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"At a time when the growth of consumption is lower than the growth of production and the market is full of oil, prices are rising and this trend is completely fake and imposed," President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in a televised speech.

"It is very clear that visible and invisible hands are controlling prices in a fake way with political and economic aims," he said when opening a meeting of the OPEC Fund for International Development in the central Iranian city of Isfahan.

...Ahmadinejad reiterated his view that oil should be sold in a basket of currencies rather than U.S. dollars, an idea which has failed to win over other OPEC members, except Venezuela.

"The ever-increasing decrease in the dollar's value is one of the world's major problems," he said.

"A combination of the world's valid currencies should become a basis for oil transactions or (OPEC) member countries should determine a new currency for oil transactions," he said.

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Unionized workers lose their jobs, en masse, across all sectors, nuclear plants get to be forced upon peoples, locked in populations because they can't afford to move, or travel, and they, the oil producers, get to make same profits off of the oil, on our backs, because it is purchased with US dollars, which continues its decline.

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And its all cheered on by the greens!

[ 17 June 2008: Message edited by: It's Me D ]

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And its all cheered on by the greens! -By It's Me D

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But who said that the Greens are for an equitable and just society, world? Their concern is the environment. Otherwise they could well be Conservatives or Liberals.

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Originally posted by It's Me D:

Thanks, that was my point; everyone knows the old line parties don't give a shit about us common folks.

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And everyone knows Ahmadinejad does?

Hey! Here's a novel idea. Search out the statistical evidence that will lead to an informed opinion.

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Originally posted by jester:

And everyone knows Ahmadinejad does?

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Originally posted by jester:

Try the effect of well decline rates on net new production,increased consumption in oil producer countries that decreases net exports and the increasing cost structure that delays new production coming on stream.

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Tell it to the regulators - they seem closer to Ahmadinejad:

US cracks down on oil speculators

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US regulators have announced plans to impose limits on oil trades overseas.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission said the London-based electronic exchange would have to comply with US rules.

The move comes as oil prices notch up record highs, amid fears that speculators are distorting the market. ...

US sweet, light crude finished down 60 cents at $134.01, while London Brent settled 99 cents lower at $133.72.

But, oil prices are still almost 40% higher than they were at the beginning of the year and, increasingly, this surge is being blamed on speculation by large investors, including hedge funds and banking giants.

They are being accused of pushing commodity prices way above the level they would trade at to satisfy supply and demand trends. ...

The acting head of the CFTC Walter Lukken said in testimony at a Senate hearing committee: "During these turbulent market conditions for crude oil, the environment is ripe for those wanting to illegally manipulate the markets," he said.

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It would be interesting to see how much the same traders are selling the market both long and short, and how the the relationship between amounts committed in each direction changes over time.

Looking for evidence that traders are riding the market up, while keeping a significant hedge for it turning down.

Because it strikes me that no amount of oil production and supply data is sufficient to ground the increase in future price you get by reading the current near term futures prices.

In other words- the production and supply data is going to at most support a reasonable expectation that prices will rise. The data cannot support an expected oil price increase of 50-100% in the near future.

By hedging their bets, traders don't make that 50-100% increase on the capital they have invested. But they don't need to. If by hedging their bets they can make a 10% annual return while protecting themseleves from the burst of the bubble... then they'll take the 10% ...and the cummulative effect of all that is that the market price will go up at the 50% rate whether or not the production and supply data supports such an expected price increase.

[ 17 June 2008: Message edited by: KenS ]

I think the CFTC is going after the potential that exists for a handful of traders to collude and push prices up even faster than what many think is already happening legally.

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US cracks down on oil speculators

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So thats your reference? I don't believe you are gullible enough to believe the political spin smokescreen that 'cracking down on oil speculators' is anything more than an effort to deflect responsibility for the cock-up politicians have made of the economy.

Considering that political enablers, especially in the US, are hand in glove with the 'speculators', I suspect you do not have any faith in your own message.

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Originally posted by KenS:
Just to be clear, my comments were about what can be happening within totally legal limits- artificially driving up prices without any conspiracies.

I think the CFTC is going after the potential that exists for a handful of traders to collude and push prices up even faster than what many think is already happening legally.

Ironically, I would think the end result of this would be that the same colluders would time the following crash in prices, and profit from that too.

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I agree. The momentum play in oil is predicated by the weakness in the US economy and the lack of faith in the USD. Too much liquidity and too little financial safe refuge results in an excess of interest in commodities markets. This momentum allows the big players to move markets,profiting on the upside and engineering a profit on the downside. They are called hedge funds for a reason.