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Author Topic: New Zealand Election November 8, 2008
Adam T
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posted 30 October 2008 06:13 PM      Profile for Adam T     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Any thoughts?

Latest poll

National 43%
Labour 32%
Green 11.5%
New Zealand First 4.5%
ACT 3.5%
Maori Party 2.5%
United Future 0.5%
Progressive 0.5%

Source

[ 30 October 2008: Message edited by: Adam T ]


From: Richmond B.C | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 30 October 2008 07:24 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Adam T:
Any thoughts?

That poll would generate interesting results if Winston Peters fails to win his local seat, and his party is out of the House, but assuming Jim Anderton and Peter Dunne remain popular and assuming National continues to prop up Rodney Hide.

The result of the 120 seats would be about:

Greens 15
Progressive 1
Labour 41
Maori 3
United Future 1
National 55
ACT 4

National cannot get more than 60 seats without the Maori Party. The Labour-Progressive + Green + United Future government could stay in power with support from the Maori Party.

The Maoris hold the balance of power. Better them than Winston Peters.


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Adam T
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posted 30 October 2008 07:42 PM      Profile for Adam T     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
National had been above 50% in recent polls, but they've dropped back as the election approached.

I gather if they get the most votes though, they get the first crack at forming the government, so it remains to be seen if they can find a partner.

Winston Peters said that he would have had no trouble joining a National government.


From: Richmond B.C | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
largeheartedboy
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posted 30 October 2008 07:48 PM      Profile for largeheartedboy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Wilf Day:

The Labour-Progressive + Green + United Future government could stay in power with support from the Maori Party.

Problem is that United Future Leader Peter Dunne has already said he'll side with National, so it looks like Labour and the Greens will need to eat into National's support a little more.


From: Ottawa | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 30 October 2008 08:41 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Adam T:
I gather if they get the most votes though, they get the first crack at forming the government.

No, it's a parliamentary system, so it works the same as ours: Labour can put a coalition together if it can assemble support from a majority.
quote:
Originally posted by largeheartedboy:
Problem is that United Future Leader Peter Dunne has already said he'll side with National.

He usually gets support from voters for both main parties by being middle-of-the-road. Siding with National could cost him his local seat, which would doom United Future.

The "single-local-seat" loophole in New Zealand has turned out to distort the working of their MMP system: for small parties, it's all about getting support for their leader to win his local seat. National props up ACT, Labour props up Progressive, and United Future and New Zealand First may die if they don't play the satellite party game carefully. Not the way proportional representation normally works.

[ 30 October 2008: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Adam T
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posted 01 November 2008 05:28 AM      Profile for Adam T     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Latest Poll
National 50.4%
Labour 37.0%
Green 5.4%
Maori 2.4%
New Zealand First 2.1%

Source


From: Richmond B.C | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 01 November 2008 06:50 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
so, why are New Zealanders so pissed off with Helen Clark and the Labour Party - or is it just that they have been in for a long time and people feel its time for a change?
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Adam T
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posted 01 November 2008 08:08 PM      Profile for Adam T     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Angus Reid analysis of New Zealand political situation. I'm not really sure it fully explains why National is up so much.

report

It says here the election is November 9.


From: Richmond B.C | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
Adam T
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posted 02 November 2008 03:44 AM      Profile for Adam T     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
'Latest' poll.
It should be pointed out all of these polls are from mid to late October.

National 47%
Labour 35%
Green 8%
Maori 3%
New Zealand First 3%
ACT 2%

Source


From: Richmond B.C | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 02 November 2008 12:37 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
This election will test New Zealanders' memories. When they read "National Party at 50%" will they still say, as they did the last time that happened in 2002, "wait a minute, we decided back in 1993 that we didn't want to give one party unbridled power."

So in 2002, by election day Labour had dropped from over 50% in the polls back to 45% or 42% on election day.

Might be the same this time. Or not.


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 08 November 2008 09:27 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The National Party can work with either ACT or the Maori Party. Three seats short of a majority, if ACT with five seats tries to overplay its hand, National can rely on the Maori Party's five members instead.

National Party leader John Key: "I also spoke to Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia and I expressed my willingness to engage in dialogue with her and her party next week."

quote:
In a move to unite the country, he indicated his willingness to give the Maori Party a voice in his new Government.

Well, and also a move to give his government a second stool.

In short, MMP worked. No manufactured majority. No need to rely on a single partner for a majority.


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged

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