the guardian:

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Mr Kepel argues that jihad may be entering a new phase. The first was characterised by insurgencies in Muslim countries aimed at overthrowing pro-western "apostate" regimes - what al-Qaida's chief ideologue, Ayman al-Zawahiri, called the "nearby enemy".

Then, in the 90s, "Islamist militants turned to global terrorism to advance their agenda" - targeting the "faraway enemy". The Islamists' new focus in a third phase, Mr Kepel claims, is the Muslim minority populations of European countries.

"The most important battle in the war for Muslim minds during the next decade will be fought not in Palestine or Iraq but in communities of believers on the outskirts of London, Paris and other European cities," he writes.

The challenge for Europe is thus how best to integrate these Muslim populations. The terrorists' challenge is to find fresh converts to jihad. The Madrid bombings and the assassination of the Dutch film-maker, Theo van Gogh, fit this analysis. Radicalised longtime Muslim residents allegedly helped both attacks. In Spain, the bombings brought the government down. In the Netherlands, the reaction to Van Gogh's murder was all Bin Laden could have wished: retaliatory violence that has shaken liberal traditions of tolerance.

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I'm no expert, but just from following the news, it appears to me that the third phase already has come to Europe, that, in fact, small (?) populations of disaffected young men, many of them born and raised in Europe, have been festering in those suburbs for some time now.

It was my impression, though, that police and security services in Britain and Germany, especially, had a great deal of intelligence on the worrisome religious leaders and the worrisome cells -- they have moved very fast with arrests right after 9/11 and since. They seem to know what they face and how to face it.

Are the French, the Dutch, the Spanish just less well prepared? Are their unassimilated populations more complex or more problematic for some reason?

Still, the Londoners I know seem to accept, almost with a shrug, that there will be an incident there, sooner or later.

It's just the same old "blame the victim" mentality. But that kind of disingenuous spin is slowly losing it's lustre. More and more people are realizing that Islamofascism is an enemy that must be confronted and destroyed.

[ 18 November 2004: Message edited by: Frac Tal ]

one attempted way of engaging with moderate islam (in france, netherlands, britain) has been state training/education of a new generation of imams:

quote:

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The [British] government is considering "strengthening the hand" of moderate Muslim leaders, and refusing entry visas to foreign imams who cannot demonstrate a basic knowledge of English or of British society.

The idea follows similar proposals in France, Spain and the Netherlands.

In the Netherlands, officials are not always afraid to use the word "control" to describe their policies towards Muslims.

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but the problem is:

quote:

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The proposals in Britain and the Netherlands for state involvement in religious training have met a more guarded response.

"If they train imams they must train other religions too," says Palestinian-born Rotterdam Councillor Mohammed Abu Leil. "This motion will make imams [in the Netherlands] like the imams in our countries. They are only a loudspeaker for the government."

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more generally, at least in britain, you have:

a high level of unemployment:

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The social and economic disadvantage of British Muslims emerged yesterday in an analysis by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) of the religious dimension of the 2001 census. It found Muslims had the highest rate of unemployment, the poorest health, the most disability and fewest educational qualifications. In most respects Muslim women fared worse than Muslim men. In 2003/4 Muslims had the highest unemployment rate. Among men it was 14%, compared with 4% among Christians. For women it was 15%, almost four times the rate among Christians. Muslims aged 16 to 24 had the highest unemployment rates of all at 22%, compared with an average for Christians of 11%.

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over-crowding in housing,

and anti-terror laws targeting muslims when the folks being convicted are non-muslim.

[ 18 November 2004: Message edited by: Willowdale Wizard ]

I'm glad you did bring up the systemic discrimination against "Muslims" (in quotes because I'm referring to those PRESUMED to be Muslim, whether or not they actually believe in that or any faith) and other non-Europeans as a feeding ground for the development of violent Islamic fundamentalist movements.

The development of such movements is, however, a reactionary trend in the immigrant communities. I'm most familiar with the situation in France, having lived there. I think the semi-failure of earlier movements by second-generation immigrants (la "marche des Beurs", "Touche pas à mon pote" and similar movements), secular and progressive in nature, is part of the explanation. So is the more generalised wave of defeats and regression of working class and social movements from the 1980s on.

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Willowdale, aren't bombings that kill people (Madrid, the WTC, in the Paris métro a few years back) also murders?

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yes, lagatta, killing 3000 people in new york was murder.

The author of this report hopes to achieve what, by expressing this idea? It's seems very well that this kind of thing is excelent grist for the facist mill, whatever its conclusion. How easily this could be turned into the 'enmy within' paranoia, that leads to holocaust.

It is an excelent sprinboard for Frac-tal's fear mongering.

Why are the indemic problems of inner-city youth gangs being projected into the frame of an international Islamic Jihad, complete with phases. Phases as if there is a plan.

[ 21 November 2004: Message edited by: Cueball ]

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"I know definitely that you, Oh America, will go down. I know definitely that you, Oh Europe, will go down. I know definitely that you, Oh Netherlands, will go down. I know definitely that you, Oh Hirsi Ali, will go down," it said.

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quote:

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The five-page letter released Thursday night by the justice minister forced political leaders — including Amsterdam's Jewish mayor and members of parliament — to take on bodyguards.

The document, stuck to the body of filmmaker Theo van Gogh, was titled "An open Letter to (Aayan) Hirsi Ali," referring to a Somali-born member of parliament. She had scripted van Gogh's latest film, "Submission," which criticized the treatment of women under Islam and also showed actresses in see-through garments portraying Muslim women.

The letter, in Dutch and Arabic, predicts the downfall of the "infidel enemies of Islam" in Europe, including the Netherlands, and the United States.

Hirsi Ali, who calls herself an ex-Muslim, has gone into hiding.

Deputy Prime Minister Gerrit Zalm called van Gogh's murder a declaration of Islamic holy war.

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If these Islamofascist bastard scum get their way, women everywhere will be going into hiding.

Give me half an hour and I can find the ravings any number of dangerous lunatics. I can't tell which is worse the ravings of the madmen, or those who invest those ravings, with credibility by investing them into their own tangled paranoia fantasies -- meaning you.

quote:

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Originally posted by Willowdale Wizard:
do people agree? what relevance is there for canada? are people forgetting the madrid bombings too quickly?

the guardian:

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the terror event simply emphasised the stupidity of that, and didn't affect the vote

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that's simply not true.

polls indicated that the pp (aznar) was leading the socialists (zapatero) by about 5% and 30 parliamentary seats the week before the election. it was the immediate and opportunistic blaming of the terror atrocites on ETA that seemed to swing the election.

quote:

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The author of this report hopes to achieve what, by expressing this idea? It's seems very well that this kind of thing is excelent grist for the facist mill, whatever its conclusion. How easily this could be turned into the 'enmy within' paranoia, that leads to holocaust.

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quote:

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British Muslims feel disconnected from government and society to an alarming degree, research has revealed.

In a survey examining the relationship between British citizenship and adherence to Islam, more than half the 1,125 Muslims questioned said they felt the government did not respect British Muslims. Some 57% also disagreed with the proposition that British society respects British Muslims. Only 8% agreed.

The researchers said those interviewed felt continuously perceived as "suspicious", "alien" and "foreign" and this barred their recognition as equal members of society, but 80% saw no contradiction between being a good British citizen and a practising Muslim.

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quote:

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that there was pre-existing islamophobia as a "simmering" problem that was waiting for a trigger. look at pim fortuyn being named "greatest dutchman" in one of these TV polls ...

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that the author of the article focuses on this "first, second and third phase", but he doesn't focus on the western-society-reflection of those phases.

i.e. western support for corrupt regimes in the middle east (the first phase), western support for a "war on terror" approach to confronting the second phase,

quote:

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Originally posted by Cueball:
Polls at 5%, are well within the margin of error. The impact of a terror attack splits both ways, I think. I don't think you can say for sure it cost Anzar the election.

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Well, the thing is that Aznar tried to spin it as being Basque separatists and was almost instantly caught in a lie.
So, it's hard to say just what direction the attacks themselves might have pushed the election, but the realization that Aznar was a lying scoundrel who was lying about major national security issues for political gain, we can probably figure the direction of impact.