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Après répartition proportionnelle des 12 % d'indécis, les conservateurs se retrouvent avec 41 % des appuis, les libéraux 27 %, le NPD 12 % et le Parti vert 5 %.

Au Québec, le Bloc québécois obtient 36 %, comparativement à 26 % pour les conservateurs, 25 % pour les libéraux et 10 % pour le NPD. Ces données sont toutefois moins fiables puisque l'échantillon n'est que de 353 personnes.

D'après Anne-Marie Marois, de Léger Marketing, c'est la première fois que les conservateurs franchissent la barre des 40 % dans le cadre du Baromètre électoral fédéral, qui est réalisé tous les mois.

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[ 29 March 2007: Message edited by: rasmus ]

As much as this makes me sick ... in the end its for the best....

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The latest poll, from Leger Marketing, put the Conservatives at 41 per cent support. The level generally considered needed to produce a majority is 40 per cent.

The Leger poll, released to The Canadian Press, put the Liberals at 27 per cent support and the NDP at 14 per cent. Bloc support was at nine per cent and the Greens at six per cent.

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http://legermarketing.com/documents/pol/070329ENG.pdf

Basically the Conservatives are gaining some ground from all the parties, but the Liberals are being hit particularly hard in BC and in Ontario.

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Originally posted by Stockholm:

Basically the Conservatives are gaining some ground from all the parties, but the Liberals are being hit particularly hard in BC and in Ontario.

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The Mustel Group released the polling results for BC today (federal):

Con: 40% (+6)
Lib: 29% (-6)
NDP: 20% (-3)
Grn: 9% (+2)

Sample Size: 750; Error Margin: 3.6%; Undecided: 15%;

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Originally posted by kropotkin1951:
So in BC both the change in the NDP and the Green party is less than the margin of error. Oh well polls are what they are.

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http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pages/pdfs/2007.03.29%20Pol%20Package.pdf

It's an online poll - but then again, the Angus Reid on-line poll was the most accurate in the Quebec election.

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Originally posted by Stockholm:
Or, maybe there is no "ballot box bump" when you poll on-line?

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True enough, the NDP and the Liberals did not come from the same original party. However the effect of the vote-splitting is the same. The big party (in this case the Conservatives) will be able to rack up a big majority of seats without even having a 'mandate' (if you define a 'mandate' as 40%+).

I am not necessarily saying this should happen, but in the days of Mackenzie King, the Liberals did deals with the Progressives to win power. It revitalized the Liberal Party at the time. Liberals these days will talk about the need for party renewal.

Some of us will do just fine under a Tory government. We will get to keep (or spend) more of our own money, and business opportunities will probably increase. The Liberals offer an alternative. If the people want it, fine. If not, oh well. Perhaps there are better things to do.

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True enough, the NDP and the Liberals did not come from the same original party. However the effect of the vote-splitting is the same. The big party (in this case the Conservatives) will be able to rack up a big majority of seats without even having a 'mandate' (if you define a 'mandate' as 40%+).

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Now, people are going to want to figure out how to beat the Tories. At least now the Greens, Liberals, and NDP agree we should have cap and trade on carbon emissions.

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Originally posted by Red Partisan:
At least now the Greens, Liberals, and NDP agree we should have cap and trade on carbon emissions.

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Originally posted by Red Partisan:
[QB]I am getting a strange sense of deja vu. The argument is that the two parties are like oil and water, voters are different, etc. Exactly the same thing was being said about the PCs and the Alliance before their merger. Yet they found it necessary to get together to beat the Liberals. As well, there was a lot of bad blood between those parties, as there is now between the Liberals and the NDP.

Now, people are going to want to figure out how to beat the Tories.
QB]

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I want to figure out how to beat the Tories and the Liberals. They are a common political enemy whose records in government have not embodied my values (unless under minority duress). This "my enemy's enemy is my friend" bullshit holds no water. I'm not a Liberal because a corporate party does not represent my interests. Because a party with no principles or values whatsoever can't be counted on to stand up for anything unless it happens to be in vogue politically on a given day. When deficit cutting is popular the corporate elites in the Liberal Party push that to be at the forefront of what it means to be a Liberal. When social attitudes are more conservative, so will the Liberals be (does anyone think if it weren't for new societal attitudes making it suddenly politically expedient and the pushing of the NDP on gay marriage the Liberals would ever have changed their minds on the issue so quickly and enacted the legislation?). When the mood of the country starts to move toward environmental issues suddenly the Liberals, despite their record, are an environmental party. No values. Not one. Except pursuit of power and using that power to reward their friends. I am not in common cause with any Liberal - I may want the Tories gone but I have no interest in replacing them with their slightly more maliable cousins in the Liberal Party.

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Originally posted by Red Partisan:
Starting to look like a mirror of the old days when Chretien managed to split the Tory and Reform vote, and win with 36%.

Looks like we are in for a long period of Tory government.

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