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Author Topic: Costa Rica: Election cliffhanger
rici
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posted 06 February 2006 01:19 AM      Profile for rici     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
For insomniac election-junkies:

Although US press outlets were quick to award victory to Nobel prize winner Oscar Arias, the actual election results currently dribbling in are far from definitive. ABC declared Arias the winner shortly after the polls closed based on exit polls indicating that he had beaten Ottón Solis 45% to 37%.

However, with half the votes counted, the difference between the two presidential candidates is just 3,500 votes, about 0.4%.

A key election issue was CAFTA, the Central America Free Trade Agreement. Arias wants to see the deal signed, while Solis rejects the deal in its current form, which he feels will hurt Costa Rican farmers.

Arias' party, Liberación Nacional, appears to be slated to win 25 of the 57 seats in congress.

Watch the results here (in Spanish, but it's pretty easy to figure out)


From: Lima, Perú | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
faith
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posted 06 February 2006 02:10 AM      Profile for faith     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Those results are close! Will there be possible alliances between different parties? There seems to be quite a few possibilities for creating a block of support to achieve the balance of power.
From: vancouver | Registered: Aug 2003  |  IP: Logged
Albireo
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posted 06 February 2006 02:14 AM      Profile for Albireo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I take it that the Presidential race is just first-past-the-post? A shame if so, with 2 candidates virtually tied at about 40%.
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faith
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posted 06 February 2006 02:35 AM      Profile for faith     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Is this just a presidential election? When I saw the parties listed and the number of seats mentioned I assumed the election was creating a president along with a parliament.
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rici
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posted 06 February 2006 10:04 AM      Profile for rici     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Still too close to call; we won't have the official results until tomorrow, and there is likely to be a very close scrutiny of the votes. With 85% of the votes counted, Arias's apparent margin had started to drop again, to 0.39% (40.59% to 40.20%).

Costa Rican election laws require a second vote between the two top runners only if the winner fails to achieve 40%, unlike most countries where a second ballot is required if the winner fails to achieve an absolute majority of valid votes.

The congress, which comprises 57 deputies, is elected by a proportional representation system with separate lists in each of the seven provinces. The PLN (Arias's party and a member of the Socialist International) appears to have won 25 seats against 18 for Solis's PAC. Both parties are essentially centrist. The right-wing Libertarian Party, whose candidate Otto Guevara won about 8.5% of the presidential vote, will probably be represented by 6 deputies, while the devasted PUSC (the current governing party) will be reduced to 4 or 5.

Costa Rica is the only country in the CAFTA negotiations which has not yet ratified the free trade treaty. Although Arias strongly favours ratification, the surprisingly close presidential vote and PLN's failure to achieve a congressional majority leave the issue still in question. No-one is making any statements until tomorrow when the election results are clearer.

[ 06 February 2006: Message edited by: Rici Lake ]


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Stockholm
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posted 06 February 2006 10:58 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I guess that if there was a run-off Arias would probably win since the 3rd candidate with 8% is a rightwing Libertarian.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
rici
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posted 06 February 2006 02:19 PM      Profile for rici     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
In a press conference, Oscar Arias said that if elected, he would have to think seriously about the half of Costa Ricans who did not support him.

quote:
"Realmente deberé aplicar el lema de mi campaña que dice 'Soy todo oídos'. Soy una persona negociadora, conciliadora."

"I will really have to apply the slogan of my campaign -- 'I'm all ears'. I'm a negotiator, a conciliator.


Despite his support of CAFTA, Arias is far from a Bushite; in fact, he likes to compare himself with Bill Clinton.

A poll last year indicated that 70% of Costa Ricans wanted CAFTA to be put to a referendum.


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Vigilante
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posted 06 February 2006 02:50 PM      Profile for Vigilante        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Despite his support of CAFTA, Arias is far from a Bushite; in fact, he likes to compare himself with Bill Clinton.

That is a pretty severe difference.


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josh
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posted 06 February 2006 06:03 PM      Profile for josh     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
It's not as severe as you think. At least when it comes to domestic policy. And Clinton was both a CAFTA and NAFTA supporter.
From: the twilight zone between the U.S. and Canada | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
rici
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posted 06 February 2006 06:45 PM      Profile for rici     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Clinton was both a CAFTA and NAFTA supporter.

Indeed, as does Arias. And Solis says he supported the CAFTA initiative, too; however, he believes that the CAFTA which was negotiated will damage Costa Rica.

In practice, it seems incredibly unlikely that the US will renegotiate CAFTA even if Solis wins. But the surprise result definitely sends a message to the three countries currently negotiating the Andean Free Trade Agreement with the United States (Perú, Colombia and Ecuador), all of which have elections this year.

As for Costa Rica, the country appears to be in a sort of electoral comma, if not semi-colon. The Costa Rican Election Tribunal has decided to recount all million presidential ballots one-by-one, promising an official results within 15 days. As of a couple of hours ago, the preliminary results showed a difference of just 3,250 votes based on 88.5% of the polls.


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Vigilante
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posted 06 February 2006 07:04 PM      Profile for Vigilante        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I was being sarcastic
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Fidel
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posted 06 February 2006 10:45 PM      Profile for Fidel     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Vigilante:
I was being sarcastic

How come we never see you attempting to pull off sarcasm in a thread about Haiti or right-wing repression ?.

Btw, are there any junior anarchists in Zambia where the King rides around in expensive cars and 40 percent of the adult population is infected with AIDS ?. How about East Timor ? El Salvador ? Guatemala ?. Get on your bikes and head out on the PanAm Highway. Lookin for adventure, in whatever comes V and Morpheus' way. Ya gotta go make it happen, take the world in a love embrace, =Fire all of the guns at once and explode into spaaaace!


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robbie_dee
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posted 06 February 2006 10:46 PM      Profile for robbie_dee     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
The Costa Rican Election Tribunal has decided to recount all million presidential ballots one-by-one, promising an official results within 15 days.

Wow, what a crazy idea. It seems so... fair. If Arias accepts it, that puts him another notch above Bush, doesn't it?


From: Iron City | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
Vigilante
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posted 09 February 2006 03:41 AM      Profile for Vigilante        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Is Fidel under the impression that I support what is happening in Haiti?
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Fidel
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posted 12 February 2006 03:02 AM      Profile for Fidel     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Vigilante:
Is Fidel under the impression that I support what is happening in Haiti?

I'm not under much of an impression of you at all.


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Cueball
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posted 12 February 2006 04:05 AM      Profile for Cueball   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by josh:
It's not as severe as you think. At least when it comes to domestic policy. And Clinton was both a CAFTA and NAFTA supporter.

Brainlock. I know that it is a big deal for some people what kind of suit the presidential contenders wear, and trying to devine how those differences reflect the real policies differences between the two "contenders" -- a subject which requires more or less the kind of babbling usually heard by those listening at the back flap of Mrs. Zoros tent while she reads tead leafs at the county fair -- but some people are begining to think that the bikini contest is not the main show.


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rici
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posted 22 February 2006 01:45 PM      Profile for rici     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
After two weeks of laborious recounting, Costa Rica's electoral commission (TSE) is expected to announce the final presidential count today. Less than 5% of the polls were still unverified at the start of the day.

In addition to the recount, the TSE must deal with more than 500 challenges before announcing the official results.

As of last night, Óscar Arias was leading by some 10,000 votes. Since all of the polls being recounted today are from the same district, in which Arias has a significant advantage over Ottón Solís, it seems likely that Arias will be declared the victor.

What this means for the future of CAFTA is less clear. The treaty is currently before the Costarican Legistature's Committee on International Relations, which some time ago announced that no decision would be made until the election results were clear. The TLC was a key campaign issue, and Solís's vote, which was much higher than predicted by opinion polls, is a clear indication of popular opposition to the TLC.


From: Lima, Perú | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
Alan Avans
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posted 22 February 2006 02:04 PM      Profile for Alan Avans   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Rici Lake:

Despite his support of CAFTA, Arias is far from a Bushite; in fact, he likes to compare himself with Bill Clinton.

I met Arias a few years ago and he struck me as being a very thoughtful and humane person, though I disagreed somewhat with his presentation on global trade and economic development in the global south. A good man...but he's not quite an Olaf Palme or a Willy Brandt. And somebody could give him just a little of what Chavez has....or even a dose of pre-presidential Lula.


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M. Spector
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posted 25 February 2006 01:50 AM      Profile for M. Spector   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Arias has won the Costa Rican presidential election by 18,167 votes, one of the country's closest races ever.
From: One millihelen: The amount of beauty required to launch one ship. | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
radiorahim
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posted 25 February 2006 03:31 AM      Profile for radiorahim     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Here's a link to the story in the "Tico Times"...the English language weekly.

Tico Times Online article


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robbie_dee
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posted 14 March 2006 01:30 PM      Profile for robbie_dee     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Otton Solis concedes (BBC 3/4/06)

quote:
Nobel Peace Prize winner Oscar Arias is to become Costa Rica's president for the second time, after his rival in a close-fought election conceded defeat.

An election was held nearly a month ago, but Otton Solis has only now given up after losing a manual recount and a series of legal challenges.

Mr Arias is committed to taking Costa Rica into a controversial free trade pact with the United States.

His prize was for leading talks to end two 1980s Central American civil wars.

Mr Arias, 65, had enjoyed a big lead over his rival in opinion polls.

But far from the easy victory that had been predicted for him, the election on 5 February became Costa Rica's hardest-fought vote in the last four decades, with the two leading candidates virtually neck-and-neck.


[ 14 March 2006: Message edited by: robbie_dee ]


From: Iron City | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
rici
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posted 16 March 2006 04:17 PM      Profile for rici     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The TSE finally finished the manual count for the Legislative Assembly. The final results are not that different from the predicted results, in which no party has a majority.

PLN (Óscar Arias' party): 25
PAC (Ótton Solís): 17
Movimiento Libertario: 6
PUSC (previous government): 5
and one each for:
Accesibilidad sin Exclusión (party of people with disabilities)
Restauración Nacional (evangelical)
Frente Amplio (left)
Unión Nacional

Of the 57 legislators, 22 are women (38.6%)


From: Lima, Perú | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged

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