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The same group of observers denounced the election's first round, which took place on October 31, and said authorities had failed to fix the flaws.

Bruce George, the official in charge of the monitoring operation, said: "With an even heavier heart than three weeks ago, I have to repeat the message from the first round; this election did not meet a considerable number of international standards for democratic elections.

"The deficiencies have not been addressed. The abuse of state resources in favour of the prime minister continued, as well as an overwhelming media bias in his favour," he said.

---

We are talking about the Ukraine here, not Italy. It's interesting to note the difference in response to questionable election results in the Ukraine (a burgeoning democracy) and the US (a more, shall we say, complacent democracy):

quote:

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Mr Yushchenko addressed the crowd, saying he had no confidence in officials conducting the count. Supporters braved sub-zero temperatures in orange scarves, sweaters and headbands - the colour of his campaign. Banners with the candidate's portrait hung from buildings and a bridge.

"Remain where you are," he told the 50,000-strong gathering in Independence Square. "From all parts of Ukraine, on carts, cars, planes and trains tens of thousands of people are on their way here. Our action is only beginning."

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quote:

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The State Department called on the government of Ukraine Monday to investigate allegations of fraud in its presidential elections or risk a changed relationship with the United States.

Echoing criticism by the European Union, the Organization for Security and Cooperation, Freedom House and others, spokesman Adam Ereli said the United States was deeply concerned and called on Ukrainian authorities ``to act to ensure an outcome that reflects the will of the Ukrainian people.''

The State Department is not calling for new elections and it is not too late to address concerns, but ``quick action on the part of the government of Ukraine is required,'' Ereli said

Otherwise, he said, ``we would consider the results tarnished and would have to consider what responses in the relationship would be appropriate.''

---

That being said, this is a sad day for Ukraine and the the FSU in general. I can only hope that the Rada refuses to accept the "official" results.

quote:

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Before the election U.S. President George W. Bush sent a letter to outgoing Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma vowing a review of U.S.-Ukraine relations if the election wasn't fair.

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quote:

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Tens of thousands of opposition demonstrators have flooded back into the heart of the Ukrainian capital Kiev to show support for their leader. For a second day, people are rallying for pro-western liberal Viktor Yushchenko, saying Sunday's presidential election was rigged.

The demonstrators plan to march to parliament, where opposition deputies are pushing for a no-confidence vote.

Officials in several Ukrainian cities have refused to accept the outcome of the election, and Mr Yushchenko has told supporters to stage a civil disobedience campaign.

Several hundred people staged a noisy vigil on the streets of Kiev late into the night despite the bitter cold, shouting "Yushchenko" into loudhailers. They erected tents and built a fence around them amid rumours that police would try to break up the demonstration in the early hours.

---

His friend won.

Proof the winner is his friend?

Both were endorsed by Putin.

quote:

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Thousands take to the streets

The city councils of the capital Kyiv and of Ukraine's second city, Lviv, have recognized Yushchenko as the winner. Three other cities – Ternopil, Vinnytsia and Ivano-Frankivsk – also announced Monday they had recognized Yushchenko as president.

There were rallies across the country of 48 million people, with an estimated 20,000 protesters coming out in Lviv.

Yushchenko and his supporters have threatened a campaign of direct action, and threw up barricades in some central Kyiv locations on Tuesday, but the stand-off so far has remained peaceful.

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quote:

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The city councils of the capital Kyiv and of Ukraine's second city, Lviv, have recognized Yushchenko as the winner.

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interfax is saying that the lviv city council voted unanimously (68 members) to recognize yushchenko.

lviv has been a historical centre of ukrainian nationalism, to the point of anti-russian actions over the last 5 years.

quote:

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Since independence in 1991, the Ukrainian government has switched lessons in thousands of schools from Russian to Ukrainian. But while Kiev may be banking on schooling to revive the mother tongue, this is not enough for the authorities in Lviv, the stronghold of Ukrainian nationalism, which is Lvov to the Russians, Lemberg to the Viennese, and Lwow to the Poles.

The Lviv city council has been trying to ban Russian-language pop music in bars and cafes and to close down a Russian-language radio station, and linguistic vigilantes have been cruising shops and kiosks, bullying retailers into dumping Russian literature, newspapers and CDs.

It's a tall order. Russian-language newspapers still outnumber Ukrainian 10 to one across the country. At a second-hand book stall there are only tomes in Russian. In an art gallery bookshop, Russian predominates.

"We specialise in philosophy and those books haven't been translated into Ukrainian," explains the shop assistant. "We do have a Ukrainian version of Kant's Critique of Reason if you're interested."

Another Lviv bookseller says the local authority is trying either to ban Russian publications or to slap on punitive taxes. But Ms Pidluska in Kiev says the reason for the domination of Russian is simple.

"Nobody will put any money into publishing books in Ukrainian."

Lviv's language war was ignited by the death of a popular local folk-singer, Igor Bilozir. At an outdoor cafe one evening in May, he and a friend were playing his Ukrainian ballads while a group of Russian youths at the next table were singing songs in Russian.

The Russians warned Bilozir to stop singing in Ukrainian. He refused. They came to blows. The fighting spilled along the street and the 45-year-old slumped to the ground after a blow to the head. He died three weeks later in hospital, becoming for Ukrainian nationalists an instant martyr.

---

[ 23 November 2004: Message edited by: Willowdale Wizard ]

quote:

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The Western media is awfully selective in their coverage of elections. They show pro-Yushchenko rallies in Kiev but you won't see 50,000 supporters of Yanukovich that have taken to the streets of Donetsk, Simferopol or Kharkiv. We were ready for the Western media to recognise the elections as fair only if the American puppet wins. A pro-Western candidate supported by Washington won the elections 10 years ago. I remember the cheer of the Western media at that time. And what? The term of Kuchma in office is one of the most shameful periods in our country's history. I think our country needs a man like Putin who will really fight corruption without bragging and selling our country to the Western oligarchs. I think Yanukovich is the man we need.
- Alla, Kiev, Ukraine

I am a Ukrainian living in Toronto. I have not met a person who would support Yanukovych. All of my friends in Ukraine are outraged and are describing those elections as a nightmare. Government employees were told to bring in at least 5 absentee ballots if they didn't want to be fired. Buses with "voters" were circling from a village to a village in eastern parts of the country. The current government will do everything possible and impossible in order to keep the power. Ukraine needs the international support.
- Ulyana, Toronto, Canada

I lived as a volunteer for two and a half years in Odessa, Ukraine, from 2000-2002. Ukraine's fraudulent election is simply a symptom of larger problems, which will not be solved regardless of who ultimately wins the presidency this week. I love the Ukrainian people, share many of their deepest values, but also share their realistic pessimism of a government and respect for law that is severely broken.
- Travis Bailey, San Antonio, Texas

Why do you hear only the opposition? I'm an ordinary university teacher from Eastern Ukraine and I (as millions of others) have voted for Mr Yanukovich absolutely freely and consciously, just because I'm fed up with all those dirty lies and insinuations that have been generously supplied by Viktor Yushchenko and his team (including his mass media) for the last 6 months.
- Natalia, Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine

It is indeed ironic that the Ukraine election results are being challenged on the basis of exit polls financed by the US government and Bush administration. We in the US just went through a presidential election where the exit polls showed Bush's opponent Kerry won. Bush's response: "The exit polls were wrong"!
- Keith Mulholland, Indianapolis, USA

I have cousins living in the Ukraine and they have told us that people were threatened to be fired from their jobs if they did not vote for Yanukovych. Corruption is still flourishing in Ukraine. For Ukraine to move forward, corruption must be overcome.
- M.J., Edmonton, Canada

My parents are in Lviv, Ukraine and I've heard from them that it is in complete chaos. I've been following this election from the start and it is clear that Yushchenko should have won. If I were in Lviv right now, I'd be out on the streets with the rest of the people - the election was corrupt and I refuse to accept the result.
- Maria Dounaeva, Sheffield, UK

---

Besides.

De-Russification is a good thing and is vital to undoing Stalin's near-destruction of non-Russian cultures in much the same way right-wing Mainland Chinese are destroying Tibetan and Taiwanese language and culture.

[ 23 November 2004: Message edited by: NDP Newbie ]

quote:

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Yanukovich is the fucking bad guy. He was endorsed by a friend of Bush's.

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quote:

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The challenger, Mr Yushchenko, has called on the former Polish president and leader of the Solidarity trade union Lech Walesa to mediate in the crisis.

Mr Walesa says he is ready to travel immediately to Ukraine - as long as President Kuchma agrees.

State television has not shown pictures of the events in Kiev and dozens of journalists have resigned over what they say is state censorship.

---

quote:

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Canada has rejected the results of Ukraine's bitterly disputed presidential election, joining the United States and other countries in refusing to recognize the declared winner.

Deputy Prime Minister Anne McLellan told the House of Commons on Wednesday that the federal government does not recognize the victory of Kremlin-backed Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych.

---

(Incidentally, most of the parties backing each candidate have ideologies that I am either unfamiliar with or can't readily identify. There's a minor social democratic party backing Yushenko though called Ukrajins’ka Social-Demokratyčna Partija (Ukrainian Social Democratic Party). I know they back her because they're part of the Julija Tymoshenko Electiom Blok, and she's a big Yushenko ally. Incidentally, there seem to be parties of all ideologies on both sides, making the election somewhat confusing to follow.)

Update:

A friend of mine whose father is an MP for the centrist Partija Reformy i Porjadok (Party of Reform and Order) told me that both that party and the Socialist Party of the Ukraine (its most left-wing social-democratic party) are beind Yushenko.

[ 24 November 2004: Message edited by: NDP Newbie ]

I think Rufus hit the nail on the head though...this is another example of the proxy fight going on between the US and Russia. It's the 21st century version of the Cold War.

I would think that both sides are guilty of shenanigans when it comes to voting. Democracy, albeit the best system going to date, has its flaws, as we have seen in elections in North America and is subject to influence. Imagine what the pressures are over there where democracy is just beginning...

Then there's the money and political power plays going on...the Russians probably have a vested interest in exerting influence in the region and the US probably wants in (what's the oil production in the Ukraine? What other industries are involved?).

What we are seeing in Ukraine also happened in Aberijizan (spelling?), where the western candidate eventually was declared the President after the outgoing President (Eduarschuendaze..again spelling) was forced to resign.

I suspect we will see similar events in other former Soviet Republics, and in the Caspian where there are huge oil reserves yet to be tapped. And both sides will use the terrorism issue to justify their actions in these regions.

As I've said before, two of the UKraine's three social democratic party, including the most leftist of the three (The Socialist Party, but I've heard it described as both "extreme left" and "left-wing social democratic". I consider the latter more credible, as I doubt the far-left with ally itself with either bloc.).

And there's a lot of parties ideologically similar to the U.S. Democrats and our Liberals behind Yuschenko. There's a couple of parties that seem like Stronach-style Tories on both sides of the fence.

quote:

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JULY: Ukrainian presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko as he looked less than five months ago before being hit by a mystery illness. NOW: A shockingly altered Yushchenko as he appeared in Kiev yesterday, where he declared victory in Ukraine’s disputed election.

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Link: http://tinyurl.com/5dr63

[ 25 November 2004: Message edited by: drgoodword ]

All I do know is that I find it totally hypocritical that the US government would talk about the unfair election procedures in Ukraine.

quote:

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Originally posted by steam.machine:
Wow what an interesting scene in Ukraine.

I think Rufus hit the nail on the head though...this is another example of the proxy fight going on between the US and Russia. It's the 21st century version of the Cold War.

I would think that both sides are guilty of shenanigans when it comes to voting. Democracy, albeit the best system going to date, has its flaws, as we have seen in elections in North America and is subject to influence. Imagine what the pressures are over there where democracy is just beginning...

Then there's the money and political power plays going on...the Russians probably have a vested interest in exerting influence in the region and the US probably wants in (what's the oil production in the Ukraine? What other industries are involved?).

---

An American influence exists for a pipeline crossing Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey and will be pumping oil sometime in 2005. The pipeline extends thousands of kilometres across Muslim populated areas.

The US military are there somewhere near Georgia and have been staring across the way at Russian troops for some time now. Iran is uneasy with US military presence in the region as well. Gaining access to middle eastern oil via the Balkans was, afterall, an expensive diversion for the Nazis during WWII.

So now the Yanks are trying their hand at empire building. Afghanistan is situated in the midst of a vast expanse of oil reserves. As the Brits once were in the same stickiation, the Yanks are teetering on the verge of economic ruin at home while propping up old world colonialism abroad. Political conservatives don't know any other way, really. The election in the States was as rigged as any the Soviets managed personally.

Besides the Georgian example is somewhat diffrent. Russia has been undermining Georgia for years, including under the new President Sakashvilii (sp?). Their support for Abkhazi and South Ossetia have created clear and obvious tensions in the region. Frankly Russia has internal problems they should deal with before they play regional cop. Obviously terrorist concerns will have to be dealt with, in an appropriate manner, but these imperialist actions on their part are dumb. It's as dumb as the American 'adventure' in Iraq for instance, from at least a strategic stand point.

[ 25 November 2004: Message edited by: Vansterdam Kid ]

la times

quote:

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"Russia cannot be a power without Ukraine," Liliya Shevtsova, an analyst with the Carnegie Moscow Center, said yesterday. "It is historically conditioned, but it is also a plain fact."

The Russian parliament threw aside its previous reluctance to comment on the affairs of another country and yesterday condemned "the illegal actions of Ukraine's radical opposition forces," referring to Viktor Yushchenko, the pro-Western candidate whose supporters have taken to the streets.

"Geographically, socially and nationally, Russia still does not perceive Ukraine as a separate, sovereign nation," Shevtsova said. "This is its great power complex."

With a friendly government in Ukraine, plus allies in Belarus and Kazakstan, Russia is able to dominate a solid economic bloc on its borders. That provides an opportunity for shared markets and other economic partnerships that do not leave Russia alone outside of the European Union.

If Yushchenko became Ukraine's president, though, the country could decide to join NATO and end its substantial military cooperation with Russia. Such a move, some analysts believe, could cost Russia as much as $10 billion a year.

In contrast, a Yanukovych presidency would guarantee Russian companies access to vital energy pipelines — Ukraine transports 90 percent of Russian gas to Europe — and, crucially, Russia's own Black Sea fleet, currently headquartered on leased property in the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol.

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from serbia to georgia to kiev ...

click!

click click!

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The hardliners in Ukraine are the latest target of the Serb student movement intent on exporting non-violent revolution.

The Centre for Non-Violent Resistance, based in Belgrade, has been training activists in Ukraine who want to overthrow their own autocrats. It grew out of Otpor (Resistance) a pro-democracy, anti-Milosevic movement. "There's no exact recipe on how to export a revolution, but there are ways to help people who want changes," said Danijela Nenadic, a co-ordinator for the centre. Former Otpor activists acted as advisers in Georgia last year. They worked in Belarus as well, but are now banned from the country.

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the guardian

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In the longer term, to say, as I believe we should, that a democratic Ukraine has its proper place in the EU, is the best support we could give Ukrainian democrats. Immediately, though, we need the hardest, sharpest warning that Europe, the US and any other democracy that has influence in Kiev or Moscow can deliver. A group of students in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv send us this appeal via the BBC website: "We just hope Yanukovich decides not to turn the guns on us ... Don't let them kill our will."

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[ 25 November 2004: Message edited by: Willowdale Wizard ]

quote:

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Many buses are now lined up for a whole block on both sides of Khreshchatyk - some must be from the regions, others are probably local. I was glad to see the buses - it means these people will have a place to get warm during the night. I saw a woman with a huge poster of Yushchenko pasted on her back scrawling the name of the town she must've arrived from - Vinnytsya - on one of the buses, dirty as hell.

The protesters have also moved into the Ukrainian House (former Lenin Museum) – there are about 3,000 of them inside – they can sleep and eat there, and there are also doctors there in case someone needs help.

Yushchenko talked about the ugly decision of the Central Election Commission, and then they announced they were going to appeal it in the Supreme Court - though, knowing how dependent on the government the court is, it's not gonna be easy. Tymoshenko reminded the crowd that the Georgian revolution lasted three weeks, and that here it shouldn't take longer. (My concern is the weather - I can't imagine how it can possibly go for this long in such cold... But then again, most people here love winter, it's just me who always whines for half a year and dreams of Italy or Istanbul...)

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Does anybody else find it funny that Soros, Chirac, and Schroerder are on the same side as the Chimp?

[ 25 November 2004: Message edited by: NDP Newbie ]

quote:

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Does anybody else find it funny that Soros, Chirac, and Schroerder are on the same side as the Chimp?

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quote:

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Court spokeswoman Liana Shlyaposhnikova told AFP: "Until we have finished examining the appeal, the results of the election cannot be published ... Until we have reached a decision, the election result cannot be valid."

The court is scheduled to examine the appeal on Monday.

Since the strike call, reports speak of major traffic jams on Ukraine's western border where several main roads have been blocked, and some factories and universities are said to have stopped work.

However, coalminers in the east of the country, where Mr Yanukovych's strength lies, have vowed to work on.

Some analysts say the strike could further divide the country as Mr Yushchenko draws his support mainly from western and central regions.

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quote:

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Originally posted by NDP Newbie:
Soros is for Yuschenko.

Does anybody else find it funny that Soros, Chirac, and Schroerder are on the same side as the Chimp?

[ 25 November 2004: Message edited by: NDP Newbie ]

---

Well I don't see how beyond their (semi) capitalist ideology how any of those folks are allied with Bush (I assume that's what you mean by the Chimp). Soros for instance was openly funding the Democrats (but of course I expect to hear the they're the same argument). Besides I'd take a democratic liberal over an autocratic w/e the hell Yankovych is.

quote:

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Does anybody else find it funny that Soros, Chirac, and Schroerder are on the same side as the Chimp?

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Poor Ukraine. If it sides with Russia, it gets famine and 20 million dead. If it sides with Europe, it gets the Wehrmacht and a few million more. And today? The choice is the gangster capitalists or the gangster old-school oligarchs. Some choice. And they can't even flee to Canada anymore.

quote:

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Originally posted by Jingles:
BTW, do you notice how gorgeous are Ukranian women?

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quote:

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The Communists, whose leader, Pyotr Simonenko, won almost 6 percent of the vote Sunday, said they would not endorse Yushchenko or Yanukovych.

"Since representatives of oligarchs and bandits went into the runoff, we are inclined to vote 'Against All,'" Communist deputy Sergei Gmyrya told Itar-Tass on Tuesday.

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quote:

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Javier Solana, the European Union's foreign policy chief, arrived in Kiev. Jan Kubis, current head of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe whose election observers criticized the election as marred by fraud, and Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus were also due to arrive.

Solana's spokeswoman, Christina Gallach, said there was no immediate plans for a meeting between Solana, Kuchma and Yushchenko.

In Kiev, protesters standing five deep and linking arms blockaded the Cabinet building where Yanukovych works and refused to let staff enter, heeding a call Thursday by Yushchenko's popular and more radical ally Yuliya Tymoshenko. Police were packed into about 12 buses nearby.

Protesters also blocked all surrounding streets with buses and vans decorated with Yushchenko's orange flags, posters and ribbons. Protesters also surrounded the presidential administration building, which was heavily guarded by ranks of police in riot gear.

On Thursday, Yushchenko's campaign chief, Oleksandr Zinchenko, announced that the opposition-formed National Salvation Committee -- a kind of parallel government -- would establish national self-defense organizations and take responsibility for defending the Ukrainian Constitution.

Tymoshenko has called on opposition supporters to seize power by surrounding government buildings, blocking railways and transport.

---

quote:

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It was Tymoshenko whose oratory put fire in the bellies of a column of demonstrators, sending them marching up the steep slope from Kreshchatik towards the government district, right up to the presidential office on Bankova Street. It was Tymoshenko who, when opposition marchers closed on the ranks of riot police barring the way to the presidential office earlier this week, urged the police to make the perilous mental leap from defenders of the status quo to rebels. "Be on the side of citizens of Ukraine!" she called through a loudhailer, before posting carnations through their police shields. "I ask you to support the people and the president elected by the people!" And it was Tymoshenko who, in the end, accepted the police offer to slip through the lines for consultations with the authorities, assuring them that the protesters wouldn't break anything.

But who is Tymoshenko? Is she the dedicated champion of free-market values, Ukrainian independence and European liberal ideals she and her supporters would claim her to be? Or is she a darker, more compromised figure, whose own record might tarnish an opposition victory?

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What the Hell is the Bush administration doing?

[ 26 November 2004: Message edited by: BoRiskus ]

[ 26 November 2004: Message edited by: BoRiskus ]

[ 26 November 2004: Message edited by: BoRiskus ]

quote:

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Are they so incompetent that they've lost track of who's on their side? lol

---

Why would the US back an anti-American candidate? And yes, Soros, the Democrats and the Republicans political action groups are all part of this.

I think the answer lies in the Bush administration's need to keep Russia on its toes as stated above in another post.

There supreme court of the country has suspended the final inauguration of Yanukovitch until a recount has taken place.

There are on going protests and strikes around the country in support of both candidates now. So far everything has been peaceful, with two large groups meeting in the main square of Kiev and agreeing that regardless who wins, both have to be accountable to the people.

quote:

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A correspondent on the state channel, UT1, announced live on the evening bulletin that the entire news team was going to join the protests in Independence Square. She said their message to the protesters was: "We are not lying anymore".

A couple of hours earlier, journalists on the pro-government private channel One Plus One took a similar stand.

The station had announced earlier in the day the resignation of its news editor, who had been presenting a fiercely pro-government election special for the past three days, after journalists refused to produce news bulletins in protest at censorship of the opposition.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Non-partisan partisan:
After reading US campaign behind the turmoil in Kiev in today's Guardian, I asked myself a similar question.

Why would the US back an anti-American candidate? And yes, Soros, the Democrats and the Republicans political action groups are all part of this.

I think the answer lies in the Bush administration's need to keep Russia on its toes as stated above in another post.

The author points out the US'meddlesome role in Belarus, Georgia and Serbia and the tricks of the trade including u.s. style branding and forcing the opposition to unite behind a single candidate. A worthwhile read.

---

I've come up with another theory: The Bush administration (and even most of its American and foreign pro-American-but-anti-Bush opponents) would rather see the Ukraine get oil from America's allies in the Middle East than from Russia.

They figure 2,000 fewer troops in Iraq is a miniscule price to pay for that sort of influence.

It's not particularly malignant on American's part (first time I've said that in a while...lol), as whether they have to run through Russia or America's hoops, Ukrainians have equally little control over their electricity density, and the outcome helps Ukrainians as whole, helps American intersts, helps EU interests, and hurts Russian interests.

[ 27 November 2004: Message edited by: NDP Newbie ]

At the 2002 parliamentary election, the mood of the country was to throw president Kuchma out. The opposition won. Six parties made it over the 4% threshold:

United Ukraine 12.6% (Kuchma)
"Social Democratic Party (United)" (taken over by oligarch friends of Kuchma, led by Victor Medvedchuk who became Kuchma's chief administrator) 6.7%
Our Ukraine 25.1% (Yuschenko - centre-right)
Yuliya Tymoshenko's Bloc 7.7% (they call her the "gas princess")
Communist Party of Ukraine (CPU) 21.3%,
Socialist Party of Ukraine (SPU) 7.3%,
other 19.3%

So a normal proportional representation system would have given seats as follows in the 450 seat House:

United Ukraine 15.6 (Kuchma) - 70 seats
United Social Democratic Party (Medvedchuk) 8.3% - 37 seats
Our Ukraine 31.1% (Yuschenko) - 140 seats
Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc 9.5% - 43 seats
Communist Party of Ukraine (CPU) 26.4% - 119 seats
Socialist Party of Ukraine (SPU) 9.0% - 41 seats

The opposition would have had 76% of the seats. Kuchma would have been impeached, even if his old friend Yulia Tymoshenko had stood by him.

However, Ukraine had a young party system, and a hybrid electoral system: 225 seats by national party lists, 225 single-member seats, with no compensatory ("add-on") feature. Half proportional, half feudal. Most of the single-member seats went to local barons who were disguised Kuchma supporters, or to actual Kuchma supporters. On election day he had 102 seats, while another 102 of the 225 local seats were held by loose fish, but in short order the line-up was:

United Ukraine (Kuchma) - 182 seats. He soon poached another 18 from Yuschenko's deputies.
Social Democratic Party (Medvedchuk) - 24 seats
Others 21, mostly pro-presidential
This soon gave Kuchma a majority of the 450 seats.

The opposition never had 225 seats:
Our Ukraine (Yuschenko) - 112 seats
Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc - 21 seats
Communist Party of Ukraine (CPU) - 66
Socialist Party of Ukraine (SPU) - 24 seats

However, Kuchma's collection of loose fish started to unravel when the battle for succession began. The speaker of the House, Volodymyr Lytvyn, had been elected as number 1 on the United Ukraine list. The heir-presumptive, he thought. Not so.

The largest faction in United Ukraine was Yanukovych's Regions of Ukraine group, based in Donetsk. Yanukovych earned Kuchma's trust in 2002 by ensuring a victory for the ruling elite's unpopular bloc "United Ukraine" in the Donetsk region, which until then had been the stronghold of the Communists. Its original 35 seats swelled to 67 after Yanukovych became prime minister. (Even by Nov. 28, 2004, he still had 61.)

One of Kuchma's previous prime ministers, Anatoliy Kinakh, is head of Ukraine's "Industrialists and Entrepreneurs" party. He stood against Yanukovych in the first round of the elections, and backed Yushchenko in the runoff.

So did the Socialists. "The fundamental reason why we supported Yushchenko is [because] we could never, under any circumstances, support Yanukovych. Our party, which from 1993 has been in opposition -- which suffered massive persecution, and was the victim of [government] brutality in 1999 when we effectively stood alone against this government -- which took part in protests in 2000 under the slogan 'Ukraine Without Kuchma' -- could not support or facilitate a candidate who wants to [prolong those policies]." In return for their support, the Socialists are demanding constitutional reforms transferring much of the president's powers to parliament, the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Iraq; and that Kuchma not be given immunity from possible prosecution.

The Communists, however, refused to support either.

Another former prime minister is Valery Pustovoitenko, whose People's Democratic Party has 14 seats. He was #6 on Kuchma's United Ukraine list, and 11 of his 14 still supported Yanukovich during the election. Now he says "We believe it is vital to strike down the elections as illegal and move on." Several other deputies have deserted Yanukovich's party or Medvedchuk's party.

Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn is positioning himself well. A few days ago he denounced Yuschenko for staging a swearing-in with no quorum, boycotted by the Communists. Now, he presides over the end of the regime, in a session boycotted by the party he once headed. "What we have today is a revolutionary situation. In the current situation, the most realistic decision is to recognize the election as one that didn't take place because of the impossibility to define the winner.'' In his view, there are two variants to reach agreement – to conduct repeat voting of the second round of elections, or to hold a complete repeat presidential election. But he pointed out, "The law does not envision repeat voting." He would like to start from scratch. So would the Communists. Yanukovich, discredited, could come fourth.

[ 30 November 2004: Message edited by: Wilfred Day ]

quote:

---

Originally posted by Klingon:

All I do know is that I find it totally hypocritical that the US government would talk about the unfair election procedures in Ukraine.

The US elections are so packed with corruption, irregularities, confusion and outright vote buying in campaigns, it seems more appropriate for Ukrainian authorities to be supervising them, instead of the other way around.

---

quote:

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"Viktor Yushchenko probably has one of two possible medical conditions that would account for his rapid facial changes. The diseases are scleromyxedema or cutaneous T-cell lymphoma. He needs a skin biopsy. I cannot conceive how poisoning could cause these changes."

--Howard Bargman, MD, associate professor of dermatology, University of Toronto

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quote:

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Originally posted by al-Qa'bong:
I don't follow Ukrainian politics so am encyclopaedicaly uninformed on the subject, but I was talking to my Slovakian friend last night about European politics, and he told me some things I didn't know before.

He said that the choice in the elections isn't between good and bad, but between bad and bad, and that Ukraine has been run by mafias for the last ten years.

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There is a revolution taking place on the streets of Kyiv today and it is business left unfinished by the fall of the Berlin Wall. But unlike the old Cold War, Ukraine's revolution is not a U.S.-led or a U.S.-inspired show. America backs the democrats and wishes them well, but it, like the rest of the world, is supportive only. The contest in Ukraine today is a battle between the liberal democracy, rule of law and free markets of the European Union v. Russia's authoritarian gangster capitalism. It is Putin’s last stand. The United States will have had very little to do with it, except perhaps by exerting pressure on Moscow to assure Ukraine’s peaceable departure from the Russian sphere.

The existing Ukrainian regime under Kuchma did almost everything wrong, succeeding only in alienating Ukraine's increasingly resilient and participatory citizenry. Under Kuchma, Ukraine came to be dominated by a parasitic, despotic elite in cahoots with criminal oligarchs and clans. Corrupt, incompetent, and ignorant, Kuchma managed to infuriate world and domestic public opinion with his likely involvement in the murder of a journalist, Georgii Gongadze, a few years ago. Yanukovych, who was supposed to succeed Kuchma as president, has been even more of an embarrassment. He is a convicted criminal, a known informer for the Soviet secret police, and a quintessential oligarch. Throughout, Putin has supported them wholeheartedly.

Putin shamelessly interfered in the Ukrainian election. He poured millions of dollars into Yanukovych’s campaign and made several visits to Ukraine to very publicly endorse Yanukovych, By backing this corrupt cabal and openly declaring the outrageous and shameless electoral fraud as “open and honest”, Putin has (hopefully irreparably) damaged himself. Mr. Putin prematurely congratulated Mr. Yanukovich on his "victory," then when the demonstrations erupted in Kyiv, called instead for everyone to await the final result. He then congratulated Mr. Yanukovich again; then gave up on that and started babbling about the need to respect the Ukrainian constitution He has already invested more political capital than was wise by heavy-handedly supporting Alexandr Lukashenko, the authoritarian president-for-life of Belarus. Now, Ukrainian events will hopefully remind Russians of how much fraud was involved in their own last election.

Russia's own democrats are also watching events in Ukraine carefully, as they understand that their own chances of resisting Putin's authoritarian rule and achieving democracy now rest on Ukraine's success. Success for democracy in Ukraine will hopefully embolden them and set the stage for sweeping Putin and his authoritarian henchmen into the proverbial “dustbin of history”.

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Ukraine's central bank has imposed limits on how many dollars customers can buy to reduce the risk of a run on the country's currency, the hryvna.

The new rules cap currency exchange at $1,000 (£523) in any location, and limit withdrawals from ATMs.

Aside from the cash machine limit of 1,500 hryvna ($280; £150) a day, companies are banned from withdrawing more than 80,000 hryvna a month beyond the money they need to pay wages and social security.

On Monday, President Kuchma had said that cash was running out.

"A few more days and the financial system could fall apart like a house of cards," he said, warning that unpaid taxes and sliding customs duties could bring down the government.

The central bank, meanwhile, spent $400m to prop up the hryvna, of a total foreign exchange reserve of about $10bn.

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Ukraine's parliament has passed a no-confidence motion in Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych as a crisis over the disputed presidential poll continues.

In parliament, 229 MPs - three more than required - voted in favour of sacking Mr Yanukovych as prime minister and creating an interim government. The government will not automatically be dismissed now the resolution has been passed, as this requires the signature of the president. Forcing through the dissolution without presidential approval would require a larger majority: two-thirds of MPs, or 301 votes.

In a separate vote, the local parliament in Mr Yanukovych's home region of Donetsk decided to hold a referendum on 9 January to seek autonomy from central government.

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According to a helpful report on ocnus.net, the Black Sea Fleet's existence depends on Ukraine's acquiescence to Russian naval vessels in its key ports of Simferopol and Odessa. The fleet is based on Ukraine's Crimean peninsula, which Catherine the Great had annexed in 1783. Without these bases, Russia would lose its southern ports. And that would lead to a major shift in political power.

After the Soviet Union broke up, Russia negotiated a deal with Ukraine to berth 250 ships that make up the fleet in Sevastopol. If Ukrainian nationalists, revved up by anti-Russian fervor, led by the U.S. and Western European countries, tell the Russians to remove the fleet, war is a serious possibility.

According to one survey, this fleet, in 1995, had 48,000 military personnel, 14 subs, 31 surface ships, 43 patrol craft, 125 combat aircraft, and 85 helicopters. The Russians also have one coastal defense division, with 175 tanks, 450 armored infantry fighting vehicles, and 72 artillery pieces. In addition, Russia has major construction facilities along the Black Sea and runs research stations for all sorts of new ship and aircraft development.

Under terms of the '90s fleet deal, the Ukrainians got a fair number of ships, but no real capacity to build a competitive navy.

If the neocons here want to start a war over Ukraine that will spread through Central Asia, they've got a ready-made opportunity.

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Kuchma is likely to name parliament speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn to head an caretaker government, said Markian Bilynskyj, a Kiev-based analyst.

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I saw that coming. See 11 posts back.

And then president?

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Claimed neutrality in the dispute over the election; many observers believe he indirectly sided with the opposition. Considered a possible candidate if a repeat presidential vote is held.

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Three days ago, Novosti noted:

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Moroz, who placed third with five percent of all votes during the first round of Ukrainian presidential elections, signed an agreement with Yushchenko on supporting his candidacy in the second election round. The Socialist Party voiced several pre-conditions, including the Our Ukraine (Yushchenko plus Tymoshenko) bloc's participation in the political-reform process, of such backing.

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But when Yushchenko tried to backtrack on the agreed conditions, Moroz accused him of monarchist tendencies:

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Parliament called emergency weekend sessions to pass two sets of reforms -- changes to the election law to prevent vote rigging, and constitutional changes to cut the president’s powers.

But it failed to agree on either measure after pro-Yushchenko deputies said they would not agree to vote on both measures at once.

“This means that there may not be changes to the constitution and our monarchist form of rule will continue,” said Socialist leader Oleksander Moroz. “(Yushchenko’s) Our Ukraine bloc is trying to find a way to get out of its undertakings.”

Moroz’s support in parliament had been crucial in passing a no confidence vote in Yanukovich’s government this week.

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Moroz said he may accept the proposal. “It is possible, but the issue is untimely. We have to see how the situation develops. Let us wait another three weeks”, he said. A new runoff presidential election is scheduled for December 26.

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[ 11 December 2004: Message edited by: Wilfred Day ]

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Turner is set to depart on Tuesday for the pivotal elections in the former Soviet republic on Dec. 26. An official who asked not to be named told The Canadian Press that the government wanted someone of Turner's stature to the lead the first-ever mission of the Canada Corps.

Canada is sending 500 observers to monitor the election, 10 times larger than any previous election-monitoring mission.

"He'll be leveraging his expertise as a prime minister and parliamentarian to encourage a smooth (election)," the source said.

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The citizens of Warsaw, Prague, Budapest and Leipzig took to the streets in 1989 demanding a “return to Europe”, where “Europe” stood for the west and the pre-communist past . . In 2004, “Europe” means aspiration not return, model not protection, future not past – the European Union. Thus, the “orange revolution” in Kiev is not the last of Europe’s “velvet revolutions” of the late 20th century. It is rather the first of the EU-inspired revolutions of the 21st century.

In 1989 . . the American dream was a significant component of the “return-to-Europe” revolutions. The 2004 “orange revolution” is both more realistic and stronger.

Ukrainians are . . insisting that the political course of their country includes a European Union perspective. What helped convince Ukrainian citizens to endure days and nights on the freezing streets is not Hollywood melodrama but the kind of changes they can see occurring in their neighbours, the new EU accession states of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia (and near-neighbour Lithuania). If large swathes of eastern as well as western Ukraine, elder as well as young people, workers as well as middle-class people, support the democracy movement, a large part of this is owed to the post-1989 success of European integration in transforming central Europe.

The enlargement of the European Union is driven less by the member-states’s strategic interests or the Commission’s bureaucratic inertia than the union’s magnetic attraction for neighbouring societies . . . the promise that if you are like us you could become one of us. This makes the EU more forceful than the combined weight of its individual members yet also vulnerable in its collective foreign policy, for this is fuelled by external demand not internal supply.

The European Union did not want to be involved in Ukraine, yet knew that (with EU flags on the streets of Kiev and leaders of its member-states already visiting) it could not stay on the sidelines. In the process it tried in word and deed to accommodate, not override, Russian interests. “Russia wants to know where the European Union will stop”, said the Dutch foreign minister Bernard Bot. It is clear that Brussels itself does not know the answer, and is both more confused and less Machiavellian than Moscow assumes.

Throughout the Ukraine crisis, European leaders did everything in their power to discourage Ukraine’s people to dream about possible EU membership. . . This hope is in vain.

The “orange revolution” in Ukraine has made evident that the only common foreign policy available to the European Union is the politics of enlargement and expansion. Many people, inside and outside the union, may fear it; but the perspective of an ever-enlarging Europe is a precondition of keeping Europe together.

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Maybe Yanukovich's voters will be demoralized. Yuschenko may win easily.

However, let's look at the numbers.

In the first round the major pro-Yuschenko candidates got as follows:
Yuschenko 11,188,675
Moroz - Socialist Party - 1,632,098
Kinakh - Party of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs - 262,530
Omelchenko (Unity) - 136,830
Chernovecky - 129,066

Also, "Others" got 240,656

Yuschenko's second round vote was 14,222,289. That would be the 13,349,199 above, plus say 68,000 of the "others" 240,656, plus a 6% or so increase in turnout.

In the first round, "Against all" got 553,565 votes.
In the second round, "Against all" got 707,789 votes

In the first round the major pro-Yanukovich candidates were:
Yanukovich 11,008,731
Vitrenko - Progressive Socialist Party 429,794
Yakovenko - Communist Party of Workers and Peasants 219,191
Symonenko - Communist Party 1,396,135, perhaps 155,000 of whom followed the party's advice to vote "against all" in the second round, and 1,241,135 of whom voted Yanukovich in the second round
Assume 172,656 "others" went to Yanukovich

Yanukovich's second round vote was 15,093,691. That could be the above 13,071,507 from the first round, plus a 6% increase in turnout (784,000), plus 1,238,000 double voters and stuffed boxes.

So on the Dec. 26 revote, another 154,000 communist voters might go to Yanukovich. But that won't make up for the 1,238,000 false votes he will lose in an honest vote. This brings him down to 14,009,691, about 200,000 below Yuschenko's 14,222,289.

But this may be based on two false assumptions.

1. Maybe the east really was scared into voting for Yanukovich in greater numbers than just a 6% increase in turnout.
2. Maybe a lot more former communist voters voted "against all," and a lot of "against all" voters from the first round disappeared.

So maybe he only had 500,000 false votes. And maybe he will pick up 500,000 votes who voted "against all" last time. In that case, he breaks even, the vote is a repeat, and Yanukovich wins by 870,000 votes.

Unlikely, but possible?

Moroz managed to get Yuschenko to move more than half-way to a parliamentary system:

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The reform package also increases parliamentary powers over the president. The president no longer has the power to appoint his own government, but keeps the right to reject parliamentary nominees for the top three posts -- prime minister, foreign minister and defense minister, the AP reported. And parliament now has the right to appoint all other Cabinet positions without presidential approval.

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[ 21 December 2004: Message edited by: Wilfred Day ]