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"Montenegro votes for independence", the headlines declared at the result of the referendum in the Balkan republic. But is independence really what lies in store? My dictionary has independence as: "completely self-governing; not subject to or showing the influence of others". By this definition, independence is not what they will be getting.

The most important political and economic decisions, which will affect the everyday lives of citizens in the republic, will not be made in its capital, Podgorica, but in Brussels, Geneva and Washington and the boardrooms of the multinational companies which now dominate the country's economy.

....

Nato membership, which Montenegro is also expected to pursue enthusiastically, has similar consequences: the commanders of Montenegro's new army and navy will have to get used to taking orders from those who planned the 78-day bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999.

Then there is the role of the IMF and the World Bank. These two unelected bodies have, with the EU, sought to impose Thatcherite neo-liberal solutions on Serbia-Montenegro, ever since the fall of Yugoslavia's Socialist-led government in 2000. Thousands of socially owned enterprises have already been privatised, but the west is still not satisfied - the IMF has made further economic help dependent on Belgrade selling off the valuable NIS oil company.

Montenegro's tiny economy is even more dominated by foreign capital than Serbia's, with the privatisation process having started much earlier. The selling off of nationally owned assets will have serious implications for the country's future economic viability and even with the tourist potential of its attractive coastline, it is difficult to see how Montenegro can afford to pay its way, without further surrender to western financial institutions. In doing so, it will be following the path of its neighbours.

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Pyotr Iskenderov, Institute of Slavic Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, for RIA Novosti

Montenegro's secession from Serbia-Montenegro has become one more landmark in the endless disintegration of the former Yugoslavia. Luckily, this landmark was not tragic (as has often been the case in the Balkans), but more in the genre of a farce. This impression was reinforced by multi-thousand rallies - champions of independence of a tiny alpine republic (as if they were celebrating liberation from centuries-long foreign yoke), and by endless disputes on the existence of a separate Montenegrin nation, and even language (the most zealous advocates of Montenegro's own road in history conveniently forgot that all great rulers of the Montenegro Principality of the 19th-early 20th century proudly declared that they continued the traditions of the Serbian medieval statehood).

In effect, last Sunday Montenegro citizens simply voted for the withdrawal from a state entity which had existed mostly on paper in recent years. Serbia and Montenegro shared only two ministries (foreign and defense), and the President (whose post was even more decorative than similar positions in both republics, where the real power belongs to the heads of state). Everything else -- currency, customs and tax legislation, and state symbols already existed in Montenegro before May 21. For this reason, the words of the father of Montenegro's independence, Milo Djukanovic, to the effect that "in compliance with the decision of Montenegrins... we have obtained our own state," are somewhat exaggerated.

*snip
Agim Ceku, Prime Minister of Kosovo and the former Commander of its Liberation Army, has already promised that by the end of the year, the Kosovars and the Montenegrins will be standing shoulder to shoulder in the friendly European family, and that these two new states will "become a major factor of stability in the entire region."

Will the recognition of Montenegro's independence help the Albanian separatists in Kosovo achieve their goal? The answer to this question in unequivocal. On the one hand, the preamble to the UN Security Council Resolution #1244 of June 10, 1999 (which remains an international legal foundation of Kosovo settlement and the activities of the Contact Group with Russia's participation) lists Kosovo as part of the Union Republic of Yugoslavia (which was legally succeeded by the now dead Serbia-Montenegro state entity). The same preamble speaks about the UN commitment to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Union Republic of Yugoslavia and other states of the region. Hence, Kosovo does not seem to be entitled to do as Montenegro did on May 21.

On the other hand, the road following which Montenegro has obtained (or reaffirmed, if you wish) its independence has nothing in common with the way chosen by the ethnic Albanian extremists from Kosovo. The referendum was conducted in line with the Constitutional Charter drafted by the European Union and approved in 2003 by the parliament of both Montenegro, and, importantly, Serbia. Hence, Belgrade agreed from the very start to accept any result of the referendum and the subsequent steps of the Montenegro leaders.

As for Kosovo, there is no such document, and its appearance is highly unlikely. The Serbian leaders are emphatically opposed to the independence of Kosovo, and its entry as a sovereign state into key international institutions like the UN or the EU. Thus, the solution of the Kosovo problem is irrelevant to the Serbian consent with the proclamation of independence following a hypothetical all-Kosovo referendum (the current Albanian majority has largely formed due to massive anti-Serbian purges, launched de facto back in 1998). It has to be based on compromise. But unlike Belgrade, the Kosovo Albanians are reluctant to search for it, while the world community, which is now praising the political conscience and restraint of Montenegrins, does not seem to have grasped that the Kosovo Albanians are following their own - bloody and violent - road to Europe.

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This is basically a direct result of a decade of Western efforts to destroy the multiethnic Yugoslav federation. Well, what do yaknow - they suceeded.
Now, the EU will use this as a precedent to tear 95% Albanian Kosovo away from Serbia.
Sure dont mind these 5% minorities anyway, soon there wont be any left. It helps to know that before the Nazi invasion, Kosovo was majority Serb.

[ 24 May 2006: Message edited by: BetterRed ]

[ 24 May 2006: Message edited by: BetterRed ]

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Optimism is growing in Serbia-Montenegro that a strong World Cup showing is not beyond them.

It is likely to be the last time the team competes under this name, after Montenegro's vote for independence on 21 May.

And a successful World Cup is something the country desperately needs.

People are tired of the continuing political instability and wall-to-wall TV coverage of the World Cup will be welcome relief, especially in Belgrade where football passions often run high at the grounds of Red Star and Partisan.

"Before the wars of the 1990s, the former Yugoslavia, made up of Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, Bosnia, Slovenia and Macedonia was a middling power in world football.

"But the collapse of Yugoslavia in the early 1990s diluted the strength of the team."

"But now there is real optimism out there that this team can do well and help bring some positive news to the country."

And out in the streets, the feeling is positive.

Nationalism is never far from the surface in this part of the world. A successful World Cup would mean so much, in so many ways.

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