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If Uzbekistan follows through, as Washington expects, the United States will face several logistical problems for its operations in Afghanistan. Scores of flights have used K2 monthly. It has been a landing base to transfer humanitarian goods that then are taken by road into northern Afghanistan, particularly to Mazar-e Sharif -- with no alternative for a region difficult to reach in the winter. K2 is also a refueling base with a runway long enough for large military aircraft. The alternative is much costlier midair refueling.

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[ 31 July 2005: Message edited by: Cueball ]

We have known for (one? two? three?) months that this was coming, first of all because of a tripartite agreement reached by Uzbekistan with China and Russia. That is the much more important and dangerous aspect of this story, and it isn't even mentioned there.

It may be true that the May uprising in Andijan intensified all the political jockeying going on in Central Asia, but it was not the first or sole cause.

The Bush admin, of course, has an interest in framing this story as evidence of their noble commitment to human rights in the area, but that is utter hogwash. As with Saddam and Osama before him, Karimov has been very useful to the U.S. for a long time, all during which time he was as murderous a thug as he still is, but that has never bothered them before.

They are doing damage control now, but this is still part of the Great Game, a superpower confrontation in the making (which is another reason, of course, that they are playing political games in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, besides needing those bases).

The trouble is, this time it is three superpowers, China, Russia, and the U.S., all moving their pieces around the board at once. This is damned dangerous.

more

Gary Leupp

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The trouble is, this time it is three superpowers, China, Russia, and the U.S., all moving their pieces around the board at once. This is damned dangerous.

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Absolutley true! It also points out how critical an event 9/11 was in terms of the Central Asian Games.

Where once al-Qaeda and the Taliban (and whoever else fundamentalists) prevented Russia and China from playing to big a role in Central Asia, now the US has to do it themselves.

But this is a very costly venture, and obviously one which local populations don't like.

The other 'stans' still have US bases, but it's only a matter of time until they too are gone.

Central Asia could return to stability, which was unthinkable as long as Islamic fundamentalism was forcing the play.

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Alexei Malashenko, a Central Asia expert at the Carnegie Moscow Center, said he believed that the eviction notice was a negotiating tool. He predicted that Washington and Tashkent would come to an agreement allowing the base to remain.

"I don't believe in the future — in a month — that Uzbekistan will insist on this," Malashenko said. "It's a kind of diplomatic game. It's not a final decision."

[snip]

Malashenko, the Central Asia expert, said the Uzbeks appeared to believe that their help with the so-called war on terror would trump U.S. qualms about their record on human rights. That left Karimov and his government "very astonished" by the U.S. reaction to events in Andijon, Malashenko said.

"They were showing everybody, the West and especially America, that they were the final frontier against terrorism. Now they're disoriented, because all the time they believed America is an ally, and the fight against terrorism is a very good pretext to do anything in Uzbekistan as far as human rights are concerned and dealing with the opposition."

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Whatever Uzbekistan's motivation, they are backed by Russia and China, so this isn't a local political game. This is China mostly, and Russia re-asserting themselves in Central Asia.

Regardless of the available resources open to whomever has vested interests, pipelines from Russia to China could easily be built.

When it becomes a former US ally.

Globe had a huge story on Uzbekistan today, in which Karimov is described as a hard line Commie in the thrall of Russia and China.

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Originally posted by skdadl:
Thanks for that link, sgm.

Does anyone know what, specifically, is of economic interest in each of the Stans? ie: who has oil? who is more likely the route for a pipeline? etc.

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According to a friend in South America, anywhere north of the Himalayas could be what he describes as potential for oil traps. Oil seems to like to form oil in salt domes. With its vast oil and gas reserves, Uzbekistan is predicted to become the world's third largest energy producer by 2010.

[ 01 August 2005: Message edited by: Fidel ]