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There are reports that former Saskatchewan premier Lorne Calvert is on the verge of announcing he will step down as leader of the province's New Democrats.

NDP supporters have been told there will be a major announcement at a meeting in Saskatoon on Thursday night.

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The brightest member of the caucus by a mile and a half is Frank Quennell, no contest. But in an image age, he has his own challenges.

There are some young MLAs (McCall, Broten, Wotherspoon, Furber), but none of them have had much chance to demonstrate if they've got the stuff.

The name that's being tossed about the most is Dwain Lingenfelter.

Now, I like Dwain personally. He does bring certain advantages, including some rural / agricultural cred.

But he was first elected in 1978, for cryin' out loud. This is hardly the new generaltion of leadership to carry the party into the future.

(Not to mention that Dwain does not appeal to the "movement" side of the party.)

As much as I am not enamored of it, I don't see a lot of alternatives to the prospect of Lingenfelter as a 1-2 election leader while we get on with the leadership development that both RJR and LAC so spectacularly failed to do.

Roy Romanow, who was Deputy Premier and Attorney-General at 29, only ever appointed two ministers under the age of 40 - both of whom were 39-1/2. The Tommy Douglas who became Premier in 1944 would never have made it into a Romanow Cabinet. Nor would have many of RJR's colleagues from the 1971 Cabinet like Ed Tchorzewski (28) or Elwood Cowley (26)

Bright young minds were unwelcome in the Romanow Calvert ministry, and what should have been the next generation were (as Mandryk put it) a-Banda-ned. Names like Eremondi, Carragata and Banda, who should have been taking over the political and institutional leadership of the party about now, were frozen out.

So, we are left with Dwain, after 22 years of no succession planning.

[ 15 October 2008: Message edited by: Malcolm ]

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Bright young minds were unwelcome in the Romanow Calvert ministry, and what should have been the next generation were (as Mandryk put it) a-Banda-ned. Names like Eremondi, Carragata and Banda, who should have been taking over the political and institutional leadership of the party about now, were frozen out.

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None of them ever ran for a nomination, so who knows if they would have ever gotten into the cabinet.

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Originally posted by Malcolm:
I like David, and worked closely with him when he was Minister of Environment. He's a quick brief. But he doesn't have a strong presence and he's not a strong performer in the House.

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Going to invite you to rethink wheteher or not a strong presence is needed and whether or not you are accurate that he was not a strong performer, as perhaps your type of "strong" perforrmer is what has caused the SK NDP to melt down.

Because IMV, what you are saying is he does not have the "strong leader" image, for some of you men. He is not pushy, or aggressive and his manner is undertstated but strongl there

That's a good thing IMV, as a woman, and he would be the type of leader I would be looking for, if there was not a woman around for the position. His understanding of equality rights, in particular for women, comes from within, as opposed to having to struggle to overcome white male privilege beliefs, as most men do.

Moreover, I would say that his re-election, as the SK NDP crashed and burned around him, says much about his performance in the house and in his constituency, as opposed to the many others who were not re-elected, who were supposed to be the "strong" performers and good leader material.

Yes, his personality style is very low key, but he is a leader from behind the scenes, and he is a caring individual and deeply committed to solid social justice and environment issues. And most seriously, do you honestly believe that Calvert had presence? Or even that he was a "strong" leader?

Personally, I believe David would be very good for Saskatchewan and the SK NDP, he is a consensus builder, always has been, and also IMV, he is really not into factions and the other BS in politics, such as when people try to climb over each other for power and access to the public trough. Pushing their way to the top on empy words and stolen work.

Sure, he could probably bump up his external persona, which is easy enough, but it is his internal integrity which counts for me, and I am sure for many other people, who are sick and tired of all the extremely nasty politics and the male "strong leader" images. And as you say, he is a "quick brief".

David's rural agricultural roots are strong and he may have a central northern riding as his constituency, but his rural southern province roots are deep and enduring. And I believe he could bring many, southern and northern constituency, rural votes back to the party, with his connections now in the Saskatoon and nothern areas. He is a man from both ends of the province. And he could and would be a uniter and gatherer.

Saskatchewanites and the SK NDP could do a hellva lot worse, and the SK NDP would be doing so with Dwain. There is no way he could win against the SK Party and as such, it would be a waste of a leadership race. And the NDP would be marginalized for another 4-5 years, at best.

David would/could straddle the younger and the older factions of the party, bringing the youth in and back while respecting the mature voices, and he would be a solid foundation to build on, and could still be a real contender against the youth of Brad Wall.

As you can tell, I *heart* David and have done so for 40+ years.

[ 16 October 2008: Message edited by: remind ]

2.Therefore, anybody even half credible can get in. I would expect close to half the provincial caucus to get mentioned as possible candidates.

I'd be willing to bet my house against it,given the right odds. From what I have heard *everyone* is running, and it will be a huge leadership contest. It will be interesting to see what happens when the smoke clears.

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I believe that Goodale speaks no French.

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I know, lack of French would hurt him less in the Federal Liberal race than lack of NDP background would hurt him in the provincial NDP race.

I am also not sure about the comments regarding a CWB candidate/agricultural background candiate - the NDP's base of support is urban and while people associate Saskatchewan with agriculture, its like 8% of the economy.

[ 16 October 2008: Message edited by: Louis Riel Trail ]

Forbes is a very nice man, but I'm going to disagree with anybody who says that a low-key personal style is an asset in a leader at this time and in this place. In fact, it's the opposite of what we need.

We need a dynamic leader with a shitload of charisma. I'm not sure we've got one of those around just now and it scares the hell out of me.

[ 16 October 2008: Message edited by: Timebandit ]

Seriously though, you've really identified the strengths that david Forbes would bring to a leadership race, and I certainly agree that we could do a lot worse. My main concern is this: right now, the Sask NDP needs someone to expend energy kicking butt and cleaning house, and I'm not sure that would be David's strong suit. (That said, a proxy might work just as well.)

Adam, as you say, you're in BC and don't follow Saskatchewan too closely. If you hadn't said it yourself, we'd have been able to tell from your list. There are at least two names on that list who'd have trouble getting their mothers to support them in a leadership vote, and several are best remembered for weak cabinet performances.

As I've said above, Furber, Wotherspoon and Broten may have the stuff, but we haven't had a chance to see it yet. (In fairness, they haven't had much chance to show it either.) Frank Quennell is brilliant, certainly. I once told Pat Atkinson I'd crawl across broken glass on my tongue to make her premier, but she was first elected more than 20 years ago and scarcely constitutes renewal.

Ralph will not be running for the provincial NDP leadership. Period. And he tells me he's been working on his French.

Axworthy, today, would be a weaker candidate than Hazen Argue. Nettie Wiebe is an intriguing choice (I voted for her #1 last time), but being a three time runner up - however narrowly - in federal seats doesn't help.

LRT is probably right that the race is wide open and anyone can run. We shall see what happens.

Finally, you are right, Adam, that some of those young guys didn't run for nominations. Many of them saw themselves in an institutional leadership role. Scott Banda, of course, had been lining up a run in Riversdale for about ten years when Calvert, rather than accepting any of those threatened resignations from attempted blackmail for cabinet posts, decided that he needed to run in the safest NDP seat available.

You don't seem to want to believe the criticism about the closed clique that ran the party and the government under Romanow / Calvert. All I can say is, I'm here, and I've seen it, and I am far from the only one making this criticism. Hell, it's been the periodic topic of media commentary - particularly by Mandryk.

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Originally posted by Malcolm:
Remind, you wouldn't happen to be David's mom, would you?

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Seriously though, you've really identified the strengths that David Forbes would bring to a leadership race, and I certainly agree that we could do a lot worse.

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My main concern is this: right now, the Sask NDP needs someone to expend energy kicking butt and cleaning house, and I'm not sure that would be David's strong suit. (That said, a proxy might work just as well.)

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Frankly, I don't think you need someone to come in there and start throw their weight about, and kicking ass in an aggressive way. The differing fibres need to be rewoven and individual strengths concentrated and directed, as opposed to allowing further dissipation and wasting away. The fabric of the SK NDP needs to be made whole and young people need to be brought back in by a leader who knows how to bring out the best in those who are the future of the party.

Moreover, I am sure David would know who would be his proxy if a different tactic is needed. As it might not always be the same person required.
And his solid environmental and social justice credentials are just the gravey.

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The SaskNDP is at a critical crossroads, whether the party realizes it or not. The lowest popular vote since 1935. Nearly losing a byelection in a seat won with 60+% of the popular vote in the general. These are real problems.

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I certainly recognize this, and that the party needs someone to stand in the centre of the crossroads and direct what needs to be done to unite and create a new movement.

[ 16 October 2008: Message edited by: remind ]

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That all sounds very nice in theory, remind, but it's not very realistic. Soft-spoken will not win people over, and I say that as someone who actually lives here. We need someone who comes across as a strong and decisive leader who is capable of cleaning her/his own house.

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I am not very familiar with some of the specific names put forward in this thread but in general I agree. I like tact and diplomacy for almost any project, but I think the project of lauching an NDP comeback is going to need someone who is fiery, fiesty and probably bull-headed - someone who will provide sound-bytes in the legislature and put the Saskies on the defensive. Calvert is a nice guy, and probably the right-guy for the time he came into power but this is not the time to play it clean and safe. I think the provinces' values are drifting to the right and we need a passionate defender of NDP thinking.

The Saskatchewan NDP roll isn't just to provide "conscience" - as it may be in other regions - we're a government in waiting, and need to be tough and realistic.

[ 16 October 2008: Message edited by: Louis Riel Trail ]

I think Malcolm is quite right, fresh approaches (whether from young or old) and younger NDP'ers tended to be pretty marginalized (and for those under 25, ghettoized by our damnable obsession with having a formal youth wing) over the past fifteen years. At the same time I was never a fan of Scott Banda, though I liked him well enough personally; his run for the leadership really seemed to sour things between him and the party though, not quite sure what the story was there.

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Originally posted by Timebandit:
That all sounds very nice in theory, remind, but it's not very realistic. Soft-spoken will not win people over, and I say that as someone who actually lives here. We need someone who comes across as a strong and decisive leader who is capable of cleaning her/his own house.

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I reject that conceptual framework of the aggressively strong leader needing to {b]clean house[/b] and yank solid contol into their own hands and I think a majority of Canadians to do too, as we are seeing record lows at the polling booths.

Soft spoken does not = weakness, nor lack of an ability to lead. Nor even that someone cannot draw people to them.

Because I do not live there anymore, does not mean I am not qualified to understand Saskatchewanites, nor that I do not understand the dynamics at play, all it means is I do not have a direct voice there any longer. My roots are just as deep and long as yours are.

Your roots may be here, but you're not swimming in the soup the way some of us are. You don't know the temperature of the surrounding broth in the moment as we do.

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But ya, if everyone just takes a defeatist attitude, Sask could turn into what happened in Alberta when Peter Lougheed got in, i.e. perpertual conservative governments.

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The question, at this point in the race, is who will run (or, if several run, who will emerge) as the anti-Link?

Part of the concern is that Link is likely to view the party much as Romanow did - solely as a vehicle for election campaigns. Some of us realize that, important as that piece is, it has to be more.

Outside the caucus, there are names like party president Yend Pedersen. But I don't see the spark there.

Several people have been talking about a strong candidate around which the "generational change" concerns and the "party renewal" concerns might gather. One intriguing name is Dion Tchorsewski, Regina lawyer and son of former Deputy Premier Ed Tchorzewski. He's certainly an appealing candidate.

So, really, the "next generation of leadership" candidates seem to be shaping up to:

- the four young MLAs - McCall, Broten, Furber and Wotherspoon. It's a high risk gain for them since the Link campaign looks to be unforgiving for those who don't get in line quickly.

- Pedersen, who ran a solid campaign in Regina South, but whose effectiveness as party president has been questioned in some circles.

- Tchorzewski, who doesn't face the career risk situation of the young MLAs, has a bit more broad-based cred than Pedersen, and really does appear to be driven more by a desire for public service than by a need to be "the guy."

Things will start shaking down after tonight.

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Originally posted by Timebandit:
Your roots may be here, but you're not swimming in the soup the way some of us are. You don't know the temperature of the surrounding broth in the moment as we do.

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I'm not necessarily talking about aggression, either -- more charisma than anything else. Romanow was charismatic and photogenic. Maybe it shouldn't count in a political leader, but the truth is that it does. We need somebody who has some of those superficial qualities in addition to other abilities.

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Originally posted by remind:
Okay, I can see what you mean then, and I have noted that David's external personal image could be bumped up, as he has become used to portraying himself as very low key. More low key than he actually is in fact.

Perhaps you should take him in hand and manufacture his external image to what is needed? Because IMV, he truly has the potential to build the party back from the nether regions.

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I don't think it's something you can "bump up". You've either got it or you haven't. Look how much energy was expended trying to "bump up" Dion, to no avail.

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Malcolm, do you mean Lingenfelter when you say Link?

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Originally posted by Timebandit:

It would be most helpful to those of us not as inner-circle, look-how-connected-I-am as you are to follow what you're saying if you preface the nickname, at least the first time you use it, with an actual name.

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It's...well, okay, maybe it's a bit inside, but it's hardly inner circle. I'm about as far from the centre of power in the party as you can be and still be a member, and even I've heard Lingenfelter referred to as "Link". Which isn't to say you must have or should have heard it too, just that it's not as elitist, to my mind, as you seemed to take it. But YMMV.

I don't know Lingenfelter personally, although I've met him and his ex's ex is a close friend of ours... Haven't ever heard the nickname. But yes, there's some baggage there.

[ 16 October 2008: Message edited by: Timebandit ]

Please don't anyone get me wrong. I like Link personally. I'm just not convinced he's the person of the hour. And he's a trifle too far right for me - although I think he still falls in the Sask NDP spectrum.

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Originally posted by Malcolm:
Please don't anyone get me wrong. I like Link personally. I'm just not convinced he's the person of the hour. And he's a trifle too far right for me - although I think he still falls in the Sask NDP spectrum.

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Which is to say, he's left of the Sask party. A little. I guess.

Dogbert - Yes, I'd say he's to the left of the Saskatchewan Party. I don't think he'd "be the final nail in the coffin of the Saskatchewan NDP as a progressive party," but I don't think he's the right peson for the times, in terms of age, in terms of ideology, in terms of personality, in terms of approach.

VJara - Since the provincial government has committed that the election will come no earlier than November 2011, the new leader will be in opposition for at least two years and change. And, frankly, defeating the SaskParty in 11 is a long shot regardless, barring some unforseen development. I agree that the establishment will not be in control of the outcome, but that;s in no small part because the establishment has splintered. Neither Link not the anti-Link will be positioning themselves as the inheritors of the Romanow - Calvert establishment.

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Originally posted by Malcolm:
VJara - Since the provincial government has committed that the election will come no earlier than November 2011, the new leader will be in opposition for at least two years and change. And, frankly, defeating the SaskParty in 11 is a long shot regardless, barring some unforseen development. I agree that the establishment will not be in control of the outcome, but that;s in no small part because the establishment has splintered. Neither Link not the anti-Link will be positioning themselves as the inheritors of the Romanow - Calvert establishment.

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Originally posted by Louis Riel Trail:

the NDP's base of support is urban and while people associate Saskatchewan with agriculture, its like 8% of the economy.

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It is a complete fallacy to suggest that agriculture is only 8% of Saskatchewan's economy. The rural portion of every other segment of the economy exists in very large part due to agriculture. It is the agriculture mutliplier effect.

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It is a complete fallacy to suggest that agriculture is only 8% of Saskatchewan's economy. The rural portion of every other segment of the economy exists in very large part due to agriculture. It is the agriculture mutliplier effect

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However, even if I take your assertation at face value - and the economics justified an agricultural emphasis in Saskatchewan politics, a highly controversial premise - it is probably pretty hard for the NDP to gain vote from farmers, no matter who the leader is.

[ 17 October 2008: Message edited by: Louis Riel Trail ]

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Originally posted by Louis Riel Trail:

Sorry for the derail but is this really a complete fallacy?.This document suggests, the Wonton multiplier effect is something like 2% that revenue would naturally be counted in some other category. The Chinese restaurant has barbers, mechanics, truck drivers and retail clerks for customers too and let's keep in mind that the plant that turns wheat into noodles isn't in Saskatchewan.

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However, even if I take your assertation at face value - and the economics justified an agricultural emphasis in Saskatchewan politics, a highly controversial premise - it is probably pretty hard for the NDP to gain vote from farmers, no matter who the leader is.

[ 17 October 2008: Message edited by: Louis Riel Trail ]

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Scarcely anyone would even live in rural Saskatchewan, if it weren't for agriculture.

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Originally posted by Timebandit:

Isn't it a frequently heard refrain in rural parts that people are more scarcely living there more and more?

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[ 17 October 2008: Message edited by: 2 ponies ]

Yes, service industries depend in part on the spinoff from agriculture, but that is pushing the data a little. In much of the province, they depend as much on resource extraction and tourism (which is still tourism for these purposes even if the car driving from Winnipeg to Calgary only stops to eat, pea and refuel).

The fact that there are fewer and fewer small producers and more and more agribusinesses has been discussed here and elsewhere as a contributor to the decline of NDP support outwith the cities and the North.

On 2 Ponies's point, I disagree that it will be a coronation. There will be an anti-Link, and I suspect that anti-Link candidate (whoever that eventually winnows down to) can almost certainly depend upon about 30% of the party who just won't like Link ideologically. S/he will capitalize on the sense in many quarters - even on the right of the party - that the party is long past due for a generational change in leadership, both institutionally and politically.

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Originally posted by 2 ponies:
GNOTE I take issue with your suggestion that fewer farmers means fewer customers; while in absolute terms that’s true, it doesn’t necessarily mean bad things in economic terms.

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A farmer can only get 1 hair cut, as opposed to 3 farmers getting 3 hair cuts. 1 farmer only eats so much food, as opposed to 3 farmers, buys only so many clothes...etc.

Another study essentially uses 0.8 indirect jobs for each new direct job – for 1623 new direct jobs, there will be total new jobs of 3019; so 1396 are indirect. (see page 2 of http://www.predc.com/docs/PREDC%20Documents/2006%20-%202011%20Job%20Projections%20Final%20Report.pdf)

These statistics are typically used to justify government policy; e.g. rationalizing business subsidies or industry-specific incentives such as property tax deferments, etc.

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Originally posted by remind:
do the remaining few have to travel to cities to buy their food and get a hair cut?

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The irony, of course, is that, in general, they don't "have to travel to cities to buy their food and get a hair cut." But an enormous amount of them do anyway - and wonder why their small town isn't thriving.

There's an argument to be made that the improvements in transportation infrastructure have been as devastating to the rural economy as the reduction in the number and size of farm falilies.

People left SK for numerous reasons Remind – it's that simple. A lot left farming, yes, but others had to have entered other sectors for GDP to grow and wages to grow as indicated in the stats document linked above. As agricultural wages declined, other industry wages increased. A lot of people left the province – but not all of them left the province after leaving farming – plenty of graduates, for instance, left the province after graduating (including your's truly who returned after 2 years!) because there weren't “sufficient” economic options as I explained in my last post; gee would I rather make $35k/year in SK or $80k in the NWT? Now people are coming back Remind, we've had population growth and people aren't coming back to farm – they're coming back to employment in other industries. So you can put it as bluntly as you like and it just shows that you don't know what you're talking about – it's not as simple and as black and white as you'd like to make it. Saskatchewan is far more than just farms and has been for the better part of a century. The destruction of the family farm wasn't the end of Saskatchewan and nor will it be despite the nostalgia that so many people attach to the family farm.

Yes, major thread drift but I'm too lazy to try and start another thread .

[ 17 October 2008: Message edited by: 2 ponies ]

The only one ruling it out (of those they have on the record) is Cam Broten. Andrew Thomson says he's "actively considering" a run.

Perhaps it is nostalgia for the family farm days, but I still tend to think larger farms are not so good for a variety of reasons. Nor do I think you have proven that they are.

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Originally posted by Timebandit:
Romanow was charismatic and photogenic. Maybe it shouldn't count in a political leader, but the truth is that it does. We need somebody who has some of those superficial qualities in addition to other abilities.

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Originally posted by al-Qa'bong:

Spoken like a true film maker: “We didn’t need dialogue. We had faces then.”

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Interesting how reading the face changes the meaning of the dialogue, though, innit?

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Interesting how reading the face changes the meaning of the dialogue, though, innit?

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Originally posted by Malcolm:
the election will come no earlier than November 2011, the new leader will be in opposition for at least two years and change. And, frankly, defeating the SaskParty in 11 is a long shot regardless, barring some unforseen development.

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Originally posted by RobD:
if everyone just takes a defeatist attitude, Sask could turn into what happened in Alberta when Peter Lougheed got in, i.e. perpertual conservative governments.

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Originally posted by Wilf Day:

I know little about Lingenfelter. But he doesn't sound defeatist.

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Would Lingenfelter help the NDP win seats in rural ridings?

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To date, AFAIK, Link and Nettie are the only candidates being discussed who have ever farmed.

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Calvert closing the rural/urban divide? Really? Wasn't the 2003 election split exactly on urban/rural seats (not counting the north)?

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True, but:
1.The NDP achieved their majority by gaining a rural seat.

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Originally posted by Malcolm:
The fact that the NDP won the 2003 election and the fact that our seat total in 2007 was deceptively large both due to the rural - urban split.

To date, AFAIK, Link and Nettie are the only candidates being discussed who have ever farmed.

But at a time when the Saskatchewan NDP is in need of renewal, I fail to see how either Dwain or Nettie - both three years older than Lorne Calvert - even begin to accomplish the generational change in leadership required.

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I think we have to wait and see what each candidate be it Lingenfelter or Nettie or any other individual have to say about party renewal before individuals decide who would be best to renew the party. I don't think that an older leader is necessarily a negative given they bring the experience needed to train some of the younger MLAs and they should not be outright viewed as unable to renew the party without first looking at what they plan on doing. Nettie certainly despite her age was more in line with the younger generation than Kelly Block was. So I think we have to wait and see what each individual who does decide to run offers in the area of renewal versus simply looking at age. The last time Saskatchewan had an individual around the same age as Premier Wall was Grant Devine and we all know that mess.

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But at a time when the Saskatchewan NDP is in need of renewal, I fail to see how either Dwain or Nettie - both three years older than Lorne Calvert - even begin to accomplish the generational change in leadership required.

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Agreed. People seem to be ignoring the fact than Dwain Ligenfelter, Nettie Wiebe, Janice MacKinnon (who nobody is talking about, but used to be considered leadership material) will be close to their seventies and by the time a change in the political cycle favours the NDP - Failing a huge economic collapse, scandal, or probably a bad deal involving privatization of a crown - the Sask Party isn't poised to lose the next election.

Lingenfelter would also put the NDP in the position of having a leader/possible premier who could outflank the Saskies on many business issues. Lingenfelter has been a more vocal champion of nuclear power, and oil sands development than anyone I can think of in the Sask Party (I know there must be Saskies more pro-business than Lingenfelter but the Saskies so far have governed as law and order/small business kind of conservatives) - he also has a lot of experience with Potash. Lingenfelter would no doubt be the choice of the resource companies...

If you think the best NDP strategy is to outflank the Saskies than Lingenfelter is the guy (I don't).

[ 21 October 2008: Message edited by: Louis Riel Trail ]

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The NDP achieved their majority by gaining a rural seat.

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This is what I was thinking of when I mentioned Calvert closing the rural/urban divide somewhat..

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Originally posted by Adam T:
2.The NDP actually almost won a landslide victory in 2003. They lost about half of the rural seats by less than 10%.

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And if Lorne Calvert's grandmother had had wheels, she'd have been a bus.

We lost them. All but two of them.

And we swept the cities.

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Dwain Lingenfelter is the likely front-runner in the newly hatched NDP leadership race but there are also potential candidates who are pondering whether the party's need for new blood could trump the experience of the former Allan Blakeney and Roy Romanow cabinet minister.

Former finance minister Andrew Thomson, 41, who did not run for re-election in 2007, said he's actively considering a run.

. . Saskatoon Meewasin MLA Frank Quennell, himself mulling a run . .

Nettie Wiebe, who ran for the leadership in 2001 when Calvert was victorious, said she had not ruled out another run.

Regina lawyer Dion Tchorzewski, son of the late NDP icon Ed Tchorzewski, said Thursday he's heard the pitch of those seeking generational change and is considering a run.

Party president Yens Pedersen and current Moose Jaw Wakamow MLA Deb Higgins have also said they are considering running.

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While Nettie ran a strong second last time out, she is now a three time election loser AND she's three years older than Lorne Calvert.

Deb Higgins was Minister of Labour and then Education. She stepped in it as Minister of Labour by announcing at the SFL convention that the government would proclaim a piece of legislation on available hours (ie, that additional hours beyond those scheduled must be offered to employees based on seniority) which had been passed but never proclaimed.

Problem was that the decision had not gone through the hoops and the government's ducks were not in a row for the inevitable fight. It was like watching those old films of Polish cavalry attacking panzers.

While she may have been on the side of the angels on the substantive issue, the fact of the matter was that the way she freelanced this announcement practically handed a victory to the right.

As I've said above, the problem for those who really, really don't want Link (ie the Left) is that they don't have the horses to stop him. They run about 30ish% of the party - and even some of them would rather win with an ideologically impure candidate than lose with a pure one. (One of Link's more leftish supporters actually made the best conceivable left case for Link when he said, "Link wants to make the pie bigger - he doesn't care how we cut it up.")

In 1970, the Right of the party ran Roy Romanow and the Waffle ran Don Mitchell. When push came to shove on the final ballot, the Left lined up behind Allan Blakeney because AEB could defeat RJR and DM couldn't.

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Originally posted by Malcolm:
In 1970, the Right of the party ran Roy Romanow and the Waffle ran Don Mitchell.

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Originally posted by Malcolm:
It'll be a similar dynamic this time, I expect. The last anti-Link standing will be a party moderate whose principle appeal was generational change. That candidate will inherit the bulk of the Left vote before and / or during the convention. When all is said and done, the final ballot contest will be generational change vs the Lingenfelter machine.

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In 1970, the Right of the party ran Roy Romanow and the Waffle ran Don Mitchell. When push came to shove on the final ballot, the Left lined up behind Allan Blakeney because AEB could defeat RJR and DM couldn't.

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Nettie would really apeal to the left, and also the youth. I'd be up for supporting her, that's for sure. She's about as quick on her feet as they come, and very solid behind a podium. I don't know how much damage her political capital has taken from the recent election defeats. It's not great, that's for sure, but it's not like anyone else has been able to deliver the NDP federal seats in the past 8-10 years...

I don't think any of the young kids mentioned have the needed track record in gov't to be leader yet. Broten has, what, 2 years as an MP? Not long enough, I'm afraid.

Frank Q is to the right of the NDP socially, no? Sharp guy, but I've heard he's too far to the right/centre for me. I also always think of the Jack the Pumpkin King from "Nightmare Before Christmas" when I see him. He's like 5'7" and about 108 pounds and has a bit of a humpback. On purely superficial grounds, I would not want to run him against Wall for 6 weeks.

Prebble's good, very left, has support, but I wouldn't want to run him against wall for 6 weeks for the same superficial reasons that Quenell could be an image liability.

No one's mentioned Pat Atkinson, why is that?

Truth is I'm looking for someone outside the party to run.

[ 29 October 2008: Message edited by: terra1st ]

Former Finance Minister Andrew Thomson's name has arisen but I understand it's pretty unlikely he'd run. You never know though.

Now is not the time for the class of '86. What kind of renewal is it when you're looking to people who were first elected when 20% of the voters in the next general election weren't even born?

The fact that some of the "young kids" haven't been around long isn't that much of an impediment. It's not like the Calvert ministry was a visionary government churning with creative public policy appraoches. The previous government fell asleep in 1997 and never woke up.

And the "young kids" comment is complete bullshit.

Dion Tchorzewski is 41. Yens Peterson is in his early 30s. Cam Broten is 30.

Let's compare. Dion's father, Ed, was appointed to Cabinet by Allan Blakeney when he was 29. Roy Romanow was Deputy Premier and Attorney-General at 29. Allan Blakeney was appointed to Cabinet by Tommy Douglas while in his early 30s. Tommy Douglas became Premier at 39.

Sorry, but I fail to see how you get renewal by electing a new leader who is as old or older than the old leader, or who has been around as long or longer.

ReNEWal requires a bit of NEW.

There really isn't much that's new about Link or Nettie or even my dear friend Pat.

[ 29 October 2008: Message edited by: Malcolm ]

quote:

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Originally posted by Malcolm:

And the "young kids" comment is complete bullshit.

Dion Tchorzewski is 41. Yens Peterson is in his early 30s. Cam Broten is 30.

Let's compare. Dion's father, Ed, was appointed to Cabinet by Allan Blakeney when he was 29. Roy Romanow was Deputy Premier and Attorney-General at 29. Allan Blakeney was appointed to Cabinet by Tommy Douglas while in his early 30s. Tommy Douglas became Premier at 39.

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Ah, but the difference is these guys were all squarely in the burgeoning demographic at the time.

These days the Baby Boomers are still hanging on to things by their fingernails, and the last thing they want is some young pup in his 30's or early 40's doing things differently. (Not that I'm convinced Dion, Yens or Cam would do things differently, to be honest, none of them are remotely radical, but Dion and Yens - not sure about Cam - both have impeccable party credibility, to give credit where credit's due.) Things were "different then", nowadays you need a "stronger" or "more experienced" candidate for high office. (These are, in fact, arguments I've heard from Boomers as to why age 29 now isn't the same as age 29 in the 60's/70's.)

Demographics are against the "young kids" this time around.

At the same time it's not just age - Cam is still new to the caucus, Yens hasn't been elected successfully (yet), and Dion, as far as I know, hasn't run for anything before. None of these are fatal flaws in a campaign, but combined with their relative youth of course these will be brought up. (Of the three, I'd think Dion's in the weakest position in this regard, to be honest - despite being the "old man" of the trio. )

EDIT: But overall I'm agreeing with you, Malcolm, if that isn't clear.

[ 29 October 2008: Message edited by: Erstwhile ]

Then he said we should get into selling investments. I told him that that idea wasn't much better.

I kinda feel the same way about politics. It's a job where having a little grey hair helps. That's not to say there aren't young folks who can get elected, just that you should have some maturity and experience if you want to get into the leadership side of things. 30's too young.

That's not to say that these fine folks can't take a run at the leadership next time out... that would be great. I just don't see Cam winning it right now.

To add to that, I don't like the idea of running for the leadership to raise your profile in the party... seems like a waste of money and energy. If a candidate has a chance to take it, by all means run. But don't come asking for a donation of a few hundred bucks if you hope to come in 5th and position yourself for a cabinet post.

[ 29 October 2008: Message edited by: terra1st ]

There are only two members of caucus whose names are getting any play and who haven't already said "no" are Deb Higgins and Frank Quennell. Frank's around 50, and I think Deb is about the same.

As to experience - is legislative experience the only experience? Is cooling one's heels in the marble palace the only way to prepare for higher office?

Nettie Wiebe had never run for public office when she first sought the NDP leadership in 2001.

Neither, for that matter, had Don Mitchell when he sought the leadfership in 1970.

Roy Romanow's experience consisted of three years languishing in the opposition benches.

Caucus experience at this point in the game should be a drawback. Our current caucus is the "D" team.

I think any examination of the relative experience or lack of experience among the younger candidates has to be viewed in light of the fact that many MLA's from Lingenfelter's era made little effort at succession planning.

I am also suspicous of any claim that this is renewal when the apparent frontrunner will be almost seventy when the political cycle favours the NDP - winning in 2011, would take almost a perfect storm of timing, scandal and economic collapse. The NDP needs someone to sell memberships, send clear messages, and build constituency level local organizations to fight all across Saskatchewan in order to mitigate the rural/urban split.

As for Lingenfelter's electability - he is clearly a pro-business candidate and has some rural background, yet I don't see the business and farm community breaking ranks with the Saskies to vote for him (culture trumps reason, economics) - and I am reasonably sure he is to the right of the NDP base.

[ 30 October 2008: Message edited by: Louis Riel Trail ]

I'd agree that the failure is on the part of the previous generation to do anything by way of succession planning. Indeed, a number of folks from that post-boomer generation were practically shunted aside by boomers clinging to influence by their fingernails.

Much of the present caucus is certainly the D team - and those who aren't are mostly pretty long in the tooth.

While I would agree that Lingenfelter is on the right endge of the base, I think he'd still fall in the universe of a Saskatchewan New Democrat. He will get some support from the labour movement - though mostly the private sector unions I'd expect. Mind you, one of his biggest boosters is the Executive Director of the Saskatchewan Government and General Workers Employees Union. And Link did, IIRC, have a relatively progressive run as Social Services Minister under Blakeney.

What Link does bring to the table, frankly, is the capacity to kick the party's organizational ass which, frankly, was allowed to decay under Romanow and which never managed to recover under Calvert. He would have more credibility with rural voters than any other candidate except (possibly) Nettie Wiebe.

But he is 59 now, would be 60 by the time he won the leadership. He'd be 62 by the time he faced a ggeneral election, and 66 by the time of a notionally winnable 2015 election. At 59, he is almost as old as Roy Romanow when he stepped down as Premier (61), and he's almost four years older than Lorne Calvert (55).

In fairness to Link, though, if this is opportunism, it's pretty bizarre opportunism. Had he stayed put in 2000, he'd have been the frontrunner to succeed Romanow with automatic succession as Premier. I don't see what, particularly, he gains coming back now except a much lower income and a much higher degree of grief.

All that said, I want to see real renewal, and I believe that requires generational change. I think Dion Tchorzewski is the potential candidate best positioned to offer that.