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Topic: South Africa Ten Years On...
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Stephen Gordon
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4600
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posted 28 March 2004 04:08 PM
Where did that statistic come from? When you look at data on South African GDP and population growth, real GDP per capita had an average growth rate of 0.5% per year. Not anything to brag about, but nothing anywhere near a reduction of 30% over this period.The data from the Penn World Tables are: code:
Penn World Tables 6.1COL0 - YEAR COL1 - South Africa/REAL GDP PER CAPITA (CONSTANT PRICE: LASPEYRES) (unit ) COL0 COL1 1990 7786.3553694 1991 7599.9164486 1992 7343.2467881 1993 7298.8335289 1994 7250.5273486 1995 7222.4404323 1996 7429.2263529 1997 7507.1742463 1998 7437.314591 1999 7460.0663942 2000 7541.0962741
The real problems took place before 1994. [ 28 March 2004: Message edited by: Oliver Cromwell ]
From: . | Registered: Oct 2003
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DrConway
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 490
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posted 28 March 2004 04:25 PM
GDP per capita is not always a good reflector of how well the national income (or national production) is distributed.An example that was actually used in my economics class was: just because Saudi Arabia has a GDP per capita comparable to Canada's does not mean that they all live in nice houses with clean water like we do, for the most part - it is, after all, well-known that Saudi Arabia's oil wealth largely accrues to the royal family, with dribs and drabs for the majority population. Further, your table shows that GDP per capita has remained relatively stagnant over the 1990s. By contrast, a country like the USA has found that its per capita GDP has been increasing quite handily. A better measure of the problems or benefits facing South Africans is to look at the real wage. [ 28 March 2004: Message edited by: DrConway ]
From: You shall not side with the great against the powerless. | Registered: May 2001
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Stephen Gordon
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4600
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posted 28 March 2004 04:58 PM
Found someHere are the average annual increases in nominal wages in various sectors: Agriculture, forestry and fishing: 7.5% Mining and quarrying: 8.25% Manufacturing: 7.4% Construction: 5.8% Retail/hotel/restaurant: 8.8% Govt sector: 9.3% The average rate of CPI inflation over this period was 6.3% Clearly, these averages can be masking cross-sectional variations, but some people are seeing gains in the real purchasing power of their wages.
From: . | Registered: Oct 2003
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Boinker
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 664
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posted 28 March 2004 09:27 PM
See March issue of Monthly Review - "From Racial to Class Apartheid: South Africa's Frustrating Decade of Freedom" by Patrick Bond.He says, "according to the government's own figures black african household income (1995 - 2000) fell 19% (to $3,714 per year), while white household income rose 15% (to $22,600 per year)." That is black income was 23% of white income and is now 16% of white income, a 26% relative decrease. This is another capitalist solution? ANC Illusions [ 28 March 2004: Message edited by: Boinker ]
From: The Junction | Registered: May 2001
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Stephen Gordon
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4600
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posted 28 March 2004 10:48 PM
Hmm. I've been rummaging around a bit, and I see that employment took a huge hit in 1997-98. So even if wages stayed steady, a lot of households would have been badly hurt.I don't know enough (more precisely, I know nothing) about what happened in SA in 1997-98, so I can't speculate about causes. It's odd that it doesn't show up in the GDP per capita numbers, though. Edited to add: Oh. It does. But it picks up pretty quickly after. Employment is still low, though. The glass-half-full story would be about an marked increase in worker productivity. The glass-half-empty story would be the marginalisation of low-skilled black workers - which would mean that huge efforts in education and training are required. [ 28 March 2004: Message edited by: Oliver Cromwell ]
From: . | Registered: Oct 2003
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Rufus Polson
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3308
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posted 28 March 2004 10:57 PM
I haven't seen anything on any of the links which says anything about statistical shrinkage in the income of an average family. However, I can envision two bases for such a claim that does not contradict any of the data that's been brought forward. Not saying they're so, just mentioning. First, it seems as if unemployment and "informal" labour have increased considerably; I see claims that more than half the population is in that situation. Does average income include those people? Certainly it would limit the relevance of wage increases in formal employment sectors if most people aren't in formal employment at all. Second, the initial claim related to "an average family". Now, the average income isn't necessarily the income of an average family--for that, you may want median income, which does shift when income distribution shifts put more money in the hands of a small number at the top and less in everyone else's. Finally, I find family and household income a potentially misleading measure. A household made up of two parents, no kids with upper-middle-class jobs may have the same income as a household made up of half a dozen students and/or immigrants with lousy jobs pooling their rent money. But I would consider the DINKs more prosperous. Seems to me that if the economy starts to suck ass, more people are quite likely to group together like that to help ends meet, but household income statistics rarely give any indications that would let you tell if it's happening or not.
From: Caithnard College | Registered: Nov 2002
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Boinker
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 664
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posted 29 March 2004 09:05 PM
The author of the article did not give a specific source but this is very familiar stuff when the IMF gets involved with "nation building". Things get worse.Take water and eletricity as an example. The IMF requires that these things be privatized without providing the means by which the poor can obtain these necessities. Here is a link that discusses the problems: Municipal Services Project quote: Different service models and policies can have dramatically different health outcomes. They can determine who gets access to a service and who does not, and whether the stated health goals of a government will be supported by, or undermined by, a municipal service delivery programme.
quote: The privatization of services and housing delivery, for example, has led to problems of accessibility and affordability in some cases, while cost recovery measures have resulted in the cutting off of water and electricity to several million households in South Africa in the past few years.
quote: African areas remain the most under-serviced, with approximately two-thirds of African households living without access to electricity, flush toilets, refuse removal or indoor plumbing. Service delivery tends to be better in coloured and Asian areas, but overcrowded and dilapidated public housing remains prevalent in these communities - as do an increasing number of informal settlements with little or no service delivery
quote: Mental health is adversely affected by the lack of adequate services, as the drudgery of dirty, treeless streets wears on the psyche of young and old alike.
There are some positive conclusions but again it is difficult to feel confident that ANC has enough remaining political smarts necessary to adequately critique and parry IMF demands.
From: The Junction | Registered: May 2001
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Stephen Gordon
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4600
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posted 29 March 2004 10:26 PM
This is probably how the IMF sees the situation:- The infrastructure for delivering water to the rural poor is either nonexistent or falling apart. - Rectifying this situation requires significant capital investment. - Public sector finances are strained (otherwise the IMF wouldn't even be involved). Since the SA govt isn't in a position to undertake the investments required *and* to run the system at a loss, the choices seem to be: a) Do nothing. b) See if the private sector is willing to give it a try. The IMF suggests b). I'm sure they - and the people of South Africa - would be extremely interested in more attractive alternatives.
From: . | Registered: Oct 2003
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Rufus Polson
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3308
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posted 30 March 2004 02:30 AM
quote: Originally posted by Oliver Cromwell: This is probably how the IMF sees the situation:
It is unlikely that is how the IMF sees the situation. Mr. Cromwell, economics is one thing, politics another. The IMF is about the latter. To find out how the IMF, and the World Bank, see situations, you need to concentrate on things like the disparities between their own reports, which describe the major problems caused by their past interventions and make recommendations about how they should change their approach, and their actions, which continue to take the same approaches their own reports have indicted. Looking closely, it is difficult to resist the conclusion that the IMF and World Bank are not in the business of improving the economies of third world countries; they are in the business of maximizing the profits first world businesses can extract from third world countries. IMF official rationales for privatization tend to focus on the theoretical efficiency of the private sector more than on whether the public sector is in a position to make the investment. And in any case of water privatization, I have yet to see any instance of the new private sector owners investing in the infrastructure. Quite the reverse--every case I have heard of, from England to Bolivia, the infrastructure has gotten worse. After all, why spend a bunch of money extending infrastructure to places where the locals can't pay your sky-high rates?
From: Caithnard College | Registered: Nov 2002
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Boinker
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 664
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posted 31 March 2004 08:21 AM
quote: Public-Public Partnerships (PuPs) A final research gap that will be explored in the second phase of the Project is what is increasingly being referred to as public-public partnerships (PuPs). As the term implies, the emphasis with PuPs is on maintaining public control and public ownership of services and infrastructure, while at the same time revamping conventional models of public service by expanding the role of labour, community organizations and other public and government stakeholders in the planning, implementation and financing of services. The trend in Southern Africa, by contrast, has been towards public-private partnerships (PPPs), a model that promotes an increased role for private firms and private finance in the delivery of services. With considerable institutional and financial support from organizations such as the World Bank and USAID there has been a significant increase in the number of PPPs in the region over the past ten years. PuPs, on the other hand, have received very little support from the state or from donors with only two PuPs having been implemented in South Africa since 1994 and no PuPs having been developed in any other SADC countries. There is, however, a growing interest in PuPs amongst labour, civic, NGO and governmental organizations in the region and internationally. Very little is know about the possible health benefits of PuPs or what the experience has been on the health front in cities/countries that have introduced PuPs in the past. These issues will be examined in the second phase of the Project.
This is a fascinating alternative that might work well in Canada as well...
From: The Junction | Registered: May 2001
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