticipated, PB? I can't tell really because I don't remember the test questions well enough. Some on the radical left actually share UKIP's anti-EU views if not the philosophy behind them.


From: an employer more progressive than rabble.ca | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
Willowdale Wizard
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posted 27 April 2005 12:45 PM      Profile for Willowdale Wizard   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
tony's not making someone very happy ....
From: england (hometown of toronto) | Registered: Jan 2003  |  IP: Logged
kuri
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posted 27 April 2005 12:55 PM      Profile for kuri   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
OMG! And lightening strikes twice?

quote:
Mr Blair's plane has been hit by lightning before, during a trip to Washington.

You'd think, for a religious man, that Blair might have thought that a sign.


From: an employer more progressive than rabble.ca | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
robbie_dee
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posted 28 April 2005 02:17 PM      Profile for robbie_dee     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Anyone here think there will be an effect on the vote from the leak and subsequent publication of Lord Goldsmith's memo questioning the legality of the Iraq war?

I've found it very disheartening to follow the polls and coverage of the election so far, and see British voters by-and-large unwilling to punish Tony Bliar for what he did. Of course the Tories are no better, but I figured the Lib Dems would be at least over 25% in the polls, now.

[ 28 April 2005: Message edited by: robbie_dee ]


From: Iron City | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
fern hill
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posted 28 April 2005 05:03 PM      Profile for fern hill        Edit/Delete Post
Blair has released the memo. CBC

This has got to hurt them, doesn't it? War of questionable at least legality. Not showing the memo to his cabinet.


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kuri
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posted 28 April 2005 05:43 PM      Profile for kuri   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'm not holding my breath. They are the masters of spin.
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Doug
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posted 29 April 2005 03:52 AM      Profile for Doug   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Rough time for party leaders at TV townhall meeting

Especially Tony Blair.


From: Toronto, Canada | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
verbatim
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posted 29 April 2005 04:04 AM      Profile for verbatim   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Your expected outcome:
Green

Your actual outcome:

Labour 39
Conservative -34
Liberal Democrat 77
UK Independence Party -18
Green 79



I only guessed Green -- I actually don't know much about the LibDems.

Edited to add: Wow -- the Brits sure don't have town hall meetings like the Americans, do they? Do we even hold town halls in Canada's federal elections? I've never seen one that I recall.

[ 29 April 2005: Message edited by: verbatim ]


From: The People's Republic of Cook Street | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Doug
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posted 29 April 2005 04:12 AM      Profile for Doug   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by verbatim:

Edited to add: Wow -- the Brits sure don't have town hall meetings like the Americans, do they? Do we even hold town halls in Canada's federal elections? I've never seen one that I recall.

[ 29 April 2005: Message edited by: verbatim ]


That's not what it was called, but essentially that's what it was. And no, I don't recall one in Canada with all four leaders at the same time, no.


From: Toronto, Canada | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
kuri
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posted 29 April 2005 04:15 AM      Profile for kuri   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The thing about the town halls is that they take on an almost cleansing quality for the leaders. Tony Blair did this in the lead up to the war, going on television, getting booed and yelled at by people and then despite not changing his mind where he was clearly wrong, opinion of him improved just because people felt sorry for him. I've yet to see that this latest one will be different - but maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised.
From: an employer more progressive than rabble.ca | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
pogge
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posted 01 May 2005 12:07 AM      Profile for pogge   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Revealed: documents show Blair's secret plans for war

quote:
Tony Blair had resolved to send British troops into action alongside US forces eight months before the Iraq War began, despite a clear warning from the Foreign Office that the conflict could be illegal.

A damning minute leaked to a Sunday newspaper reveals that in July 2002, a few weeks after meeting George Bush at his ranch in Crawford, Texas, Mr Blair summoned his closest aides for what amounted to a council of war. The minute reveals the head of British intelligence reported that President Bush had firmly made up his mind to invade Iraq and overthrow Saddam Hussein, adding that "the intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy".

At the same time, a document obtained by this newspaper reveals the Foreign Office legal advice given to Mr Blair in March 2002, before he travelled to meet Mr Bush at his Texas ranch. It contains many of the reservations listed nearly a year later by the Attorney General in his confidential advice to the Prime Minister, which the Government was forced to publish last week, including the warning that the US government took a different view of international law from Britain or virtually any other country.
...
The minute revealed last night was of a meeting held in Downing Street on 23 July 2002. Signed by the Prime Minister's foreign policy adviser, Matthew Rycroft. It concluded: "We should work on the assumption that the UK would take part in any military action. But we needed a fuller picture of US planning before we could take any further decisions."

The minute records that the Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, had warned that the case against Saddam was "thin". He suggested that the Iraqi dictator should be forced into a corner by demanding the return of the UN weapons inspectors: if he refused, or the inspectors found WMD, there would be good cause for war.



I wonder if this might cause Tony a spot of trouble.

From: Why is this a required field? | Registered: Mar 2002  |  IP: Logged
josh
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posted 01 May 2005 10:52 AM      Profile for josh     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Election prediction:
quote:

TONY BLAIR is heading for a majority of between 90 and 100 seats on Thursday, according to an authoritative study that accurately predicted the outcome of the 1997 and 2001 elections.
The study, by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, directors of the Elections Centre at Plymouth University, gives a predicted vote share of 37% for Labour, 34% for the Conservatives and 21% for the Liberal Democrats. This would give Labour a 96- seat majority on a uniform national swing.

It is backed up by the latest Sunday Times-YouGov poll, which also shows Labour three points ahead of the Tories, down one on last week. The YouGov findings, 36% for Labour, 33% for the Tories and 23% for the Lib Dems, would produce a majority of 92 if repeated on Thursday.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,19809-1593638,00.html

Even though Labour would lose some 50 seats, the resulting would be unsatisfying. The one hope left is that polls showing Labour's vote far less motivated than the other parties' vote will bear fruit.


From: the twilight zone between the U.S. and Canada | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
thwap
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posted 01 May 2005 11:34 AM      Profile for thwap        Edit/Delete Post
A very good article by John Pilger on the significance of voting for Blair.

(If it hasn't already been posted.)


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Wilf Day
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posted 02 May 2005 09:39 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Blair Undermining Democracy, Says Greg Dyke

Greg Dyke, former BBC Director, has made extremely stinging criticisms of Tony Blair. (Dyke resigned after he said his position had been compromised by Lord Hutton's criticisms of BBC management. Parts of Andrew Gilligan's BBC reports of claims Downing Street "sexed up" a dossier on Iraq's illegal weapons were branded "unfounded" by Lord Hutton.)

quote:
“I do genuinely believe that our democracy has been undermined in the years since the Blair Government and I think another Blair Government would pose further dangers to our democracy.

“I believe what we have seen over eight years is the destruction of Cabinet government. Instead we have replaced it with a presidential system of government.

“I think that was made very clear by Mr Blair last week when he made it very clear it was his decision to go to war in Iraq, not his Cabinet.

“That’s not the democracy I’ve ever voted for.”

He said subsequently he realised the fateful BBC story was true – the dossier was “sexed up” and people inside Downing Street knew it was.

He said the Prime Minister should not have been allowed to get away with that.

“I read that this is the most supine Cabinet in history. That has to be the case.

“British government is based on the Cabinet holding the Prime Minister to account. We live in a system where the Prime Minister appoints them all.”

Mr Dyke, a Labour supporter for 40 years, pledged his allegiance this time to the Liberal Democrats.

Mr Dyke added: “We may have a situation where Labour get a significant majority with only 20% of the electorate voting for them. And that cannot sustain a democratic society.

“That’s not democracy, so I increasingly think we need some form of proportional representation.”



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Willowdale Wizard
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posted 04 May 2005 09:30 AM      Profile for Willowdale Wizard   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
there are a number of issues that i'm truly surprised didn't become election topics:

- prison, and especially, illiteracy in prison
- transport (i think labour made some committment to a regional newspaper in manchester on their streetcar system, but that's it)
- drugs (heroin use is 5x what it is, per capita, in the US)
- hunting
- europe


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Willowdale Wizard
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posted 04 May 2005 10:05 AM      Profile for Willowdale Wizard   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
mo mowlem, former UK northern ireland sec, writing in "the independent":

quote:
Despite being a lifelong Labour supporter, I have believed for a long time in the need for proportional representation. As an alternative socialist approach to economics has disappeared, we are seeing increasing convergence between the two main parties, and as both parties have to be bland to accommodate their broad churches of support, politics has increasingly lost its passion; and without passion, why should people join parties or even vote? It is all too easy to say, what difference does it make? Remember that even on something as contentious and unpopular as the Iraq war, the Tories voted with the Government.

The sad truth is that we cannot move on to a new politics where the views of the electorate can be more clearly delineated through proportional representation except by having a hung parliament and a Liberal Democrat leadership that sticks to its guns on this issue to give parliamentary support. I know Kennedy has said he will not form a coalition with any party, but there are ways that these things can be sorted out if the prize is good enough.



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aRoused
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posted 04 May 2005 10:25 AM      Profile for aRoused     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The latest Labour political broadcast is a scare ad, with the slogan: if one in ten Labour voters doesn't vote, you'll get Howard as Prime Minister (cue laundry list of his ills).

I doubt prison literacy could ever have become an election issue, given the attitude of the Tories (and more importantly, their Daily Mail/Telegraph reading voters) to prisoners. Plenty of them would rather bring back the noose.


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kuri
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posted 04 May 2005 10:29 AM      Profile for kuri   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Willowdale Wizard:
there are a number of issues that i'm truly surprised didn't become election topics:

....
- europe


I don't know about the others, but I think Blair effectively took Europe out of the campaign by having an unneccessary referendum on the European Constitution later on.


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John_D
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posted 05 May 2005 07:56 PM      Profile for John_D     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Polls are closed. Exit polls suggest a much reduced Labour majority. Declared seats are 3 Labour holds, with Labour losing around 8-10% of its vote and having it split several ways to other parties (Con, Lib Dem, BNP, etc).

Results available here

Edited to add - on further review, the Lib Dems seem to be doing better than the Tories at picking up Labour's lost votes.

Also, the first non-English result is in, from Rutherglen & Hamilton West. Easy Labour hold, and again the Lib Dems are the only opposition party to gain much. Even the SNP is down in this riding.

[ 05 May 2005: Message edited by: John_D ]


From: Workin' 9 to 2 in the 902. | Registered: May 2004  |  IP: Logged
John_D
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posted 05 May 2005 09:16 PM      Profile for John_D     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Only one seat has changed so far, from Labour to Tory. Labour 61, Tory 4, Lib Dem 3, SNP 1 at the moment. The Lib Dems seem to be well up in Labour held seats at the moment, the Tories much less so.
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The Hegemo
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posted 05 May 2005 09:53 PM      Profile for The Hegemo   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
BBC just projected a 68 seat Labour majority based on the seats that have already come in.
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Doug
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posted 05 May 2005 10:32 PM      Profile for Doug   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
In Bethnal Green, Labour MP Oona King has lost to George Galloway.
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John_D
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posted 05 May 2005 11:36 PM      Profile for John_D     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The Lib Dems have really improved their overall vote, up 5%. They've also made particularly big gains in Scotland, up 2 seats and 6.6% (with 3 incumbents yet to report).

Other surprises? The Tories are no longer solely an English party, they've won a seat in Wales (Monmouth). Labour lost its second safest seat in the country to an independent. The Tories also picked up several extra seats around London. The Lib Dems won a couple of seats in the traditionally VERY Labour friendly industrial cities of the north (ie, Leeds North West and Manchester Withington. In the later, the swing from Labour to Lib Dem was 17.3%!)

edited to add: The Tories have also just won a seat in Scotland, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale, and Tweeddale.

[ 05 May 2005: Message edited by: John_D ]


From: Workin' 9 to 2 in the 902. | Registered: May 2004  |  IP: Logged
Doug
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posted 05 May 2005 11:51 PM      Profile for Doug   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'm so pleased to see the Monster Raving Loony Party out in force again.

Anyway, here's the current projected share of the vote:

36% Labour
33% Conservative
23% Liberal Democrat
8% Others

In short, Labour have been immensely lucky when it comes to the vote splits in the constituencies.

[ 05 May 2005: Message edited by: Doug ]


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John_D
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posted 06 May 2005 12:17 AM      Profile for John_D     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The Lib Dems just got a 30.7% swing from Labour in the London riding of Brent East. This is presumably a localized anti-war protest vote, given the size of the shift.
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babblerwannabe
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posted 06 May 2005 01:15 AM      Profile for babblerwannabe     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Lib democrats got 15 percent swing from Labour in Cambridge.. sweet. They took the seat. heh
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Drinkmore
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posted 06 May 2005 01:17 AM      Profile for Drinkmore     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Labour -1
Conservative -17
Liberal Democrat 29
UKIP -12
Green 33
Scottish National Party 39
Scottish Socialist Party 35


You should vote: Scottish National Party The SNP is broadly left of centre. It supports the Euro as being the national currency rather than sterling, but does not support the European Constitution in its current form. The party supports progressive taxation, student grants and the abolition of tuition fees. The SNP approach on soft drugs is more relaxed with a focus on treatment rather than punishment of hard drug users. It supports debt relief and CO2 emission reductions.


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Stockholm
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posted 06 May 2005 01:26 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
The Lib Dems just got a 30.7% swing from Labour in the London riding of Brent East. This is presumably a localized anti-war protest vote, given the size of the shift.

The Liberal Dems won that seat last year in a byelection but the swing they show is from the 2001 election.


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Willowdale Wizard
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posted 06 May 2005 05:40 AM      Profile for Willowdale Wizard   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
sarah teather, the lib dem winner in brent east, has supposedly been a good constituency MP since her by-election win last year.

the green party did well in certain seats (brighton pavillion, lewisham, norwich south), and in glasgow, they tended to outpoll the SSP when running head to head.

reg keys, whose son was killed in iraq, ran as an independent in sedgefield (tony blair's riding), and he won over 10% of the vote. in the televised, after-the-vote-count-is-announced speeches, he really ripped a strip off tony blair.


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josh
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posted 06 May 2005 07:18 AM      Profile for josh     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Results with 25 seats not declared:
quote:

Party Seats + - Net
LAB 353 0 47 -47
CON 196 36 3 +33
LD 60 16 5 +11

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/constituencies/default.stm


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aRoused
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posted 06 May 2005 07:27 AM      Profile for aRoused     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Here's the results for my region. While I'm slightly gratified that LD is up, so is the BNP. Yetch. My constituency did what most did: keep the Labour candidate on, but his vote was cut by about 5%, most of which went LibDem.

For a laugh, scroll down: What in the blue blazes is a 'Death' party?

edit: Ah, they sound like MRLP splitters:

quote:
• The Prime Minister and Michael Howard may have all sorts of complicated plans to deal with the immigrant problem. Not so Damien Fleck, standing in the City of York under the banner of the Death Dungeons and Taxes Party.

His manifesto, covering one side of a scroll, says that immigrants will be repelled with boiling oil and longbows at all ports and airports, according to the York Evening Press.


[ 06 May 2005: Message edited by: aRoused ]


From: The King's Royal Burgh of Eoforwich | Registered: Dec 2001  |  IP: Logged
josh
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posted 06 May 2005 09:11 AM      Profile for josh     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Willowdale Wizard:

reg keys, whose son was killed in iraq, ran as an independent in sedgefield (tony blair's riding), and he won over 10% of the vote. in the televised, after-the-vote-count-is-announced speeches, he really ripped a strip off tony blair.

I saw that. It was great. Blair stood there with sort of a sick look on his face, while his wife was tearing up.


From: the twilight zone between the U.S. and Canada | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
Willowdale Wizard
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posted 06 May 2005 09:21 AM      Profile for Willowdale Wizard   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
CNN:

quote:
Reg Keys: "If this war had been justified by international law, I would have grieved and not campaigned. If weapons of mass destruction had been found in Iraq -- again I would have grieved, not campaigned. Tonight there are lessons to be learned. I hope in my heart that one day the prime minister may be able to say sorry. That one day he will say sorry to the families of the bereaved. And one day the prime minister may be able to visit wounded soldiers in hospital ... Now I can go to my son's grave with my head held high and say, 'At least I tried.'"

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skdadl
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posted 06 May 2005 09:22 AM      Profile for skdadl     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Hey! Perthshire went SNP! That's my favourite.

Plus Angus and Banff and Buchan -- and the western islands, all SNP. Dumfriesshire has probably often been Tory in the past -- very polite neck of the woods.


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Stockholm
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posted 06 May 2005 09:34 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
What's good about people voting for ethnic nationalism??? I'm glad to see the LibDems do better by getting some of the protest vote against Labour in Scotlanbd, but in my opinion, the world would be a better place isf ethnic nationalist parties like the SNP would shrivel up and die.
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Willowdale Wizard
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posted 06 May 2005 09:37 AM      Profile for Willowdale Wizard   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
the BNP polled 17% in barking (east london) and 9% in keighley (yorkshire).

BNP supporters also clashed with other supporters from other parties at the electoral count in glasgow. mohammad sarwar (the UK's first muslim MP when elected in 1997) convinced the 8 other non-BNP candidates to not share the stage with them when the results were announced.

[ 06 May 2005: Message edited by: Willowdale Wizard ]


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Anchoress
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posted 06 May 2005 09:42 AM      Profile for Anchoress     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'm not surprised about Barking, there's a large South Asian community in that area.
From: Vancouver babblers' meetup July 9 @ Cafe Deux Soleil! | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
skdadl
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posted 06 May 2005 09:43 AM      Profile for skdadl     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Stockholm, why don't you scroll back up a bit and read Drinkmore's summary of SNP policies? They are not an "ethnic nationalist" party.

I would much prefer to see everyone voting SSP, mind you, but the SSP has been having some wee difficulties lately, and that would not have been realistic.


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skdadl
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posted 06 May 2005 09:46 AM      Profile for skdadl     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Keighly would be the riding also of Haworth, home of the Bronte sisters. Sad to hear that people are going BNP up there. Why?

(Am I right in remembering that Keighly is pronounced keethly?)


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Willowdale Wizard
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posted 06 May 2005 09:52 AM      Profile for Willowdale Wizard   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
a bit more on the BNP in keighley ...

quote:
BNP leader Nick Griffin is standing in nearby Keighley, which has a significant Asian community. The BNP there has made allegations that young Asian men have recruited young white girls for prostitution. It’s an issue which is being investigated, but for the BNP it’s just a golden opportunity to drive a wedge into the community and spread its racism. Griffin gave a media conference on the Keighley issue before the local elections last year using a pub in Calderdale, ironically named The Friendly, for the event. Journalists were given a preview of an election video made by the BNP in Keighley, with interviews with ‘ordinary’ local people, expressing their concerns. The ordinary people were well-known to anti-fascist campaigners: they were experienced BNP activists and officers. Keighley is partly in the Bradford district. Four BNP candidates were elected to Bradford District Council in local elections last year, giving Griffin the foothold he wanted.

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Willowdale Wizard
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posted 06 May 2005 10:06 AM      Profile for Willowdale Wizard   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
michael howard, conservative party leader, says he will step down.
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josh
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posted 06 May 2005 10:41 AM      Profile for josh     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
So which loser will the Conservatives turn to next, I wonder.

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/election/story/0,15803,1478074,00.html

[ 06 May 2005: Message edited by: josh ]


From: the twilight zone between the U.S. and Canada | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 06 May 2005 11:31 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Stockholm, why don't you scroll back up a bit and read Drinkmore's summary of SNP policies? They are not an "ethnic nationalist" party.

Well then why do they have to exist? If all that matters to them are social and economic policies then surely between the Labour party, the Conservative Party, the LibDems and various leftwing fringe parties, there are national parties that offer the same policies. I just don't believe in regional splinter parties. Just like i wish the Bloc Quebecois didn't exist. people should vote for the national interest.


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lagatta
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posted 06 May 2005 11:38 AM      Profile for lagatta     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Here, "voting in the national interest" would be voting Bloc. I voted NDP, because I think class interests trump all else. So did André Frappier, the NDP candidate I worked for.
The SNP and SSP both support greater autonomy, up to independence, for Scotland. That does not make them necessarily "ethnic nationalists", ie people who think only Scots of pure Celtic stock (whatever that is) are truly Scots.

In many States, there are different socialist or labour parties from different nations, simply because the labour movements and lefts have different histories. That is not only true in Canada, the UK or the Spanish state, but also in Belgium, for example (I believe to a certain extent in Switzerland).


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Stockholm
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posted 06 May 2005 11:42 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
That's why the Labour Party in Scotland is called the "Scottish Labour Party" and it is officially seprate from the English Labour party.

But look, Scotland now has its own assembly with powers like a Canadian province (a huge advance from the system before where Scotland was ruled directly by the Scottish office in London). The SNP has what it wanted, now why don't they just disband.


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Albireo
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posted 06 May 2005 11:44 AM      Profile for Albireo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Doug:
In Bethnal Green, Labour MP Oona King has lost to George Galloway.
And how!
quote:
Oona King was deposed as the MP after former Labour MP Mr Galloway forced a 26.2% swing in his favour, following a bitterly fought campaign.

Mr Galloway, who attacked Tony Blair in his acceptance speech, fought on an anti-Iraq war manifesto which appealed to the large local Muslim population.

Ms King was one of Tony Blair's most loyal supporters and backed the war.

Taking to the podium after his victory was announced, Mr Galloway said: "Mr Blair, this defeat is for Iraq and the other defeats that New Labour has received this evening are for Iraq.

"All the people you have killed and all the loss of life have come back to haunt you and the best thing that the Labour Party can do is sack you tomorrow morning."


Tell us how you really feel, George!

BBC: Shock win for Galloway in London


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kuri
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posted 06 May 2005 11:49 AM      Profile for kuri   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
But look, Scotland now has its own assembly with powers like a Canadian province (a huge advance from the system before where Scotland was ruled directly by the Scottish office in London). The SNP has what it wanted, now why don't they just disband.

Scotland doesn't have nearly the same powers of a Canadian province. I don't think any nationalist party should disband until they gain their own Home Office powers. Keeping Westminister in charge of immigration, and many parts of law is a real hold on Holyrood's plans for development because Westminister stops immigration when Holyrood is trying to increase it, and it's kept rather arbitrarily unclear when Scots law applies and when it doesn't. The SNP and SSP are needed to make sure that Westminster doesn't reverse the devolution through the back door, or hold Scotland's ties to Brussels back as they've been trying to do by working against the Committee of the Regions in the EU. They are needed. Same for Plaid Cymru.


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Stockholm
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posted 06 May 2005 12:14 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Maybe I'm just too much of idealist but i just wish people would vote for parties that reflect their social and economic class instead of voting for parties that appeal to tribal loyalties.
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lagatta
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posted 06 May 2005 12:18 PM      Profile for lagatta     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
"Tribal loyalties"? Stockholm, that is extremely offensive language.
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kuri
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posted 06 May 2005 12:26 PM      Profile for kuri   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I find much of the rhetoric around class to take on an almost tribal character anyway in the UK. It's not like it's something people can really change. If Scottish nationalists are supporting progressive policies then they should be supported. It sets up a dynamic of competitive federalism, where people in the north of England wonder why Scotland can have free education when Blair says it's impossible. Just as when people said cheap day-care was impossinble in Ontario, we had Quebec as a living couterexample. Redrawing boundaries is stupid in this day and age but acquiring policies areas on a national basis in order to make progressive policy makes sense if it wouldn't happen any other way.
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skdadl
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posted 06 May 2005 12:29 PM      Profile for skdadl     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The Scots and the Welsh haven't rejected the parliament at Westminster out of "tribal loyalties," Stockholm -- although you certainly seem capable of foul-mouthed bigotry.

The progressive vote in both nations is more consistent and higher, and certainly in the case of Scotland, Mrs Thatcher pretty much finished off any expectations that the union mattered to Scots any more. I am related to some of the last Scottish Tories, and even they started voting at least Labour in Thatcher's last years, and some of them SNP.


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Stockholm
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posted 06 May 2005 12:48 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
If Scottish nationalists are supporting progressive policies then they should be supported. It sets up a dynamic of competitive federalism, where people in the north of England wonder why Scotland can have free education when Blair says it's impossible.

If Scotland has any more progressive social policies than exist in England its no thanks to a useless party like the SNP. Its because Scotland is ruled by a coalition of the Scottish Labour Party and the Scottish Liberal Democrats. The SNP has never been part of the Scottish government because their results in the Scottish assembly elections have been so poor.


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skdadl
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posted 06 May 2005 01:11 PM      Profile for skdadl     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Its because Scotland is ruled by a coalition of the Scottish Labour Party and the Scottish Liberal Democrats.

It. Has. Nothing. To. Do. With. Anyone. Ruling. Anything.

If Scots support progressive policies, that is because Scots are overwhelmingly at least moderately progressive. Got it, Stockholm?

The Labour Party is generally considered a drag by activists, and you can see that in the results. Until recently, the SSP was looking promising for the future, and support for them is still substantial, in spite of their internal problems.

There hasn't been that much time for a genuinely local progressive party to coalesce, but I'm sure that one will. Blair has done almost as well as Thatcher did in alienating Scots from his own party (and in theory, the guy is a Scot).


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Stockholm
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posted 06 May 2005 01:37 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
But the SNP is hardly a socialist party. In fact the seats that they win are never in the Labour heartland in Scotland. They win formerly Conservative seats in the highlands.
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skdadl
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posted 06 May 2005 01:46 PM      Profile for skdadl     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Perthshire, lovely Perthshire

That map is interesting. Click on Angus, to the east, and the Dundee seats. (Dundee is one of the oldest and toughest of the old industrial cities.)

Highlanders are mostly not conservative, Stockholm. Put the SNP, Labour, LibDem, and SSP votes together -- that look like a conservative group to you?

The haute-Tory area was traditionally the Borders, and maybe parts of cities like Stirling, which, as you can see, has gone Labour (for some time now). Dumfriesshire is Borders and went Con, but Berwickshire went LibDem, as did West Edinburgh.

I think you'll have to accept, Stockholm, that when old Scottish Tories wake up, they vote LibDem or Labour. That has become the conservative default in Scotland. Everyone else is moving further.


From: gone | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
swallow
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posted 06 May 2005 01:52 PM      Profile for swallow     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The SNP are hardly "tartan Tories" any more. Labour supporters spouting Stocks' type of rhetoric are the best campaigning tool the SNP has today.

As to the entire election, is it just me, or have all three parties really come out as losers?


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babblerwannabe
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posted 06 May 2005 01:53 PM      Profile for babblerwannabe     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
one thing for sure is that the projection is wrong; labour didnt win anything close to a majority of 60 seats, they only got 30 something more than needed for a majority.
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aka Mycroft
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posted 06 May 2005 02:01 PM      Profile for aka Mycroft     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by babblerwannabe:
one thing for sure is that the projection is wrong; labour didnt win anything close to a majority of 60 seats, they only got 30 something more than needed for a majority.

I belive that 30 seats more than is needed for a majority is what is referred to as a majority of 60 seats because its 60 seats more than the number of seats held by all opposition parties.


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John_D
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posted 06 May 2005 02:13 PM      Profile for John_D     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Mind if I change the subject away from Stockholm's anti-Scotism?

The results in Wales, to me, are more interesting than those in Scotland. The Conservatives really made a breakthrough there, grabbing 3 of the 40 seats (keep in mind how regionalized the Tory seats had been before, and getting 3 in Wales is a major victory for them there. It makes them seem a lot less like a strictly "Middle England" party). The Lib Dems also picked up 2 extra seats, including one in Cardiff, and Labour fell back from 34 to 29. The nationalists didn't do nearly as well here as they did in Scotland, either - Plaid Cymru ended up losing a seat (to the LDs) and missing their top target for a pickup. Any theories as to why Scottish nationalism is doing so much better than Welsh, seemingly? And why the Tories made up so much more ground in Wales than Scotland?

(The 3 Tory seats aren't all border seats, either. Monmouth is, but the other two aren't.)


From: Workin' 9 to 2 in the 902. | Registered: May 2004  |  IP: Logged
babblerwannabe
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posted 06 May 2005 02:13 PM      Profile for babblerwannabe     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
oh right. okay . i got it now..oops.Thanks for your explaination. I was wondering what the hell was wrong with the projection!

[ 06 May 2005: Message edited by: babblerwannabe ]


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Drinkmore
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posted 06 May 2005 02:28 PM      Profile for Drinkmore     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
But the SNP is hardly a socialist party.

Well, that's what I thought but when I did this survey, I got this result:

quote:
Labour -1
Conservative -17
Liberal Democrat 29
UKIP -12
Green 33
Scottish National Party 39
Scottish Socialist Party 35


You should vote: Scottish National Party The SNP is broadly left of centre. It supports the Euro as being the national currency rather than sterling, but does not support the European Constitution in its current form. The party supports progressive taxation, student grants and the abolition of tuition fees. The SNP approach on soft drugs is more relaxed with a focus on treatment rather than punishment of hard drug users. It supports debt relief and CO2 emission reductions.


Everything else aside, I couldn't support Labour, because of the Iraq war. This site pegs LDP to the right of SNP and in fact gives me an SNP score close to SSP. Go figure.

[ 06 May 2005: Message edited by: Drinkmore ]


From: the oyster to the eagle, from the swine to the tiger | Registered: Nov 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 06 May 2005 03:13 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Any theories as to why Scottish nationalism is doing so much better than Welsh, seemingly? And why the Tories made up so much more ground in Wales than Scotland?

Actually Scottish nationalism isn't doing very well at all. The SNP only took 18% of the vote in Scotland - a decline of 3% from 2001. Their seat total went from 4 to 6 (out of 60), but only because in a couple of seats their vote stayed the same while there was a big shift from the Labour Party to the LibDems and the SNP came up the middle.

The reason why Plaid Cymru does even worse is because Welsh identity seems to be a lot weaker than Scottish identity. The vast majority of the Welsh can't speak a word of the Welsh language and if they live in any of the major Welsh cities - they will often tell you that they identify more with being English than with being Welsh. They call themsleves Wenglish.


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skdadl
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posted 06 May 2005 03:31 PM      Profile for skdadl     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Here are the photographs of the members of the Welsh National Assembly.

Notice something interesting about that collection of parliamentarians?


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Mr. Magoo
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posted 06 May 2005 03:37 PM      Profile for Mr. Magoo   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post

This guy's the only one with a desk, therefore he's "the Mole"?


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ghoris
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posted 06 May 2005 03:38 PM      Profile for ghoris     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'm quite distressed at the Northern Ireland results. The Unionist/Protestant vote is abandoning the more moderate Ulster Unionists and coalescing around the extremist Democratic Unionist Party, led by the disgusting Rev. Ian Paisley (some on this board may disagree with my choice of adjective but this man does nothing but preach hate and intolerance). The UUP has lost five of its six seats - four to the DUP and one to the SDLP (moderate Catholic/republican party) - they've pretty much been wiped out at Westminster.

The SDLP has made only minor gains and Sinn Fein has held its own. I fear Northern Ireland is becoming more and more polarized and extremist positions on both sides are gaining popularity.

Update: UUP leader (and Nobel Peace Prize co-winner) David Trimble has just lost his seat to the DUP.


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ghoris
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posted 06 May 2005 03:51 PM      Profile for ghoris     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by skdadl:

Notice something interesting about that collection of parliamentarians?

Well, aside from the preponderance of members with the surnames Davies and Jones, it looks to me like it's exactly 50-50 men and women.


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skdadl
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posted 06 May 2005 04:13 PM      Profile for skdadl     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
ghoris wins.

There are interesting things happening in Wales, I suspect -- more interesting than what one might have taken from Stockholm's (usual) reductionism.

I also was disturbed to see DUP gains, ghoris. Do you think this is a reaction to Sinn Fein stupidities of the last while? Och, it's a slow process. But Paisley is poison, I agree.


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Stockholm
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posted 06 May 2005 05:15 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Actually, the DUP and Paisley have been a lot more conciliatory lately than they used to be. In the end, his people need to sign on to any final agreement and it may be on these "only Nixon could go to China" situations where ultimately he will have to be the one who legitimizes a peace agreement.

Apparently, Paisley pretends to be a hateful curmudgeon when the cameras are rolling, but in private he often dines with SDLP leader John Hume and has even been spotting giving Bernadette Devlin of Sinn Fein a lift to the airport!


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Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 06 May 2005 08:00 PM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
What's good about people voting for ethnic nationalism??? I'm glad to see the LibDems do better by getting some of the protest vote against Labour in Scotlanbd, but in my opinion, the world would be a better place isf ethnic nationalist parties like the SNP would shrivel up and die.


Stick to what you know, Stockholm.


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Stockholm
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posted 07 May 2005 12:32 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Why don't you tell us what YOU know.

One thing I find amusing is how some Canadians who are probably one 16th Scottish and whose families have been on this side of the ocean for 200 years, suddenly decide that it is chic to be a big Scottish nationalist and talk about the virtues of the SNP. Meanwhile over in Scotland, the SNP only wins a paltry 17% of the vote and has been steadily losing support with each election. 83% of Scots prefer to vote for NATIONAL UK-wide parties.

I have more faith in what Scottish people in Scotland think about the SNP than do in some Scottish-Canadian wannabes think who probably dress up their kilts and sporrans once a year and put on a fake Scottish accent!


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'lance
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posted 07 May 2005 12:44 AM      Profile for 'lance     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
Why don't you tell us what YOU know.

One thing I find amusing is how some Canadians who are probably one 16th Scottish and whose families have been on this side of the ocean for 200 years, suddenly decide that it is chic to be a big Scottish nationalist and talk about the virtues of the SNP. Meanwhile over in Scotland, the SNP only wins a paltry 17% of the vote and has been steadily losing support with each election. 83% of Scots prefer to vote for NATIONAL UK-wide parties.

I have more faith in what Scottish people in Scotland think about the SNP than do in some Scottish-Canadian wannabes think who probably dress up their kilts and sporrans once a year and put on a fake Scottish accent!


Ah, Stockholm?

SLB's advice was more than usually wise; and your response more than usually asinine.

And not to speak for him, or anything, but I happen to know his Scottish accent is quite genuine.


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Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 07 May 2005 12:50 AM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think, having campaigned for the SNP in four elections, before emigrating to Canada as an adult, I know the most about that particular party than anybody else on this thread.
How's that faith coming along, Stockholm?

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Stockholm
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posted 07 May 2005 12:52 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
OK, then why don't you tell us. Why do 83% of Scottish voters totally reject the SNP and prefer to vote Labour or LD or even Conservative?
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'lance
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posted 07 May 2005 01:09 AM      Profile for 'lance     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Well, why don't you tell us: how do you know that "83% of Scottish voters totally reject the SNP"? How do you know that some fraction of that group don't think: Well, I'd like to vote SNP, but by definition they'll never form a government, and if enough of us hereabouts vote for them, it's just possible that Tory bastard will get in, and at least the local Labour man was against that bloody war, so what the hell"?

Ans.: you don't.


From: that enchanted place on the top of the Forest | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 07 May 2005 01:16 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
There are two simple answers to that.

1. The Tories are so moribund in Scotland that apart from maybe one or two ridings - no one in Scotland seriously worries about the Tories winning any seats on a split vote.

2. In the elections for the Scottish Assembly the have proportional representation - no need to fear any vote splitting and whoever you elect has a chance to rule over Scotland. Result: a similarly miserable 18 or 19% for the SNP.

I know that a lot of middle class leftists in Canada get swept away by the romance of "Viva la revolution ethnic nationalism" - they they think it it would be cute if more Scottish people starting pushing to be independent and they like the idea of joing the "struggle".

One small problem. The vast majority of Scottish people who actually live in Scotland have no interest in Scotland becoming an independent country and have no use for the SNP.


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'lance
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posted 07 May 2005 01:19 AM      Profile for 'lance     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
I know that a lot of middle class leftists in Canada get swept away by the romance of "Viva la revolution ethnic nationalism" - they they think it it would be cute if more Scottish people starting pushing to be independent and they like the idea of joing the "struggle".

OK; name three.


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aRoused
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posted 07 May 2005 07:31 AM      Profile for aRoused     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Ohferfuchsakes.

SNP =/= BNP. Clear?


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skdadl
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posted 07 May 2005 08:01 AM      Profile for skdadl     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Yeah, that's the thing, isn't it, aRoused. Call a party a "national party," and Stockholm the fundamentalist concludes it's the BNP.

What I thought was funny was Stockholm's argument about 83 per cent of Scots not voting SNP. Take that argument and just substitute the nouns "Canadians" and "NDP." Hee. (The percentages are maybe a touch off, of late, anyway.)


From: gone | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
josh
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posted 07 May 2005 10:00 AM      Profile for josh     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Interesting to note that with one seat to be decided, the exit polls were spot on as to Labour's total. They have 356 and the exit polls predicted 357. The poll did overstate the Conserative's support by 12 seats, and understated the Lib Dems support by about 10. Also interesting is that Labour is ending up with only 35% of the vote. Nice going Tony.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/default.stm


From: the twilight zone between the U.S. and Canada | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 07 May 2005 10:17 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Yeah, that's the thing, isn't it, aRoused. Call a party a "national party," and Stockholm the fundamentalist concludes it's the BNP.

I never equated the SNP with the BNP. That's not my point.

The only point I'm making - which no one seems to want to address - is that I philosophically have an intense dislike of parties that are based on an appeal to nationalism or tribalism. I reject, the SNP, I reject Plaid Cymru, I reject all the parties in northern Irelanbd except the small Alliance Party and maybe the SDLP, I reject the Basque nationalist parties in Spain, I reject the BQ/PQ and if you can think of any other etnnically based parties in the world, I'm sure I reject them too.

To me when people start voting purely on the basis of their ethnicity/nationalsity - its bad news for humanity.

I prefer people to vote for parties that do NOT attempt to appeal to nationalism. I like parties that openly want votes from people of all races, all religions, all parts of the country, all nationalities.

I consider myself to be more of a citizen of the world than anything else and I think the world would be a better place if people identifies themselves more as humans and less as members of a tribe.

[ 07 May 2005: Message edited by: Stockholm ]


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Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 07 May 2005 02:30 PM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
OK, then why don't you tell us. Why do 83% of Scottish voters totally reject the SNP and prefer to vote Labour or LD or even Conservative?

Do you not notice the extraordinary irony in this, Stockholm? Hell, you can replace the word Scottish with Canadian, and SNP with another three letter party (you'd only need to change the S to a D), you wouldn't even need to change the percentage! Does that make the NDP a lost cause, Stockholm?
On edit - I see Skdadl has already covered this angle. Still, I reckon it bears repeating for the hilarious irony therein.

[ 07 May 2005: Message edited by: Screaming Lord Byron ]


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Wilf Day
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posted 07 May 2005 02:32 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Labour rebels target Blair:

quote:
With a majority of only 66, just 34 rebels could stop him in his tracks, if supported by the opposition parties.

. . .there are 37 hard-core rebels (who rebelled on all four key issues in the last Parliament, including student tuition fees, foundation hospitals, Iraq, and the prevention of terrorism act), and another 29 soft rebels, who voted against the government on at least two of those four issues.



From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 07 May 2005 02:33 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I could give all kinds of reasons why the NDP doesn't get the votes of about 80% of Canadians. But that is a question for another thread. This is about the British election. My question is why Scottish voters keep on so massively spurning the only party that explicitly favours Scottish independence?
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lagatta
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posted 07 May 2005 02:38 PM      Profile for lagatta     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
1. Please close this thread; it is too long.

2. Stockholm, isn't what you are saying below a tad ironic for a Zionist?

quote:
The only point I'm making - which no one seems to want to address - is that I philosophically have an intense dislike of parties that are based on an appeal to nationalism or tribalism. I reject, the SNP, I reject Plaid Cymru, I reject all the parties in northern Irelanbd except the small Alliance Party and maybe the SDLP, I reject the Basque nationalist parties in Spain, I reject the BQ/PQ and if you can think of any other etnnically based parties in the world, I'm sure I reject them too.

To me when people start voting purely on the basis of their ethnicity/nationalsity - its bad news for humanity.


3. Problem is, you are backing parties supporting the dominant tribe. That is no more internationalist.


From: Se non ora, quando? | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 07 May 2005 02:45 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'm not a Zionist. If I was I would be living in Israel not in Canada.

I don't understand your point about other parties representing the dominant ethnicity. The British Labour Party is not some colonizing English Party that just wants to subjugate Scotland. In fact many of its leading figures are Scottish!


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skdadl
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posted 07 May 2005 02:48 PM      Profile for skdadl     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
The British Labour Party is not some colonizing English Party that just wants to subjugate Scotland. In fact many of its leading figures are Scottish!


Oh, barf. Oh, triple barf. Oh, quintuple barf.

Barf barf barf.


From: gone | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 07 May 2005 02:57 PM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
There are two simple answers to that.


2. In the elections for the Scottish Assembly the have proportional representation - no need to fear any vote splitting and whoever you elect has a chance to rule over Scotland. Result: a similarly miserable 18 or 19% for the SNP.

One small problem. The vast majority of Scottish people who actually live in Scotland have no interest in Scotland becoming an independent country and have no use for the SNP.


Scottish Parliamentary Election Results 1999

Labour
Constituency vote - 38.8%
Regional vote - 33.6%

56 MSPs

SNP
Constituency vote - 28.7%
Regional vote - 27.3%
35 MSPs

Scottish Green Party
(explicitly support an independent Scotland)
1 MSP

Scottish Socialist Party
(explicity support an independent Scotland)
1 MSP

Number of Scottish MSPs who favour independence - 37 MSPs.

Percentage of voters supporting pro-independence candidates -
Constituency vote - 29.75%
Regional vote - 32.84%

2003 Parliamentary Election Results

Labour
Constituency vote - 34.9%
Regional vote - 29.3%
50 MSPs

SNP
Constituency vote - 23.8%
Regional vote - 20.9%
27 MSPs

Scottish Green Party
(explicitly support an Independent Scotland)
7 MSPs

Scottish Socialist Party
(explicitly support an Independent Scotland)
6 MSPs

Independent Nationalist
1 MSP

Number of Scottish MSPs who favour independence - 41 MSPs.

Percentage of voters supporting pro-independence candidates -
Constituency vote - 29.99%
Regional vote - 35.86%

quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
My question is why Scottish voters keep on so massively spurning the only party that explicitly favours Scottish independence?

http://www.scottishsocialistparty.org/

'The SSP is a pro-independence party which stands for the break-up of the British state and the creation of a free Scottish socialist republic.'

http://www.answers.com/topic/scottish-green-party-1

'The Scottish Green Party is generally said to support Scottish independence, but recent manifesto commitments have only extended to further powers for the Scottish parliament. Certain MSPs, such as Patrick Harvie of Glasgow, have however been vocal in their individual support for independence.'

So - two explicitly pro-independence parties, one likely, depending on which of their representatives you ask. Either way, all three are nationalist parties, and between the three of them, plus independent nationalists such as Margo MacDonald, they've seen the nationalist cause grow in Holyrood, both in popular vote, and in seats.

Sorry, Stockholm, I wouldn't know how to answer such a false premise as your question. Like, I say - stick to what you know. I try to.

[ 07 May 2005: Message edited by: Screaming Lord Byron ]


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