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Author Topic: U.S. losing Central Asia to Russia
nister
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posted 23 May 2006 09:40 AM      Profile for nister     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Last year saw the inaugural meeting of the Shanghai Cooperative Organization, consisting of China, Russia, Kazakstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgystan. The cooperative seems to have but one purpose, the expulsion of American military from the area. The Uzbeks wasted no time in closing the U.S. base there and Kyrgystan is demanding a hundredfold increase in the annual rent the Americans pay for their base there. The Americans are loathe to vacate because the Chinese airfield down the road is home to SU-27 fighter-bombers with Sunburn anti-ship hypercruise missiles.

The cooperative will meet June 15 in Shanghai to consider adding India, Pakistan, Mongolia, and Iran to the fold.

Iran's inclusion may finally get the media's attention. All other signatories are nominally "friends" of the U.S., but membership for Iran puts the other members in the "friends of the terrorists" camp. India, with the Aegis-equipped navy courtesy of the U.S., and PJ-10 BrahMos hypercruise missile courtesy of Russia, would be a particularly stinging defeat for U.S. hegemony.


From: Barrie, On | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
ceti
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posted 23 May 2006 10:50 AM      Profile for ceti     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Or Russia recovering Central Asia from the U.S.?

Russia, Iran, and India are old allies of the Northern Alliance and have worked together against the Pakistan-backed Taliban regime, that was also initially supported by the US.

So this time of alliance or at least cooperation has clear antecedents. Unfortunately, which ever power bloc you align with, doesn't mean much for democracy in Central Asia.


From: various musings before the revolution | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
nister
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posted 23 May 2006 12:36 PM      Profile for nister     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Taiwan's Chen seems desperate to blunt the new club's sway. Over the last few months, he has been publicly rebuffed by Bush three times; the last when he tried to invite himself to the White House following Hu's "official" visit there. My sense is that Taiwan is smelling the coffee, and awaking to the fact that America won't go to war in their defense.
From: Barrie, On | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
otter
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posted 23 May 2006 04:26 PM      Profile for otter        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
You may well be on to something there Nister. Taiwan has long been a pita to China and now that the u.s.of a. is waltzing with China Taiwan needs to find a new champion quickly.
From: agent provocateur inc. | Registered: Feb 2006  |  IP: Logged
nister
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posted 23 May 2006 06:19 PM      Profile for nister     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Hi otter. My read is different; China and U.S. are on the outs. Watch for China to slow their economy, but spend on space. The U.S. will keep clucking about that, but they want to spend on space too. Enough that they expect to hire some
70,000 technicians and scientists from India, ostensibly for BMD.

From: Barrie, On | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
Brett Mann
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posted 23 May 2006 07:22 PM      Profile for Brett Mann        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The Russians and the Chinese are great chess-players, with the Chinese reputed to be especially good at "the long game". Sometimes the US surprises me though, because although I have them pegged as amateurs at this game, they sometimes win, as in the demolition of the Soviet Union. God help me, I'm beginning to think that an understanding of basic human morality is incompatible with understanding geo-political power politics.
From: Prince Edward County ON | Registered: Jul 2004  |  IP: Logged
Cueball
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posted 23 May 2006 09:29 PM      Profile for Cueball   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
K. Start with getting rid of that idea that there is something that can really be called a "basic human morality," it is in there where all of your preset ideological dispositions that don't mesh with the realities, and therefore confuse you, are embedded, like so many duplicitious FOX News correspondents.

Start by trying to get your head around this:

Now, as Ceti intimates: What I want to ask is when Central Asia became part of the US backyard? By which I mean, at what point did we decide that the Central Asia was clearly within the US sphere of influence, as is say Colombia.

Point being that the construction of this discussion is interesting, in that it seems to me that it is Russia which is struggling to maintain control of its traditional proxies, proxies that it has had almost absolute control over since about 1886?

Afghanistan was the very outer limit of that sphere of influence, known as the Russian empire, and later the Soviet Union.

It seems very interesting that we are exhibiting a type of discourse which asserts that the US is on the defensive against a Russian politcal offensive, when in fact it seems to me that the narrative is exactly opposite to that -- it is the Russians that are losing Central Asia.

Russian "agressors," US "defenders," are we falling victim to a propoganda trope set in the terms of the reigning ideology?

[ 23 May 2006: Message edited by: Cueball ]


From: Out from under the bridge and out for a stroll | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
ceti
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posted 25 May 2006 06:33 AM      Profile for ceti     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Plus, Russia's main objective for the past century was to prevent being encircled and to secure their frontier. The forward position of missile deployment and US bases on Russia's inner doorstep is a devestating reminder of their vulnerability (dating back to 1918 when even Canadian police occupied bits of Russia).

All the ham-handed ways in which Russia has reacted to the so-called colour-coded revolutions (all helped immeasurably by US "democracy experts"), can be traced to this fear. Their one bright spot is that China is no longer hostile as it was during the latter half of the cold war.


From: various musings before the revolution | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
nister
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posted 25 May 2006 08:01 AM      Profile for nister     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
ceti, America has to resort to "over the horizon" military presence, such as can be provided by carrier group, or island airfields to the south, more and more. They are losing their "footprint" in the region. I'd say that Russia has been rather astute.

Part of the "grand game" playing out in the region is the hoped-for Haifa oil terminus. A section of the Trans-Arabian Pipeline, mothballed in 1948, runs through Syria from Iraq
to Israel. One of the first objectives in the 2003 invasion was to secure the pumping stations in the Iraqi "leg".


From: Barrie, On | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
nister
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posted 05 June 2006 02:48 PM      Profile for nister     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
India has pulled the plug on the Agni 111 missile, just days before the Shanghai Conference is to consider India's inclusion in the group. The road and rail-mobile ICBM put China under India's nuclear orbit; the range is roughly 2,000 miles. Analysts say the Agni 111 only makes sense if China is considered a threat. Neighboring Pakistan is a comparative stone's throw.

$10 says Rice or Rummy will announce a courtesy call to India tout-suite.


From: Barrie, On | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
Phred
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posted 07 June 2006 08:22 AM      Profile for Phred     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Doesn't China own the U.S's debt? Would that not give China this huge advatange over the states in that China could fuck them up pretty badly if they wanted too (economically anyways)?
From: Ottawa | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
500_Apples
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posted 07 June 2006 09:59 AM      Profile for 500_Apples   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Yes but USA can also fuck over China pretty badly. A 25% tarrif on chineese goods and boom. Though of course that would give the US economy a correction.
From: Montreal, Quebec | Registered: Jun 2006  |  IP: Logged
Cueball
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posted 07 June 2006 10:10 AM      Profile for Cueball   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by nister:
India has pulled the plug on the Agni 111 missile, just days before the Shanghai Conference is to consider India's inclusion in the group. The road and rail-mobile ICBM put China under India's nuclear orbit; the range is roughly 2,000 miles. Analysts say the Agni 111 only makes sense if China is considered a threat. Neighboring Pakistan is a comparative stone's throw.

$10 says Rice or Rummy will announce a courtesy call to India tout-suite.


Interesting analysis. Post me if this occurs.


From: Out from under the bridge and out for a stroll | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Fidel
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posted 07 June 2006 11:08 AM      Profile for Fidel     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by nister:
ceti, America has to resort to "over the horizon" military presence, such as can be provided by carrier group, or island airfields to the south, more and more. They are losing their "footprint" in the region. I'd say that Russia has been rather astute.

The Yanks claim to be able to assert military presence all over the world with small numbers of troops, and I think it's possible. They still maintain almost 900 military installations. They are in Europe, supposedly to protect that part of the world from a cold war threat that doesn't exist anymore. And now there is talk of American missiles in Eastern Europe. The military industrial complex is desperate for a real enemy.

I think the shadow gov and corporate hirelings have their fingers crossed concerning Iraq, the biggest project and going concern. The Yanks are wanting to do what they ran out of time to finish in Vietnam. And that's to leave an army capable of defending corporate America's interests. It didn't happen in Nam, and it likely won't happen again in Iraq by the looks of it.

quote:
Part of the "grand game" playing out in the region is the hoped-for Haifa oil terminus.

Really ?.


From: Viva La Revolución | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
arborman
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posted 07 June 2006 11:14 AM      Profile for arborman     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by 500_Apples:
Yes but USA can also fuck over China pretty badly. A 25% tarrif on chineese goods and boom. Though of course that would give the US economy a correction.

A correction is an understatement. And China could just dump it's massive US currency reserves to bring the dollar down by 25% within about a day - effectively erasing the tariff. No pain for China, big pain for the US.

I find it really peculiar that the most right-wing government in recent US history has gone to such enormous lengths to place themselves in such a subervient position to a totalitarian Communist regime.

The economy is a means to an end for the Chinese leadership - they would sacrifice it if they felt threatened. The economy is the whole reason for existence of much of the US leadership, and they would sacrifice almost everything else to preserve it even for a short time. (see: Climate change)

That means that China, by threatening to dump their US reserves, and worse yet, their US T-Bills, has the US over a barrel. Taiwan needs a new friend for that reason, because the US will sell them out in the end.


From: I'm a solipsist - isn't everyone? | Registered: Aug 2003  |  IP: Logged
Merowe
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posted 07 June 2006 12:01 PM      Profile for Merowe     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I'm just learning about the China thing, haven't analyzed it...but surely, if it's Chinese geld that is floating the US economy to the tune of a billion or two a day, they kinda need each other at the moment. Wonder how they will decouple? Which somehow I think they must; which will lead of course to all sorts of competition. China scrambling for oil resources to fuel its boom, America's desperate attempts to secure control over same...yes, this one's not going away, I think it'll be the big story over the next decade.
From: Dresden, Germany | Registered: Apr 2003  |  IP: Logged
eau
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posted 07 June 2006 12:29 PM      Profile for eau        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Your headline made me think that Central Asia was never Americas to lose? Exploit maybe, but never lose.
From: BC | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
Papal Bull
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posted 07 June 2006 12:45 PM      Profile for Papal Bull   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by ceti:
(dating back to 1918 when even Canadian police occupied bits of Russia).

This sounds cool! Could you give me some information on this? I've never heard about that.


From: Vatican's best darned ranch | Registered: Oct 2004  |  IP: Logged
nister
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posted 14 June 2006 07:51 AM      Profile for nister     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Ahmadinajad is in China today, by invitation of the Shanghai Conference convening tomorrow. Hu Jintao has stated that Iran's impasse with the U.S. is not on the agenda, but private meetings with Hu and Putin are in the cards.

I thought it significant that China announced the advent of a new ICBM yesterday, on the heels of India's mothballing their own ICBM that would have put China under threat.


From: Barrie, On | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
arborman
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posted 14 June 2006 11:13 AM      Profile for arborman     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Papal Bull:

This sounds cool! Could you give me some information on this? I've never heard about that.


I knew that there were some Canadian troops in Russia shortly after WWI trying to help the White Russians fight the Bolsheviks, but there has never been much discussion of it. In fact, that's the extent of my knowledge.


From: I'm a solipsist - isn't everyone? | Registered: Aug 2003  |  IP: Logged
nister
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posted 07 July 2006 07:14 AM      Profile for nister     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Yet another arms procurement by India, and more desperation from Taiwan: The Indian Navy is buying Russian frigates as platform for their hyper-cruise BrahMos anti-ship missiles, making them capable of destroying American carriers with conventional warheads. The U.S. must be kicking themselves for sharing Aegis targetting technology with the Indians. 28 KLUB land missiles are also sought; these are for the submarines Russia has already supplied.

Taiwan is abandoning the 300 kilometre range limit it "self-imposed" on its missile systems, in concert with the U.S. The new range is to be 600 kilometres, bringing the mainland into play. Further range increases are contemplated.


From: Barrie, On | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
Fidel
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posted 07 July 2006 07:59 AM      Profile for Fidel     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by arborman:

I knew that there were some Canadian troops in Russia shortly after WWI trying to help the White Russians fight the Bolsheviks, but there has never been much discussion of it. In fact, that's the extent of my knowledge.


As did other armies and mercenaries from Spain, England, U.S.A., Japan and about 20 other nations. An American contingent of about 3000 ventured into the heart of Russia along with Czechs from the east and were never heard from again. Germans, Brits, Canadians, Spaniards and more attacked from the west. Russia was torn apart.

Throngs of hungry Russian's traveled to the Czar's palace and pleaded for relief leading up to 1917. They were ordered shot to death at the gates. Russian royals lived in opluence and entertained European royalty in any of their 30 odd summer and winter palaces while sacrificing Russian peasants to war with their relations in Germany. Life was cheap in Russia century after oppressive century.

[ 07 July 2006: Message edited by: Fidel ]


From: Viva La Revolución | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Dead_Letter
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posted 07 July 2006 09:23 PM      Profile for Dead_Letter     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Fidel:

As did other armies and mercenaries from Spain, England, U.S.A., Japan and about 20 other nations. An American contingent of about 3000 ventured into the heart of Russia along with Czechs from the east and were never heard from again. Germans, Brits, Canadians, Spaniards and more attacked from the west. Russia was torn apart.

Throngs of hungry Russian's traveled to the Czar's palace and pleaded for relief leading up to 1917. They were ordered shot to death at the gates. Russian royals lived in opluence and entertained European royalty in any of their 30 odd summer and winter palaces while sacrificing Russian peasants to war with their relations in Germany. Life was cheap in Russia century after oppressive century.

[ 07 July 2006: Message edited by: Fidel ]


Still seems to be, unfortunately. Unrelated, but I think the human destruction Stalin wreaked upon his own people makes him the worst leader in human history.

[ 07 July 2006: Message edited by: Dead_Letter ]


From: Vancouver | Registered: Jun 2006  |  IP: Logged
Dead_Letter
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posted 07 July 2006 10:00 PM      Profile for Dead_Letter     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Cueball:
K. Start with getting rid of that idea that there is something that can really be called a "basic human morality," it is in there where all of your preset ideological dispositions that don't mesh with the realities, and therefore confuse you, are embedded, like so many duplicitious FOX News correspondents.

Start by trying to get your head around this:

Now, as Ceti intimates: What I want to ask is when Central Asia became part of the US backyard? By which I mean, at what point did we decide that the Central Asia was clearly within the US sphere of influence, as is say Colombia.

Point being that the construction of this discussion is interesting, in that it seems to me that it is Russia which is struggling to maintain control of its traditional proxies, proxies that it has had almost absolute control over since about 1886?

Afghanistan was the very outer limit of that sphere of influence, known as the Russian empire, and later the Soviet Union.

It seems very interesting that we are exhibiting a type of discourse which asserts that the US is on the defensive against a Russian politcal offensive, when in fact it seems to me that the narrative is exactly opposite to that -- it is the Russians that are losing Central Asia.

Russian "agressors," US "defenders," are we falling victim to a propoganda trope set in the terms of the reigning ideology?

[ 23 May 2006: Message edited by: Cueball ]


You're right about the Russians actually losing influence in Central Asia. But I disagree with the thread title and subsequent discourse for another reason: no, then little, mention of China. Russia's plan for regaining lost influence revolves around allying itself with China in a pretty unequal partnership. The Russians will continue to lose power and influence in the region by their lonesome. China has the hammer there (the sickle too? ), which they didn't in past Sino-Soviet alliances. So since 1989, Russia has lost influence in the region, China and America have gained some. Russia is trying to stop the bleeding by linking with China and China holds all the cards there. What'll happen from here on out, who knows ...

But USA losing Central Asia? They never had it and you're right to point that out.

[ 07 July 2006: Message edited by: Dead_Letter ]


From: Vancouver | Registered: Jun 2006  |  IP: Logged
nister
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posted 09 July 2006 07:54 AM      Profile for nister     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Cueball, India has tested the Agni 111, the ICBM they said they were abandoning just a month ago. The Agni 111 is seen as a threat to China; India has tried-and-true missiles to array against Pakistan.

I don't think India has had a change of heart regarding alliances with China and Russia; more likely China has encouraged India to do a little "sabre rattling".

Media coverage of this missile test should be illuminating.


From: Barrie, On | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
Fidel
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posted 09 July 2006 12:05 PM      Profile for Fidel     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Dead_Letter:

Still seems to be, unfortunately. Unrelated, but I think the human destruction Stalin wreaked upon his own people makes him the worst leader in human history.

[ 07 July 2006: Message edited by: Dead_Letter ]


Hitler


From: Viva La Revolución | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged

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