quote:

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This raises the possibility that a further Liberal Democrat surge in 2005, and a poor Conservative performance, may leave the Liberal Democrats as the leading alternative government when Labor becomes terminally unpopular. The Liberal Democrats are now left of Labor on economics, and strongly pro-EU, a position shared by almost none of the British public, but this may not be a problem for them.

If Howard continues to surrender the Conservative position on Europe, and the Conservatives are weakened by another electoral defeat, then the Liberal Democrats and the Blair government may with the help of the massively pro-Europe broadcast media succeed in marginalizing Europe as an electoral issue, so that anti-Europeanism becomes seen as the refuge of the cranky and the ancient. Labor (minus Blair, whom the chattering classes have never really liked) and the Liberal Democrats can then divide the political spoils between them, perhaps cementing their power by a "constitutional reform" introducing proportional representation, ensuring that election of a majority Conservative government becomes impossible.

In that event, Britain's public spending, already moving sharply up towards the EU average, will rapidly come to match it or even exceed it, and Britain will take its place, with a sclerotic economy, a huge public sector, tiny armed forces and a neutralist, anti-U.S. foreign policy, securely within the ranks of Old Europe.

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the article is widely off the mark in that it implies that michael howard could end up in this position due to weakening/conceding the conservative position on europe.

sure, poll after poll show that 2/3 of brits don't want to enter the euro. as well, there was a surge of anti-european sentiment with the recent 2004 european elections (a star candidate for the UK Independence Party was a former TV talk-show host).

however, it can't be the most important issue for most brits, since the conservatives still trail labour (despite the conservatives changing their leader three times during blair's time as labour leader, despite 7 years of labour over-promising and under-performing, despite iraq, despite a pathetic national train system, etc).

over-and-over, public services are most important and the economy are most important, and the conservatives are not yet credible on either.