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Author Topic: Irish election results
robbie_dee
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posted 27 May 2007 05:30 AM      Profile for robbie_dee     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Final Irish election results:

Fianna Fail 78; Fine Gael 51; Labour 20; Green 6; Sinn Fein 4; and Others 5.

"Ball in 78-seat Fianna Fail's court as counting finishes," Belfast Telegraph, May 27, 2007.

Thoughts?


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Wilf Day
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posted 27 May 2007 07:15 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Bertie Ahern is still claiming he'd prefer to make a deal with Tony Gregory, Finian McGrath, Jackie Healy-Rae and Beverley Cooper-Flynn. Which gives him a one-seat majority. But yesterday he said he wanted a stable five-year agreement.

So that still looks like a FF/Green/PD coalition to me.

As previously discussed here. But I think we're past talking about how STV works, so this is a good thread to continue.

Since Finian McGrath and Tony Gregory are clearly left-wing, in many ways further left than Labour, Ahern has to face facts: the right wing has only 82 of the 166 seats.

Could he tempt Michael Lowry to abandon the Fine Gael folks who threw him out? Even so, that's only 83 seats.

This is actually a classic "pizza parliament:" the 4 seats held by Sinn Fein, whom neither FF nor FG will even talk to, hold the balance of power.

The last time something like this happened was 1981 and 1982. The parliament elected in 1981 lasted seven months:

quote:
78 were won by Fianna Fáil (including the outgoing Speaker), 65 by Fine Gael in a dramatic increase, 15 by Labour, two by IRA prisoners in Northern Ireland (one of whom was on hunger-strike and died a few weeks after), one by Sinn Fein the Workers Party, as the former "official wing" of Sinn Fein was now called, and five by independents (including Noel Browne who, as a young socialist 33 years earlier, had helped found a new left party; and Neil Blaney, who had resigned from Lynch's cabinet as a result of the 1970 Arms Crisis). Fine Gael and Labour had gone into the election on a coalition ticket, and formed a minority government under Garret Fitzgerald as Taoiseach. The precarious parliamentary arithmetic brought another election soon.

And when the new Dáil assembled in March 1982, Tony Gregory held the balance of power.

Gregory had 1st run for the Dáil in 1981 as a Community candidate for Dublin inner city, and represented the many local Community organisations that sprang up around Dublin during this period. Think of Dublin's John Sewell.

Gregory voted for Fianna Fail's Haughey as Taoiseach, returning FF to power. The cost of his support was then revealed when Gregory announced the cost to the country of this bout of auction politics. Gregory's ‘shopping list' was a detailed 30-page document, which outlined a raft of provisions Haughey promised for Gregory's constituency. The ‘Gregory Deal' was to cost £80m in 1982 alone; the total cost was estimated to be around £150m, a remarkable amount of money at a time when severe cutbacks were required to address the country's growing budget deficit problem. The policy concessions were mainly ‘pork' which involved a change of policy in relation to urban regeneration. For example, the massive 27-acre Port and Docks Board site, which was to have been used for offices, was now to be divided between houses, offices, and recreation space. £91m was to be given to Dublin Corporation that year to construct 3,000 new houses. The maintenance budget for Dublin Corporation housing, which had been cut from £7.5 to £2.7m that year, was increased to £10m. The deal included a wide range of further largesse, and yet no details were provided of where the money was going to come from.

This threatened to have a detrimental effect on national economic policy, since the country's borrowing capacity was threatened by reckless promises of profligate spending like the Gregory Deal. The country's national economic policy was saved in the end when the government collapsed before the end of the year, thus leaving much of the Gregory Deal unimplemented. The second 1982 election followed, the third in 17 months.

When Fine Gael and Labour formed a majority government, the country's first after 3 elections, they scrapped many of the policy provisions promised to Gregory; one such example was an environment public works scheme which had employed 500 men in Dublin's inner city.

After 25 years, Tony Gregory is still there, and has a share in the balance of power once again. Will we see the second Gregory Deal?

The Greens may be cheaper.

[ 27 May 2007: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]


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Ken Burch
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posted 27 May 2007 07:51 AM      Profile for Ken Burch     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Sinn Fein were expected to do a lot better, but just held their ground. I saw their Party Political Broadcast on the RTE site, and I wasn't entirely surprised. It was just Gerry Adams sitting at a table talking about policy.
The guy isn't exactly universally loveable, and he wasn't even standing in this election, so what exactly were they thinking?

If SF is to do better in the South, it needs a distinct 26 Counties presence.

The Left didn't do that well in the election, with the Socialist party leader, Joe Higgins, losing his party's only seat. On the bright side, other than Gregory, there were a few other left wing independents elected, the Greens gained two seats, and the People Before Profit party candidate in one Dublin seat took over 5,000 first preference votes(which is quite good for a new party).

Labour will probably need a new leader, as they gained no seats while campaigning on one of their more conservative programs in recent memory and they gained no real benefit from their coalition arrangement with Fine Gael.

The weird thing here is, other than their roots as descendants of opposing factions in the Treaty fight of the 1920's, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have virtually no real differences between each other on actual policy. It's kind of surprising that they haven't done the logical thing and merged yet. I supposed it's down to that old Celtic stubbornness(a disease of which I partly share).


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Wilf Day
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posted 27 May 2007 08:17 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Ken Burch:
Labour will probably need a new leader, as they gained no seats while campaigning on one of their more conservative programs in recent memory and they gained no real benefit from their coalition arrangement with Fine Gael.

The odd thing is, Pat Rabbitte is from the Left. The old Workers' Party (son of official Sinn Fein, ex-Marxist) renamed itself Democratic Left and then merged with Labour, and Rabbitte was a DL man.

In 1994 Bertie Ahern could have made a deal with DL and Labour. He didn't. The FG/Labour/DL government included Pat Rabbitte as Minister of State at Dept. of Enterprise and Employment, and Liz McManus from DL, who is still around as Rabbitte's deputy leader. So these people have all seen this movie before.

quote:
Originally posted by Ken Burch:
The Left didn't do that well in the election, with the Socialist party leader, Joe Higgins, losing his party's only seat. On the bright side, other than Gregory, there were a few other left wing independents elected.

One: Finian McGrath.
quote:
Originally posted by Ken Burch:
the Greens gained two seats

No, they still have six. They lost one man, and replaced him with one woman, the first woman Green elected to the Dail.
quote:
Originally posted by Ken Burch:
the People Before Profit party candidate in one Dublin seat took over 5,000 first preference votes (which is quite good for a new party).

A remarkable performance, but it's not a new party, it's a new label for the Socialist Workers' Party.
quote:
Originally posted by Ken Burch:
The weird thing here is, other than their roots as descendants of opposing factions in the Treaty fight of the 1920's, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have virtually no real differences between each other on actual policy.

But they have different tones of voice. FF still pretends to be fighting the English even after accepting FG's policy. FG still claims to have a centrist social conscience even though it's a bit hard to see.

[ 27 May 2007: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 27 May 2007 08:20 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Sounds just like the Liberals and Conservatives in Canada!
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Wilf Day
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posted 27 May 2007 08:49 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Tony Gregory raises his price:
quote:
Tony Gregory is predicting that the Labour party will "sell out" and go into coalition with Fianna Fail.

"Ahern knows the damage that he would do to the Labour Party if he got them to coalesce with them, so there's everything to gain for Fianna Fail by bringing Labour on board at this stage," he mused.



In other words: It would damage Tony Gregory if he sold out too cheap.

"A very interesting next two-and-a-half weeks before the Dail meets" predicted the commentator on the RTE News a minute ago.

No kidding.

Under the heading 78 + 6, RTE told me "get a 2nd chance to watch the campaign's most talked-about Political Party Broadcast." So I did. Click on Green Party PPB 'It's Time.'

Brilliant. Why don't we have long enough free-time telecasts in Canada to actually say something?

Pat Rabbitte reiterated his commitment to the Irish people that he would not lead the Labour party into government with Fianna Fáil at this time in history because he wanted to deliver change.

Pretty hard-line stance. Is he betting this Dail won't last five years?

[ 27 May 2007: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Ken Burch
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posted 27 May 2007 02:15 PM      Profile for Ken Burch     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
It's all in how you define "at this time". Ask him again Monday, things could be different.

A FF-Labour coalition is not unprecedented(in fact, I think that was what De Valera's first minority government was, back in '32).

Still, Ahern would naturally prefer the smallest coalition partner possible.

BTW, Wilf, would you say that this election means that, so long as the economy looks half-decent, Bertie will NEVER get the boot?


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Wilf Day
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posted 27 May 2007 03:02 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Ken Burch:
A FF-Labour coalition is not unprecedented(in fact, I think that was what De Valera's first minority government was, back in '32).

But that was a minority with Labour support, not a coalition. In 1933 de Valera formed a Fianna Fáil government with a one-seat majority with Labour support (eventually winning enough by-elections to do without). In 1937 de Valera again formed a Fianna Fáil government (this time with exactly half the seats) with Labour support, and again called an early election within a year.

But ever since the rainbow coalition government in 1948, Labour's only partner has been Fine Gael, except for the single example in Irish history of a Fianna Fail-Labour coalition: 1992 to 1994, a bit of a disaster for Labour, even though they managed to engineer a change of partners halfway though the term.

quote:
Originally posted by Ken Burch:
BTW, Wilf, would you say that this election means that, so long as the economy looks half-decent, Bertie will NEVER get the boot?

Never is a long time, especially in Ireland.

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Stockholm
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posted 27 May 2007 03:33 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
If there is absolutely ZERO ideological difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael - why would it be so taboo for Labour to form a coalition with FF and yet it is routine for them to work with FG?
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Ken Burch
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posted 27 May 2007 04:47 PM      Profile for Ken Burch     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Probably because FF has been the "In" party for so much of the time. FG, were it ever to have been able to govern on its own, would most likely have been the Irish equivalent of the Tories. But, even though they were seen as somewhat to the right of FF and as having a more upper class base of support, FG has only been able to govern in tandem with Labour, the supposedly "social democratic" voice of Irish politics.

Maybe also because, as I understand it, FF has also been seen as the more corrupt of the two major parties(which could simply be the result of the fact that, as the "natural governing party", they've had greater opportunity FOR corruption than FG has in its occasional stints in office.


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Wilf Day
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posted 27 May 2007 11:51 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Independents' Day:
quote:
INDEPENDENT TDs are today drawing up their shopping lists as they wait for Taoiseach Bertie Ahern to approach them to form his third coalition government.

But Mr Ahern could move quickly to do a deal with the Greens if he thinks the price of achieving power with the Independents is too high.



What the independents are likely to demand in return for their vote:
quote:

Jackie's Jumble Sale: Jackie Healy-Rae
HSE land at St Finian's Hospital to be given to voluntary groups; upgrade of the Killarney to Rathmore road; completion of the main road to Cork; Castleisland bypass; Breastcheck; extension to Kenmare Hospital; and a new community hospital in Dingle.

Buyer Beware: At 76, there are concerns about his health.

Bev's Bonanza: Beverley Flynn
Investment in infrastructure in the BMW region to reverse the previous underspend; Western Rail Corridor; upgrade of the main road from Castlebar, and roads from Belmullet, Ballina and Westport; rollout of Breastcheck to the West; and pension rights for women separate to their husbands pensions.

Buyer Beware: Facing possible bankruptcy from failed RTE libel action.

Gregory's Deal II: Tony Gregory
Social and affordable housing provision, tackling educational disadvantage in inner-city areas; more gardai on the streets to target anti-social behaviour; clamping down on drug pushers in communities; improvements in health services; and renewed focus on the National Drugs Strategy.

Buyer Beware: The last Gregory deal didn't last because the Government collapsed.

Finian's Rainbow: Finian McGrath
Services for autistic children and their parents; cystic fibrosis services; no infill on 52 acres in Dublin Bay; day care and respite care provision; services for children and adults with physical disabilities; class size reduction; pre-school investment; school funding in disadvantaged areas; CRC services for the physically disabled in Coolock; and a community centre in the Kilmore area.

Buyer Beware: Would be target of interest groups from his campaigning work.

Lowry's List: Michael Lowry
Bypass for Thurles; commuter train service from Nenagh to Limerick and Ballybrophy; clarification on status of Nenagh Hospital; health centre in Borrisokane; focus on employment after job losses; advanced notice for farm inspections; cutting red tape for planning laws; and swimming pools and schools.

Buyer Beware: Moriarty Tribunal report may add to bad vibes.



Playing the cards: will Gregory be content to be Speaker?
quote:
This overall drop of nine seats by the outgoing governing partners is hardly the thundering victory hailed in the initial euphoric coverage of Fianna Fail's recovery from predicted losses.

Another statistic deployed by Kenny, with an eye on Sargent, was that 60pc of the electorate voted against the FF-PD coalition. Arguing the formation of the next government was far from clear-cut, the Fine Gael leader will talk to Rabbitte, Sargent, and, significantly, Mary Harney.

This is a tantalising move to involve Harney. If she and Grealish joined an alternative government, their numbers would total 79 - a lead of one over FF, and a mere four short of the magic 83 figure. Would Kenny be able to win over at least four of the five independents? This is unlikely, but not impossible.



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Ken Burch
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posted 28 May 2007 02:22 AM      Profile for Ken Burch     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Interesting possibilities there.

But wouldn't a coalition that included Labour, the Greens, AND the PD's have to be just about schizophrenic on policy? The PD's have been the most right wing party in the Dail ever since they've come into existence, as I understand it.

Would such a government actually be able to do anything?


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Wilf Day
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posted 28 May 2007 04:38 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Ken Burch:
Wouldn't a coalition that included Labour, the Greens, AND the PD's have to be just about schizophrenic on policy?

Would such a government actually be able to do anything?



Fianna Fail's unpopularity hurt the PDs worse than it hurt Fianna Fail. A lesson here for the PDs?

If the PDs tried to punch above their weight -- with only 2 seats, they'd likely know better than to try -- they wouldn't be able to agree on much except campaign finance reform, to "clean up politics" -- a phrase which Fianna Fail, for good reason, hears as an attack on them.

A one-year coalition agreement to do that much, then call another election? Canadians would be more open to that. In Europe, they generally make coalitions run five years. In Germany, if the result was CDU 82, SPD 80, Sinn Fein 4, they'd be talking grand coalition.

So if Ireland is looking at some sort of rainbow coalition, Fianna Fail+Green+PD doesn't sound much more natural than Fine Gael+Labour+Green+PD.

Finian McGrath used to be Sinn Fein, but as an independent he's in demand. Maybe one of the Sinn Fein TDs will feel the call of the better good of Ireland?

[ 28 May 2007: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Ken Burch
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posted 28 May 2007 09:37 AM      Profile for Ken Burch     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
In Germany, if the result was CDU 82, SPD 80, Sinn Fein 4, they'd be talking grand coalition.

Or serious computer error.


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Wilf Day
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posted 28 May 2007 09:57 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Ken Burch:
Or serious computer error.

Sorry, I was forgetting the 5% national threshold. So try this:

In Germany, if the result was CDU 79, SPD 78, Sinn Fein 9, they'd be talking grand coalition.


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Ken Burch
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posted 28 May 2007 10:00 AM      Profile for Ken Burch     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
No, not the vote totals. I meant the idea of Germans voting for Sinn Fein.
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Wilf Day
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posted 28 May 2007 10:22 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Ken Burch:
I meant the idea of Germans voting for Sinn Fein.

Well, consider how Oskar Lafontaine got attacked as some kind of supposedly racist left-nationalist, perhaps some Germans think it's conceivable.

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N.Beltov
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posted 28 May 2007 10:28 AM      Profile for N.Beltov   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
(Continuing the sidebar) Well, if Sinn Fein was a big promoter of folk music, I could see a lot of Germans supporting them. 20 years ago while travelling in Ireland, I noticed that the majority of customers at folk venues were German lovers of folk music. They even outnumbered the Irish in some locations - which I thought was a bit weird.

Anyway, thanks for the info guys. Very informative.

[ 28 May 2007: Message edited by: N.Beltov ]


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Stockholm
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posted 28 May 2007 10:34 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
In Germany, if the result was CDU 79, SPD 78, Sinn Fein 9, they'd be talking grand coalition.


In fact, to make this point we don't need to include Sinn Fein. In the most recent German election, the "Left Party" which includes the PDS, whihc is regarded rightly or wrongly, as full of ex-Stasi agents from the DDR - was left with the balance of power. The CDU and the SPD formed a grand coalition because it is considered "taboo" to form a coalition with the Left Party.


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Wilf Day
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posted 30 May 2007 04:16 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
The CDU and the SPD formed a grand coalition because it is considered "taboo" to form a coalition with the Left Party.

Oh, you want a real-world simile, not a metaphoric comparison? Fine, FG's thought of an everybody-but-FF-and-SF coalition is exactly the same as the thought of a red-yellow-green coalition proposed for Germany after their last election -- the SPD, the FDP (yellow, and quite comparable to the PDs in Ireland), and the Greens. Proponents called it the "traffic-light coalition."

It never happened. So Yellow and Green found themselves out on the sidewalk (okay, enough traffic metaphors.)

The other proposal was the idea of a CDU/Liberal/Green coalition, black/yellow/green, called the "Jamaica coalition" after the colours of Jamaica's flag. Equally unnatural, it never happened either. Will the Irish FF, PDs and Greens succeed in this where their German counterparts failed?


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The_Tom
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posted 02 June 2007 09:54 PM      Profile for The_Tom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
This is absolutely incredibly awesomely good. Ex post facto analysis, but rife with naughty humour.

Think a similar format show would work here?


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The_Tom
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posted 04 June 2007 12:15 PM      Profile for The_Tom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Interesting strategy on Ahern's part.

I think the only real suspense left is whether the Green's general membership will agree to it at a special convention that they've plan to call on the matter.

It would be interesting to see if Canada would see a similar preference for party grassroots-approved coalitions were coalition governments to become the norm.


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Wilf Day
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posted 27 June 2007 03:59 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The new Irish coalition:
quote:
The new line-up is not unlike the little cars that used to be used by the clowns in the ring: the vehicle would sputter into the arena, letting off a few bangs from its exhaust pipe and exuding belts of black smoke. It would come to a halt and an inordinate number of people would emerge from it, and the wonder was how they all were got into it in the first place. So it was with Bertie's troupe – Mary Harney, Jackie Healy-Rae, Beverley Flynn, Michael Lowry, Finian McGrath and six Green Party TDs.

The Green Party has come under censure for going into government with Fianna Fail, the complaint being that voters who gave the Greens a first preference vote did not expect such an outcome. The Greens came out of the negotiations with two and a half ministers and seem satisfied with the deal they secured. Several of their core issues were not resolved. Private hospitals will continue to be built on public health sites and their cabinet colleague Ms Harney will see to that. US military planes will continue to fly into and out of Shannon Airport, a recourse that is in no way necessary, but serves to remind the Irish of their vassal status vis-a-vis Uncle Sam and his investments in Ireland.

Other critics point to the record number of Labour TDs elected on an anti-Fianna Fáil surge in 1992 and how that number was halved in the 1997 election as the electors punished Labour for going in with Albert Reynolds and Fianna Fáil.


Beverley Flynn was about to be declared bankrupt and thereby lose her seat, when Ahern declared her cabinet material.
quote:
Coming the weekend before RTE's application to have her adjudicated a bankrupt, the endorsement was timely.

Hey presto, less than a week later, RTE gave Beverly Flynn a 50pc discount on her €2.8m legal bill.

THE content of Bertie Ahern's deals with Jackie Healy-Rae, Michael Lowry and Finian McGrath for supporting a Fianna Fail-led government will drip-feed out in time.



As this brave new government prepares to take us into Bertie's Green Period, maybe we should try to see what makes its various elements tick.
quote:
So, we end up with a government dependent on the votes of:

Michael Lowry, former Fine Gael minister, who defrauded the State, lied to the Revenue and with great deliberation, misled the Dail.

The other independents supporting the government were smacked down by the Taoiseach on Friday, after Jackie Healy-Rae, Finian McGrath and Michael Lowry claimed they got great deals. Mr Ahern told Sean O'Rourke on RTE that the deals they got in return for a commitment of five years' support consist of things "that are in the National Development Plan".

It's no secret that this, more or less, is how the Greens were reeled in - being allowed attach themselves to things already in the Fianna Fail manifesto. Cheesed-off at being in Opposition (and even more desperate than the Labour Party), all they needed was to have their bellies tickled.

What's shocking about the Green collapse is not that they joined with Fianna Fail - they had every right to do so if they wanted to trade their votes for things that will benefit the citizenry. What's shocking is the price they accepted.

Any time they tried to touch anything that involves the relationship between Fianna Fail and its business sugar daddies, their hands were slapped away. "A ban on corporate donations" - the very thought. Forcing developers to finish estates and provide such social necessities as schools - out of their immense profits - pull the other one. The developers who hoard land and jack up house prices - a protected species.

In short, welcome to the real world, kiddies - don't worry, you'll get some goodies, as long as you stay in line. On yer bike, Trevor.

Michael, Bev and the Green Hornets, in harness - it's going to be an interesting five years.



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Ken Burch
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posted 27 June 2007 04:09 PM      Profile for Ken Burch     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by The_Tom:
Interesting strategy on Ahern's part.

I think the only real suspense left is whether the Green's general membership will agree to it at a special convention that they've plan to call on the matter.


And would the Green TD's who have visions of cabinet posts dancing in their head actually go along with the general membership if it said "feck no, ye gobshites!"?


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Wilf Day
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posted 27 June 2007 04:49 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Independents Day, the sequel (see above). Only Tony Gregory voted against Bertie Ahern (as I suggested above, the Greens proved cheaper than our Tony).

Independent TD for Kerry South Jackie Healy-Rae signed a deal with Mr Ahern on Monday that is worth tens of millions of euro for his constituency, while Finian McGrath, an Independent TD in Dublin North Central, also agreed a package in exchange for support.

When Bertie offers Bev the political equivalent of his last Rolo, how honourable are his intentions?

quote:
That he desperately wants her is as plain as the 'nos' on his backbenchers' faces. But why? Dear God, can anybody, please, explain why?

As any alarmed mother-of-a-shotgun-groom might sniff, he certainly doesn't need her. His Government has 85 seats, set in concrete by the bartered support of three other independents; Jackie Healy-Rae, Finian McGrath and Michael Lowry. Wooing Bev, especially after she has already plighted her troth to him, seems excessively cautious.

A JURY found that Beverley Flynn committed fraud. She is also a proven debt-defaulter. In another jurisdiction (or, perhaps, were she someone else in this jurisdiction), she would be prosecuted for breaking the law. Instead, the Taoiseach, who talked of her "temporary difficulties" as if she had conquered a dose of halitosis, has decided to make an honest woman of her.

Odd, isn't it, how it only serves to cheapen the call to public service.



Here comes Humpty-Dumpty again, adroitly putting back together what we citizens had been led to believe was broken beyond repair.
quote:
Unlucky for Tony Gregory, the original of the species and the only one of the five in-coming Independents who has not been courted for his support. The way political commentators breezily explain that this is because Gregory shares an electoral patch with the Taoiseach shows how ingrained has become our collective acceptance of cynical politics.

Which brings us to Finian McGrath, the fourth cornerstone upon which this new government will balance. If ever there was a lesson that probity in public life is not confined to the provenance of the cash stuffed into the sock under the bed, Finian, the Singing TD, has provided it. His declaration that his conscientious objection to CIA abduction flights transitting Shannon Airport was for sale in a trade-off for power made Bertie Ahern's dig-outs look more benign than the Peter's Pence collection.

Many commentators concluded that the result indicated a tolerance among the electorate of low standards in high places. This interpretation is an insult to voters who have demonstrated a clear understanding that transparent personal finances are not the A-to-Z of the moral barometer.

Sometimes, we ask no more than that our leaders, having set an acceptable standard of conduct, stick to it.

Three Independents who are considered not good enough to represent either of the two main parties, will provide the foundations of the new government. By any standards, that speaks of utter contempt for the people.



A row blew up in the Dail over claims that the independents had secured "secret" guarantees, with Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny saying that there were claims that they cost hundreds of millions of euro.
quote:
"The taxpayer is entitled to know how every euro of taxpayer's money is spent."

He claimed that Finian McGrath was "under pressure not to publish the details of his deal", which Mr Kenny mockingly claimed to be of international significance. Jackie Healy-Rae had said that his package involved changes to the national development programme, while Michael Lowry had said his included "very substantial monies".

Labour leader Pat Rabbitte said that a number of independent deputies were "running around the House waving bits of paper" and that Jackie Healy-Rae was treating his "like the third secret of Fatima".



Ahern can no longer be everybody's best friend because the money is drying up and the economy is slowing down.
quote:
Ahern will be "seeking an early meeting with IBEC and ICTU to discuss how we can together tackle inflationary pressures."

With such clarity of both language and intent, there clearly is no crisis.

Ahern - once he has a government - will summon the partners, announce a public sector pay freeze, dismantle the second round of benchmarking awards, cut back on government spending (what a shock to discover that it, inexplicably, jumped by more than 20 per cent before the election), reduce stealth taxes, cut a few points off the VAT rates and trim the cost of government services.

If he's feeling really punchy, he will also break up the ESB into four separate, competing electricity generators, flood Dublin's streets with privately operated buses and invite the private sector to tender for a wide range of services that are currently being provided by the State.



Labour (and Tony Gregory) did well to stay out of this circus.

[ 27 June 2007: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
rabble-rouser
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posted 20 August 2007 08:24 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
A bit late, I finally read opposition leader Enda Kenny's comments on the Greens joining the cabinet:
quote:
. . what we are witnessing today in this Government is not the marriage of true minds, but the ultimate, cynical marriage of convenience. It is broad based but it is certainly not compatible. In fact, to quote the Taoiseach, it is a dolly mixture confection that cannot work. The 78 Fianna Fáil Members, six Green Party Members, three Independents and let us not forget the two Progressive Democrats comprise the ultimate dolly mixture advertised by the sweet company as “little colourful candies... packed with fruity flavour”, appropriately, perhaps, from the leader of the sweet company, Bertie Basset.

In the general election the parties now lined up on the Government benches actively campaigned against each other. The Green Party said that the issue of the Taoiseach’s finances made him “a dead man walking”. Its members said that Fianna Fáil “needs to go into Opposition and radically change itself before the Greens could even consider a coalition with it”. Fianna Fáil, as the Ceann Comhairle will be aware, said “the Greens are a rabid crowd of tree-hugging muesli-eating wackos -- Ireland needs Green economics like a lettuce needs slugs....”. Others described the party as “jihadists”. They said “the Greens wouldn’t touch those opportunists with a barge pole”. They also said that with Fianna Fáil it is a case of “if you don’t like our policies today, we can change them tomorrow”.

I hate to disappoint the Green Party Members, but Fianna Fáil did not change its policies at all. The Green Party has naively wandered into a programme for Government with Fianna Fáil written largely over it. It is a Government with Fianna Fáil at its centre, unbowed, unshaken and as arrogant as ever. There are no new ideas and no new solutions. However, this time the Fianna Fáil bicycle has not one mudguard but two. At the front, well used but badly worn, there are the remains of the Progressive Democrats. At the rear are the eager Green Party Members, all shiny and new.

The strongest Green Party input I can discern in the programme for Government is that it has saved a substantial section of some rain forest by managing to cut and paste so much of the Fianna Fáil manifesto, word for word, into this programme after ten days and nights of intensive discussion. It is difficult to see why it took so long to agree it. Any mess had more to do with scissors and glue than anything about policy. The Green Party has bought the Fianna Fáil manifesto, lock, stock and three pork barrels. It has swallowed huge chunks of Fianna Fáil policy, with all its failings in health and other vital public services. The Green Party has sacrificed its unique political identity, swapping principle for power.

What is the result? Are there specific commitments on key Green Party policies? No. Are there assurances of a strategic shift in Fianna Fáil thinking on the green agenda? No. The programme is full of promises to review, examine and consider policies. All of them are worthy but ultimately useless when it comes to forcing specific decisions in Government. The Green Party will discover, for example, that a promise from Fianna Fáil to publish a Green Paper on local government reform is just that, and no more. Fianna Fáil has, over the years, perfected the art of publishing reports and leaving them sitting on shelves. The Minister, Deputy Martin, produced 102 of them when he was responsible for health and they are still gathering dust and cobwebs.

That is how Fianna Fáil deals with policies it does not wish to implement. Whichever Member of the Green Party becomes leader of that party has wandered into a parlour where the spider knows exactly how to play the web. Fianna Fáil has had ten years of practice; ask cystic fibrosis sufferers, the women waiting for BreastCheck to come to their area and cancer sufferers waiting for radiotherapy. The Green Party has signed up and its Members have their ministerial jobs. They forgot that they should be men of values as distinct from men of success.

I believe the Green Party has made a fundamental political mistake. It has the mistaken view that what little it has achieved in the programme for Government can be dramatically expanded by it in Cabinet. Deputy Cuffe said today that the Green Party would change the way the Government does its business. This demonstrates a naivety about how Government works. History shows that any smaller party entering coalition without specific, tangible commitments will struggle once the day-to-day, hurly burly of governing begins. There is no better man to define that in beautiful terms than the Minister, Deputy Brennan. He has been around this course previously and he knows, as a chief negotiator, where those boys have been put in the last ten days.

Yes, they will have a voice. In the end, however, as with the two Progressive Democrats, it will be their master’s voice. There are no better masters to let the servant take a hiding to save themselves. They might be the golden boys in the new Administration and give it a nice gloss — they deserve their short holiday — but soon they will find out what it is to become the whipping boys of Government when things start to go wrong. One thing is sure, however. Throughout the country Fianna Fáil parents can relax because they can be sure that when their Fianna Fáil sons and daughters are in Dublin, they will certainly be eating their greens.

There was one policy for which this Government has no mandate, namely, the construction of private hospitals on public land. The last Government did not have a mandate for it and the Green Party voted against it, but it has now been sucked into it.



From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Brian White
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posted 20 August 2007 09:24 PM      Profile for Brian White   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
All governments are coalitions of people.
If you want leader cults with all the wheeler dealer stuff done in total secret, try a government with harper or martin and a pack of loyal piss-on's who kiss the leaders ring before they even are allowed to go up for nomination and never do or say anything that the leader could conceive of as out of line.
Wilf shows contempt for real politics.
Here we have bofoons calling women parliamentarians dogs. Not just any bofoon either.
the bluddy minister for afganistan himself.
Ireland is a mickey mouse country with a higher standard of living and higher home ownership rates than Canada.
In my view, that is really disgusting. What the hell is going on here? We have 20 times the resources per person. It is an amazing political fact that we are poorer.
Yeah, wilf, I know you want mmp and dominion and to be part of the empire again. And I know you enjoy hounding stv supporters out of babble.
Enjoy the audience when you are the only one left.

From: Victoria Bc | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
Ken Burch
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posted 21 August 2007 09:54 AM      Profile for Ken Burch     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
So we can assume it's likely the Greens will be punished for their total sellout in the next election.

The other question is, will the Irish Labour Party finally take the hint from the last three election results and stop trying to be more Blairite than Blair, since those last three results prove that Blairism doesn't work for them?


From: A seedy truckstop on the Information Superhighway | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 21 August 2007 07:00 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Brian White:
Wilf shows contempt for real politics.

No, Enda Kenny does. If you go to the next page in the debates you'll see Pat Rabbitte being much more respectful and rational, and I would agree with him, but not with Enda Kenny.

I just thought it was a classic Irish rant.

Rabbitte said:

quote:
Most informed citizens will be incredulous that Deputies Harney and Sargent have been prepared to enter Government with Deputy Bertie Ahern without challenging him to provide reassurance about questions at the planning tribunal that seem incapable of satisfactory answers. Both Deputies, in so far as we know, have been prepared to walk into Government with their eyes open and if they have raised this important issue, the House is entitled to know about it.

For example, it has been little commented on that the programme for Government contains a commitment to reinstate the Bill to permit the Government to shut down the tribunals. One might state that has or does not have merit, but it did not have merit when, in the 29th Dáil, the Greens fought that attempted shutdown tooth and nail. However, it is enshrined in the programme for Government.

Having said that, I offer my congratulations to the two new Green Party Ministers and I wish them every success. They will need every week to chalk up successes, given the bad start they have made. They approached the negotiations for Government with only one clear objective, that is, whatever happens we must get into power.

Political power is taken by those in a position of political strength and the Greens are not in that position. They are, as they admit, not needed by this Government and therefore they were not in a position to demand policy goals and did not in the event succeed in achieving any policy goals. Of course, there are reviews, commissions, analyses and some minor worthy achievements, but this remains a Fianna Fail Government where the Greens are merely guests in power. If the two new Ministers are to prove otherwise, they will need to be a great deal more canny in the conduct of their Departments than they were in the conduct of the negotiations with Fianna Fáil.

It is difficult to argue with former Deputy Dan Boyle’s own summary in the Irish Examiner this morning, when he stated:

"It is not a great document, it may not even be a good document, but it does contain good elements and those elements come from us."

I do not dispute that frank and honest assessment, given the checklist of big ticket items that were so close to the hearts of the Green Party, that is, that they would re-route the M3 to save the Tara heritage landscape, scrap the private hospital building plan, withdraw tax reliefs from private hospitals and reallocate them to public health care provision, stop the use of Shannon by American military in time of war, stop Mountjoy being moved to Thornton Hall and end corporate funding of political parties — I would have loved to have been present when that latter matter was raised with the Minister, Deputy Cowen, and company. The list goes on. Deputy Sargent, for example, told the Portmarnock Residents Group, UPROAR, that he would stop the second runway at Dublin Airport and Deputy Gormley told his constituents in Ringsend that he would stop the incinerator. I know that as a party to coalition one cannot get everything, but by any standards this is a remarkable policy surrender.

I do not want to rain on the Greens’ parade because this is an important night for them, but I have great difficulty understanding the party’s approach to installing themselves in Government. It is almost as if the Green Party has evolved a new ideology that policy does not count with the people anymore; what counts is being around the Cabinet table. I have great regard for the personal qualities of Deputies Gormley and Ryan, and I am on the record as annunciating as much. The proposition advanced by Deputy Gormley, which I heard him again say this morning, that the Greens were negotiating with Fianna Fail and that it is really of no consequence who else was involved or who else — any other parties or individuals — wants to join it, is a mind-boggling concept. If the Progressive Democrats, for example, are still the Progressive Democrats — although I think that Deputy Harney has retreated mentally to the spiritual home — it is remarkable that a party which in its previous existence on this side of the House opposed the Progressive Democrats so strongly does not think it is of any consequence whether the Progressive Democrats are in or out.

Deputy Sargent stated that, like 91% of his supporters, he did not want to see Fianna Fail back in power. He has now taken a very selfless decision to resign the leadership of his party. I respect that but there was another way to honour his commitment to the people of Ireland, by not putting Fianna Fáil back in Government. He has put Fianna Fáil back in Government and the Greens are merely guests in that Government.


[ 21 August 2007: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3276

posted 28 August 2007 04:02 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Above, Pat Rabbitte said "there was another way to honour his commitment to the people of Ireland, by not putting Fianna Fáil back in Government."

Actually that doesn't look possible to me. Now that the dust (Michael Lowry) has settled we can see a parliament split 50/50:

Right 83:
Fianna Fail 78
Progressive Democrats 2
Beverley Flynn
Jackie Healy-Rae
Michael Lowry

Centre-Left 83:
Fine Gael 51
Labour 20
Green 6
Sinn Fein 4
Finian McGrath
Tony Gregory

So Finian McGrath and the Greens made a deal with the devil. The only alternative I can see was another election. Maybe that would have been better?

Or did Pat Rabbitte have in mind a minority government dependent on Sinn Fein, with Michael Lowry as speaker? A bit much, even for Ireland.


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Ken Burch
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posted 28 August 2007 10:29 PM      Profile for Ken Burch     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Or did Pat Rabbitte have in mind a minority government dependent on Sinn Fein, with Michael Lowry as speaker? A bit much, even for Ireland.

Would that really have been worse than keeping Bertie and the lads in power?

Then again, the Celtic Tiger is slowing down a bit, so perhaps it might be better for Fianna Fail to still be in office when the crunch hits so that they would take the hit.


From: A seedy truckstop on the Information Superhighway | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged

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