United Iraqi Alliance #169 - 48.19%
Kurdish Alliance #130 - 25.73%
Allawi's Iraqi List #285 - 13.82%
Ghazi's "Iraqis" (Sunni) #255 - 1.78%
Turkman Iraq Front #175 - 1.11%
Moqtada Sadr's group #352 - 0.83%
People's Unity (communist) #324 - 0.83%
Islamic Group of Kurdistan #283 - 0.72%
Islamic Action Organization In Iraq/ Central Direction #111 - 0.51%
National Democratic Alliance #258 - 0.44%
"Al Rafideen" Christian Assyrian #204 - 0.43%
Liberation and Reconciliation Gathering #311 - 0.36%

These others don't have enough votes for one of the 275 seats:
Coalition for Iraqi National Unity #146 - 0.28%
Pachachi's Independent Democratic Gathering #158 - 0.28%
Iraqi Islamic Party #351 - 0.25%

The National Democratic Alliance is said to be mainly Sunni, but secular and liberal. However, it is headed by the present Justice Minister Malik Duhan al-Hasan.

The Liberation and Reconciliation Gathering is headed by
Mishaan Al Juburi, part of a group of Sunni politicans who argue it is better to compete and have a voice.

The Iraqi Islamic Party said they were boycotting except in Diyala province, but almost enough of them voted there to rate a seat nationally.

The out-of-country results were a bit different. The People's Unity list got 4.41%, including 11.59% in Canada, 8.23% in Sweden, and 8.19% in the USA.

[ 15 February 2005: Message edited by: Wilfred Day ]

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Kurds want what they see as their fair share of power, including a Kurd as president or prime minister. They also want two potentially explosive issues resolved in the constitution set to be written this year, Barzani said: Kirkuk and other cities should be incorporated into Kurdistan, and Kurdistan should preserve its independent Peshmerga militia. Barzani called these nonnegotiable "red-line" issues. "It would be impossible for us to accept" any new limits on Kurdish autonomy, he said.

Baghdad controls foreign, defense, and monetary policy, with all other powers in the hands of the autonomous Kurdish regional government. But only Kurdish security forces and Peshmerga fighters are allowed inside the Green Line that separates Kurdistan from the rest of Iraq. And Barzani reiterated that Iraqi federal troops controlled by Baghdad could enter Kurdistan only with the permission of Kurdish authorities.

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The United Iraqi Alliance (Shiite alliance backed by Shiite Muslim clergy): 4,075,295 about 48 percent for 140 seats.

The Kurdistan Alliance (coalition of two main Kurdish factions): 2,175,551 about 26 percent for 75 seats.

The Iraqi List (headed by U.S.-backed interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi): 1,168,943 about 14 percent for 40 seats.

Iraqis (headed by interim Iraqi President Ghazi al-Yawer): 150,680 for five seats.

The Turkomen Iraqi Front (represents ethnic Turks): 93,480 for three seats.

National Independent Elites and Cadres Party: 69,938 for three seats.

The Communist Party: 69,920 for two seats.

The Islamic Kurdish Society: 60,592 for two seats.

The Islamic Labor Movement in Iraq: 43,205 for two seats.

The National Democratic Alliance: 36,795 for one seat.

National Rafidain List (Assyrian Christians): 36,255 for one seat.

The Reconciliation and Liberation Entity: 30,796 for one seat.

Total votes: 8,550,571.

Invalid votes: 94,305.

Minimun number of votes to qualify for one seat: 30,750.

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Turkish concerns focus on the area around multi-ethnic Kirkuk, where the Brotherhood slate allied to the Kurdish Alliance of Jalal Talabani and Massoud Barzani won 59% of the provincial council vote. The Turkoman Front, representing a minority that Ankara has vowed to protect, took 18%.

Turkey ruled Kirkuk until 1923, and nationalists still regard it as Turkish territory.

Mr Erdogan has warned that Turkey will not stand by if Kurds try to realise their objective of including Kirkuk in the Kurdish autonomous region.

He complained last month that tens of thousands of Kurds had moved into the area since the war. Many want to reclaim land and property lost to the forcible "Arabisation" policy pursued by Saddam Hussein.

But Ankara protested yesterday that resulting "imbalances" had skewed the Kirkuk poll. "Some people are looking the other way while mass migration takes place," Mr Erdogan said, in a dig at the US. "This is going to create major difficulties in the future."

The issue has dominated the Turkish media for weeks amid reports of sporadic assaults and intimidation of Turkomans. Turkomans and Iraqi Arabs have vowed to resist Kirkuk’s assimilation amid talk of possible civil war.

"Kirkuk is the number one security issue and public concern right now," a Turkish diplomat said. "Kirkuk is a potential powder keg. For us it has special status. It is like Jerusalem. It belongs to all the people. We do not want to intervene in Iraq. But we have red lines - Kirkuk and attacks on ethnic minorities."

Other considerations are in play. Whoever controls Kirkuk potentially controls oilfields representing 40% of Iraq’s proven reserves. Such wealth could render an independent Kurdish state economically viable.

There are also widely-shared concerns that the Iraqi Kurds’ advances could inspire emulation by the Kurdish minority in south-east Turkey as well as among Kurds in Syria and Iran.

US reluctance to suppress 4,000 secessionist Kurdistan Workers party guerrillas exiled in north-east Iraq could tempt Ankara to do the job.

. . the national election results have given the Kurds significant leverage and they may insist on Kirkuk as the capital of Kurdistan in return for supporting the new government.

Kurdistan’s most likely president, Massoud Barzani, has already sounded like a head of state when he insisted in a TV interview that Kirkuk was a Kurdish city.

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Originally posted by RED STATE REPUBLICAN:
That is not what i have heard. Considering that the UIA is backed by Ayatola Ali Al Sistani, who has not been shy about criticizing the US in the past, the US would be making a big mistake if it were to try and bully the new government.

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I think you mean "will be making a big mistake when they bully the new government".
But that's the thing--the elections are irrelevant in terms of medium term outcome. Not that the elected officials won't do any stuff, but take these two scenarios:
1. No elections. US occupation continues. Then either al Sistani becomes tired of the US refusing to allow elections or the Shiites rally around other leaders, and the Shiites start armed resistance, broadening the fighting in Iraq immeasurably.
2. Elections are successfully forced by al Sistani. Shiites vote, expecting the new government to be able to tell the US to go home. The new government either does not, or tells the US to go home and is ignored. US occupation continues. Then either al Sistani becomes tired of the US refusing to leave or the Shiites rally around other leaders, and the Shiites start armed resistance, broadening the fighting in Iraq immeasurably.

Outcome: Identical. The elections just slow things down a bit.

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You actually believe the election is relevant? Come now, the whole world knows that as soon as the government, however it is comprised, decides to do anything that even remotley displeases Herr Busch and his ghastly subordinates it will immediatly feel the weight of the US boot.

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Originally posted by swallow:
Wire service seat counts give the Shiite alliance a bare majority in the 275-seat assembly.

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The Pakistan Daily Times says:

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. . the frontrunning coalition of Shiite religious parties backed by Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani (UIA) mustered 48.1 perent of the votes, but ends up with 54 percent of seats or 140 MPs - an absolute majority. Similarly, the Kurdish alliance obtained 25.7 percent of the votes cast on January 30 but will have 27.2 percent of seats in parliament or 75 deputies.

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This is because so many votes were wasted on parties which got less than 0.364% of the vote, which inevitably means that large parties obtain a higher percentage of seats than their share of votes:

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The first round of counting is a de facto elimination process. The total number of votes cast is first divided by the number of seats in parliament to obtain a threshhold, above which parties can remain in the race.

As a result, the 99 lists who fell short of 30,750 votes are excluded from the “second round’, leaving only 12 lists competing for parliamentary representation.

The total number of votes obtained by the 12 lists (8,011,450) then has to be divided again by 275 to determine the new minimum figure required to be automatically granted a seat. A seat is then attributed for every 29,132 votes and the four remaining seats are handed to the lists with the highest remainder.

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So then is any election, anywhere in the world relevant?? Is a Canadian election relevant? Shoudl we bother having elections here? After all if wouold the US ever tolerate government in Canada that didn't do its bidding?

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But the current Iraqi election bears little resemblance to the last one. Then, the Sunnis stayed home. This time they want to vote.

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Originally posted by DrConway:
One would think the US would have directly imposed its own first-past-the-post system to magnify the seat distribution of the officially anointed party, and brush aside concerns about the voter turnout.

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Originally posted by Briguy:
What will the US do if the newly elected government asks them to leave the country and stop killing their citizens?

OK, OK, I know. That's never going to happen. Treat it as a hypothetical.

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A public request by the new Iraqi government will not happen, until a) they have the muscle to deal with terrorists themselves, or else b) the terrorists get tired of blowing things up and forget the whole thing. Neither of these seems likely to me.

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Originally posted by Andrew_Jay:

Some really promising stuff there.

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Originally posted by Merowe:
"Terrorists"?

And the occupying army are what, exactly? (You know, the one that has killed 100,000 Iraqis and counting.)

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Honestly, I think it's getting to a point where the U.S. would be happy to get out, provided that the security situation on the ground is stable - and no Iraqi government is going to ask them to leave until it is.

EDIT: Shit. Reuters has a story out about police stopping an oil truck on the Iran-Iraq border that turned out to be carrying forged, and marked, ballots. The driver said that three trucks had already gone through.

Unfortunately this is the best source I can find, though it does carry the Reuters tag.

Police Seize Forged Ballots Headed to Iraq From Iran

[ 14 December 2005: Message edited by: Andrew_Jay ]

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about five of the 21 alliances will likely emerge with a lion's share of the parliamentary seats:

First: No. 555, the Iraqi National Alliance, comprises 17 entities, including the two major Shi'ite political parties which earned the largest number of seats in the January 30 elections. Among the significant entities in this alliance is the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), whose leader, Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim, is the number one on the alliance's slate, and the Da'wa Party of current Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Ja'fari, who is next on the slate, followed in the third place by Muna Zalzala of the Badr Organization. Other significant components of the alliance are the Sadrist Movement of the young Shi'ite radical Muqtada al-Sadr. With the ayotollahs withholding their endorsement, with growing disenchantment –even on the part of al-Sistani – with the performance of Dr. Ibrahim al-Ja'fari as prime minister, and with the emergence of a unified Sunni alliance, the predominantly Shi'ite Iraqi National Alliance is likely to do less well than in the previous elections. The alliance is also increasingly being seen as loyal to Iran, and as turning a blind eye to the growing presence of Iranian intelligence. Indeed, upon al-Sistani's withholding of his support, Iran rushed in to voice its support for the Shi'ite alliance.

Second: No. 569, National Congress Party, comprises 10 entities of a liberal and secular orientation, representing Shi'a, Sunni and Turkmen. This alliance is the creation of Dr. Ahmad al-Chalabi.

Third: No. 618, the Iraqi Accord Front, the main Sunni alliance, comprises the three key Sunni entities, namely "The Iraqi Islamic Party," under its secretary-general, Tariq al-Hashemi, "The National Dialogue Council" under Khalaf al-‘Alyan, and "The General Congress of the Iraqi People" whose head, Dr. Adnan Muhammad Salman al-Duleimi, heads this alliance. This alliance includes many chiefs of Sunni tribes.

Fourth: No. 730, the Kurdish Alliance, comprises eight entities, including the two major Kurdish political parties –"The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan" (PUK) of Jalal Talabani, the current president of Iraq, and the "Kurdistan Democratic Party" of Mas'oud Barazani, the president of the Kurdistan Region. Among the other entities in the Kurdish alliance are the Kurdistan Communist Party, and groups representing Turkmen and Christians (the latter have the largest concentration in Iraqi Kurdistan). "The Islamic Kurdish Union," which was part of the Kurdish alliance in January elections, is running its own slate in these elections.

Fifth: No. 731, the Iraqi National List, comprises 15 entities. This alliance is headed by former interim prime minister Dr. Ayad Allawi, and it includes well-known secular and non-sectarian political figures, both Shi'ite and Sunni, such as Ghazi al-Yawer, the Sunni vice president of Iraq; Hajim al-Hasani, the Sunni speaker of the National Assembly; Hamid Majid Moussa, the secretary-general of the Communist Party; Adnan al-Pachachi, the venerable Sunni Iraqi statesman; Sa'doun al-Duleimi, the minister of defense (Sunni); and former foreign minister and Shi'ite Sayyid Ayad Jamal al-Din, one of Iraq's most liberal and secular voices. The alliance also includes many leaders of the women's movement, including Fasia al-Suhail, the designated Iraqi ambassador to Egypt.

For the elections in December, there will be two groups of parliamentary seats for a total of 275 seats – the major group of 230 seats are referred to as the Seats of the National Assembly, and the remaining 45 seats are referred to as the compensatory seats. The 230 seats are distributed to the provinces based on the number of registered voters in the January elections: Baghdad (59), Naynawa (19), Basra (16), Suleymaniya (15), Erbil (13), Dhi Qar (12), Babel (11); Dyala (10); Anbar and Kirkuk (9) each; Wassit, Salah al-Din, Qadisiyya and Najaf (8) each; Dhouk and Misan (7) each; Karbala (6); and Muthanna (5).

While all slates will compete nationally, under the new system each candidate, whether running as an individual or as a member of an alliance, must declare his/her candidacy in one of the 18 provinces. A large alliance, such as the Iraqi National Alliance, will place different candidates in different provinces, with their leaders placed on top of the slates in provinces where they expect a major turnout in their favor ("safe districts" in American or British parlance). For example, the Iraqi National Alliance placed slates of SCIRI candidates in three of its potentially strong provinces and slates of Muqtada al-Sadr supporters in another three provinces, including the religiously significant province of Najaf. By contrast, an individual or a small alliance might place their efforts in one province to maximize the number of votes cast in their favor.

The 45 Compensatory Seats: The system is designed to provide a sort of "second chance" for slates or individuals who are unable to accrue enough votes within the province where they declared their candidacy to earn a parliamentary seat. Even if a slate does not receive enough votes in terms of the provincial quotient to qualify for a seat in a province, the total number of votes cast for that slate nationwide may be sufficient to make the slate eligible for a seat.

There are some other configurations that could give preference to women if their number on a slate falls below the required one-third.

In other words, every vote cast in any of the 18 provinces matters.

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A Canadian in Iraq makes the news in Pakistan:

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“It is like night and day from 10 months ago in terms of level of participation and political awareness,” said a Canadian election specialist with the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs. The institute, which has provided free campaign training to more than 100 Iraqi parties and describes its programmes as nonpartisan, granted a reporter access to its employees and training sessions on the condition that no one on its staff be named.

. . . campaign workers from the Iraqi Islamic Party, a group that boycotted the country’s last elections in January, munched rice and kebabs, their faces lighted by computer screens.

At the Iraqi Islamic Party headquarters, hundreds of boxes of posters waited to be taken by truck to regional outposts in 14 of Iraq’s 18 provinces. In another room, video editors scrutinized the latest version of the party’s television ad asking voters to help ‘end the US occupation’. The spot runs continuously on an in-house satellite station.

“Everyone here is excited. The mood and busyness are so much better than before when we just waited to see what would happen,” said B. B. Abdul Qadir, an Iraqi Islamic Party official who said his party’s goal was to win 60 seats in the 275-seat parliament. “Now we can’t wait for the voting to start.”

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Not to try and defend the U.S. here, but they didn't kill 100,000 Iraqis. The terrorists have killed far more people than the U.S. military has, and account for most of those killed. Check out a source like Iraq Body Count and see for yourself.

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Suggest you check out IBC yourself. According to them both ordinary criminals and the coalition forces have killed far more people than the anti-occupation forces/insurgents/whatever you call them. Not sure how they determined that, but I'm just pointing out that that's what your supposed source says.

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On 8 August 2005 the TNA officially requested the UN to assist in the reform of the electoral law. The position of the UN was that whatever system was selected it should be the product of a broad agreement among the Iraqi politicians. The UN strongly recommended that the system should reflect the pluralism of the Iraqi society and produce sufficient representation for minority groups and women. Throughout the process the UN offered comparisons of options used world wide.

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Go to Seat Allocation, Click on Electoral Law Presentation.

[ 15 December 2005: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]

It think it meanxs our heads hurt, this meeting has gone on to long and this sounds acceptable, and is unlikely to red flag with anybody.

[ 15 December 2005: Message edited by: Cueball ]

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Originally posted by Policywonk:
Suggest you check out IBC yourself. According to them both ordinary criminals and the coalition forces have killed far more people than the anti-occupation forces/insurgents/whatever you call them. Not sure how they determined that, but I'm just pointing out that that's what your supposed source says.

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Sydney Mornign Herald - CONSERVATIVE religious parties have surged to a runaway lead in the counting of votes to appoint a government to run Iraq for the next four years.

With more than 60 per cent of votes tallied, Washington's hopes that the former prime minister Iyad Allawi might pull enough support to build a secular administration have faded dramatically.

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. . the unfortunate (and, let’s recall, preliminary) conclusion that Sunni Arab turnout was less than I expected it to be. If that proves to be the case in the final results, Sunni turnout coupled with the UIA’s strong performance make for a very alarming pair of developments, given the majoritarian nature of the constitution.

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Sydney Mornign Herald - CONSERVATIVE religious parties have surged to a runaway lead in the counting of votes to appoint a government to run Iraq for the next four years.

With more than 60 per cent of votes tallied, Washington's hopes that the former prime minister Iyad Allawi might pull enough support to build a secular administration have faded dramatically.

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How does this suprise the US? The constitution the US imposed on Iraq doesn't allow the Iraqi government to undo any of the Paul Bremmer laws that privatized and neo-liberalized the Iraqi economy. Parties that run on a left-wing economic platform can't legally implement it, and political parties have to somehow differentiate themselves. So you get this religious conservatism. And it is beyond me how the US can be suprised by this.

[ 21 December 2005: Message edited by: Left Turn ]

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Iraq is going to be pro-Iran, and will not recognize Israel (Muqtada al-Sadr will be part of the ruling coalition!) The 38 Sadrist parliamentarians and the 50 or so Sunni ones will form a powerful bloc calling for immediate US withdrawal from Iraq.

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http://www.juancole.com/2005/12/shiite-religious-parties-dominate-10.html

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It is absurd for Bush to assert that the election "means that America has an ally of growing strength in the fight against terror," ignoring how he has "lost" Iraq to the influence and model of "Axis of Evil" Iran. Tehran's rogue regime, which has bedeviled every U.S. president since Jimmy Carter, now looms larger than ever over the region and most definitely over its oil. "Iran wins big in Iraq's election," reads an Asia Times headline, speaking a truth that American policy makers and much of the media is bent on ignoring: "The Shiite religious coalition, the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), not only held together, but also can be expected to dominate the new 275-member National Assembly for the next four years," the paper predicts based on the returns to date.

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Originally posted by Andrew_Jay:
Police Seize Forged Ballots Headed to Iraq From Iran

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Final results of Iraq's December 15 election gave the Shi'ite Islamist Alliance 128 seats, 10 short of a majority in the 275-seat chamber.

The results gave the Kurdish bloc 53 seats and former prime minister Iyad Allawi's secular list 25, with two main Sunni Arab groups, the Accordance Front and the National Dialogue Front, securing 44 and 11 places respectively.

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[ 22 January 2006: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]

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Originally posted by Andrew_Jay:
The strong(er) showing for the Sunni Arabs is definately the good news here.

One thing I have to say though, if the vote was rigged, I image that we would have seen the U.S.'s chosen man, Chalabi, actually win any seats (because he didn't, and he did really poorly last time too). I don't doubt that there were some pretty big aberations here and there - but probably not enough to dismiss the election.

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Parliamentary seats:
Unified Coalition (Shiite) 128
Kurdistani Gathering 53
Tawafoq Front (Accordance Front, Sunni) 44
National List (Allawi, Secular) 25
Hewar National Front (Dialogue Front, Sunni) 11
Islamic Union of Kurdistan 5
Turkuman Front 1
others 8

The small Sunni faction, the National Dialogue Front, opposed the Cabinet.

Saleh al Mutlaq, a Sunni legislator from the Iraqi Dialogue Front, walked out and refused the ministries he'd been offered.

Sunni Arab politician Saleh al-Mutlak, whose National Dialogue Front is the largest party not participating in the government, led his party’s 11 MPs in a walkout which was joined by around six other Sunni lawmakers. "I think the Sunnis will look at this process and see they are being squeezed into a corner," Mutlak said.