quote:
LONDON–When he ascended to power six weeks ago, dour, dependable Gordon Brown inspired few predictions of longevity as British prime minister.Regarded by consensus as a man of serious political gravitas, Tony Blair's long-time deputy was seen also as suffering from an acute charisma deficit, a shortcoming that could well spell the end for a New Labour government widely viewed as approaching its best-before date after a decade in power.
Fast-forward through a succession of three crises – foiled terror attacks, flooding and a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak that now is in abeyance – and it appears an unflashy but reassuring prime minister of comparably few words is precisely what suits Britain today.
Hailed for his calm, unflappable stewardship through the episodes of terror, water and cattle plague – and for the deft and delicate distance he has built between himself and the beleaguered Bush administration – Brown's poll ratings now have lifted Labour to its biggest numbers since before the Iraq war.
A weekend survey undertaken for the Sunday Times placed Labour at 42 per cent, with the Conservatives dropping to 32 per cent amid bickering over David Cameron's leadership of the main opposition party.
The reversal of political fortunes could translate into as much as a 100-seat increase in Labour's majority government if an election were held today. Predictably, Labour party strategists now are agonizing over whether the moment is right to call such a vote for the fall in order to consolidate Brown's gains into a fresh mandate.
Famed for his cautious political instincts, Brown has reportedly told party insiders he favours a later vote because he wants enough time to show he can deliver on big issues such as housing and public services.
A month ago, Brown's advisers were talking about a spring 2009 election. Last week, the talk was of spring 2008. Yesterday, in the wake of the latest surveys suggesting public approval of Brown is deeper than the "honeymoon bounce" of a newly anointed prime minister, talk of a possible October election was endemic, with one London bookmaker slashing the odds of a snap autumn vote from 16-1 to 3-1.
"I certainly think these opinion polls are making it more and more likely that this autumn is coming into the frame," former Labour transport minister Stephen Ladyman said yesterday in an interview with BBC Radio. He said a shortfall in Labour's election war chest made a later vote more likely, but added that the timing will depend also on the reaction of the other political parties.
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posted 23 August 2007 11:18 AM
