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Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador launched a parallel government Monday and prepared to swear himself in as Mexico's "legitimate" president, a ceremony the leftist hopes will keep alive protests to undermine the man who officials say defeated him at the polls.

The inauguration ceremony is the latest chapter in Lopez Obrador's unsuccessful battle for the presidency.

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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061120/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/mexico_dual_presidents

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Based in Mexico City, Lopez Obrador's parallel government has its own Cabinet, but it will not collect taxes or make laws and relies on donations to carry out its plans.

One of its first orders of business will be trying to prevent Calderon's Dec. 1 inauguration.

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El gobierno legítimo tendrá como sostén al pueblo organizado, define Andrés Manuel López Obrador y se declara optimista porque, asegura, este 20 de noviembre, aniversario de la Revolución Mexicana, su movimiento de protesta y rebeldía contra el fraude electoral del 2 de julio entra a otra etapa, con miras a la conformación de una nueva República.

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The legitimate government will have the organized people as its means of support, says A.M. Lopez Obrador, and declares himself an optimist because he assures us that November 20th, the anniversary of the Mexican Revolution, his movement against the electoral fraud of July 2 will enter another level, with the perspective of creating a new Republic.

1) make him less popular among the 65% of people who didn't vote for him, and possibly among some of the 35% who did.
2) open up the risk of civil unrest or civil war (I think Obrador is a little more responsible than that but...)
3) The minute he actually could gain the presidency, open up the risk of American intervention.

I think his actions are actually going to DECREASE the odds of a left-wing government being sworn into Mexico within the decade.

[ 22 November 2006: Message edited by: West Coast Greeny ]

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Aw, geez. I don't think Obrador actually won the election in the first place. The gap is still too wide to say that the intermittent fraud that did occur would have definately, or even probably, been the difference between winning and losing the election. Yes, there should have been a nationwide recount. But, no, I don't think Obrador has any current legitmate claim to the presidency. His continued actions are only going to

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This sounds familiar to me, so I'll make a prediction.
AMLO will appeal to Russia and China and their PAC's to defend the Mexican democracy. Both countries would agree that the fraud took place, and will explicitly blame US for its open support of Calderon.
As Russian and Chinese press keeps spewing rhethoric about Mexico being re-conquered by its imperial masters, their governments would keep the pressure on Calderon to hold 3rd round (sic) of Presidential elections. Buoyed AMLO supporters would continue camping enmasse on Zocalo square for weeks. They proclaim their movement to be"the tortilla revolution".

In the meantime, AMLO would be nearly poisoned in a restaurant. Russian media would immediately blame the CIA - "they've been doing it in Latin America for ages".

European and Chinese media would constantly bring in sympathetic reports from the AMLO camp.
Eventually, Calderon would agree to 3rd round of elections, and under watchful eye of EU and Russian observers, AMLO would win.

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Originally posted by BetterRed:

This sounds familiar to me, so I'll make a prediction.
AMLO will appeal to Russia and China and their PAC's to defend the Mexican democracy. Both countries would agree that the fraud took place, and will explicitly blame US for its open support of Calderon.
As Russian and Chinese press keeps spewing rhethoric about Mexico being re-conquered by its imperial masters, their governments would keep the pressure on Calderon to hold 3rd round (sic) of Presidential elections. Buoyed AMLO supporters would continue camping enmasse on Zocalo square for weeks. They proclaim their movement to be"the tortilla revolution".

In the meantime, AMLO would be nearly poisoned in a restaurant. Russian media would immediately blame the CIA - "they've been doing it in Latin America for ages".

European and Chinese media would constantly bring in sympathetic reports from the AMLO camp.
Eventually, Calderon would agree to 3rd round of elections, and under watchful eye of EU and Russian observers, AMLO would win.

Ah yes, I forgot about the double standards

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I'm not trying to set a double standard. I'm aware of what would have happened if the left won by such a margin.

[ 23 November 2006: Message edited by: West Coast Greeny ]

(Canada and George Bush both congratulated Calderon before the Mexican Electoral Commission actually made any decision on the results)

http://dominionpaper.ca/canadian_news/2006/07/10/harper_con.html

For Mexicans, though, this election is seen in the shadow of the 1988 election, which was stolen from the candidate of the democratic left in a particularly crude way. (He was well ahead; the "computers broke" and then it was announced that he had lost.)

The real winner in 1988, Cuatemoc Cardenas, meekly decided not to contest that result in any way, saying that "there will be another time."

Would violent conflict be better than corrupt stability?

[ 24 November 2006: Message edited by: Farmpunk ]