Anyway, I'm just throwing this idea out for discussion.

[ 30 March 2005: Message edited by: fatal ruminate ]

I'd be more worried if Taiwan were on land, directly attached to China (like Tibet). Because it is an island, the logistics of capturing it and holding it against the will of much of the world become very tricky (and expensive). I really don't think that China will do anything beyond sabre-rattling.

quote:

---

Originally posted by fatal ruminate:
Perhaps a peace protest at the Chinese Embassy would convince their leaders that they have more to lose by taking offensive actions against Taiwan than they would gain?

---

Somehow I doubt that's gonna work. I mean, think about it - if they can shoot unblinkingly into a hundred thousand protesters in Tiananmen Square, then somehow I doubt they're going to be swayed much by a few peaceniks protesting outside their embassy in Canada.

[ 31 March 2005: Message edited by: Michelle ]

quote:

---

While in Palau for a meet'm-greet'm and photo op, he was on the tropical beach in a full scuba suit; most every one else was wearing grass.

---

Omigod!

With such enormous economic interests at stake, Taiwanese big business is bringing intense pressure to bear on Chen Shui-bian and his government to bring about a rapprochement with Beijing. The opening of “mini-links” is likely to be only the first in a series of steps aimed at removing all restrictions on investment and economic relations between China and Taiwan."

quote:

---

follow the money, and i think you'll find there isn't much appetite for a war.

---

Exactly. China today is quite similar today to what Taiwan was under the KMT.

And while we're at it, sign a non-aggression pact with Bushler. And better that nobody threatens to burn down the reichstag, please.

[ 01 April 2005: Message edited by: Fidel ]

quote:

---

Originally posted by Michelle:

Somehow I doubt that's gonna work. I mean, think about it - if they can shoot unblinkingly into a hundred thousand protesters in Tiananmen Square, then somehow I doubt they're going to be swayed much by a few peaceniks protesting outside their embassy in Canada.

[ 31 March 2005: Message edited by: Michelle ]

---

Ah, but we have something those poor unfortunates didn't have, economic clout. Much of China's economy depends on the export of consumer goods. Faced with a boycott, the government might reconsider their efforts to forcibly annex Taiwan.
I don't think we should count on the US to defend Taiwan. Remember Kuwait? Hussein thought he had tacit premission from the US to take them over. Some similar happened with Korea in the early fifties.

quote:

---

Originally posted by nister:
fI think the US won't toe the line, and Taiwan's toast.

---

This is what I fear as well. That is why I think a pre-emptive declaration of a consumer boycott on "Made in China" goods might be more effective than any putative US support for Taiwan.

Orginally, it was Japan and the United State's dependancy on this production that framed their pro-Taiwan foreign relations stance, this of course is shifting as the Mainland gains clout, but at the same time, the economic interdependancy between the PRC and Taiwan is analogous to American - Canadian economic ties. Sure, the PRC could get along without Taiwan, but it would certainly hurt quite a bit.