Can anyone share any intelligence on what is happening there? Is Jack Harris going to run? Will Danny williams campaign openly?

About a year ago I heard williams unleashing the most eloquent anti-Harper invective, I think over the Atlantic accord and how Harper can't be trusted. He said someting like, "It just goes to show the pettiness of the man."

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Originally posted by adma:
And keep in mind that there's one Tory incumbent left running: Fabian Manning in Avalon...

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A seat we came within 2 votes per poll of winning in 1997, with virtually no organization, I might add. I know we were trying to come back from not having official party status then, which is why the resources probably went elsewhere, but it sure was a shame.

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Originally posted by Malcolm French, APR:
Mike Duffy was saying that Williams will be sending his workers out to support Harris and the NDP.

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Does that mean that Williams and his provincial colleagues will now do a mass walkout from the PC's and become, by default, the first Newfoundland NDP government?

[ 04 September 2008: Message edited by: Ken Burch ]

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Originally posted by Ken Burch:

Does that mean that Williams and his provincial colleagues will now do a mass walkout from the PC's and become, by default, the first Newfoundland NDP government?

[ 04 September 2008: Message edited by: Ken Burch ]

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Originally posted by pebbles:

Given Danny's profligate spending and his inflationary expansion of the provincial public service, he already is. (He doesn't have "colleagues", only sheep.)

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Nice try, pebbles, but CCF-NDP provincial governments actually have a very good record for financial stewardship.

[ 05 September 2008: Message edited by: MUN Prof. ]

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Originally posted by Malcolm French, APR:

Nice try, pebbles, but CCF-NDP provincial governments actually have a very good record for financial stewardship.

The sole exception, some yutz called Rae, now belongs to your party.

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Originally posted by 500_Apples:

What about Glenn Clark?

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That failure is now one of the two great hopes of the Liberal Party,

Indeed, if we expand the criteria, almost every CCF-NDP Premier in Canadian history had some successes.

The two exceptions - the two failures - would be Ujjal Dossanjh and Bob Rae.

NDP nomination in St. John's South is tomorrow. Tories also have a candidate there, Federation of Agriculture honcho Merv Wiseman.

I think Cleary could be an exciting addition to the NDP caucus if he can take on the Tories who are embedded in St. John's South, and Siobhan Coady who runs a semi-strong second there.

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Originally posted by skarredmunkey:
I think Cleary could be an exciting addition to the NDP caucus if he can take on the Tories who are embedded in St. John's South, and Siobhan Coady who runs a semi-strong second there.

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Now, politics makes strange bedfellows, but it's more than fascinating that former Independent editor Ryan Cleary spent time last week considering running for the New Democrats. After all, in his columns, he's never had much good to say about the party. "The New Democrats are losers - there, I said it - a mainstream party that wouldn't win an election if Jackie Layton was given a 100-seat head start.... I'd have more respect for the NDP if they actually set out to win an election - instead of settling for spoiler." Furthermore, "the NDP (are) content to cater to the small pocket of aging granolas and artsy fartsies in Town" and "are desperate in the dream department." It's a regular theme: "The New Democrats are no more a provincial party than Water Street in downtown St. John's is a provincial highway. Lorraine Michael is no more a potential premier than John Hickey is a potential finance minister." "Despite the backing of most of the major unions, the New Democrats - outside the aging granolas in east end St. John's and the union crowd in Labrador City - are a lame political duck.... Peg Norman is one of the few names bandied about as potential leadership material. If she had any sense she'd join the Liberals - at least then, if successful, she'd have 11 other losers to hang out with." Yep. A political match made in heaven. Or else he hopes party members have short memories.

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Originally posted by skarredmunkey:
Bump. (Conservative candidate Craig Westcott admitted in this CPAC profile of St. John's East - 6:50 minutes into the video - that he and Liberal candidate Walter Noel will be in a race to see who comes last. This is a shoe-in for Jack Harris!)

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This is actually a pretty good result for the NDP in a riding that is rural and where there have usually only been paper candidates. If the NDP can get 22% of the decided vote in a dead zone like Avalon - it bodes well for both St. John's ridings.

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A new poll shows Conservative Fabian Manning holding on to a slim lead in Avalon. Telelink polled 546 likey voters in the district during the weekend. About a quarter, 25.1%, said they would vote for Manning, while 21.6% said they would vote for Liberal Scott Andrews. That’s just a 3.5 percentage point lead, within the margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points 19 times out of 20. NDP candidate Randy Dawe is in third with 12.6% support; 39.9% of respondents said they were still undecided.

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In 2003 the riding was dissolved. The Liberal-voting Bonavista/Clarenville portion was ceded to the Central NFLD riding (Bonavista-Exploits), and the southern Avalon portion of the old slightly misnamed "St. John's West" was added. This is a sparsely populated but huge chunk of territory where people have been voting Tory since before Confederation, making the riding a bit more of a toss-up.

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Actually Brian Tobin was from Corner Brooke . . .

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Liberal candidate Siobhan Coady has a comfortable lead in St. John's South-Mount Pearl, but the race isn't over yet. Telelink Call Centre polled 550 likely voters in the riding during the weekend: 29.1% said they would vote for Coady, 19.5% said they would vote for NDP candidate Ryan Cleary, 11.6% support Conservative Merv Wiseman, 1.3% plan to vote for other parties, while 38.5% remain undecided. The margin of error is +/-4.3 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

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[ 01 October 2008: Message edited by: MUN Prof. ]

This could become the safest NDP seat in Canada!!

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The NTV/Telelink poll shows NDP candidate Jack Harris has opened up a big lead in St. John's East. Telelink polled 526 likely voters during the weekend. A majority of respondents, 52.3%, said they plan to vote for Jack Harris on election day. Liberal candidate Walter Noel is a distant second with 8.7%. In a statistical tie for second is Conservative candidate Craig Westcott, who has 8.2%. Undecided are 30.4% of respondents, the lowest undecided rate of the three Avalon peninsula ridings.

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ETA: On second hand, its nice to have a woman in such a high profile role in the NDP cabinet, especially given that Mulcair is Deputy Leader and covers Finance. Perhaps there could be a second Deputy Leader (Libby) in charge of an additional portfolio and Jack Harris could be put as House Leader. Or maybe there could be two Deputy House Leaders (Davies and Harris) both with minor portfolios.

[ 04 October 2008: Message edited by: V. Jara ]

ETA: to say; the men in the NDP had better smarten the hell up and realize who is the major portion of the supporting voters for the party!

The day that I might consider it okay for a newly minted male MP to again get a top caucus position, shifting, a long sitting vibrant female, out and into a nothing position, is the day I start voting GP.

[ 04 October 2008: Message edited by: remind ]

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Originally posted by MUN Prof.:
St. John's South-Mt. Pearl is TCTC.

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Originally posted by remind:
Edited as Vjara changed post after/while I was saying I disagreed.

ETA: to say; the men in the NDP had better smarten the hell up and realize who is the major portion of the supporting voters for the party!

The day that I might consider it okay for a newly minted male MP to again get a top caucus position, shifting, a long sitting vibrant female, out and into a nothing position, is the day I start voting GP.

[ 04 October 2008: Message edited by: remind ]

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Originally posted by Stockholm:
She isn't an MP, but it seems to me that more often than not the NDP rep on talk shows is party president Anne McGrath.

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Ryan Cleary came within 1047 votes (or 3%) of beating Liberal Siobhan Coady. He got 40.5% of the vote in St. John's South--Mount Pearl.

The NDP vote in the province as a whole increased from 14% in 2006 to 34% (the Tories dropped from 43% to 17%, and the Liberals increased from 43% to only 47%).

The NDP placed 3rd only in Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor, and Avalon.

They placed second everywhere else, and of course...

Jack Harris won with 75% of the vote in St. John's East!

Voter turnout was low, and much of this can be attributed to the ABC campaign. But yesterday was still a really, REALLY good day for the NDP in Newfoundland and Labrador.

[ 16 October 2008: Message edited by: skarredmunkey ]

The trick will be translating that vote share into something concrete- with the added twist that some of it has to be flash in the pan. Still, there is a great deal to build on.

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And NF may in one shot have taken from NS being the highest provincial vote share for the federal NDP. Don't have the numbers.

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Provincial, but not provincial or territorial vote share. However the Yukon is a real downer compared to the NWT (Bevington re-elected) and Nunavut (a very strong third).

All the numbers are here, although not quite official yet.