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Author Topic: Socialists take control in Portugal
DrConway
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posted 20 February 2005 04:54 PM      Profile for DrConway     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Socialists Win Portugal Vote, Control Parliament

quote:
LISBON (Reuters) - Portugal's opposition Socialists won clear control of parliament in Sunday elections, ousting the prime minister after only seven months in power, according to exit polls.

The Socialists led by former environment minister Jose Socrates polled 46.9 percent to 50.7 percent of the vote, according to a poll for SIC television.

The results give them the absolute majority needed to implement their platform to boost the lagging economy in western Europe's poorest country.


As an aside, note the interesting name of the party leader.


From: You shall not side with the great against the powerless. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
ian gregson
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posted 20 February 2005 05:13 PM      Profile for ian gregson     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
2002 Results

Social Democrats: 105 seats (40.1%)

Socialists: 96 seats (37.8%)

Popular Party: 14 seats (8.7%)

Communists/Greens: 12 seats (6.9%)

Left Bloc: 3 seats (2.7%)


From: Republic of East Van | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Reality. Bites.
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posted 20 February 2005 05:30 PM      Profile for Reality. Bites.        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by ian gregson:
Popular Party: 14 seats (8.7%)

Perhaps they should consider changing their name.


From: Gone for good | Registered: Aug 2004  |  IP: Logged
NDP Newbie
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posted 20 February 2005 07:51 PM      Profile for NDP Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Cheat notes for people who may be confused about the SoDems:

Popular Party: centre-right to more extreme (not fascist though)

Social Democrats: Centre/Centre-right

Socialists: Centre-Left

Commies/Greens: far-left

Incidentally, I knew this was coming. :-) The incumbent right-wing parties got decimated by Portuguese voters in the recent EU Parliament elections.

[ 20 February 2005: Message edited by: NDP Newbie ]


From: Cornwall, ON | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Fidel
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posted 20 February 2005 09:40 PM      Profile for Fidel     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Ya, the poopular party were ousted in Spain last year, too. It seems that even the luke warm right-rightists in Europe can't maintain popularity among voters.
\
We need to adopt Europe's proportional representation in our own so called elections. Reducing 49% to nil and promoting 50% of the vote to 100 percent isn't real democracy. No wonder we have lower participation rates in the thre most conservative nations.

The right wing is holed up in North America and having to resort to stealing elections, naturally.


From: Viva La Revolución | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 20 February 2005 10:28 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
With 226 seats declared, the Portuguese Socialists have an absolute majority of 120. (Four more seats represent Portuguese abroad.) The outgoing government was crushed, getting only 72 seats.

The large district/ small district phenomenon can be seen here too, as in most PR systems with districts.

Portugal has 230 deputies in 22 districts, an average magnitude of only 10, although four of them are fairly large -- Lisbon 48, Porto 38, Braga 18, and Setubal 17.

The Communist/Green Alliance won only 14 seats, when they deserved 17, because they were short changed in rural districts. They got 5 seats in Lisbon, 3 in Setubal, 2 in Porto, 1 in Braga, and 3 in all the rest of the country (including one remarkable three-seater, Evora, where the Socialists got 2 seats, the Communist/Green alliance 1, and the right came third.) Last time, the Greens won only 2 seats, hence the alliance this time.

Similarly, the small "Left Bloc" got only 8 seats when they deserved 14 (up from 3 seats last time when they got only 2.8% of the vote): 4 in Lisbon, 2 in Setubal, & 2 in Porto.

But this didn't hurt the Socialists at all. They got a clear majority with only 45% of the vote. Not all PR systems are perfect, and sometimes the left wins a bonus. Just as could happen in BC.

Look at Portugal's smallest district, their only two-seater, Portalegre:
Socialists: 38910 (54.80%) 2
Centre-right PSD: 14389 (20.26%) 0
Communist-Green: 8585 (12.09%) 0
Left Bloc: 3264 (4.60%) 0
Conservative (PP): 2997 (4.22%) 0

[ 21 February 2005: Message edited by: Wilfred Day ]


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Wilf Day
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posted 21 February 2005 12:50 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Socrates opposed the invasion of Iraq:

quote:
Socrates also said he is committed to closer foreign policy coordination between European Union nations. He opposed the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, which the outgoing government supported, although he said he values warm relations with the United States.

Socrates also wants to change the abortion laws:

quote:
. . .hold a fresh referendum on the Roman Catholic country's strict laws against abortion.

Voters were also concerned over the continued poor state of public services. A recent flu outbreak overwhelmed hospitals while courts have over one million backlogged cases even as the public wage bill consumes 15 percent of gross domestic product.



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NDP Newbie
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posted 21 February 2005 01:35 AM      Profile for NDP Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I'm surprised that a country whose modern republic was founded on an anti-authoritarian and socialist rock still bans abortion...

I suspect we'll see the Lesage-Zapatero effect in full-force if this government is merely socially liberal with socialist undertones like those are/were...

And we may see something even better should these guys be true believers.


From: Cornwall, ON | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
nister
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posted 21 February 2005 09:25 AM      Profile for nister     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Left of centre wins everywhere...besides the US, and Australia, [two regimes banging the war drums], reactionaries are fading away like old soldiers. When I see "liberalism is dead" articles in New Republic and WSJ, I feel I should frame them a la "Dewey Defeats Truman".
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Fidel
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posted 21 February 2005 10:27 AM      Profile for Fidel     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Resistance is futile. All billionaire capitalists will be assimilated?. ha ha

"Where there is fire, there is smoke. And, in that smoke, from this day forward, my people will crouch and conspire, and plot, and plan, for the inevitable day of man's downfall, the day, when he finally and self destructively turns his weapons against his own kind, the day of the writing in the sky, when your cities lie buried under radioactive rubble, when the sea is a dead sea, and the land is a wasteland, out of which I will lead my people from their captivity, and we shall build our own cities, in which, there will be no place for humans, except to serve our ends, and we shall have found our own armies, our own religion, our own dynasty, and that day, is upon you noooow!" -Caesar(Roddy McDowell, really)
Conquest of the Planet of the Apes


From: Viva La Revolución | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 21 February 2005 11:11 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by NDP Newbie:
I'm surprised that a country whose modern republic was founded on an anti-authoritarian and socialist rock still bans abortion.

Low Turnout:

quote:
A 1998 referendum marked by low voter turnout narrowly defeated a proposal to allow abortion on demand up to 10 weeks into pregnancy.

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Stockholm
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posted 21 February 2005 11:57 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Left of centre wins everywhere...besides the US, and Australia, [two regimes banging the war drums]

I wish that were true but you are forgetting that last week, the rightwing coalition government in Denmark (whihc supported the Iraq war) was reelected with an increased majority.


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NDP Newbie
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posted 21 February 2005 07:15 PM      Profile for NDP Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
They won because most Danes have the strange idea that 8% of the population not being ethnic Dane is too much. :-(

I can understand anti-immigrant zeal in Taiwan and Hong Kong, but why in Denmark?


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Wilf Day
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posted 22 February 2005 02:31 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
the electorate is fed up with economic orthodoxy.

quote:
"The right tried the normal liberal ideas and failed completely," João Cravinho, a former Socialist minister and the party's top candidate for Faro, told the BBC.

"They tried to decrease the deficit, and the deficit increased by two points, to five percent. They tried to instill confidence, and all indicators fell."



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Willowdale Wizard
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posted 27 February 2005 08:58 AM      Profile for Willowdale Wizard   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
if you google "communist green portugal", this thread is 3rd!

i'm not as sure if this is lesage/zapatero territory, as the socialists are saying that they want to only rehire one civil servant for every two that retire/leave the public sector, as well as partnering with the private sector to renew education.


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Wilf Day
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posted 27 February 2005 11:55 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The Socialist Party got a "large party" bonus and won 120 of the 226 seats declared by provisional results (4 seats to come from out-of-country voters), 53% of the seats, with 45% of the votes.

Portugal has a regional pure list system, with a wide variety of district magnitudes, from 48 deputies in Lisbon down to 2 in Portalegre. In the smaller districts, of course the 3 smaller parties are short-changed: the Communist-Green alliance has 6.2% of seats with 7.6% of votes, the further-left Left Bloc has 3.5% of seats with 6.4% of votes, and the right-wing Popular Party has 5.3% of seats with 7.3% of votes. And 6 splinter parties got 2.13% of votes between them with no seats.

While looking at this, I noticed the position of women on the lists.

They have no legislated quotas, so the right-wing parties have few women on the lists, but the Socialist Party obviously has a new quota system: one third women. (Except in the autonomous Azores, where they ran 3 men.) So did they elect 40 women? Well, no, 34. In almost all the 20 districts, women were # 3, # 6, # 9, #12, etc. In five districts 2 Socialists were elected: that's 10 men. And so on, with only two exceptions. In Coimbra, a woman headed the list, and women were also #3 and #5: their Socialists elected 3 women and 3 men. In Aveiro a woman was #2, and they elected 5 men and 3 women.

A useful demonstration of why list size matters to women -- and to proportionality, if there is no Swedish/Norwegian style national compensation system.


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Fidel
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posted 27 February 2005 02:09 PM      Profile for Fidel     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I wouldn't want to sell a used car to Wilf. Thanks Wilf!.
From: Viva La Revolución | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 27 February 2005 03:08 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Fidel:
I wouldn't want to sell a used car to Wilf.

I do, however, recommend well-used electoral systems.


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radiorahim
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posted 27 February 2005 03:45 PM      Profile for radiorahim     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
From Electionworld.org:

Socialist Party 45.1% 120 seats
Social Democratic Party 28.7% 72 seats
Unitarian Democratic Coalition
7.6% 14 seats
(12 Communist Party, 2 Ecologist Party)
Popular Party 7.3% 12 seats
Left Bloc 6.4% 8 seats
Pending 4 seats

That's quite a stunning victory for parties on the left!

In the presidential campaign the Socialist Party candidate won 55.1% of the vote compared to 34.5% for the right-wing Social Democratic Party candidate. The Communist candidate won 5.1%, the Left Bloc candidate 3% and the Communist Party of Portugese Workers candidate 1.6%.


From: a Micro$oft-free computer | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
NDP Newbie
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posted 27 February 2005 04:47 PM      Profile for NDP Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The post-fallangist (aka centre-right with strong ties to elements that supported a former fallangist regime such as far-right forces within Roman Catholicism...Y'all know who they are, so I won't waste my breath.) People Party got its ass kicked...

But I'm not surprised...

Still, I wish the Socialists would have been forced into a coalition with the extreme left.


From: Cornwall, ON | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 27 February 2005 05:29 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by NDP Newbie:
I wish the Socialists would have been forced into a coalition with the extreme left.

Really? With the trots and miscellaneous marxists in the Left Bloc? They can't even agree with each other.

Or do you mean with the Communist / Green alliance, whom the Left Bloc denounce as too responsible? That could have worked.


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NDP Newbie
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posted 27 February 2005 06:12 PM      Profile for NDP Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Wilfred Day:

Really? With the trots and miscellaneous marxists in the Left Bloc? They can't even agree with each other.

Or do you mean with the Communist / Green alliance, whom the Left Bloc denounce as too responsible? That could have worked.


What's so bad about Trots? They're leading the charge for democracy and liberty and equality in Hong Kong. Anybody who battles both post-Stalinist and corporate interests kicks ass.


From: Cornwall, ON | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 27 February 2005 07:02 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Correio da Manha says (translated):

quote:
The left swept Portugal as has not been seen since the years 1975 and 1976.

This victory of the PS balances the political map of the European Union, that now has 13 center-right and right governments and 12 socialist governments.


(As an aside, I note that they title Lisbon "THE URBAN AREA OF LISBON -- A EUROPEAN And ATLANTIC METROPOLIS." (I can see the Mayor's letterhead now: "Toronto -- A Northern World Metropolis." Maybe we should start a contest for the best name.)

[ 27 February 2005: Message edited by: Wilfred Day ]


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged

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