quote:
Originally posted by kurichina:
Getting the turnout rates may also fill in some of the blanks.
That's what surprised me the most. I thought the turnout would drop as disillusioned SPD voters stayed home. As it says here, the turnout went UP from 56.7% to 63.0%.
OK, here's a theory, supported (unlike some theories) by actual numbers. The actual SPD vote (not their percentage) dropped by only a measly 84,105, compared to the increase for the left-socialists of 174,934. The voters list went up by 177,905, of whom perhaps 105,000 would have been expected to vote, about 46,000 of them for the left. The Green vote dropped 9,076. That makes about 140,000 voters freed up for the left-socialists. So they got about 35,000 votes extra, from the higher turnout.
So the real story seems to be the previously discouraged CDU voters -- it's decades since the CDU had a chance there -- turning out in droves.
The counter-intuitive conclusion: the left actually did fine. However, the perception and expectation that they would do badly fueled the hopes of the CDU supporters, and prompted them to vote in record numbers, putting them in government.
If I'm right, it re-enforces a long-standing belief of mine: that elections aren't mostly about the rare vote-switchers, but are really about turnout; losing parties' voters staying home, winning parties' voters turning out. Amateur statisticians with their "vote swings" usually fail to track the actual voters. 
Edited to add: Ich spreche nur ein bisschen Deutsch. Zwei yahre im schule (11 & 12). Aber ich genieße Übersetzungen Googles. 
[ 25 May 2005: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]
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posted 23 May 2005 01:27 AM
