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Author Topic: Iggy or Rae: who would the NDP rather face?
JeffWells
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posted 21 October 2008 12:50 PM      Profile for JeffWells     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I had assumed Iggy would be the preferred opponent, since he wouldn't be easily mistaken for a "progressive," but now I'm thinking Rae.

To seriously contend in Canada under the current system a party needs to dominate one major region - the West, Ontario or Quebec - and pick up the balance elsewhere. The Conservatives hold the West and the BQ have taken Quebec off the table. Ontario is where governments are made, and where the NDP have to breakthrough a ceiling of about 20 seats if it's going to seriously contend for power.

How would Rae be received in Ontario, particularly in a time of economic uncertainty? Outside of a handful of already Liberal ridings in the Toronto core, I don't think he would better Dion's performance. His crotchety obsession with defeating his old team would have the perverse effect of boosting the NDP's visibility and mitigating the media's inclination to make it a two-party contest. He would also be an ever present reminder to those who still curse the party's name for his tenure in Queen's Park that he's not hung around our necks anymore. And I think he would inspire the most highly motivated NDP campaign yet.

Iggy, though undeniably a centre-right Liberal, would still hold appeal for "strategic voters" determined to dislodge Harper at any cost, particularly since he is more likely to receive a a flattering portrayal as a "Prime Minister in waiting" by the media. I'm afraid the nuances of where Iggy falls on the policy spectrum won't matter as much to those whose votes the NDP needs to make the next step up, because those voters will not be voting for ideological reasons.

So - go Rae go!


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farnival
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posted 21 October 2008 01:00 PM      Profile for farnival     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
i posted in the McKenna thread that Iggy would be the best opponent. Rae is, in my evaluation of the comments i get nearly daily in toronto here, completely unelectable in Ontario and foaming at the mouth hated by nearly everyone i came in contact with during the election, regarless of party affiliation.

The NDP would benefit from a Liberal minority, with and NDP balance of power. Iggy would pull this off in my view.

It would be much easier for the NDP to bend his ear to accomplish our goals legislatively, than it would be with Bob "i hate the NDP" Rae.


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JeffWells
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posted 21 October 2008 01:13 PM      Profile for JeffWells     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by farnival:

It would be much easier for the NDP to bend his ear to accomplish our goals legislatively, than it would be with Bob "i hate the NDP" Rae.


I would agree with that, Iggy would probably make a better parliamentary partner for the NDP. Particularly since he would be more likely to be in a position to form a government than Rae. I was speculating about only the election, and I think contrary to a lot of assumptions, Iggy would be the NDP's more formidable opponent.

[ 21 October 2008: Message edited by: JeffWells ]


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JeffWells
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posted 21 October 2008 01:14 PM      Profile for JeffWells     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
oops - deleted.

[ 21 October 2008: Message edited by: JeffWells ]


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Malcolm
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posted 21 October 2008 06:14 PM      Profile for Malcolm   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Actually, Joe Volpe would be the ideal Liberal leader.

Seriously, I'd have thought Iggy was the best opponent for us.

But then, I though Dion would be the most damaging to us, so what do I know?


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adma
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posted 21 October 2008 06:31 PM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Re facing Rae: ask El-Farouk Khaki. (I guess.)
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JeffWells
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posted 21 October 2008 06:51 PM      Profile for JeffWells     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by adma:
Re facing Rae: ask El-Farouk Khaki. (I guess.)

There's a reason Rae ran as a Liberal in Toronto Centre.


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Cueball
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posted 21 October 2008 06:57 PM      Profile for Cueball   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Nice slag. 'Cept Khaki was not nominated as the NDP candidate before Rae decided to run in the by-election in Toronto Center. That happened after. Or did you have another reason in mind?

[ 21 October 2008: Message edited by: Cueball ]


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JeffWells
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posted 21 October 2008 07:25 PM      Profile for JeffWells     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think you know well enough that I'm saying Toronto Centre is Toronto's Mount Royal. It's hardly representative of how a Rae-led Liberal Party would fare in Ontario. Though the more Liberals who would like to think so, the merrier.

[ 21 October 2008: Message edited by: JeffWells ]


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ravenj
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posted 21 October 2008 07:41 PM      Profile for ravenj     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Liberals will not elect Rae as the leader - period. There is zero chance Liberals will touch him now the country is into recession. Conservatives will have a field day with Rae's (and the Ontario NDP government's) record.

But as for his popularity in Toronto Centre - no question, he has a lot of support from left-leaning voters.


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longtime lurker
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posted 21 October 2008 08:04 PM      Profile for longtime lurker        Edit/Delete Post
Got to be Ignatieff from an NDP standpoint I would think as the two right wing parties argument would actually have some validity.
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Lord Palmerston
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posted 21 October 2008 08:19 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Iggy would definitely be better from an NDP point of view. He would not do as well among Lib/NDP swing voters as Rae would. I also don't think he'd take much of the Tory vote either because Harper comes across as much more of a populist.
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NorthReport
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posted 21 October 2008 08:26 PM      Profile for NorthReport     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
At this point it my hunch is that the NDP response would be - bring it on as it makes no matter who is the Liberal leader.

Rae and ignatieff are both pushing for a quick leadership race before others get a chance to get organized.

Most Liberals by now must be tired of both Rae and ignatieff, and their desperate quest to be top Liberal dog. We can probably expect someone else to come along that will be more welcomed by the Liberal hierarchy.

quote:
Originally posted by longtime lurker:
[QB]Got to be Ignatieff from an NDP standpoint I would think as the two right wing parties argument would actually have some validity.[/Q]

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JeffWells
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posted 21 October 2008 08:42 PM      Profile for JeffWells     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Malcolm:
But then, I though Dion would be the most damaging to us, so what do I know?

I thought Layton's remark that Dion would never be Liberal leader because he had too much integrity would come back to haunt him. Some pundit I'd make.

I thought, and still do, that the most damaging would be Kennedy. But he's still $200,000 in debt from last time and with a shortened leadership race (and since Rae and Iggy never stopped running) I don't think he can muster it. Also, I think there'll be a been there, tried that air about him and any "compromise" candidate.


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V. Jara
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posted 21 October 2008 10:43 PM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think Rae is more of a danger to the NDP, because they haven't figured out how to effectively attack him yet. They'd have to try and paint as uncaring or something and that's pretty risky- because everyone already knows he is a hypocrite.

I think if he wins (which he won't), the NDP strategy will be to celebrate his victory with a big spring cleaning party: yeah we finally managed to get rid of all our yardsale junk, hooray!


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Lord Palmerston
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posted 21 October 2008 10:51 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I really hope they don't try to attack Rae by saying since he's with the Liberals now, the NDP can no longer be blamed for being "fiscally irresponsible"
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adma
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posted 22 October 2008 03:59 AM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by JeffWells:
I think you know well enough that I'm saying Toronto Centre is Toronto's Mount Royal. It's hardly representative of how a Rae-led Liberal Party would fare in Ontario. Though the more Liberals who would like to think so, the merrier.

[ 21 October 2008: Message edited by: JeffWells ]


Though my invoking El-Farouk Khaki had less to do with any chance he had of winning, than with the fact that, in a *general* election (never mind the byelection), the NDP slid from a solid 23 3/4% second place share to 15% and third place behind a hastily-nominated Tory.

Besides, even Mount Royal ain't what it used to be, what with the highest Tory share in the Montreal region...


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Stockholm
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posted 22 October 2008 06:23 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think that Khaki was probably a less attractive candidate than Shapcott and also having the so-called Green candidate at 13% instead of 5% cut into everyone's vote - plus Rae might have a attracted some people who might have otherwise voted NDP in that riding - but Bill Graham would have done that to some extent as well.

Keep in mind that the old provincial riding of St. George-St. David (which is a close match to Toronto Centre) was just about the only riding in Ontario that the NDP lost in 1990 and then came close to winning in 1995 - so its may be a total anomaly.


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1948
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posted 22 October 2008 06:55 AM      Profile for 1948   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think Rae causes New Dems a lot of angst but I don't think he atually does the party much harm.

When Ujjal Dosanjh joined the Liberals we saw a lot of the same angst.

In the end what happened?

In 2004, Dosanjh became the face of the BC Liberals. Their share of the popular vote in BC has declined in every subsequent election. Last week they ran fourth in a bunch of BC ridings and their overall support was in the teens. Ten points lower than it was in 2000. Dosanjh may yet lose his seat.

What about Rae's impact in Ontario? Rae was sent to rally the troops in Northen Ontario. The results? Liberals lost five seats in Northern Ontario to the NDP and one seat to the Tories. In Ontario overall, the Liberals were down 6 points. The NDP down one.

Rae and Dosanjh haven't really been hurting the NDP much yet. Not sure why we would assume that will change.


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Lord Palmerston
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posted 22 October 2008 11:29 AM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
Keep in mind that the old provincial riding of St. George-St. David (which is a close match to Toronto Centre) was just about the only riding in Ontario that the NDP lost in 1990 and then came close to winning in 1995 - so its may be a total anomaly.

1990
* Ian Scott (L) 10718
* Carolann Wright (NDP) 10646
* Keith Norton (PC) 6955
* Ken Campbell (FCP) 932
* Beverly Antrobus (Lbt) 455

1995
* Al Leach (PC) 10662
* Tim Murphy (L) 10325
* Brent Hawkes (NDP) 9672
* Linda Gibbons (Ind) 326
* Chris Lea (G) 241
* Ron Robins (NLP) 151
* Alex Nosal (Ind) 98

Returning to 2008...it's interesting how despite having the former "socialist" Rae as MP, there has been no uptick in the Conservative vote.


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statica
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posted 22 October 2008 11:34 AM      Profile for statica   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'm not in the NDP, but if it's Rae, I'm taking my toaster into the bath...seriously....

(I know, that's wrong wrong wrong as an ati-war activist, but ...ZAP)


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remind
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posted 22 October 2008 12:00 PM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by statica:
I'm not in the NDP, but if it's Rae, I'm taking my toaster into the bath...seriously....

(I know, that's wrong wrong wrong as an ati-war activist, but ...ZAP)


Did not realize your personal and professional investment was so high in the Liberal Party, that you would consider such a thing.


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statica
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posted 22 October 2008 12:15 PM      Profile for statica   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Did not realize your personal and professional investment was so high in the Liberal Party, that you would consider such a thing

yes yes, and maybe NorthReport will start a thread advocating for my demise

actually, i just got hired as the Liberal Party's chair of Franco-Anglo relations. Duceppe and I are heading to Montreal tomorrow, we'll have a meal in the park with some red screw top from the Deppaneur

and hell, I've been invited to EMAY's hallowe'en party, I hear she's dressing up as Dion.

quote:
I really hope they don't try to attack Rae by saying since he's with the Liberals now, the NDP can no longer be blamed for being "fiscally irresponsible"

they are gonna be all over that like heat, Lord Palm.


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Lord Palmerston
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posted 22 October 2008 12:20 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
You're probably right - the NDP always feels a duty to tout how balanced budgets as a top priority. Instead of challenging this neoliberal line, they say hey we can balance budgets with the rest of them (and in fact do it better!)
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Left J.A.B.
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posted 22 October 2008 12:30 PM      Profile for Left J.A.B.     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
If Layton had mused about running a deficit in the media there would have been a shit storm. Harper can do it, and now many of the same commentators can do it that would have been at the centre of causing said shit storm.
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Stockholm
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posted 22 October 2008 12:34 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The thing about Rae is that he doesn't have a populist bone in his body and will probably be not have much appeal to the blue collar NDP voters that have given us all those seats in the north, Hamilton, Windsor, Welland etc...

There are probably SOME Liberal/NDP swing voters in places like the Annex and Cabbagetown who kind of like Rae's snooty, patrician style - but that's about it.


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JeffWells
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posted 22 October 2008 12:38 PM      Profile for JeffWells     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I like the understatement from a Liberal contact in Doug Bell's blog yesterday:

quote:
He also notes that Rae's support in Ontario beyond "the Rosedale Tennis Club where Bob, Sorbara and Smitherman sit around talking about the poor" is less than it seems.


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remind
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posted 22 October 2008 12:45 PM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by statica:
yes yes, and maybe NorthReport will start a thread advocating for my demise

Huh? Where did that come from?


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adma
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posted 22 October 2008 06:14 PM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Lord Palmerston:
Returning to 2008...it's interesting how despite having the former "socialist" Rae as MP, there has been no uptick in the Conservative vote.

Though considering the Tory candidate controversy and quick switcheroo, it's interesting that Conservatives held close to their '06 vote at all--and reattained 2nd place in the process...


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Malcolm
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posted 22 October 2008 11:55 PM      Profile for Malcolm   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Lord Palmerston:
Iggy would definitely be better from an NDP point of view. He would not do as well among Lib/NDP swing voters as Rae would. I also don't think he'd take much of the Tory vote either because Harper comes across as much more of a populist.

I had remarked elsewhere that if Red Tory Patrick Boyer had defeated Blue Liberal Michael Ignatieff, it would have served to shift both caucusses to the left.


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melovesproles
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posted 23 October 2008 12:09 AM      Profile for melovesproles     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
The NDP would benefit from a Liberal minority, with and NDP balance of power. Iggy would pull this off in my view.

It would be much easier for the NDP to bend his ear to accomplish our goals legislatively, than it would be with Bob "i hate the NDP" Rae.


I haven't seen a shred of evidence that Ignatieff would consider working with the NDP. His whole narrative is that the NDP is on the extreme left and the Liberals are a "centrist" party with more similarities to the Cons. As we all saw with Iraq, Ignatieff has very very little time for the left and sees them purely as an annoyance.


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Stockholm
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posted 23 October 2008 06:11 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
People do what they have to do if they want to be in power. Paul Martin was as right wing fanatic, but he was willing to go cap in hand to the NDP when it meant giving his government a six month lease on life.

Ignatieff is apparently not that difficult to get a long with on a personal level. Rae on the other hand, is such a vicious anti-NDP zealot and spends so much of his time launching personal attacks on anyone and everyone in his former party that a Liberal Party led by Rae would be quickly isolated and uanble to work with anyone in a minority situation.


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janfromthebruce
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posted 23 October 2008 06:27 AM      Profile for janfromthebruce     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
People do what they have to do if they want to be in power. Paul Martin was as right wing fanatic, but he was willing to go cap in hand to the NDP when it meant giving his government a six month lease on life.

Ignatieff is apparently not that difficult to get a long with on a personal level. Rae on the other hand, is such a vicious anti-NDP zealot and spends so much of his time launching personal attacks on anyone and everyone in his former party that a Liberal Party led by Rae would be quickly isolated and uanble to work with anyone in a minority situation.


So strategically, Bob is our man?


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Malcolm
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posted 23 October 2008 10:00 PM      Profile for Malcolm   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'm still holding out for Joe Volpe.
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V. Jara
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posted 24 October 2008 10:44 AM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Left J.A.B.:
If Layton had mused about running a deficit in the media there would have been a shit storm. Harper can do it, and now many of the same commentators can do it that would have been at the centre of causing said shit storm.

Amen. And Bay Street even praised his prudence. What a travesty of a mockery of a sham. If we're going to have a deficit is going to be because Harper has cut taxes so much the government has no revenue anymore. Harper will pretend that it's because of the current economic crisis, but the operating deficits started last spring. The NDP should be all over this instance of "fiscal mismanagement."


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V. Jara
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posted 24 October 2008 10:47 AM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
If the Libs pick Iggy, we'll have two leaders (Igster and Harpo) who would have taken Canada into Iraq. Canadians are going to love that one.
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Stockholm
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posted 24 October 2008 11:00 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
By the time of the next election, no one will care about who would or would not have gotten Canada involved in Iraq. Obama will be President and it will all be ancient history.

I can hardly wait to see Rae try to run for Liberal leader just as the recession hits Canada hard and there start be all kinds of retrospectives about the recession and towering deficits of the early 90s!!


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Lord Palmerston
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posted 24 October 2008 11:09 AM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
Obama will be President

...but he will not be pulling out of Iraq as quickly as many hope.


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Stockholm
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posted 24 October 2008 11:20 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Be that as it may - any ways you slice it - whether the next PM of Canada is Harper, Rae, Iggy, Layton or McKenna - Canada sending troops to Iraq will be completely out of the question.

If any significant number of Canadians were voting on foreign policy then the NDP - as the only party favouring a withdrawal from Afghanistan - would have won a majority government.


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Max Bialystock
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posted 24 October 2008 01:35 PM      Profile for Max Bialystock     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Harper and Obama will get along famously. I don't buy this nonsense about the Harperites quaking in fear that Obama will be too leftwing.
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JeffWells
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posted 24 October 2008 02:10 PM      Profile for JeffWells     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Max Bialystock:
Harper and Obama will get along famously. I don't buy this nonsense about the Harperites quaking in fear that Obama will be too leftwing.

quote:

"We're confronting an urgent crisis in Afghanistan. It's time to heed the call … for more troops. That's why I'd send at least two or three additional brigades."

Yup.


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Lord Palmerston
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posted 24 October 2008 02:29 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
More evidence that "change" means business as usual.
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Parkdale High Park
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posted 24 October 2008 03:00 PM      Profile for Parkdale High Park     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Ignatieff.

Why? Tory attack ads on Rae would be a double whammy - since they would also remind Ontarians of why only 6% of them voted NDP in 1993. A Rae candidacy would also increase the salience of economic issues, which are not the NDP's strength.

Layton needs to proactively re-insure the NDP against those sorts of attacks by having a detailed plan to deal with the financial crisis. I know you don't like him, but the NDP needs guys like Paul Summerville on their side to establish credibility.

Ignatieff, by contrast, prevents a number of opportunities. He has many statements on foreign policy that the left can capitalize on, plus there is the American thing. He has no expertise or experience on the economy. And, his Quebec strategy creates openings in Montreal. Ignatieff ran in 2006 by courting soft nationalists - that isn't going to endear him to Anglo Montreal, which is where the NDP can have a breakthrough if they put their minds to it.


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vaudree
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posted 24 October 2008 05:17 PM      Profile for vaudree     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Topic: Iggy or Rae: who would the NDP rather face?

Who would Howard Hampton or Jack Layton wish to face.

Seems that there is no reason for either not to want to face either Rae or Iggy.

The NDP would prefer to run against Rae's record rather than be tarred with it. And Layton had a point during the debates - that Tommy Douglas had 17 balanced budgets (after rescuing the Province from debt), and then there was Romanow, Howard Pauley, Ed Schreier (sp?), Doer ...

Iggy has soften his image since last time and, since the other opponent is the Conservatives, who are apt to down play the similarities between themselves and Iggy.

Iggy will definitely leave more room open on the left for Layton to pick up, and Ontario would prefer Layton to Rae.

But still I would rather it be Rae since the NDP needs to clear the air about Rae's past, which Rae blames on NDP values rather than his own incompetence. We need to purge Rae from the NDP brand - which will help the NDP more in the long run.

I think it will be Iggy because the Liberals are not stupid enough to go with Rae in bad economic times - not with the ghost of Ontario lurking over Rae's shoulder.

If McKenna enters - all bets off that it will be Iggy, but I doubt he will.

Was hoping that Khaki would beat Rae - would like to see Khaki during Question Period.

[ 24 October 2008: Message edited by: vaudree ]


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Lord Palmerston
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posted 24 October 2008 05:47 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by vaudree:
Who would Howard Hampton or Jack Layton wish to face.

Thankfully we'll never see a Howard "we knew Rae was a Liberal all along" Hampton vs. Bob Rae battle.


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
JeffWells
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posted 24 October 2008 05:55 PM      Profile for JeffWells     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by vaudree:


The NDP would prefer to run against Rae's record rather than be tarred with it.


Well said. And I agree, I doubt the Liberals will give us the opportunity.


From: Toronto | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
longtime lurker
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posted 25 October 2008 07:32 AM      Profile for longtime lurker        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Parkdale High Park:
Ignatieff.

Why? Tory attack ads on Rae would be a double whammy - since they would also remind Ontarians of why only 6% of them voted NDP in 1993. A Rae candidacy would also increase the salience of economic issues, which are not the NDP's strength.


Worth noting Bob Rae got more electoral support in Ontario in 1995, 20.6%, than Jack Layton just managed on Oct 14th, 18.2%. Perhaps the real disaster area in 1993 was having Audrey McLaughlin rather than Ed Broadbent?


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Stockholm
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posted 25 October 2008 07:53 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
When you are an incumbent government with about 70 MPPS all running for re-election - and all with some sort of local organization and personal following - its hard to get any lower than 20.6% of the provincial popular vote.

The 1995 election was still a total fiasco for Bob Rae any way you slice it.


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Malcolm
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posted 25 October 2008 10:10 PM      Profile for Malcolm   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Not that Audrey McLaughlin wasn't a disaster.
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V. Jara
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posted 27 October 2008 11:54 AM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Lysiane Gagnon for Iggy

When pundits imbibe in the Cool Aid like this, you know Michael "forced interrogation" Ignatieff is going to bomb with the public (pardon the War pun).


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vaudree
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posted 27 October 2008 01:00 PM      Profile for vaudree     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Mr. Ignatieff, on the other hand, has many assets when it comes to winning Quebec voters: flawless, elegant French, and dark, intense good looks that somewhat resemble those of Lucien Bouchard, the beloved icon of the 1990s. Mr. Ignatieff is a public intellectual rather than a straightforward academic, and Quebeckers love public intellectuals — people who are cultured, at ease with ideas and can philosophize on various themes.

So Iggy reminds her of both Bouchard and Trudeau - and the people at Air Farce of the Grinch.

The biggest disadvantage of Iggy being Liberal Leader is that his team won't be doing what they can to undermine the next Liberal Leader. Many of the leaks and the most damning stuff concerning Dion were coming from inside of the rank and file.

On the other hand, I think that Rae's group would be more likely to give whoever gets in a chance. I don't like Rae but I do have to admit that he is less likely to play dirty after the leadership race because he has more of a need to prove his loyalty to his new party (and more to lose if he appears in any way, shape or form disloyal to the Liberals). Thus, with Rae, it has to be Party first leader aspirations second. With Iggy's group, I don't think they make that distinction between what is good for the party and getting their guy in there.

The NDP I think would prefer Rae get in, just to finish with unfinished business. Both the NDP and the Cons would be painting Rae as tax and spend and as someone who can't handle money.

Iggy would move the Liberals more to the right so that potential NDPers would feel less comfortable moving over there to prevent the Tories from getting a majority. Also, I think that, if I am right about what has been going on, there are going to be those who feel that they can't support the Liberals with Iggy at the helm who will be moving over to the NDP - and I am talking big names.

Iggy is like Paul Martin on steroids and unless the new Liberal leader has the stamina of a Jean Cretien, they won't be able to handle an Iggy who came in second.

Jack Layton has to worry about the Greens poaching and the Liberals scaring people into voting Liberal to keep the Conservatives out.


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genstrike
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posted 27 October 2008 01:21 PM      Profile for genstrike   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by vaudree:

Also, I think that, if I am right about what has been going on, there are going to be those who feel that they can't support the Liberals with Iggy at the helm who will be moving over to the NDP - and I am talking big names.

You mean the NDP might get Bob Rae back? Hooray?


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Mojoroad1
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posted 27 October 2008 01:23 PM      Profile for Mojoroad1     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Might still be MR. SPP... this is going to be fun(ny?).


Manley Tests Liberal Waters

[ 27 October 2008: Message edited by: Mojoroad1 ]


From: Muskoka | Registered: Aug 2008  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
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posted 27 October 2008 02:29 PM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by vaudree:

So Iggy reminds her of both Bouchard and Trudeau - and the people at Air Farce of the Grinch.

The biggest disadvantage of Iggy being Liberal Leader is that his team won't be doing what they can to undermine the next Liberal Leader. Many of the leaks and the most damning stuff concerning Dion were coming from inside of the rank and file.

On the other hand, I think that Rae's group would be more likely to give whoever gets in a chance. I don't like Rae but I do have to admit that he is less likely to play dirty after the leadership race because he has more of a need to prove his loyalty to his new party (and more to lose if he appears in any way, shape or form disloyal to the Liberals). Thus, with Rae, it has to be Party first leader aspirations second. With Iggy's group, I don't think they make that distinction between what is good for the party and getting their guy in there.

The NDP I think would prefer Rae get in, just to finish with unfinished business. Both the NDP and the Cons would be painting Rae as tax and spend and as someone who can't handle money.

Iggy would move the Liberals more to the right so that potential NDPers would feel less comfortable moving over there to prevent the Tories from getting a majority. Also, I think that, if I am right about what has been going on, there are going to be those who feel that they can't support the Liberals with Iggy at the helm who will be moving over to the NDP - and I am talking big names.

Iggy is like Paul Martin on steroids and unless the new Liberal leader has the stamina of a Jean Cretien, they won't be able to handle an Iggy who came in second.

Jack Layton has to worry about the Greens poaching and the Liberals scaring people into voting Liberal to keep the Conservatives out.


Interesting perspective. My biggest problem with Rae as leader is what would be the NDP's response when he attacks them? He has little to no credibility re:NDP so what can you fire back with? Can you just ignore Bob Rae or do you eventually have to confront him? And when/if you confront him, what can be said that hasn't been said before? He has no credibility, all you can do is condemn him, and not have a clear (and new) angle from which to attack him was part of the NDP's problem in Toronto Centre.


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vaudree
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posted 27 October 2008 03:00 PM      Profile for vaudree     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Layton started the rebuttal at the debates when he said that, out of all the NDP Premiers, that the only one that could not budget financially was Rae. It will turn into Layton telling Rae that he is blaming his former party for his own incompetence and hint that Rae will do the same with his present party.

Layton pointed to Tommy Douglas's 17 balanced budgets.


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TCD
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posted 27 October 2008 05:30 PM      Profile for TCD     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by V. Jara:

Interesting perspective. My biggest problem with Rae as leader is what would be the NDP's response when he attacks them? He has little to no credibility re:NDP so what can you fire back with? Can you just ignore Bob Rae or do you eventually have to confront him? And when/if you confront him, what can be said that hasn't been said before? He has no credibility, all you can do is condemn him, and not have a clear (and new) angle from which to attack him was part of the NDP's problem in Toronto Centre.



With respect, the NDP's problem in Toronto Centre was a nice but not strong candidate, the riding itself, and the Toronto media who (uniquely in Canada) think the new Bob Rae is heavenly.

Off the top of my head, here's what I can attack Bob Rae on:
- He supports drawing out the war in Afghanistan.
- He supports massive reckless corporate tax cuts.
- He supports completely deregulating university tuition and charging your kids whatever the market will bear for their education.
- He supports a stupid carbon tax.
- He helped write the Constitution for Iraq (nice one!)
- He's brought the sleaziest Liberals onto his team.

I think Harper will delight in pointing to his absolutely dismal record as Premier (no party leader has lost more than 57 seats in a general election in Ontario's history) and I think the NDP has a responsibility to make him wear the shitshow that was his government (he IS trying to make Jack Layton wear it and he is a little more culpable).

That noted, elections are about the future and Rae is running to implement a bunch of bad ideas. He's not committed to social justice. He's committed to corporate tax cuts.


From: Toronto | Registered: Apr 2005  |  IP: Logged
janfromthebruce
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posted 27 October 2008 05:30 PM      Profile for janfromthebruce     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Iggy's our man.

Why - because who wants to waste time doing paybacks and doing tit for tat with Rae as faux leader. Cause when we are doing that stuff we are NOT talking about our policies and why we are the better alternatives.

Bob than has to "support right of centre" leader and that would make him a hypercritical and make him lose his credibility.

[ 27 October 2008: Message edited by: janfromthebruce ]

[ 27 October 2008: Message edited by: janfromthebruce ]


From: cow country | Registered: Apr 2007  |  IP: Logged
thorin_bane
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posted 27 October 2008 06:49 PM      Profile for thorin_bane     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I so want it to be manley. This guy is so hated by the axworthy's and tobin and rocks in the party it would be a bloodbath yet again. Plus how perfect from the NDP than someone who only want to be part of the US and gave complete consent to the cons to continue their hawk policies with bullshit caveats. Plus he represents the oldline martinites. He would be worse of a disaster than iggy IMHO. I can see liberal apathy at an all time high with him at the helm.

I think they will either swing left, or sharply to the right to out con the cons if that fails Trudeau will be in his mid 30's and be the left savior by then to lead the party back to the promise land. Funny thing is how much of a love affair will the canadian public have with Trudeau is my question.
Also will they give the next leader more than one election to beat harper? If they are waiting for trudeau in 3-7 year range they will try to out right the cons, esp after going(i guess) to the left with Dion. But If they are arrogant enough to try to go left to reseize power in the next election I think they will be in for a shock. My bet is they will go with the team approach this time unless the leader is VERY strong. Regardless of left or right.


From: Looking at the despair of Detroit from across the river! | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
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posted 27 October 2008 07:06 PM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Any predictions as to Liberal floor crossers? Will there be any?

Could it be Volpe, Szabo (will he stick around to support Ignatieff)?


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JeffWells
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posted 27 October 2008 07:32 PM      Profile for JeffWells     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Re the Liberal appeal to "progressive" and "strategic" voters, I don't think a new leader's ideology will be as much a factor as his or her chances of dispensing with Harper. And as dispassionately as I can judge these things, I expect Ignatieff would make the most credible run, which would increase the likelihood of a lot of voters holding their noses.

If the Liberal gods are crazy - and who knows, they just may be - Jack will get to run against Manley or Rae.


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Lord Palmerston
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posted 28 October 2008 12:17 AM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by V. Jara:
Could it be Volpe, Szabo (will he stick around to support Ignatieff)?

I can't see the Tories taking Volpe considering he was who they had in mind when they went complained about the "Libranos."

I could see Maurizio Bevilacqua crossing the floor though.


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
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posted 28 October 2008 10:31 AM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Lord Palmerston:

I can't see the Tories taking Volpe considering he was who they had in mind when they went complained about the "Libranos."

I could see Maurizio Bevilacqua crossing the floor though.


I think Volpe is someone that can be lured for the right price, but I think he will stay too. Perhaps because he fancies himself as some sort of king maker (lol) in the upcoming leadership race. It will be interesting to watch Bevilacqua, I could see him switch.

I predict Harper is going to make a strong push among the BQ for floor crossers.


From: - | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
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posted 31 October 2008 03:14 PM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
So no floor crossers yet. In other news, Rae's campaign is wheezing to a start.
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Lord Palmerston
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posted 31 October 2008 05:43 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
In a Globe article, Rae dismissed any notion that there was a left/right difference between him and Ignatieff.
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Tommy_Paine
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posted 31 October 2008 05:56 PM      Profile for Tommy_Paine     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
I think Volpe is someone that can be lured for the right price, but I think he will stay too. Perhaps because he fancies himself as some sort of king maker (lol) in the upcoming leadership race.

One of the great guffaws I had during the last Liberal leadership convention was watching Volpe position himself behind the candidate he crossed to, after he was dropped from the ballot. Every time he did that, the candidate was the next to go. Hillarious.

If Rae wins, we won't have to worry about attacking him. I'm sure the Conservatives are already developing commercial scripts for both Bennedict Rae, and Iggy Thumbscrews.

They will be branded long before the Liberals or NDP can brand them.

Unless there's some homo novus to come out of nowhere, I don't see that it matters much who the Liberals choose.

They're screwed.


From: The Alley, Behind Montgomery's Tavern | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
enemy_of_capital
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posted 02 November 2008 09:36 AM      Profile for enemy_of_capital     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I hope Rae wins but I think people discount his candidacy to early. he's volitile for the NDP. voters are weird. Yes they hate Bobby now but give him the leadership and we'll see what happens. I suspect he will look utterly rediculous during campaign time touting the "dare not vote NDP, for look what MY administration did to Ontario!" line. I say bring em on any of em!
From: Mississauga | Registered: Sep 2008  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
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posted 02 November 2008 05:01 PM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by enemy_of_capital:
I hope Rae wins but I think people discount his candidacy to early. he's volitile for the NDP. voters are weird. Yes they hate Bobby now but give him the leadership and we'll see what happens. I suspect he will look utterly rediculous during campaign time touting the "dare not vote NDP, for look what MY administration did to Ontario!" line. I say bring em on any of em!

We're definitely dealing with the B list candidates right now. I'd be tempted to call them C list.


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TCD
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posted 02 November 2008 07:59 PM      Profile for TCD     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Interesting poll in the Star from Angus Reid.

Former New Brunswick premier Frank McKenna was viewed favourably by 34 per cent of respondents and unfavourably by 22 per cent, which gave him a "favourability" score of +12.

Former Liberal finance minister John Manley viewed favourably by 30 per cent and unfavourably by 30 per cent, giving him a neutral score.

Ignatieff was viewed favourably by 30 per cent and unfavourably by 34 per cent, which gave him a favourability score of —4.

Rae was viewed favourably by 30 per cent and unfavourably by 44 per cent, which gave him a score of —14.

New Brunswick MP Dominic LeBlanc, the only other person who has confirmed his intention to run, scored —10, with 9 per cent of respondents holding a favourable view of him and 19 per cent viewing him unfavourably.

Interestingly, Former prime minister Jean Chrétien held a far lower favourability rating among Canadians at -22 (which makes one wonder if this guy really is as beloved as the Liberal rank-and-file think he is).

The online survey polled a randomly selected national sample of 1,006 adults from Oct. 28 to Oct. 29 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.


From: Toronto | Registered: Apr 2005  |  IP: Logged
madmax
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posted 06 November 2008 09:30 AM      Profile for madmax   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Gerard is phishing
From: Ontario | Registered: Apr 2008  |  IP: Logged
wage zombie
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posted 06 November 2008 12:24 PM      Profile for wage zombie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think Kennedy is the biggest threat to the NDP.

ETA: Because despite all his drawbacks i think he does want to reform the party.

[ 06 November 2008: Message edited by: wage zombie ]


From: sunshine coast BC | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
janfromthebruce
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posted 06 November 2008 01:39 PM      Profile for janfromthebruce     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
"Who can connect with and speak for the middle class, particularly in smaller cities and towns across Canada and in large Western cities?"

You mean a person who as a director of foodbanks kept them going through seeking and institutionalizing corporate donations?

I actually don't see him as having much substance and is shallow. He did alot of talking as a Min of Education but when he left, those policy drawers were empty because nothing was done.


From: cow country | Registered: Apr 2007  |  IP: Logged

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