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Author Topic: Elections in India
Willowdale Wizard
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posted 19 April 2004 07:37 AM      Profile for Willowdale Wizard   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
ABC

reuters

toronto star

washington post

ny times (password: babblers8, login: audrarules)

quote:
Voting begins on Tuesday in the first stage of a mammoth exercise involving over 670 million voters, who are expected to give the ruling Hindu nationalist-led coalition a new five-year term to rule. Voting will take place in 13 of 29 states -- including Andhra Pradesh and parts of troubled Jammu and Kashmir where Muslim militants and political separatists have called for a boycott of elections.

Vajpayee's BJP has dropped its hardline Hindu agenda, and is campaigning on a feel-good platform of strong economic growth, governance and peace prospects with Pakistan.

In latest polls, India Today magazine said the BJP-led coalition will likely take 282 seats in the 545-member lower house of parliament, more than the half required to rule but far less than 335 seats that the magazine predicted in its first survey in January.

Other polls in the last week have given the BJP-led coalition between 276 and 278 seats, but one poll by The Week magazine gave them just 248 -- far below a majority.

But even if the coalition fails to get a majority, analysts say it will still emerge as the largest group and probably be able to attract smaller parties to form a government.

But main rival Congress led by the Italian-born Sonia Gandhi says the BJP, which it has long accused of a deep-seated bias against the nation's 120 million Muslims, remains a threat to the country's secular character.



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josh
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posted 19 April 2004 09:56 AM      Profile for josh     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Wonderful. India's version of the Likud party rolling to another victory.
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swallow
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posted 19 April 2004 12:52 PM      Profile for swallow     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The BJP is chock-full of nasties, but i sure wish Likud had Vajpayee's willingness to talk peace with the "enemy." And i really wish Congress was able to enunciate some reason that people should vote for them, some of the vision of Nehru, rather than the family cult they seems to be reduced to. In many ways, the BJP has never won elections, it's a matter of Congress losing them.
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Mandos
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posted 19 April 2004 12:55 PM      Profile for Mandos   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I dunno about Nehru. I think he was part of the problem.
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Cueball
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posted 19 April 2004 12:58 PM      Profile for Cueball   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
The BJP is chock-full of nasties, but i sure wish Likud had Vajpayee's willingness to talk peace with the "enemy."

You mean talk peace with George Bush's "houseboy" in Pakistan.


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Mandos
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posted 19 April 2004 01:02 PM      Profile for Mandos   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
At the moment, there is no alternative but to deal with Musharraf on the present terms. Neither does Musharraf have any alternatives either. In a sense, the current quiet in India-Pakistan relations is due to the participants having no other choice.
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Cueball
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posted 19 April 2004 01:06 PM      Profile for Cueball   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I can't say. I really have no choice, and no solution either -- when I can think of one I'll let you know. But that does not mean the Musharaf is not GWB's "Houseboy."
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swallow
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posted 19 April 2004 01:11 PM      Profile for swallow     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Mandos:
I dunno about Nehru. I think he was part of the problem.

Yeah, maybe so, lots of smart Indian writers have made a good case for that. I think he'd do a better job of explaining to voters why the BJP is not a such good idea than Sonia Gandhi, though.


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Mandos
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posted 19 April 2004 01:26 PM      Profile for Mandos   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Most Pakistani writers also, I think, blame Nehru.
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Wilf Day
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posted 20 April 2004 12:03 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
In "the world's largest democracy," the various Left alliances may do better than the western press expects. If the BJP looks moderate, there is less pressure for "secular" voters to cast strategic votes for the Congress Party.

In Kolkata (Calcutta) and West Bengal (42 seats), polls say the Left Front should get 33 seats. Even West Bengal's Left Front government, a state government that had vehemently opposed the introduction of computers in basic areas such as banking and English in primary state-funded schools, has turned computer-savvy when it comes to election campaigning. The Left Front has designed a campaign that makes liberal use of tools like computers and televisions and has prepared videocassettes and clippings that will be telecast by cable television networks as paid advertisements. Mobile video vans too have been hired, which will go to remote areas of the state, set up huge screens and conduct video shows. "Ten to 15 years from now, there will be no takers for people shouting slogans on the streets seeking votes or holding public meetings. They will sit back at home and look at the television screen to understand what the candidate has to say," said Debaprosad Ghosh, campaign-in-charge of the Left Front.

Uttar Pradesh (80 seats): The state ruled by Mulayam Singh Yadav-led Socialist (Samajwadi) Party will once again be crucial to BJP's bid to retain power at the Centre and Congress' efforts for revival. "We do not represent any sectarian interests; we are a party which enjoys the support of farmers, lawyers, teachers, students, traders and workers" says Mulayam.

The state will witness four-cornered contests involving the BJP, Samajwadi, Bahujan Samaj Party led by Mayawati and Congress after Congress' attempts to firm up alliance were rebuffed by both SP and BSP. The Congress has been in doldrums in the state for a long time.

The stakes are high for Mulayam Singh Yadav's party as a good show in the state will allow the party to be in the position of a king-maker in the post-poll scenario in the event of a fractured verdict at the national level. Polls say the SP could get 30 of the 80 seats, and they are hoping for 37.

The Left could get 35 seats or so elsewhere.

In Kerala (20 seats) the Congress (which runs the state government) and its smaller allies are locked in a straight fight with the main opposition Left Front. Congress has a tough task in the backdrop of sharp factional feud in its rank and file and the beneficiary might be the Left parties.

In Mumbai (Bombay) and Maharashtra the Left Democratic Front is running serious campaigns in 16 of the 43 seats: 7 Samajwadi (Socialist) Party, 5 Peasants and Workers Party (PWP), 3 CPI(M), 1 CPI.

The Left parties have supposedly entered seat adjustments with the Congress in most of the states other than its strongholds like West Bengal, Tripura and Kerala. Bihar has an RJD-Congress alliance.

Left leaedr Jyoti Basu says his party would appeal to voters from Congress to prevent a division of anti-BJP votes. And he said: “If this means allying with the Congress, so be it”. He also said that his party would help in cobbling together a “secular” government including the Congress despite there being no formal alliance with it.

The Left may yet hold the balance of power. "We don't rule out joining the government. I can only say that we will help the formation of a secular coalition government at the Centre," says a Left spokesman.


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Wilf Day
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posted 20 April 2004 10:35 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Every time I hear the news media say "Kashmir is the only state in India with a Muslim majority" I wonder if they will ever mention the fact that more Muslims live in India than in Pakistan.

I suspect they don't know. One of many misconceptions.


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Mandos
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posted 20 April 2004 11:56 AM      Profile for Mandos   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
So it doesn't really matter that "more Muslims live in India than in Pakistan." It has to do with their distribution, and the (dis)agreements about how India was supposed to be partitioned. Kashmir is a Muslim-majority province; Pakistan feels ipso facto entitled to it, rightly or wrongly. The other Muslims populations elsewhere are dilute.

One of my parents was Pakistan born-and-raised. The other was born in a part of India where Muslims are a tiny minority. There's a difference.


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swallow
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posted 27 April 2004 12:21 PM      Profile for swallow     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Exit polls show the BJP & allies losing their majority.

quote:
An exit poll by the New Delhi Television, a private news channel, predicted a divided Parliament with Vajpayee's governing alliance winning no more than 255 seats, short of the 272 it needs to rule outright. The party currently controls the chamber with 303 seats. It predicted the Congress party and its allies would win up to 210 seats. Smaller groups and independents were likely to get the remaining seats.

Another private television news channel, Aaj Tak predicted 266 seats for the BJP and its allies, six short of the 272 needed for a parliamentary majority and 36 less than it got in 1999. The Congress, it said, would bag 175 seats while independent candidates would get 102.



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Wilf Day
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posted 08 May 2004 11:57 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
You thought it was odd when NDP members got phone calls from Jack Layton?

The Times of India reports:

quote:
"When I receive a phone call from Atal Bihari Vajpayee, seeking my vote, I first feel flattered. Then, I realise I am being conned. Tell me, if Vajpayee becomes PM again, can I pick up the phone and call him to tell him about my problems? Will he come on the line? . . ."

Indeed, the tech-savvy BJP may have ensured the PM's message has reached millions of voters across the country, and that the phrase "feel good" is common parlance in the villages, but it may not really have the positive results, at least in politically conscious Uttar Pradesh.

It isn't just the PM's phone calls that are a talking point here . . .



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Wilf Day
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posted 09 May 2004 12:24 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The BJP and allies are losing. Congress, the Left and others are likely to beat them 295 to 250, says the Indian Express-NDTV opinion poll.

quote:
The latest national projections—based on the exit polls for the first three phases and an opinion poll for the last—show the NDA is expected to get 240-260, the Congress and allies 190-200 and others 90-110.

The strongest Left bloc will be the 29 Left MPs from West Bengal, and they will be prepared to negotiate an agreement with Congress:

quote:
The CPM will give conditional support to the Congress if it arrives at a situation where it can form a government at the Centre, chief minister and CPM politburo member Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee said Friday.

“If we support the Congress, it will be on condition that the policy of economic liberalisation will not be pursued,” he said.

The CPM would not, however, join a Congress-led government, it would extend support from the outside.



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Wilf Day
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posted 11 May 2004 03:46 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Some western media are confused by the Indian habit of calling the two Left Front coalitions --in West Bengal and Kerala, which are likely to win 46 seats or so -- the Left Parties.

In fact the "other" parties include those whom the leaders of the Janata Dal (Secular) are campaigning for -- the socialist Samajwadi party and others -- who are likely to win a further 63 seats or so.

The Janata Dal (Secular) was the heart of the previous national left coalition, and is the Indian affiliate of the Socialist International. It is unlikely to win more than a handful of seats in its own name, but should play a key role in post-election negotiations.


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The_Calling
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posted 11 May 2004 03:10 PM      Profile for The_Calling   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Are there any right-wing parties other than the BJP? If so, how many seats are they projected to win?
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meades
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posted 11 May 2004 06:57 PM      Profile for meades     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Shiv Sena is probably one of the most monstrous of right wing parties. They've made efforts to intimidate and insite violence against Muslims, Southern Indians, and the Gujarati. I think they're expected to relatively maintain their share of the vote and seats.
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Wilf Day
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posted 12 May 2004 03:37 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Even Sonia Ghandi is expendable in the search for a secular majority.

quote:
"We are now certain that it is not going to be a BJP-led coalition government at the Centre but one of secular parties in which the Congress will be the main player," senior Congress leader Vayalar Ravi, who is credited with having inked the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party electoral alliance in Maharashtra, told rediff.com

Ravi flew from Kerala to Delhi on Tuesday following a summons from Sonia and plunged into talks with like-minded parties.

He parried a question on Sonia's foreign origins, saying the question of who would be the prime minister will be decided only after the Lok Sabha election results are out.

A number of Congress leaders rediff.com spoke to on Tuesday said former Union finance minister Dr Manmohan Singh might emerge as 'a consensus candidate' because leaders in like-minded parties are said to be 'receptive' to the idea.



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Wilf Day
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posted 12 May 2004 10:11 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Election officials begin downloading votes from ballot machines at 22:30 EDT tonight, with early trends expected within an hour or two.

The BJP's losses mean "trouble" (from the stock market perspective) for

quote:
the next round of reforms, from privatizations to more flexible labor laws . . .

"Political uncertainty raises the risk profile and lowers confidence in markets. Investment decisions will be much more difficult then," said Ashish Goyal, portfolio manager with Prudential Asset Management in Hong Kong.

Vajpayee, 79, called the election six months early to cash in on strong growth, a good monsoon and the prospects of peace with nuclear-armed rival Pakistan after the neighbors nearly went to war two years ago.

But the benefits have failed to reach the hundreds of millions living in crushing poverty in rural India, where electricity, jobs and clean water are still luxuries.

And it is rural Indians who turn out to vote in decisive numbers, not the burgeoning middle class which has been the main winner from the boom, cheap loans and an opening economy.

"What 'India Shining' are we talking about? We are dying hungry here," said Santram, a farmer just 45 miles from the gleaming new malls of the capital, referring to the BJP's campaign slogan.

The campaign saw an amazing resurgence by Congress . . which had appeared dead in the water barely a month ago.

Harsh BJP attacks on Sonia Gandhi's Italian birth failed to resonate with voters outside the cities and the entry of Rahul and his sister, Priyanka -- the children of assassinated former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi -- breathed fresh life into the campaign, drawing big crowds across the country.



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Wilf Day
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posted 12 May 2004 10:58 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Minute by minute on SimGraphics.
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Wilf Day
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posted 13 May 2004 05:34 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Results at a glance:
Congress 217
CPM etc. 45
Samajwadi 33
RJD 17
JD(S) 3
DMK etc. 25
Total 340
needed 272

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meades
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posted 13 May 2004 07:07 AM      Profile for meades     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
This is fantastic. All the leftist parties are up!

Last I checked the Communists were expected to win 41 and 10 for the CPM and CPI respectively, and the All India Forward Bloc and the Revolutionary Socialist Party both have 3 seats a piece, up from just one. The Janata Dal (Secular) is also at 5, where before they had 1. The Bahujan Samaj Party is up two seats at 16!

Also, the ADMK (BJP ally in Tamil Nadu) has been shut out! The DMK (INC ally) is picking up the seats.

Shiv Sena also is suffering a blow, down by about four or so seats.

[ 13 May 2004: Message edited by: meades ]


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josh
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posted 13 May 2004 07:42 AM      Profile for josh     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Any time a chauvinistic religious or ethnic party loses, it is good news. But I doubt it will affect India's neo-liberal economic policies.
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meades
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posted 13 May 2004 07:45 AM      Profile for meades     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I'm inclined to agree with you, Josh. However, if the CPM hold the balance of power, I think we might see some really interesting changes.
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Wilf Day
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posted 13 May 2004 09:59 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
As we all know, the First Past The Post voting system gives a premium to parties with regional strength, like the BQ in Quebec and the Conservatives in Alberta, while discouraging parties with no regional base like the old PC party.

This is even more true in India. Some people there want to switch to PR to strengthen national parties and REDUCE (through thresholds) the number of regional micro-parties (opposite to some people's preconceptions.) Remarkably, the Congress is UNDER-represented: their share of the vote would give them at least 160 seats, but they're winning only 146.

So here are the latest figures (won and leading), with actual party affiliations:

Left party - seats (Gain from 1999)
CPM 44 (+11)
CPI 10 (+6)
RSP 3
AIFB 3 (+1)
Samajwadi 34 (+8)
SJP (R) 1
RLD 3 (+1)
JD-S 4 (+3)
Total 102 (+ 30)

National Democratic Alliance (outgoing government)
BJP 140 (-40)
Shiv Sena 12 (-3)
BJD 11 (+1)
JD (U) 9 (-12)
TDP 5 (-24)
ADMK 0 (-10)
AITC 2 (-6)
SAD 8 (+6)
NPF 1 (+1)
MNF 1 (+1)
Maneka Ghandhi
Total 190 (-86)

Congress and allies
Congress (INC) 146 (+32)
RJD 19 (+13)
NCP 9 (+2)
MUL 1 (-1)
JMM 4 (+4)
LJNSP 3 (+3)
JKPDP 1 (+1)
RPI(A) 1 (+1)
KEC(M) 0 (-1)
DMK? 16 (+4)
PMK? 6 (+1)
MDMK? 4
TRS? 5 (+5)
Total 215 (+64)

Unaligned
BSP 18 (+4)
AGP 2 (+2)
JKN 2
IFDP 1 (+1)
LJSP 1 (+1)
BNP 1 (+1)
NLP 1 (+1)
KEC 1
AIMIM 1
SDF 1
Ind. 3 (-2)
Total 32 (+8)

[ 13 May 2004: Message edited by: Wilfred Day ]


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josh
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posted 13 May 2004 11:52 AM      Profile for josh     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The apparent reason for the upset:


"The resentment of the B.J.P. and its efforts to pedal the "feel-good factor" was almost palpable today among a small knot of working-class men gathered to watch the results on a news ticker in New Delhi. Many expressed dismay, common among Indians nostalgic for the quasi-socialist economy of India's first 40 years, at the economic reforms with which the B.J.P. had proudly identified itself.

"Basically it is the anger of the working class," said Sawali Rai, 34, who works in a public sector bank. "Privatization, no government jobs, prices rising. On the pressure of the World Bank they are pressuring the common man.""

http://tinyurl.com/2crr9


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NDP Newbie
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posted 13 May 2004 12:08 PM      Profile for NDP Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
While I'm glad to see that Congress won, I find it amusing that they claim to stand for "social liberalism" while supporting the continued criminalisation of homosexuality. (Proof? They did nothing to change it during their years in power.)

Congress can claim a lot of great things, but being more socially liberal than the BJP and Shivsena does not make one socially liberal. (although it's nice to see they're not calling for life sentences for private homosexual acts)

Love Congress' view of globalisation though:

"The Congress has consistently maintained that liberalisation and globalisation can be meaningful only if they are aimed at local-level economic and social transformation that directly benefits the poor in rural and urban India, bringing prosperity to the 6 lakh-odd villages of India and improving the living conditions of the urban poor."

[ 13 May 2004: Message edited by: NDP Newbie ]


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NDP Newbie
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posted 13 May 2004 06:09 PM      Profile for NDP Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Incidentally, I'm sort of not surprised with the results: Some of the poor villages in India are very backwater and it was likely not always especially easy to get a representative of these anti-BJP areas. (The rural regions of India generally stagnated or suffered under BJP reforms and policies that benefitted the urban middle and upper classes.)
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Wilf Day
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posted 13 May 2004 09:04 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Points the American press have trouble seeing:

1. Congress LOST votes. Their vote share dropped from 28.3% five years ago to 26.8% today. But the BJP's coalition lost even more votes. Only the left and the regional populist parties gained votes. As the left and populists took votes from the government, Congress picked up 31 seats as the government lost seats. Still, their regional populist allies did better, picking up 34 seats: 17 in Bihar, five each in Tamil Nadu, northern Andhra Pradesh, and Jharkhand. The Left picked up another 31. In other words, the BJP's "India Shining" and "feel good" slogans caused a reaction among every disfavoured segment of Indian society, rural or urban.

2. The left in India usually manages not to run against each other, using "seat adjustments" in a local Left Front to decide who runs where. The CPM vote earned them 30 seats but they got 43, a gain of 10 seats on a mere 3% vote share increase. Their ally the All India Forward Bloc got a vote share earning only one seat, but actually got three. The Samajwadi vote earned them 23 seats but they got 36, a 10-seat increase on only a 13% vote share increase. Samajwadi and their partner the RLD were in a four-cornered race for the 80 seats of Uttar Pradesh, and won 39, almost half, a gain of 11 seats over 1999.

3. Many regional micro-parties also had highly efficient votes. The populist RJD, which governs the state of Bihar, earned eight seats by its vote share, but got 20, a gain of 14 over its last showing. In Tamil Nadu, the DMK earned 10 and won 16. Its ally the PMK earned three and got six, while its other ally the MDMK earned two and got four. In Jharkhand, the JMM earned three and got five. These are all Congress allies, helping it win.

4. The BJP's Orissa ally the BJD earned five and got 11. Their Punjab ally the SAD earned five and got eight. But their other regional allies got creamed.


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Deception
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posted 14 May 2004 10:21 AM      Profile for Deception     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
i guess i'm cautiously optimistic, the congress party ran on a similar platform in the early 70‘s of empowering the dispossessed, forgotten rural poor and failed miserably. but, my optimism originates from this new majority coalition with the communists and socialists who have vociferously criticized the bjp led whoring effect. i guess the peripheral members of the new majority can exercise some checks and balances, hold the congress accountable for their campaign promises.

this election is the most fascinating triumphant in democratic history. it revealed india's two solitudes; the urban setting experiencing the IT instigated boom and the rural populations suffering immensely meanwhile free trade prognosticator’s praised india's for its growth rates from the sidelines of the wto headquarters. under the ostensible proclivity of growth, Vajpayee called an election early forgetting that 80% of indians live in villages omitted from the growth. here are some interesting facts; “ 40% of the rural population in India have the same foodgrain absorption level as sub-Saharan Africa, and 47% of Indian children under three suffer from malnutrition” (Arundhati Roy) . moreover, scores of farmers in south India have been committing suicide, some in protest and thousands more in desperation similar to the phenomenon in south korea. the suicides stem from stringent patent laws being enforced against them and in favour of pariah companies like Monsanto curbing their ability to produce even at subsistence levels. nonetheless, the truth is that the congress was complicit in the meteoritic rise of nascent globalization but they have the ways and means to curtail it now hopefully they have the courage to do so for the sake of indians.


From: front lines of the revolution | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 14 May 2004 10:40 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Congress, for the first time in its history, forged electoral tie-ups at the national level.

quote:
Sonia Gandhi cobbled formidable alliances in states that worked magic for the Congress in the Lok Sabha elections to bag 145 seats despite its vote share coming down by 1.5 per cent from the last elections in 1999.

Another highlight of 2004 polls, which demolished the projections and predictions of all the pollsters, is the strength of "others" which prominently included the CPI (M), Samajwadi Party, CPI and JD (S).

This was because the Left parties, ideologically opposed to the BJP, helped the Congress gain strength as they contested in tandem with secular parties in select states except in their own strongholds of West Bengal and Kerala.

The political environment has become very dynamic and a lot of region-specific factors are coming into play which are getting reflected in the final results.



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posted 14 May 2004 12:45 PM      Profile for NDP Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
What I can't get over is Shivsena's success in Mumbai, a city where over 15% of the population is gay.
From: Cornwall, ON | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Mandos
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posted 14 May 2004 12:50 PM      Profile for Mandos   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Also a large population is Mumbai is Muslim as well. However, IIRC Mumbai has been a long-time Shiv Sena powerbase. Evidently there are a lot of Hindutvoids there.
From: There, there. | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
rasmus
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posted 14 May 2004 01:14 PM      Profile for rasmus   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
It's inspiring that the rural poor voters were able to achieve a success against the urban, global-capitalist, "Hindutva" agenda. However, the Congress is still a spent, effete force on many levels; corruption is its main organizing technique. If the RSS is the omega of hindutva, Congress is the alpha. The tacit, occasionally even explicit, Hindu nationalism of Congress, along with its simplistic, schematic approach to caste and religious equity -- which dovetailed with its clientelist practices -- created the conditions for the rise of the bhajpa.

The Congress doesn't have the political will, the ideas, the organization, or the party culture to fulfill any of the aspirations of the rural poor.

[ 14 May 2004: Message edited by: rasmus raven ]


From: Fortune favours the bold | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
NDP Newbie
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posted 14 May 2004 03:35 PM      Profile for NDP Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by rasmus raven:
It's inspiring that the rural poor voters were able to achieve a success against the urban, global-capitalist, "Hindutva" agenda. However, the Congress is still a spent, effete force on many levels; corruption is its main organizing technique. If the RSS is the omega of hindutva, Congress is the alpha. The tacit, occasionally even explicit, Hindu nationalism of Congress, along with its simplistic, schematic approach to caste and religious equity -- which dovetailed with its clientelist practices -- created the conditions for the rise of the bhajpa.

The Congress doesn't have the political will, the ideas, the organization, or the party culture to fulfill any of the aspirations of the rural poor.

[ 14 May 2004: Message edited by: rasmus raven ]


It has Marxists and lower-caste activist parties to placate though.


From: Cornwall, ON | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
rasmus
malcontent
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posted 14 May 2004 04:13 PM      Profile for rasmus   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Jyoti Basu, on a minister's salary of a few hundred dollars a month, went from no property to owning 30 large and valuable properties dotting Calcutta during his tenure as chief minister of West Bengal. How did that happen, I wonder?

CPM is certainly more progressive than other mainstream electoral formations in India, but it's easy to overstate the difference. They function by clientelism as much as anyone. Even more so do the caste-based parties, which often can be placated by doling out goodies for their constituency.


From: Fortune favours the bold | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
tremble
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posted 14 May 2004 08:58 PM      Profile for tremble        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Hello, I'm new, etc., etc., but I do like going to this message board from time to time, as it seems like an educated group of folks posts regularly here.

Right. I don't know too much about the recent Indian elections, so I read the manifesto of the Congress party. They seem alright to me, although, of course, I do realize that their manifesto is probably not necessarily the most accurate indication of how they will act as a coalition government. I have a few questions, for those who might have answers:

1) is it likely that the current party leader (Ghandi) will be elected prime minister by the party? If not, who might be, and who would make a good leader, in your opinion?

2) given the huge size and population of India, and, from what I understand, a rather fractured and poorly maintained infrastructure, how could the government move towards more equality for the rather large segment of their population living below the poverty line?

3) The current party seems kind of left of centre, and as I understand it (and, as has already been posted), it looks like they will have to form a coalition with parties which are quite a bit more left-wing than they are. Is it likely that they will end up creating more social programs around education and health (and funding those programs appropriately), and isn't that a really momentous task?!?

Um...those are some questions I had. Personally, I'm lukewarm pleased about the results, because at least it isn't any of the awful fundamentalist parties who won, and Congress is going to be pretty closely monitored.


From: Vancouver, BC, Canada | Registered: Aug 2003  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 16 May 2004 03:35 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
A broad alliance or coalition of the Congress and all the left parties has been formed, cheered on by V.P. Singh, a former prime minister and supporter of creating the broadest possible "secular front."
quote:
Congress President Sonia Gandhi is now all set to become the next Prime Minister of the country after being unanimously elected leader of the alliance by her partners, . . senior Congress leader Manmohan Singh told reporters.

The allies held a two-and-a-half hour meeting to work out the Common Minimum Programme . . . CPI (M), CPI, DMK, RJD, Lok Janshakti, NCP, JMM, PDP (Kashmir), TRS, Samajwadi and RLD.

About the Common Minimum Programme, Manmohan Singh said a committee for drafting it had been set up . . . The draft was yet to be completed which had to be approved by all the constituents of the new coalition, he added. . . a coordination committee would be set up and the meeting discussed the Chairmanship and Convenor for it. The name of the coalition was yet to be decided, Singh said.


The article does not do the math, but the named parties have 318 seats of the 543. Congress has 145, the left parties have 103, the Congress regional populist allies have 61, and the Nationalist Congress Party has 9 -- Sonia's old enemies who objected to a "foreign" leader, but are reduced to a few seats in Maharashtra and have now swallowed their objections.

For those who quail at understanding a country of a billion people, here's a way to start.

India has four quarters: North, North-East, West-Central, and South

South India is the part that speaks Dravidian languages. Unlike the rest of India, these are not in the Indo-European language family. The Dravidians also tend to have a bit darker skins, their inheritence from the people who lived in India before the Indo-Aryan migration. They speak Telugu and live in Andhra Pradesh (capital Hyderabad), or Tamil and live in Tamil Nadu (capital Madras), or Kannada and live in Karnataka (capital Bangalore), or Malayalam and live in Kerala. They are about 240 million people.

The North-East includes West Bengal whose capital is Calcutta (Kolkatta), the original capital of British India, next door Bihar, Jharkhand and Orissa, plus Assam and the seven little Hill States. They speak the Indo-European tongue of Bengali, cousin to Hindi, or related regional languages. They are about 280 million people.

The West-Central area includes Mumbai and its state of Maharashtra, plus Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. They speak the Hindi cousins Marathi, Gujarati or Hindi. They are about 240 million.

The North includes Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Kashmir, etc. They speak Hindi or regional variants of it. They are about 330 million.

[ 16 May 2004: Message edited by: Wilfred Day ]


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
rasmus
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posted 16 May 2004 09:21 PM      Profile for rasmus   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Hi tremble, welcome, and sorry no one has answered your post. I'm not going to either, because it seems like work! The easiest way to follow is to check some online S. Asian news source -- Frontline, India Today, Outlook, or Himal.

http://www.himalmag.com/2004/may/?
http://www.outlookindia.com/
http://www.flonnet.com/
http://www.india-today.com/

quote:
The Dravidians also tend to have a bit darker skins, their inheritence from the people who lived in India before the Indo-Aryan migration.

Archaeological evidence suggests the number of Indo-Aryan migrants was small, and their impact on the racial composition of S. Asia negligible. The people of the Indus valley civilization had the same range and distribution of "racial" characteristics as people who inhabit those areas today.


From: Fortune favours the bold | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 17 May 2004 01:26 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The United Progressive Alliance is not sure how united to be.

quote:
NEW DELHI: In what could prove ominous for smooth implementation of policies, the CPM may not bind itself to a common minimum programme. The CPM, which has already begun flexing muscles for getting the new government fashion policies to suit its political interests, today debated the issue at its apex decision making body — the central committee. A significant section, it is learnt, held on to the by-now-familiar view that its acceptance of a common minimum programme will leave it with little elbow room to attack the Congress in its strongholds. Of the 44 seats the party has won, it had contested against the Congress in 41. This has made this powerful section conclude that any close association with the new regime could prove to be politically costly.

The exact debate that could occur within the NDP after the coming federal election. Worth watching.


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
radiorahim
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posted 18 May 2004 03:31 AM      Profile for radiorahim     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Here are the final results according to the "Election World" web page.

Election World - India

[ 18 May 2004: Message edited by: radiorahim ]


From: a Micro$oft-free computer | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
NDP Newbie
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posted 18 May 2004 04:45 AM      Profile for NDP Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I just mad at that Saffron.
Cuz Saffron's just plain mad.
They call me Shiv Sena.

From: Cornwall, ON | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Mandos
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posted 18 May 2004 11:13 AM      Profile for Mandos   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Sonia Gandhi turns the tables yet again, plans not to become the PM:
quote:
NEW DELHI: Congress President Sonia Gandhi has declined to become the Prime Minister despite leading her party to a spectacular comeback in elections, a senior party leader said on Tuesday.

He said she had made known her decision to the party on Monday evening itself.

Sonia, who is being persuaded by senior leaders of her party and the victorious multi-party United Progressive Alliance to change her mind, has apparently recommended Manmohan Singh and Pranab Mukherjee, both senior leaders of her party, for the job.

Senior Congress leaders immediately went into a huddle on Tuesday afternoon and many sounded dispirited over the course of events.



From: There, there. | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
josh
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posted 18 May 2004 11:20 AM      Profile for josh     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Not good news. Singh was the leader of the neo-liberal and privatisation policies the last time Congress was in power. I wonder how long it will be till new elections are held.
From: the twilight zone between the U.S. and Canada | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
Mandos
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posted 18 May 2004 11:22 AM      Profile for Mandos   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
It doesn't really matter, I think, Singh would have operated economic policy anyway under a Sonia PMship. However, this slurps massive wind out of RSS sails. I dislike that it had to be done--she had every right to take the post--but the sheer noise in Indian politics that would have ensued from it would have been detrimental.

Now she gets to play the selfless martyr against the BJP wolves.


From: There, there. | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
Cueball
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posted 19 May 2004 12:33 AM      Profile for Cueball   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Plus she may not have wanted to get assassinated. It is a tradition with her family.
From: Out from under the bridge and out for a stroll | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
DrConway
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posted 19 May 2004 01:01 AM      Profile for DrConway     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Yes, but from what the press is reporting it seems that this is yet another right-wing hatchet job on a leftist government and a successful cutting-at-the-knees to weaken it.
From: You shall not side with the great against the powerless. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Cueball
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posted 19 May 2004 01:04 AM      Profile for Cueball   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Isn't potential assassination the handle of the hatchet?
From: Out from under the bridge and out for a stroll | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Mandos
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posted 19 May 2004 01:28 AM      Profile for Mandos   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Congress cannot really be called "leftist" per se, except from their secularism, which hasn't always been so pure. The BJP antics during this short period (which now look even more idiotic than before) were more about posturing for future leadership positions by Sushma Swaraj and Uma Bharati than about right/left divisions.

The real hobbling would happen if the Communists get shouted down by the markets every time they say something or try to exert influence on Congress who depends on them--as has already happened.


From: There, there. | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
BLAKE 3:16
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posted 19 May 2004 04:47 PM      Profile for BLAKE 3:16     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
India is going to/is already playing a massive role in shaping the world at the moment. I find it really interesting that the most dynamic Third World economies -- India, South Africa, and Brasil all have no longer revolutionary parties in power. I think these three countries, plus Mexico and China are going to be the major centres of struggle. Adolfo Gilly, the Mexican trotskyist, called the Mexican Revolution of 1910-20 "the interrupted revolution". I think all five could be considered as such.

I thought Vandana Shiva's interview on rabble really interesting. Sharon, the editor/babbler, not the Zionist pig, has linked to it.

Could anybody recommend a good left wing book or two on India? I'm quite ignorant, and it seems that all my Indian friends are Punjabi (not that there's anything wrong with that), so I've only been exposed to a little bit of the culture and history.


From: Babylon, Ontario | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 20 May 2004 05:11 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Manmohan Singh: jobs yes, privatization no, reforms with a human face:

quote:
Dwelling at length on the need to have reforms with a human face, Singh said the government would endeavour to realise late Rajiv Gandhi's dream "to make 21st century as India's century."

He said the main stress of reforms would be to provide education, health for all, improve environment, housing for millions of slum dwellers and increase agriculture production.

". . privatization was not part of our ideology and public sector units will not be privatised. . . Similarly, there are nationalised banks which will remain in public sector."

Asked if the Left parties would be an impediment to the reform process, Singh said: "Life is never free from contradictions and the coalition government will try to promote strong and stable government and create relations with allies to fight against poverty, ignorance and disease."

"They (Left parties) are also great patriots," Singh said, adding that he did not foresee any difficulties in pursuing economic policies and moving forward on the basis of the common minimum programme.

Details of the government's economic agenda would be spelt out in the Common Minimum Programme which would be finalised in consultation with the allies in a day or two.

The CMP would be growth-oriented and progressive and create an environment that was investment-friendly.


[ 20 May 2004: Message edited by: Wilfred Day ]


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 20 May 2004 10:41 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Cabinet-making is fun when you have about 219 MPs in at least 12 parties to keep happy. (It was 217 MPs in 12 parties, I'm not sure where the newest two came from, could be 14 parties.)

quote:
By law, the size of the federal Cabinet is restricted to 15 per cent of the 543 directly elected members of the Lok Sabha, the Lower House of Parliament.

That works out to 81 ministers. The outgoing government had just that number.


[ 20 May 2004: Message edited by: Wilfred Day ]


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 22 May 2004 07:12 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
India has a coalition ministry of Congress and 8 allied parties.

The 68 ministers (including 7 Muslims) are made up of a cabinet of 28 (including all the allied parties but the smallest one), 10 Ministers of State with portfolios ("independent charge"), and 30 other ministers of state.

quote:
Manmohan Singh reiterated that his government is committed to the poor, and to secularism. "This is a mandate for strengthening the secular foundation of our republic and to carry forward social and economic change that benefits the poorer sections. We have to ensure that we have in place a development strategy that empowers people and helps realise their potential."

It's funny how critics say proportional representation will lead to splinter parties. It's the opposite: First-Past-The-Post leads to regional parties. It denies effective representation for many supporters of parties whose members are not concentrated in one region, both in Canada and in India. Congress' 8 allies in the coalition ministry are all regional parties, the children of FPTP.

[ 22 May 2004: Message edited by: Wilfred Day ]


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 23 May 2004 05:14 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Cabinet-making has its ironies.

Telengana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) Supremo K Chandrasekhar Rao is the new Shipping Minister.

The TRS is a sub-regional party from a landlocked part of Andhra Pradesh province.

The TRS wants a separate state for Telengana, the 10 districts around and north of Hyderabad.

Like the Swiss Navy, the Telengana shipping industry leaves a lot to the imagination.

In November 1956 the Telugu-speaking Telengana area of Nizam’s Hyderabad state was merged with Coastal Andhra (Visakhapatnam, Vijayawada, etc.), also Telugu-speaking, to create Andhra Pradesh. The hope was that being part of a large unilingual state would cement the Telugu people culturally, politically and economically. At that time certain Telengana Congress leaders, as also the States Reorganization Commission, had some reservations about the merger because of Telengana being relatively more underdeveloped, its level of development being nearly half that of the coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh.

[ 24 May 2004: Message edited by: Wilfred Day ]


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
rabble-rouser
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posted 24 May 2004 10:05 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
A different perspective on the role of the state:

Congress party secretary and strategist Jairam Ramesh explains it all.

quote:
You really do require a public sector in some areas but you don’t need a public sector to run airlines, to run hotels, make bread, make soft drinks but you do require a smaller... Well, . . the airlines are still there.

For many years, I have been advocating a venture capitalist role for the public sector. The public sector comes in, starts a project, gets it off the ground and you know, sells it off. The competitive advantage of the public sector is to start new projects. The competitive advantage of the private sector is to run them commercially . . . for example, power distribution is clearly an area where the private sector must take on a larger role. But power generation is an area in which the public sector will continue to play an important role.

I came to privatisation not out of any ideological conviction, let me say, I came to reform the public sector purely out of pragmatic reasons. Having worked in the government for 15-20 years ... the only answer to reform is privatisation while keeping a small, selective, strategic public sector perhaps, in the oil industry, perhaps in areas like power generation.

Arun Shourie . . became overly aggressive, he became a jehad. He carried out a jehad against the public sector. I think you need to be a little more careful of what you want to privatise, how you want to privatise.



From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 29 May 2004 03:28 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The UPA government's Common Minimum Programme has finally been released, in its sixth draft.

The full text of an earlier draft is on the net.

After final revisions, the interesting points for Canadians seem to be:

The UPA government will take the lead to introduce legislation for reservations for women in vidhan sabhas and in the Lok Sabha. [This means one-third of all ridings in all state legislatures and the national parliament will be for women candidates only.]

Given the abuse of POTA [Prevention Of Terrorism Act] that has taken place, the UPA government will repeal it.

Even as it pursues closer strategic and economic engagement with the USA, the UPA government will maintain the independence of India’s foreign policy stance on all regional and global issues. The UPA government is committed to fostering multi-polarity in the world political and economic system "and oppose all attempts at unilaterism" [as the Left insisted.] On requirement by the Left they added "The UPA is committed to deepening ties with Russia and Europe."

A National Employment Guarantee Act. This will provide a legal guarantee for at least 100 days of employment on asset-creating public works programmes every year at minimum wage in every rural and [added by the Left] "urban poor and lower middle-class household."

The UPA reiterates its abiding commitment to economic reforms with a human face, that stimulates growth, investment and employment. Further reforms are needed and will be carried out in agriculture, industry and services. The UPA’s economic reforms will be oriented primarily to spreading and deepening rural prosperity, to significantly improving the quality of public systems and delivery of public services, to bringing about a visible and tangible difference in the quality of life of ordinary citizens of our country.

Profit-making companies not to be privatised. All privatisation on transparent, consultative basis. [A compromise wording.] Chronically loss-making companies will either be sold—off, or closed, after all workers have got their legitimate dues and compensation. The UPA will induct private industry to turn-around companies that have potential for revival.

The UPA government is committed to the public sector strategy articulated by the Congress during 1991-96 and by the UF during 1996-98 when Shri Murasoli Maran was the Industry Minister. The UPA government is committed to a strong and effective public sector, whose social objectives are met by its commercial functioning. But for this, there is need for selectivity and a strategic focus. The UPA is pledged to devolve full managerial and commercial autonomy to successful, profit-making companies operating in a competitive environment.

The UPA government believes that privatization should increase competition, not decrease it. It also believes that there must be a direct link between privatization and social needs—-like, for example, the use of privatization revenues for designated social sector schemes. Public sector companies and nationalized banks will be encouraged to enter the capital market to raise resources and offer new investment avenues to retail investors.

The UPA government will ensure that all funds for poverty alleviation and rural development programmes will be credited directly to panchayat [local council] bodies. However, in the final draft this became "only after consultation with the state." Just like Canada, by-passing the provinces is a no-no.

Some changes in labour laws may be required but such changes must fully protect the interests of workers. [Another compromise wording.]

The UPA will actively encourage and foster public-private partnerships in the expansion of physical infrastructure like roads, highways, ports, power, railways, water supply and sanitation. Public investment in infrastructure will be enhanced, even as the role of the private sector is expanded in areas like power distribution, for instance.

The UPA government commits itself to a comprehensive programme of urban renewal and to a massive expansion of social housing in towns and cities, paying particular attention to the needs of slum dwellers. Housing for the weaker sections in rural areas will be expanded on a large scale.

The UPA government will take immediate steps to reverse the trend of communalization [= hindu fundamentalism] of education that had set in the past five years.

The UPA will pay special attention to augmenting and modernizing rural infrastructure, consisting of roads, irrigation, electrification, cold-chain and marketing outlets. Household electrification will be completed in five years.

"The Congress, its pre-poll allies that include the RJD, DMK, NCP, PMK, TRS, JMM, LJP, MDMK, AIMIM, PDP, IUML, RPI(A), RPI(G) and the KC(J) have come together to form a United Progressive Alliance." The four Left parties are mentioned in a separate sentence that said the group will support the alliance.

[ 29 May 2004: Message edited by: Wilfred Day ]


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
elixir
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posted 13 June 2004 11:14 AM      Profile for elixir     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Could anybody recommend a good left wing book or two on India?

I like Achin Vanaik's books "The painful transition" and "Furies of communalism", although the first "theory" sections in both are tough to get through. I also like a new book by Vivek Chibber "Locked in Place", where he compares India's development woes with South Korea's success.

Vanaik and Praful Bidwai have a number of pieces sprinkled across the Internet.

(I have a Punjabi stepfather but the rest of my family is from the south. I hope that is OK!)


From: Toronto | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged

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