quote:

---

VANCOUVER (CP) - Liberal leadership candidate Michael Ignatieff was put sharply on the defensive by his chief rivals Sunday and forced to disavow U.S. President George Bush's Iraq strategy.

"George Bush has made every mistake in Iraq and then some," Ignatieff said during a three-way exchange with Bob Rae and Stephane Dion.

"I don't stand with George Bush. I stand with the independence and freedom of the Kurdish and Shia people and believe that one day they will push this country out of the ditch."

---

Many prominent observers warned of the chaos likely to follow the attack he supported, and Ignatieff himself predicted before the invasion that it would take at least a 'decade' to consolidate order in the country:

quote:

---

Order, let alone democracy, will take a decade to consolidate in Iraq.

---

Since he wasn't losing any sleep over the decade of disorder he predicted back in early 2003, he can hardly claim today that the chaos we're now seeing was a totally unforeseeable consequence of the Bush administration's actions (as monumentally stupid as some of those have been).

Sensing the Professor's weakness, Rae has proved no dummy. Apparently having noticed that some of Ignatieff's most prominent pre-war statements (here and here) contain little or no mention of the Kurdish plight, Bob Rae responded with this:

quote:

---

Rae said Ignatieff's previous stated reasons for supporting the Iraq invasion had nothing to do with the oppression of Kurds and Shia Muslims by Saddam Hussein's Sunni-controlled dictatorship.

---

Oh, and one final point about the variable distance Ignatieff has tried to keep between himself and the Bush administration on Iraq.

In March 2003, as the invasion was beginning (and Ignatieff was criticizing opponents of the war as appeasers of tyranny), he wrote this:

quote:

---

The bullying tone the president adopted in his diplomacy at the UN made it difficult to secure UN support.

---

Two months earlier, the same Michael Ignatieff had written this:

quote:

---

The United Nations lay dozing like a dog before the fire, happy to ignore Saddam, until an American president seized it by the scruff of the neck and made it bark. Multilateral solutions to the world's problems are all very well, but they have no teeth unless America bares its fangs.

---

Can someone remind me again why this person is taken seriously as an authority on international affairs?

[ 17 September 2006: Message edited by: sgm ]

In this post blogger Paul Wells recently took issue with Ignatieff's claim that his experience with the Kurds was the decisive factor in his support for the Iraq war.

(Or at least that's what I thought Wells was doing in linking to two lengthy pieces by Ignatieff on Iraq, neither of which made any substantial mention of the Kurds: here and here.)

I actually agree with this point, and would further adduce this 2003 piece and this other one, the first of which contains scant mention of the Kurds, and the second of which contains none at all (unless one understands a reference to the '25 million Iraqis' who will be better off without Saddam to refer to Ignatieff's searing experience with the Kurds a decade before).

Now apparently, judging by this post, Wells has been called to account by one Brad Davis, Ignatieff's National Director of Policy and Internet Strategy.

Director Davis has responded thus to Wells' post:

quote:

---

Thousands of Kurds were massacred at the hands of Saddam Hussein. Your post impliedly suggests that Ignatieff is facetiously relying on this genocide and his personal experience with the Kurdish people in 1992 while filming a documentary as an excuse for his support of the American and British intervention in Iraq.

There’s no excuse of convenience here. I encourage you to review the following, dating long before Ignatieff’s entry into politics:

---

Of course, Saddam's brutality is not in question.

Still, I think I may be missing something here, because it seems to me that if Ignatieff's team wants to support his claim that his feelings about the Kurds were decisive in his support for the Iraq war, they should provide examples of his pre-war writing in which the plight of the Kurds figures prominently.

While the Ignatieff texts on Iraq cited by Director Davis may well have been written 'long before Ignatieff’s entry into politics,' that frame of reference is, frankly, irrelevant.

(And actually, some of them appear to have been written well after his entry into Canadian politics.)

In any event, the issue is not what Ignatieff wrote between the time the Iraq war was launched and the time he decided to run for office in Canada.

The issue is to what degree Ignatieff's pre-war writings support his present claim that the suffering of the Kurds was decisive in determining his support for the US/UK invasion of Iraq.

In my view, Director Davis's e-mail and list do not address that issue directly.

Hence, my confusion.

[ 18 September 2006: Message edited by: sgm ]

[ 18 September 2006: Message edited by: Paul Gross ]

quote:

---

I figure he will get 40% on the first ballot.

---

I think that's high, judging by this recent poll of Liberals who will be selecting delegates for the leadership vote:

quote:

---

Fresh insights into the race are contained in an exclusive poll of Liberal Party members conducted by the Strategic Counsel for The Globe and Mail/CTV News, which shows that Mr. Ignatieff, while slightly ahead of Mr. Rae and Mr. Dion, is nowhere near the level required to establish a commanding lead on the first ballot and lacks second- or third-ballot appeal.

The survey differs from other leadership polls in that it queries only Liberal Party members who will be selecting delegates next week for the party's convention, which takes place Nov. 28 to Dec. 2 in Montreal.

[snip]

Mr. Ignatieff is the first choice of 19 per cent of Liberals surveyed, with Mr. Rae running a tight second at 17 per cent and Mr. Dion just behind with 13 per cent. Gerard Kennedy and Ken Dryden — with 9 per cent each — are tied for fourth. Scott Brison garnered 3 per cent of the vote and Joe Volpe 2 per cent, while Martha Hall Findlay got 1 per cent and Hedy Fry less than 1 per cent.

[snip]

The poll was conducted from party membership lists provided to The Globe by the campaigns of Mr. Brison, Mr. Dryden and Mr. Dion. The poll of 1,000 Liberals was taken between Sept. 12 and 18 and is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 95 per cent of the time.

[snip]

According to the poll, Mr. Rae is the second choice of 23 per cent of party members and Mr. Dion is the second choice of 17 per cent. Mr. Ignatieff is well down, with only 12 per cent picking him as their second choice.

---

quote:

---

Michael Ignatieff has a slender lead among Liberals in the race to become national party leader and could well lose to Bob Rae or Stéphane Dion, both of whom possess greater potential for growth at the leadership convention.

Fresh insights into the race are contained in an exclusive poll of Liberal Party members conducted by the Strategic Counsel for The Globe and Mail/CTV News, which shows that Mr. Ignatieff, while slightly ahead of Mr. Rae and Mr. Dion, is nowhere near the level required to establish a commanding lead on the first ballot and lacks second- or third-ballot appeal.

The survey differs from other leadership polls in that it queries only Liberal Party members who will be selecting delegates next week for the party's convention, which takes place Nov. 28 to Dec. 2 in Montreal.

Mr. Ignatieff is the first choice of 19 per cent of Liberals surveyed, with Mr. Rae running a tight second at 17 per cent and Mr. Dion just behind with 13 per cent. Gerard Kennedy and Ken Dryden — with 9 per cent each — are tied for fourth. Scott Brison garnered 3 per cent of the vote and Joe Volpe 2 per cent, while Martha Hall Findlay got 1 per cent and Hedy Fry less than 1 per cent.

Twenty-seven per cent said they didn't know or were undecided

---

[ 21 September 2006: Message edited by: Hunky_Monkey ]

quote:

---

Rae defends helping NDP causes

Thu, September 21, 2006

By CHIP MARTIN, FREE PRESS POLITICS REPORTER

Among contributors to New Democrat Irene Mathyssen's successful federal election campaign in London-Fanshawe riding was federal Liberal leadership candidate Bob Rae.

Rae, in London with the eight other candidates vying for the party leadership, defended his $300 donation to Mathyssen, saying he remembers her fondly as a member of his NDP government in Ontario from 1990 to 1995.

"She served with me in government," the one-term premier said last night when asked about his contribution. "I still think highly of her."

He said the donation to Mathyssen and another NDP candidate in Toronto as well as to Liberals "was long before I ever considered running for anything."

The issue of his donation to Mathyssen or $250 to NDP candidate Rochelle Carnegie in Willowdale riding was not raised at the debate at the Best Western Lamplighter Inn attended by 400 party faithful from across Southwestern Ontario. The gathering was the last of the leadership debates before Liberal party delegate selection meetings late this month.

Rae's donations still might become part of the attacks on his decision to switch to the Liberals.

...

Details about Rae's donations began appearing online on political blogs this week and have provided fodder for critics among rival camps questioning his commitment to the party.

"It would seem he's only a member of the party because he's running for the leadership," said a supporter of another leadership contender, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

...

In Ottawa earlier, Rae confirmed he made small donations to three or four NDP candidates who were personal friends, as well as to several Liberals, including interim leader Bill Graham.

"I try to give generously to charity and I try to give generously or as well as I can during political campaigns to encourage good people to get into public life. It's something that I've always done," Rae told CP.

---

This may not go down well with some Liberals. Here's a man that just joined their party and wants to lead it... while giving in the same year to candidates of other parties.

London Free Press

[ 21 September 2006: Message edited by: Hunky_Monkey ]

quote:

---

Originally posted by Hunky_Monkey:
That poll means nothing. It's the delegates that decide who becomes leader.

[ 21 September 2006: Message edited by: Hunky_Monkey ]

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by jrootham:

That's overstating the case. Delegates will present themselves to the riding memberships as supporting a candidate. The first round will be pretty much determined by the riding votes. Mind you, the level of riding organization by the various candidates will have a significant effect, which will militate against the predictive power of the poll.

---

Again, who did they poll? I don't even think it was the Liberal Party membership. Again, it's the ones that show up... the party activists.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Hunky_Monkey:

Again, who did they poll? I don't even think it was the Liberal Party membership. Again, it's the ones that show up... the party activists.

---

quote:

---

The survey differs from other leadership polls in that it queries only Liberal Party members who will be selecting delegates next week for the party's convention, which takes place Nov. 28 to Dec. 2 in Montreal.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Tim:
It partly depends what kind of geographic distribution the poll included. The thing you need to remember with the 1995 NDP leadership is that memberships in the SK section were much higher than any other section (I don't think Ontario caught up until the most recent leadership race).

---

Agreed. But it was still OMOV... and the party's membership picked someone that the delegates didn't. I have issues with things like that

[ 22 September 2006: Message edited by: Hunky_Monkey ]

quote:

---

Originally posted by jrootham:
It wasn't OMOV. It was a delegated convention. The party went to OMOV after that (same convention that they turned down NPI).

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by jrootham:
Delegates will present themselves to the riding memberships as supporting a candidate. The first round will be pretty much determined by the riding votes.

---

quote:

---

If at the conclusion of the process described in Rule 12.1, any vacancies remain unfilled and the number of delegates elected for a Leadership Contestant (other than with respect to votes cast for the “undeclared” option) is less than the number of delegates allocated to that Leadership Contestant (referred to as the “Under-represented Leadership Contestant”), then the Under-represented Leadership Contestant may appoint as a delegate for up to two of each such vacancies any person who is a member in good standing of the same body for which the delegates are being elected and satisfies all the following criteria:
(a) is a youth, if the delegate vacancy was for a youth;
(b) is a senior, if the delegate vacancy was for a senior;
(c) is a woman, if the delegate vacancy was for a woman;
(d) is a man, if the delegate vacancy was for a man.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Ken Burch:
Also, what happened in 1995 was an anomalous situation unlikely to repeat in the Liberal contest, in which the candidate who was in the lead on the first ballot, representing the left wing of the party, threw his support to the third-place candidate, who represented more or less the moderate wing, just to stop the candidate of the right wing of the party from winning on the second ballot(a scenario which seemed likely at the time).

---

I have read the Liberal rules you linked to, and I can't find anywhere where it actually states how the voting for delegates in conducted. Do members vote for up to 14 candidates, or do they have a limit of seven male and seven female? Could someone vote for five youth delegates if they chose?

quote:

---

Originally posted by Krago:
Do members vote for up to 14 candidates, or do they have a limit of seven male and seven female? Could someone vote for five youth delegates if they chose?

---

In these Rules, start with section 10 on page 17. Like many PR systems you have two votes: one for party leader, one for local delegate.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Hunky_Monkey:
people who show up at nomination meetings and/or become delegates are quite a different breed than the general membership.

---

Next Saturday more than 100,000 Liberals will vote for 4,312 delegates (14 from each of 308 ridings) pledged to one of the nine contestants for the Liberal leadership. Delegate slates will be chosen by proportional representation. If that poll reflects the members who turn out, a typical riding would elect 4 Ignatieff delegates, 3 for Rae, 2 each for Dion, Kennedy and Dryden, and 1 for Brison.

quote:

---

Bob Rae has emerged as the leading candidate in the Liberal leadership race, according to a poll of party members in Ontario and Quebec released today by the Toronto Star and La Presse.

According to the poll, conducted by EKOS Research, MP Michael Ignatieff (Etobicoke-Lakeshore) is in a dead heat with Rae among rank-and-file Liberals as first choice for leader in the two provinces, expected to have more than half the delegates to the leadership convention in Montreal at the end of November.

But Rae, former NDP premier of Ontario, appears poised to gain strength on subsequent ballots.

. . . .

Graves said Dion (Saint-Laurent-Cartierville) did "extraordinarily well in Quebec," seeming to have overcome his unpopularity as champion for the federal government, both as an academic and federal cabinet minister.

As well, he scored highest in having the best chance of winning the next election among Liberals paying the closest attention to the race for leader.

"Mr. Dion is not out of the race by any means," said Graves. He added he did well among Liberals who say the environment is their top concern.

"Kennedy has surprising strength in Ontario, which could help him create a surprise," said Graves.

"He is substantially weaker in Quebec, however, and that is a real problem."

. . . .

The poll shows Ignatieff and Rae tied at 25 per cent as top choice for leader of those surveyed, with Dion garnering 17 per cent and Kennedy, 16 per cent.

Second choices show Rae and Dion tied at 27 per cent, with Ignatieff at 19 per cent.

---

Ignatieff 3
Rae 3
Kennedy 3
Dion 2
Dryden 2
Findlay 1
Total 14

A typical Quebec riding will choose:

Dion 4
Rae 4
Ignatieff 4
Dryden 1
Kennedy 1
Total 14

(This results from plugging the poll results into the Liberals' DEM software.)

If all ridings were typical (which of course they won't be) the Ontario and Quebec combined totals would be:

Ignatieff 618
Rae 618
Dion 512
Kennedy 393
Dryden 287
Findlay 106
Total 2,534

[ 25 September 2006: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]

quote:

---

Originally posted by Krago:
The CBC is reporting that Hedy Fry has dropped out of the Liberal leadership race and is endorsing Bob Rae.

---

Ahem! I believe we have a winner in our informal pool...

quote:

---

Originally posted by Scott Piatkowski:
So, should we start a pool on who will drop out next (not who should drop out next, since Volpe would win that one hands down)?

I'm thinking that it'll be Bennett or Fry, due to a lack of support and dollars. Hall Finlay was a longshot to begin with, so she won't be feeling as much of a sense of disappointment.

Volpe, Dryden and Brison probably realize that they're not going to win, but see some advantage to staying in the race.

Kennedy, Dion, Rae and Ignatieff are generally conceded to be the top four (probably in reverse order), so they'll definitely be staying in.

---

[ 25 September 2006: Message edited by: Scott Piatkowski ]

The Toronto Star is reporting that:

quote:

---

OTTAWA - A complaint has been filed with the Liberal party about 60 members allegedly signed up improperly by frontrunner Michael Ignatieff's camp in two Toronto-area ridings, including one man in Ignatieff's constituency said to have died two years ago.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Krago:
Will Joe Volpe finish behind Martha Hall Findlay?

---

[ 25 September 2006: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]

Ontario:
Ignatieff 4
Rae 4
Kennedy 2
Dryden 2
Dion 1
Volpe 1

Quebec:
Rae 5
Dion 4
Ignatieff 3
Dryden 1
Brison 1

Prairies
Ignatieff 4
Dion 4
Rae 2
Kennedy 2
Dryden 1
Brison 1

BC:
Dion 4
Ignatieff 3
Rae 2
Dryden 2
Kennedy 1
Volpe 1
(Hedy, withdrawn) 1

Atlantic (not stated, estimates)
Ignatieff 3
Rae 3
Kennedy 2
Dion 2
Dryden 2
Brison 2

If all ridings are typical, which of course they won't be:

Total
Rae 1,079
Ignatieff 1,077
Dion 838
Dryden 479
Kennedy 424
Brison 195
Volpe 142

quote:

---

Originally posted by Wilf Day:

If all ridings are typical, which of course they won't be:

Total
Rae 1,079
Ignatieff 1,077
Dion 838
Dryden 479
Kennedy 424
Brison 195
Volpe 142

Which I don't believe. I think Findlay will beat Volpe.

---

If going into the final ballot it's close between Ignatieff and Rae, Ras should easily win. Rae will get a lot more second votes then Ignatieff, so Ignatieff will need to have an early lead in order to win.

quote:

---

Call me Bob: "If it really is a considered view, I can only say I am used to being underestimated by these folks, both Joe Clark and Frank Miller did the same thing."

---

Not to mention David Peterson, eh? Of course, that's the point. He doesn't want to remind Liberals that he was once the author of one of their most humiliating defeats, so he's totally excised that part of his narrative to focus on his earlier role in bringing down two Tory minorities. Does he really think that people won't remember?

[ 28 September 2006: Message edited by: Scott Piatkowski ]

quote:

---

Originally posted by Wilf Day:
Can members vote for 14 delegates? Since this is a PR election, I took it for granted you could vote for only one, but the Rules are not specific. Indeed, nothing in the rules says you cannot vote for 20. I will see if this can be clarified.

---

Wilf - you can vote for up to 14 delegates (but not more), and they can be any demographic category. After the number of delegates per riding are determined, you simply go down the list of most delegate votes to least and if there is still both a slot for the candidate and a demographic slot available, the person is not elected. If either is not available that person is not elected and you go to the next person on the list.

For a tracking of how many delegates are being run in each riding see (so far my sources are not giving me much info):
http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2006/09/number-of-riding-delegates-standing-per-candidate/

I will use this, the polling, membership and contribution data to make a final delegate projection in the next 24 hours. So stay tuned for that.

quote:

---

Originally posted by election model 2004:
you can vote for up to 14 delegates (but not more), and they can be any demographic category.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by election model 2004:
After the number of delegates per riding are determined, you simply go down the list of most delegate votes to least and if there is still both a slot for the candidate and a demographic slot available, the person is not elected. If either is not available that person is not elected and you go to the next person on the list.

---

In Ontario Martha Hall Findlay is running fifth, ahead of Dryden, Brison and Volpe. Rae is in fourth place in Ontario behind Dion, while Kennedy is showing very well.

In fact, nationally Dion is second, while Kennedy is only just behind Rae.

In Quebec Dion is just ahead of Ignatieff 47 to 38, and Rae with 30 is close behind. But only Hochelaga, Jeanne-Leber, La Pointe-de-l'Ile, LaSalle-Emard, Laurier-Sainte-Marie, Longueil - Pierre Boucher, Louis-Hebert, Louis-St-Laurent, Megantic-L'Erable, Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie, Saint-Jean, Saint-Lambert, Saint-Leonard-Saint-Michel, and Trois-Rivieres voted Friday, and only 10 of those 14 have reported yet.

Early results from Nova Scotia have Brison with over half the delegates. Friday's meetings were two Halifax ridings plus Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley, and a couple of university clubs. Can he keep this up?

In Alberta, Edmonton Strathcona, Medicine Hat, Crowfoot and Mount Royal College voted Friday, but with only 38 delegates reported, Kennedy has almost half: 18.

Fascinating.

[ 29 September 2006: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]

In fact, nationally Dion is second, while Kennedy is only just behind Rae. Rae is strong only in BC and Newfoundland, and is a close third in Quebec.

In BC Ignatieff is running fourth, just behind Dion, with Kennedy tieing Rae for first place. That's with only six of the 36 ridings voting yet (four in the Greater Vancouver area, one Chiliwack, Kamloops, and the SFU club.

In Quebec Dion is just ahead of Ignatieff 69 to 60, and Rae with 44 is close behind. But only Hochelaga, Jeanne-Leber, La Pointe-de-l'Ile, LaSalle-Emard, Laurier-Sainte-Marie, Longueil - Pierre Boucher, Louis-Hebert, Louis-St-Laurent, Megantic-L'Erable, Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie, Saint-Jean, Saint-Lambert, Saint-Leonard-Saint-Michel, and Trois-Rivieres voted Friday.

Early results from Nova Scotia have Brison with over half the delegates, while Rae bagged only two delegates out of 71. Friday's meetings were two Halifax ridings plus Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley, and a couple of university clubs. Can Brison keep this up?

With Newfoundland results almost complete, Dryden is in third place there, as he is in New Brunswick too.

In Alberta, Edmonton Strathcona, Medicine Hat, Crowfoot and Mount Royal College voted Friday, but with only 42 delegates reported, Kennedy has almost half: 20. Again Rae bags only two.

Fascinating.

Note on the Liberal site:

quote:

---

Significant variance may occur as delegate spots "earned" by candidates are filled.

---

However, the Globe has it backwards. They say:

quote:

---

But the unofficial results could change: they represent only the number of delegates that each candidate earned from the members direct vote for leadership candidates. The complex rules mean that some campaigns will lose delegate spots because they did not field candidates for delegate spots in the right places.

---

[ 30 September 2006: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]

With 25% of the delegates reporting

excerpt:

The results of the super weekend are not an entirely accurate measure of first ballot support at convention.

Elected delegates will make up about only 80 per cent of the Liberals entitled to vote for the new leader on Dec. 2. Another 1,000 MPs, senators, past candidates, former cabinet ministers, riding presidents and assorted other party brass are automatically entitled to attend and may vote however they wish.

Moreover, some camps may not be able to send all the delegates to which they’re entitled, if they didn’t run enough supporters to be delegates this weekend.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Kevin_Laddle:
these results have got to have the Ignatieff camp worried.

---

They are quite different from the earlier Alberta ones: Ignatieff 12, Kennedy 11, Volpe 7, Rae 6, Dion 5, Dryden 1, Hall Findlay 1.

Calgary, as we know, is different. Ignatieff and Volpe???

(And Martha picks up her first non-Ontario delegate.)

[ 30 September 2006: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]

quote:

---

Originally posted by Policywonk:
I've thought Dion was the dark horse for some time, and agree that if present trends continue, he will likely finish a strong second on the first ballot because of more ex-officio delegate support.

---

quote:

---

Ignatieff agrees with Harper on international affairs, so there wouldn't be any debate. If they do disagree, it's on finer points, specifics, and such; and that debate would be too academic for the canadian pubblic.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by 500_Apples:
Ignatieff agrees with Harper on international affairs, so there wouldn't be any debate. If they do disagree, it's on finer points, specifics, and such; and that debate would be too academic for the canadian pubblic.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by 500_Apples:
Ignatieff agrees with Harper on international affairs.

---

quote:

---

I do not think they are as close as you suggest, though looking through a very simplistic lens, they may come across as such.

---

There may be something to this.

Only 12 ridings met last night: 12 x 14 = 168.
18 youth (student) clubs met: 18 x 4 = 72
9 women's clubs also met: 9 x 1 = 9
Total 249, from which 233 delegates were elected (16 more spots were earned but will be filled by appointment)

Martha must have won a delegate in all 12 ridings.

quote:

---

Originally posted by sgm:

There may be something to this.

Certainly, Ignatieff has gone farther in print than Harper has done in laying out the intellectual justifications for aggressive war masquerading as self-defence.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by island empire:
actually, ignatieff is quite popular in montreal with activists, and even in the regions.

---

[ 30 September 2006: Message edited by: Benjamin ]

quote:

---

Originally posted by EriKtheHalfaRed:
"Hmmm. Ignatieff indead makes intellectual justifications for aggressive war (When is it that war is not aggressive?), but had you read his works in any depth, specifically "Empire Lite", you would see that his justification is not based on self-defence (that would indeed be a very liberal justification). It takes more than reading the first paragraph of a Globe and Mail article to understand Ignatieff's arguments."

So what is his "justification" then, beyond maintaining that torture and invasive warfare are acceptable if the other side is just too-too scarey to let live and "our" side still happens to retain a few liberal sentiments?

---

Ignatieff, M. (2003). State failure and nation-building. In J.L Holzgrefe, & R.O. Keohane (Eds.), Humanitarian intervention: Ethical, legal, and political dimensions (pp. 299-321). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Ignatieff, M. (2003). Empire lite: Nation-building in Bosnia, Kosovo and Afghanistan. Toronto: Penguin.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Boom Boom:
Can anyone remember why the Libs choose to have such a lengthly leadership race? Why couldn't it end this wekend, instead of Dec. 2?

---

But that eliminates the drama, horse-trading, and gavel-to-gavel TV coverage of a live multi-round-vote convention.

quote:

---

Originally posted by EriKtheHalfaRed:
Sorry, I'm not interested in ordering any boring treatises from a man I dislike, I'd just like to hear a cogent argument made for his position where others can see it and judge for themselves. If you can't make it here then I'll just have to assume its little more than it ever looks.

---

The protection of human rights may seem like a "boring treatise" to you, but the R2P document is probably one of the most important current FP documents to read. How it is interpreted, used, and possibly abused, will impact greatly on whether it promotes justice, or is another tool to justify injustices.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Wilf Day:

I think their contingency plan, in the event of a snap fall election, was to do the whole thing this weekend by a single preferential ballot.

But that eliminates the drama, horse-trading, and gavel-to-gavel TV coverage of a live multi-round-vote convention.

It will take them to Dec. 2 to get all the delegates booked and organized to travel to the convention, especially since they have to appoint some delegates to fill vacant slots, and then check who is actually planning to go and appoint alternates for those who didn't expect to win and can't really go, and so on.

---

But in this afternoon's two votes in rural Saskatchewan -- Churchill River and Battlefords-Lloydmister -- Ignatieff's forces were organized: he got 18 of the 28 delegates, 7 for Kennedy, one each for Dion, Dryden and Brison, zero for Rae. That's how Ignatieff is doing so well.

[ 30 September 2006: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]

http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2006/09/live-blogging-liberal-leadership-delegate-results/

quote:

---

Hmmm. Ignatieff indeed makes intellectual justifications for aggressive war (When is it that war is not aggressive?), but had you read his works in any depth, specifically "Empire Lite", you would see that his justification is not based on self-defence (that would indeed be a very liberal justification). It takes more than reading the first paragraph of a Globe and Mail article to understand Ignatieff's arguments.

---

First, an acknowledgement: my phrase 'aggressive war' may have been a bit misleading; perhaps I ought to have used 'wars of aggression' or simply 'aggression' to refer to the illegal use of military force Michael Ignatieff vocally supported in the particular case of Iraq, and to the 'pre-emptive wars' for which he offers intellectual justification in pages 162-167 of The Lesser Evil (perhaps you know the work?), with arguments that do not substantially differ from those offered in the Bush administration's strategy for achieving national security.

Unfortunately for your argument, snide remarks about my not having read Ignatieff 'in any depth,' or beyond 'the first paragraphs of a Globe and Mail article,' will rapidly prove as weak as the usual defences typically brought to bear when his positions are attacked: that he's been quoted out of context, or that his argumentative subtlety has got the better of his critics.

Sorry, but it isn't true.

Anyone who can read and understand a column by Thomas Friedman or Marcus Gee can easily penetrate the involved depths of Ignatieff's reasoning: he's not at all so sophisticated and difficult that he's easily misread.

On the contrary, he is frequently vague, self-contradictory, incoherent, and glaringly blind to context.

Not that these facts stop the usual suspects in media and intellectual circles from declaring him 'scary smart' (Don MacPherson) or 'the voice of our conscience' (Janice Stein).

Thanks all the same for your bibliographical suggestions, Benjamin, but I've read 'Empire Lite,' the other works you mention, and easily a score of other essays, speeches, and books besides.

So you'll forgive me, I hope, for rejecting your suggestion that I haven't read or properly understood Ignatieff: I have, and I think he'd be bad for Canada, for specfic reasons that include:

--his views on the use of military force

--his views on 'coercive interrogation'

--his views on civil liberties

--the near-complete vacancy of his record on domestic policy

--his support for missile defence

(the list is not exhaustive)

Speaking of lists, perhaps I could suggest adding a volume to your own list of books to read: Ignatieff's World: A Liberal Leader for the 21st Century? by Denis Smith (author and professor).

Tracing Ignatieff's intellectual and political trajectory, Smith concludes his book thus:

quote:

---

Meanwhile, for Harper, Ignatieff is the perfect opponent. His inexperience in Canadian politics will be exposed on the parliamentary battlefield. His thin skin will be irritated by a mischievous press gallery. And in foreign policy (his special claim to fame), he will find it hard to oppose Harper's e,brace of American militarism. If Ignatieff lasts long enough to inherit power, he will prove himself Ignatieff's perfect successor. Ignatieff's imperial vision and his ambivalence on Canadian sovereignty will perpetuate the legacy of Harper as Washington's viceroy in Ottawa.

For the sake of the party, for the sake of the country, the Liberal convention should not choose Michael Ignatieff as leader in 2006

---

Finally--and here I'm riffing off one of Smith's headings in the book's final chapter ('The Departure of Prince Hal,' where Smith recounts Ignatieff's quarrel with colleague Conor Gearty over his writings on torture, and his departure from The Index on Censorship), I'd say that Ignatieff reminds me less of Shakespeare's young Prince Hal than he does of the clerics who justify Henry V's invasion of France in the play of the same name.

Faced with the obstacle of medieval international law (The Salique Law), Shakespeare's Henry V wants to know how to get around it so he can launch his desired invasion.

Sure enough, our Will has the 15th century's version of today's public intellectuals (Bishops of Canterbury and Ely) appear before the throne and tell the king he has every right to invade.

Ignatieff is today's Canterbury.

quote:

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Originally posted by Benjamin:

May I suggest the following, the latter of which is readily available online:

---

You followed this invitation with a list of three. Which would be the "latter" of the three? In my day, latters had only two rungs.

ETA: Oh by the way, great post as usual, sgm.

[ 30 September 2006: Message edited by: unionist ]

quote:

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Originally posted by unionist:

You followed this invitation with a list of three. Which would be the "latter" of the three? In my day, latters had only two rungs.

ETA: Oh by the way, great post as usual, sgm.

[ 30 September 2006: Message edited by: unionist ]

---

quote:

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Which makes the Quebec results counter-intuitive. With 35% of meetings reporting, Ignatieff is now well in the lead in Quebec, with 35.4% of the delegates, against 27.4% for Dion and 26.2% for Rae. Granted Rae and Dion may be each other's delegates' second choices in most cases, but still, how did Ignatieff do so well among Quebec Liberals?

---

Iggy's support in Quebec is very broad, spanning the spectrum from hard-core Chretien loyalists like Denis Coderre to Martinites like Liza Frulla, as well as the president of the federal Liberals in Quebec and many other key MPs and organizers. He is the only leading candidate to support constitutional recognition of Quebec as a nation and that issue carries a lot of weight among federal Liberals who have to run against the BQ in the next election.

I was more surprised by Rae's amazingly poor showing in Ontario so far - 14.6% of the delegates as I type this at 9pm BC time on Saturday, way behind Kennedy at 26% and Iggy at over 30%. If those kinds of numbers hold, I predict it will be the kiss of death for Rae - he can't claim to be able to beat Harper if he can't even make any gains in his home province among Liberals.

quote:

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Originally posted by sgm:
defences typically brought to bear when his positions are attacked: that he's been quoted out of context, or that his argumentative subtlety has got the better of his critics.

---

What stands out? How bad Rae did in Ontario... and how Ignatieff (at this point) is 9 points and 62 delegates ahead of Dion in Quebec.

I also caution against assuming Kennedy will go to Rae or Dion or whoever. Or Rae going to Dion. Liberals don't give a shit about what candidate is from what wing of the party. Sure... some Liberals may be principled... but the party isn't. It's about winning. They'll go with what candidate they think has the best shot against Harper. And looking at Ignatieff's results in Ontario and Quebec, seems to be the strongest candidate.

For example... a lot of people think Kennedy will go to Rae. Well, looking at the results and Kennedy wanting a federal Ontario seat, think that's going to happen?

[ 30 September 2006: Message edited by: Hunky_Monkey ]

And in Nova Scotia he has 3 of the 119 delegates, running in sixth position.

In Saskatchewan he's fourth, with 12 of 98.

In Ontario he has less than 16% of the delegates. In New Brunswick, 14%.

However, he carried 1/3 of the delegates from Newfoundland, and 16 of the 34 chosen in PEI's first three meetings. Maybe they thought Rae Days were paid holidays?

Meanwhile, Ignatieff is in fourth place in BC, and stands at only 31% across Canada, hardly a dominating position.

quote:

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When the race gets down to the big four, there are 402 delegates so far who will be looking for a choice. Kennedy has 394, Dion 419, Rae 471. Lots of room for manoevre.[/QB]

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kennedy's lead in alberta seems to have slipped considerably, although he's creeping up to iggy's level of support in ontario.

Not only does sgm know Ignatieff's writing better than Benjamin does; it almost seems that sgm knows Ignatieff's writing better than Ignatieff does.

[ 30 September 2006: Message edited by: Albireo ]

quote:

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Originally posted by spiffy:
bc could go any of four ways at the moment!

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quote:

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Originally posted by EriKtheHalfaRed:
... Ignatieff OTOH will the best political news the federal NDP ever got...

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from an pro-NDP perspective, i second this sentiment, but think any gains we make will be slow going, as we will likely be in the same position as now, in the reverse, but without the social-conservative danger of Harper if we can't hold him in check, which is the good news part.

I would like to see Ignatieff win. Simply put, he is the only candidate that can replace Harper as the PM, likely in another minority situation, as the NDP is in no way positioned to be the next federal govt. by any stretch.

He has national and international recognition as a social liberal, but in the fiscal conservative vien in the Cretien and Martin tradition, which would essentially be a return to "normal" Canadian politics. He could easily distance himself from Harper's cozying up to the US,Australia+Britain, foreign policy directions with some intense 'intellectual" ramblings on the traditional Canadian role as "honest brokers" and peacekeepers, and would be seen as having the mental capacity to back such a position, unlike Harper, and with his hawkish war positions nervously reassuring our current "allies" that we won't "cut and run" on our current obligations. He would be under pressure though to give some audience to the idea of public debate about our intentions, unlike Harper, who has catagorically dismissed anything of that sort and become a serious war promoter. I've been thinking of a tenuous comparison to a Vaclav Havel in international appeal to contrast the emerging Harper-hawk impression (apologies to Havel if he feels insulted. i'm going from the impression-created angle).

I think that in a minority situation, the Liberals under Ignatieff, while likely remaining as hawkish on foreign policy and just as fiscally conservative as the Cons, would be under intese pressure to restore the cuts on the social policy front that the Cons are agressively pursuing, which are essentially Liberal programming, and Ignatieff could be held in check better than Harper by the NDP and Bloc purely from the need to be 'seen' as progressive and the opposite of Harper domesically in order to be still able to claim to be Liberal.

Ignatieff as PM would essentiall be centre-right pandering to the centre, with the left/progressive elements actiing as a check on the right wing elements, which is a damn sight better than Harper, who is governing fromt the right, pandering to the centre, with the far-right having his ear on social policy, using foreign policy as a major smokescreen to distract the media/public from his ongoing dismantlement agenda of anything progressive domestically.

I just don't think Dion has the same domestic and international recognition to pull off a Harper defeat. Rae, while an intelligent man, is still in the eyes of Ontario, a defeated and discredited NDP premier, and it appears the numbers are reflecting this in his case.

some early morning thoughts from an interested observer, convoluted as they may be. wow. i'm up way too early.

[ 01 October 2006: Message edited by: farnival ]

quote:

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Originally posted by farnival:

I would like to see Ignatieff win. [...]

wow. i'm up way too early.

---

- Dryden's alleged strength in Manitoba has not materialized yet - Rae is dominating so far.

- Rae is doing very well in British Columbia with about half the meetings reporting in.

- The fabled organizational strength of David Orchard does not seem to be doing much for Dion in Saskatchewan - Ignatieff has a pretty commanding lead so far.

quote:

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Originally posted by unionist:

Well, I agree with part of your statement.

---

haha. well, just to clarify, i don't like Ignatief at all. I do think he would be the one to hope for to marginalise Harper and make gains for the left. the others can't pull off getting rid of harper.

but duely noted unionist.

Ontario:
Candidate, Friday, Saturday
Ignatieff 76, 181
Kennedy 52, 178
Rae 30, 102
Dion 31, 66
Dryden 15, 34
Volpe 6, 34
Hall Findlay 16, 5
Brison 5, 7
Undeclared 3, 14
Total 234, 621

In the comparison Ignatieff and Dion did worse Saturday. Kennedy and Rae did a good deal better.

In Quebec:
Candidate, Friday, Saturday
Ignatieff 60, 206
Rae 44, 141
Dion 69, 133
Volpe 16, 6
Undeclared 7, 7
Dryden 4, 7
Kennedy 3, 4
Brison 7, 0
Hall Findlay 0, 1
Total 210, 505

In the comparison Ignatieff and Rae did better Saturday. Dion did worse.

Big shift in BC:
Candidate, Friday, Saturday
Rae 33, 30
Ignatieff 18, 30
Dion 19, 25
Kennedy 33, 19
Volpe 6, 24
Dryden 4, 3
Undeclared 4, 1
Brison 0, 0
Hall Findlay 0, 0
Total 117, 132

Ignatieff up, Dion up slightly, Rae down a bit, Kennedy seriously down.

Big shift in Nova Scotia too:
Candidate, Friday, Saturday
Brison 42, 12
Ignatieff 14, 21
Dion 7, 5
Dryden 4, 4
Kennedy 2, 5
Rae 2, 1
Volpe 0, 0
Hall Findlay 0, 0
Undeclared 0, 0
Total 71, 48

Obviously Ignatieff did a lot better, Brison a lot worse.

quote:

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Originally posted by farnival:
I would like to see Ignatieff win. Simply put, he is the only candidate that can replace Harper as the PM, likely in another minority situation.

---

Dion, why not?

Rae knows how it's done. And also how to outsmart your ally.

Kennedy was in Toronto running the food bank from 1986 (during the Accord government) until 1996 when he took over Rae's seat in the by-election. So he knows the theory.

Anyone under 5% on the first ballot is dropped so there's no real point for Dryden, Volpe, Brison or Finlay to stay in.

quote:

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Originally posted by Wilf Day:
]...There's an interesting topic. Who would be most willing to work in an accord, alliance, or coalition (and it should be the NDP's choice as to which it wants) with the NDP?

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i'm not suggesting that the others wouldn't be good leaders. On the contrary, they all have thier good points and are experienced enough to be the next Liberal leader (perhaps with Kennedy being the exception in terms of years of service).

i am coming from the viewpoint of who can best get rid of Harper. Ignatief is the only one out of the top four to the right enough to do it, with the caveat that he would not want to be seen in that light and would have to work very hard to counter the criticisms that he is right wing due to his published views on Bush's wars, and torture, by pumping up his "progressive" side that he trumpets as his true character. I don't necessarily think he would be the best Liberal leader or the best PM, but he would be a hell of a lot better than Harper, who will never work with the NDP, and looks like he is quickly losing Bloc support.

In an election, Harper would make mincemeat of the others, if only through contempt alone. Ignatief is the only one who could go toe-to-toe (right toes!) from a right of centre standpoint. The difference is Ignatieff could then be held in check. Harper is hell bent on destroying anything he ideologically distains, and i would rather use the most expedient way of banishing him to the dustbin of one term PMs before he irreperably ruins our country and it's reputation.

Bob Rae is at only 15% in Ontario! Why are so few Liberals in Ontario voting for Bob Rae?

Xtra is a guide for the gay and lesbian community and is published bi-weekly with a circulation of 42000.

quote:

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Originally posted by Benjamin:

Spoken like a true Fox News caster. If you can't make your point in 15 seconds, then you cannot make your point right? Blah blah blah...

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One of things I've learned over the years is that the more someone puts on airs of intellectual superiority the less they actually understand. FYI, I never said to put it into a 15 second blurb, you can take as much time and space here as uyou Need to define exactly How Ignatieff's arguments defending torture, invasive warfare, and weakened due process are in fact justified and needed now. Or what other rationales they could have beyond self defence. Spreading democracy perhaps? Or maybe you can still try to rationlize why certain acts of torture Aren't in fact torture, like Iggy tries to. My guess is you can't do it and you know it. Iggy probably does too, but like most professional apologists he'll never be interrogated himself to find out just how well his own rhetoric actually stands up under physical pressure -isn't that one of the euphemisms they now use--pressure? Asshole.

[ 01 October 2006: Message edited by: EriKtheHalfaRed ]

Candidate, true result, reported result
Kennedy 7, 7
Rae 2, 0
Volpe 2, 2
Dryden 1, 1
Ignatieff 1, 0
Dion 1, 0

With that caveat, highlights to date:

With 81% of meetings reporting:

Ignatieff 1164
Rae 769
Dion 654
Kennedy 649
Also-rans (delegates up for grabs) 655

Brison is ahead in Nova Scotia, with about 40% of the delegates. (Did anyone expect him to do so well there?) Kennedy 8 delegates, Rae 4 delegates, both behind Dryden's 11. (Did anyone expect them to do so badly there?)

With 76% of Quebec meetings reporting, Kennedy has 10 Quebec delegates against Volpe's 25 and Dion's 282.

With 72% of Saskatchewan reporting, Dion is in second place after Ignatieff.

With 82% of Alberta reporting, Rae is in fourth place, well behind Dion.

quote:

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Originally posted by George Pringle:
Anyone under 5% on the first ballot is dropped so there's no real point for Dryden, Volpe, Brison or Finlay to stay in.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Gollygee:
Why subtract them out?

---

quote:

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Originally posted by babblerwannabe:
It's interesting that Michael Ignatieff is the only contender for the Liberal leadership race that refused to respond to the questionnaire from Xtra.

Xtra is a guide for the gay and lesbian community and is published bi-weekly with a circulation of 42000.

You can look at their interviews here.

---

Ignatieff did not refuse to respond a questionnaire from Xtra.

Read what they actually say:

quote:

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Our conversation with Ignatieff was cut short and despite repeated attempts, he did not return our calls or e-mails before press time.

Xtra West: How would the Liberals under your leadership respond to an attempt by the Conservative government to reopen the issue of gay marriage?

Michael Ignatieff: I think reopening gay marriage is a serious mistake. I think the issue is settled. I'm confident my party will vote to maintain human rights regardless of sexual orientation including the right to civil marriage.

---

For example, in Ontario it would seem that the typical riding elected the following:

Ignatieff 4
Kennedy 4
Rae 2
Dion 1
Dryden 1
Volpe 1
other 1

quote:

---

With 72% of Saskatchewan reporting, Dion is in second place after Ignatieff.

---

quote:

---

Our conversation with Ignatieff was cut short and despite repeated attempts, he did not return our calls or e-mails before press time.

---

I wonder why.
And he might be pro-gay right, but is he pro transgender rights? What is his view on prostitution? The questionnaire asked other questions, it seems weird that all the other candidates responded to all the questions on the questionnaire except him. Of course, it doesn’t matter what he say really. I personally would never vote for anyone that supports the war on Iraq. I would also never actually get to vote for the Liberal leader, only the right wing Liberal candidate that represent my Scarborough riding so it wouldn't really matter who the liberal leader is but it still would be nice to read his views on queer related subjects. I guess he just didn't think those questions are that important.

His riding is also in Toronto, this is a Toronto based paper and he don't have time to respond whereas every other candidates do ? whatever.

[ 01 October 2006: Message edited by: babblerwannabe ]

[ 01 October 2006: Message edited by: babblerwannabe ]

and I don't know what the 33rd meeting was, but the 32 above total 168.

quote:

---

The exercise also confirmed Gerard Kennedy's dismal absence from the Quebec radar. Late yesterday, the former Ontario education minister was headed for his worst provincial score in Quebec, results so poor that they indicate he would need years — not months — to make an impression on the province.

As a result, Kennedy is more likely to play kingmaker at the convention than to get his hands on the crown.

Neither Bob Rae nor Stéphane Dion or, if it came to that, Ignatieff, is likely to rally to a candidate who inspires such profound indifference in Quebec. But Kennedy's support for one of the other three could well determine the winner.

Over the course of the campaign, Rae and Dion have shared much of the same space on defining issues such as the Constitution or Canada's foreign policy. It would come as little surprise if one ended up moving over to the other in Montreal.

As for Rae, Ontarians in general may be more inclined to forget the lingering memories of his unpopular NDP government than Liberals from Ontario are to forgive him for wresting power from them in 1990. Poring over the preliminary weekend results, that sense could translate into an anybody-but-Rae Ontario movement on the floor of the convention.

About a thousand ex-officio delegates will also be thrown into the mix.

Made up of riding presidents, senators and past and present candidates, this establishment group may find Kennedy, Rae and Dion's proven weaknesses in key election markets at least as daunting as the prospect of a leap into the unknown with Ignatieff.

---

New Brunswick 158
Ignatieff 54
Rae 23
Dion 23
Kennedy 15
Brison 15
Dryden 15
Hall-Findley 1
Undeclared 12

Nova Scotia 183
Brison 73
Ignatieff 68
Dion 17
Dryden 11
Kennedy 8
Rae 4
Undeclared 2

Newfoundland: 108
Rae 36
Ignatieff 33
Dryden 16
Kennedy 11
Dion 6
Volpe 5
Undeclared 1

P.E.I 65
Rae 28
Kennedy 14
Ignatieff 13
Dryden 5
Dion 4
Brison 1

Total: 514
1.Ignatieff 168, 32.7%
2.Rae 91, 17.7%
3.Brison 89, 17.3%
4.Dion 50, 9.7%
5.Kennedy 48, 9.3%
6.Dryden 47, 9.1%
7.Volpe 5
8.Hall-Findley 1
Undeclared 15

Interesting to see Ignatieff as the main competition to Brison in Nova Scotia. I would have thought they would have been going after the same pool. Also, Frank McKenna's endorsement of Brison appears to have had no effect anywhere else in the Atlantic, yet alone the rest of Canada.

I'm not going to try to estimate the ex-officio delegates votes, or the votes of the remaining meetings (mostly mail ballots), or the vacant delegate spots earned this weekend to be appointed by under-represented leadership contestants.

So let's pretend these are the final numbers:

Ignatieff 1249
Rae 830
Kennedy 706
Dion 696
others 702

Second ballot:
Ignatieff 1424
Rae 955
Kennedy 808
Dion 896

Third ballot:
Ignatieff 1544
Rae 1183
Dion 1356

Fourth ballot:
Ignatieff 1934
Dion 2149

quote:

---

Michael Ignatieff: I think reopening gay marriage is a serious mistake. I think the issue is settled. I'm confident my party will vote to maintain human rights regardless of sexual orientation including the right to civil marriage.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Stargazer:

Civil marriage. Did anyone catch that? He is not saying full marriage, like straights have, he is saying civil marriage. So what does he mean? He favours civil unions but not full marriage? Someone who is a pro-torture (errr...pro Iggy fan), please comment.

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"Canada's NDP will respect equality by … recognizing the equality of loving adult partnerships by extending civil marriage equality to same-sex couples, while respecting each religion's right to determine its own definition of marriage." - NDP Platform

Civil marriage is the only kind of marriage the government can fully regulate. Religious marriages are up to religious institutions.

[ 02 October 2006: Message edited by: Maxx ]