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Musharraf survived two assassination attempts in December, and domestic pressure on him has increased in direct proportion to his increasing support for the US. The sudden empowerment of Pakistan’s top national hero, known to the masses simply as “A.Q.”, could have results far worse for America than have any of Schoolboy Bush’s previous experiments sticking his hand into beehives.

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After all, now that we are allegedly so close to capturing the world’s most wanted terrorist, why sacrifice still more taxpayer millions so that OBL’s local protectors can cash in doubly? Indeed, to paraphrase Sean Connery in Entrapment, “what can they do with fifty million dollars that they can’t do with twenty-five?”

Well, the answer is quite a lot, if the “they” in question are indeed members of the world’s most formidable terrorist organization. $25 million could make the difference between four hijackings or two, between ten suitcase bombs or five. At this stage in the game, anyone in a position to know about bin Laden’s whereabouts can’t be someone to whom we would like to entrust 50 million dollars.

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In short, if the Pakistani government were to fall, the US could be confronted overnight by a populous and nuclear-armed state more dangerous than five Irans or North Koreas. The knock-on effects would involve the further destabilization of Afghanistan and cause nuclear-armed India onto an immediate and perhaps irreversible war footing.

Leaning so heavily on Musharraf, just so that George Bush can ensure his re-election is a very bad gamble. It might well fail in its stated aim (capturing bin Laden) and in its unstated goals- to shore up Bush’s popularity while allowing lawmakers to display their phony patriotism with such gimmicks as the $50 million in cash and prizes trick.

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A Bush Administration intelligence officer with years of experience in nonproliferation issues told me last month, “One thing we do know is that this was not a rogue operation. Suppose Edward Teller had suddenly decided to spread nuclear technology and equipment around the world. Do you really think he could do that without the government knowing? How do you get missiles from North Korea to Pakistan? Do you think A.Q. shipped all the centrifuges by Federal Express? The military has to be involved, at high levels.”

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One of Musharraf’s most vocal critics inside Pakistan is retired Army Lieutenant General Hamid Gul, a fundamentalist Muslim who directed the I.S.I. from 1987 to 1989, at the height of the Afghan war with the Soviets. If American troops start operating from Pakistan, there will be “a rupture in the relationship,” Gul told me. “Americans think others are slaves to them.” Referring to the furor over A. Q. Khan, he added, “We may be in a jam, but we are a very honorable nation. We will not allow the American troops to come here. This will be the breaking point.” If Musharraf has made an agreement about letting American troops operate in Pakistan, Gul said, “he’s lying to you.”

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Two former C.I.A. operatives with firsthand knowledge of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border areas said that the American assault, if it did take place, would confront enormous logistical problems. “It’s impenetrable,” said Robert Baer, who visited the Hindu Kush area in the early nineties, before he was assigned to lead the C.I.A.’s anti-Saddam operations in northern Iraq. “There are no roads, and you can’t get armor up there. This is where Alexander the Great lost an entire division. The Russians didn’t even bother to go up there. Everybody’s got a gun. That area is worse than Iraq.” Milton Bearden, who ran the C.I.A.’s operations in Afghanistan during the war with the Soviet Union, recounted, “I’ve been all through there. The Pashtun population in that belt has lived there longer than almost any other ethnic group has lived anywhere on earth.” He said, “Our intelligence has got to be better than it’s been. Anytime we go into something driven entirely by electoral politics, it doesn’t work out.”

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Meanwhile, a senior Pakistani army officer told The Associated Press that an American helicopter fired rockets at a car in the Alawarai Mandi district of North Waziristan (Pakistan,) just less than two kilometres from the Afghan border. Three people inside were injured, the officer said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

He said it was not clear if the Americans were after a specific target or knew they had crossed into Pakistani territory. The area is about 40 kilometres north of the fighting in South Waziristan.

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This weekend, the battle was still raging. Dug in among the rocks and desiccated fields, several hundred Pakistani regulars, soldiers from the elite Special Services Group and the secretive ISI spy service, helped by 12 American 'technical experts', were last night watching and waiting near the bullet-ridden farmhouses, looking for shadows.

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The military called a temporary cease-fire while it held a jirga, or traditional tribal council, of all regional tribes in the town of Wana, said Brig. Mehmood Shah, the security chief in Pakistan's tribal areas. It was agreed at the meeting, he said, that elders would try to mediate a surrender of the armed militants and the release of some 14 soldiers and government officials they are holding hostage.

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A very dubious success. Sounds more like, you give up your wounded, we let you sneak away and we get our people back, or something like that.

[ 22 March 2004: Message edited by: Cueball ]

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She said in an interview to be published Tuesday that French troops operating near Afghanistan (news - web sites)'s border with Pakistan had helped trace bin Laden but did not say where, how wide an area she was

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However, a convoy heading for the town of Wana to support the operation against the militants was ambushed by fighters with rockets. "There were 12 dead and 22 wounded," one government official told Reuters. "The army has blocked the road from both ends and no one is allowed to go in." There was no information on casualties among the attackers.

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