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Author Topic: U.S Presidential and Senate polls
Adam T
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Babbler # 4631

posted 07 August 2008 09:29 PM      Profile for Adam T     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
State by state Presidential polls (mostly since the start of August)
1.Alabama Obama 38% McCain 58% Rasmussen July 31
1b.Alabama Obama 34% McCain 47% Capital Polling, July 29-31

2.Arizona Obama 38% McCain 57% Rasmussen July 30
2b Arizona Obama 40% McCain 52% Public Policy Polling July 30-31

3.Colorado Obama 48% McCain 44% Public Policy Polling Aug 5-10
3b.Colorado Obama 48% McCain 49% Rasmussen Aug 13

4.Connecticut Obama 51% McCain 36% Rasmussen July 31

5.Florida Obama 44% McCain 50% Survey U.S.A Aug 1-3
5b.Florida Obama 44% McCain 47% Public Policy Polling July 30-Aug 2
5c.Florida Obama44% McCain 48% Insider Advantage Aug 11

6.Iowa Obama 49% McCain 44% Rasmussen Aug 7

7.Kansas Obama 41% McCain 55% Rasmussen Aug 11

8.Kentucky Obama 37% McCain 55% Survey U.S.A Aug 9-11

9.Maine Obama 53% McCain 39% Rasmussen Aug 12

10.Massachusetts Obama 54% McCain 38% Rasmussen Aug 5
10b.Massachusetts Obama 47% McCain 38% Suffolk University July 31-Aug 31

11.Michigan Obama 49% McCain 45% Rasmussen Aug 7

12.Minnesota Obama 49% McCain 45% Rasmussen Aug 13

13.Missouri Obama 44% McCain 50% Rasmussen Aug 7

14.Nevada Obama 45% McCain 48% Rasmussen Aug 11

15.New Jersey Obama 52% McCain 42% Rasmussen Aug 4
15b. New Jersey Obama 51% McCain 41% Quinnipiac Aug 4-10

16.New York Obama 55% McCain 36% Rasmussen Aug 4

17.North Carolina Obama 45% McCain 49% Survey U.S.A Aug 9-11
17b.North Carolina Obama 44% McCain 50% Rasmussen Aug 13

18.Oregon Obama 48% McCain 45% Survey U.S.A Aug 2-4
18b.Oregon Obama 52% McCain 42% Rasmussen Aug 7

19.Pennsylvania Obama 46% McCain 41% Franklin and Marshall Aug 4-10

20.Virginia Obama 47% McCain 48% Survey U.S.A Aug 8-10
20b.Virginia Obama 47% McCain 48% Rasmussen Aug 12

21.Washington Obama 54% McCain 42% Rasmussen Aug 6
21b.Washington Obama 51% McCain 44% Survey U.S.A Aug 11-12

22.Wisconsin Obama 51% McCain 44% Rasmussen Aug 5
22b. Wisconsin Obama 44% McCain 38% Wisconsin Policy Research Institute Aug 3-4
22c. Wisconsin Obama 47% McCain 42% Strategic Vision Aug 8-10

Senate Polls
Republicans mentioned first
1.Alabama Jeff Sessions 58% Vivian Davis Figures 31% Rasmussen July 31

2.Alaska Ted Stevens 37% Mark Begich 50% Rasmussen July 30
2b.Alaska Ted Stevens 35% Mark Begich 56% Ivan Moore Polling July 30-31
2c.Alaska Ted Stevens 39% Mark Begich 56% Ivan Moore Polling Aug 9-12

3.Colorado Bob Schaffer 41% Mark Udall 47% Public Policy Polling Aug 5-7
3b.Colorado Bob Schaffer 42% Mark Udall 50% Ramussen Aug 13
3c.Colorado Bob Schaffer 38% Mark Udall 44% Rocky Mountain News Aug 11-13

4.Idaho Jim Risch 42% Larry LaRocco 32% Rex Rammell 5% Research 2000 July 28-30

5.Iowa Christopher Reed 36% Tom Harkin 60% Rasmussen Aug 7

6.Kansas Pat Roberts 56% Jim Slattery 37% Rasmussen Aug 11

7.Kentucky Mitch McConnell 49% Bruce Lunsford 38% Research 2000 July 28-30
7b.Kentucky Mitch McConnell 52% Bruce Lunsford 40% Survey U.S.A Aug 9-11

8.Maine Susan Collins 55% Tom Allen 40% Ramsussen Aug 12

9.Massachusetts Jeff Beatty 32% John Kerry 59% Rasmussen Aug 5

10.Michigan Jack Hoogendyk 35% Carl Levin 54% Public Policy Polling July 23-27
10b.Michigan Jack Hoogendyk 39% Carl Levin 57% Rasmussen Aug 7

11.Minnesota Norm Coleman 49% Al Franken 46% Rasmussen Aug 13

12.Mississippi Roger Wicker 52% Ronnie Musgrove 43% Rasmussen July 28

13.Nebraska Mike Johanns 60% Scott Kleeb 34% Rasmussen July 28

14.New Jersey Dick Zimmer 38% Frank Lautenberg 53% Rasmussen Aug 4
14b.New Jersey Dick Zimmer 41% Frank Lautenberg 48% Quinnipiac Aug 4-10

15.North Carolina Elizabeth Dole 49% Kay Hagen 40% Public Policy Polling July 23-27
15b.North Carolina Elizabeth Dole 50% Kay Hagen 42% Research 2000 July 28-30
15c.North Carolina Elizabeth Dole 46% Kay Hagen 41% Survey U.S.A Aug 9-11

16.Oklahoma James Inhofe 52% Andrew Rice 30% University of Oklahoma, dates of polling not given

17.Oregon, Gordon Smith 49% Jeff Merkley 37% Survey U.S.A Aug 2-4
17b.Oregon Gordon Smith 50% Jeff Merkley 44% Rasmussen Aug 7

18.Texas John Cornyn 50% Rick Noreiga 39% Rasmussen July 30

19.Virginia Jim Gilmore 34% Mark Warner 58% Survey U.S.A Aug 8-10
19b.Jim Gilmore 35% Mark Warner 61% Rasmussen Aug 12

Rasmussen poll results include 'leaners'

[ 15 August 2008: Message edited by: Adam T ]


From: Richmond B.C | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
Adam T
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posted 08 August 2008 10:11 PM      Profile for Adam T     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Updated presidential polls with Michigan, Missouri and Wisconsin.
From: Richmond B.C | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
skarredmunkey
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posted 08 August 2008 10:28 PM      Profile for skarredmunkey     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Also, two big poll aggregators:

Pollster.com

CNN Election Centre


From: Vancouver Centre | Registered: Nov 2005  |  IP: Logged
Adam T
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posted 08 August 2008 10:44 PM      Profile for Adam T     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Mine is better

It's all the state polls since the start of the month in one place.


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Policywonk
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posted 08 August 2008 10:51 PM      Profile for Policywonk     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
You haven't given a link though.
From: Edmonton | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Adam T
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posted 08 August 2008 11:07 PM      Profile for Adam T     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Who needs a link when I'm giving you the numbers?

You can easily google Survey USA and Rasmussen if you feel a need, not sure about Research 2000 or any of the others.

I think if you google 'angus reid global monitor' (under that name, not Ipsos Reid) you can also get most of these polls.

[ 08 August 2008: Message edited by: Adam T ]


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Doug
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posted 08 August 2008 11:18 PM      Profile for Doug   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
538 is rather impressive.
From: Toronto, Canada | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
skarredmunkey
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posted 09 August 2008 11:33 AM      Profile for skarredmunkey     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
It's all the state polls since the start of the month in one place.

Did you check the links?

It's all the state polls since the polling even started, for all the major polling groups, also all in one place.

It also shows trends over time using line diagrams if you click on individual states.

Interesting because it shows how in a Republican state like Virginia, McCain's support has been in secular decline ever since last year, and Obama is now ahead. And, how Obama is starting to lose support in Democratic or Democratic leaning states like Oregon and Nevada.


From: Vancouver Centre | Registered: Nov 2005  |  IP: Logged
Adam T
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posted 09 August 2008 05:06 PM      Profile for Adam T     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Did you check the links?

It's all the state polls since the polling even started, for all the major polling groups, also all in one place.


Not so! In all of those sites you have to click on the states to get the polls. Mine is the only place I know where you can scan down and compare the polling in each state with one glance. The effect is entirely different.


From: Richmond B.C | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
skarredmunkey
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posted 09 August 2008 08:11 PM      Profile for skarredmunkey     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
No kidding.
From: Vancouver Centre | Registered: Nov 2005  |  IP: Logged
Policywonk
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posted 09 August 2008 09:14 PM      Profile for Policywonk     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Who needs a link when I'm giving you the numbers?

Most if not all of these are at
RealClearPolitics


From: Edmonton | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Adam T
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posted 12 August 2008 05:26 AM      Profile for Adam T     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Updated presidential polls with Colorado, Iowa, Oregon and Virginia.

Updated Senate polls with Michigan, Iowa, Oregon, Virginia, Colorado and New Jersey.


From: Richmond B.C | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
BetterRed
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posted 12 August 2008 08:14 AM      Profile for BetterRed     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I read polls sometimes at wikipedia or dailykos.
You post there at kos too, right Adam?
Anyway the chart emphasizes the important races. IMO, the Dems could pick up 6 seats, but it would be difficult. 9 out of 23 Rethug seats are in the South, their stronghold.

In other news, here's the first clue of Obama's effect on Black voters, which could be vital in November:

quote:

Black voter registration swells since '04
Voter registration is growing at a faster rate in the black community than it is among white North Carolinians.
According to data reported Aug. 2 by the State Board of Elections, there are 1,224,545 black registered voters, compared with 1,114,798 on Election Day in 2004. That's an increase of 109,747, or 9.8 percent.

Meantime, there are 4,421,919 white registered voters, compared to 4,226,473 on Election Day in 2004. That's an increase of 195,446, or 4.6 percent.

Those numbers put black voters at 20 percent of the electorate and white voters at 75 percent, roughly where they were in 2004.

Black voters' share of the electorate is a little below the 23 percent threshold that some say Barack Obama would need to win North Carolina, on the basis of current polls.



Its possible that many of these voters registered not really because of Obama, but because of general desire to change the government.

From: They change the course of history, everyday ppl like you and me | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
Adam T
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posted 12 August 2008 07:59 PM      Profile for Adam T     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Yes, I post occassionaly on dailykos under the same nick.

New Senate and presidential polls today in Kentucky and North Carolina.


From: Richmond B.C | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
Adam T
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posted 13 August 2008 05:44 PM      Profile for Adam T     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
New presidential polls for Florida, Kansas, Nevada, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Washington

New Senate poll for Kansas

[ 13 August 2008: Message edited by: Adam T ]


From: Richmond B.C | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
Adam T
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posted 15 August 2008 08:19 PM      Profile for Adam T     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
New Presidential polls for Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, North Carolina and Wisconsin.

New Senate polls for Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, Maine and Alaska.

In addition to flipping Iowa and New Mexico which went for Gore in 2000 but Dumbya in 2004, I'd say the states that Obama is trying to flip to the Democratic column are 1.Alaska, 2.Colorado, 3.Florida, 4.Georgia, 5.Indiana, 6.Mississippi, 7.Missouri, 8.Montana, 9.Nevada, 10.North Carolina, 11.North Dakota 12.Ohio, and 13.Virginia.

McCain is likely to go for the following states that went for Kerry in 2004: 1.Maine, 2.Michigan, 3.Minnesota, 4.New Hampshire, 5.New Jersey, 6.Oregon, 7.Pennslyvania, 8.Washington, 9.Wisconsin.

The Democrats are trying to get from 51 seats in the Senate to at least 60. They are leading in 5 seats presently held by the Republicans: 1.Alaska, 2.Colorado, 3.New Hampshire, 4.New Mexico, 5.Virginia.

They need 4 of these other 9 possibles to get to 60 (assuming they win those 5): 1.Georgia, 2.Idaho 3.Kentucky, 4.Maine, 5.Minnesota, 6.Mississippi, 7.North Carolina, 8.Oregon and 9.Texas.

The Republicans have a shot in only 2 Senate seats held by Democrats: 1.Louisiana, 2.New Jersey.

[ 15 August 2008: Message edited by: Adam T ]


From: Richmond B.C | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
BetterRed
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posted 15 August 2008 08:43 PM      Profile for BetterRed     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
It was noted on dailykos that only Rasmussen shows consistently higher results for Franken.

Other polling companies have Coleman reasonably ahead.


From: They change the course of history, everyday ppl like you and me | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
Adam T
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posted 15 August 2008 09:30 PM      Profile for Adam T     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
True, but there hasn't been another poll on Minnesota in almost a month, so it's hard to know.
From: Richmond B.C | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged

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