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Author Topic: If the embargo on Cuba were lifted...
CMOT Dibbler
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posted 24 July 2005 01:34 PM      Profile for CMOT Dibbler     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
What would happen? Would Fidel be overthrown, and everything he built destroyed by a public desperate for cell phones and microwaves? Would Cuba's economy fourish because of a combination of American money and Cuban government regulation? What do you think?
From: Just outside Fernie, British Columbia | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged
M. Spector
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posted 24 July 2005 01:43 PM      Profile for M. Spector   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Why don't you tell your pals in the Pentagon to try it and see what happens?
From: One millihelen: The amount of beauty required to launch one ship. | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
nister
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posted 24 July 2005 02:10 PM      Profile for nister     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Your question reminded me that Clinton laid plans to build a honking great embassy in Havana, and now I'm trying to find out what became of it.
From: Barrie, On | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
CMOT Dibbler
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posted 24 July 2005 02:45 PM      Profile for CMOT Dibbler     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by M. Spector:
Why don't you tell your pals in the Pentagon to try it and see what happens?

I'm not a bushite. I simply want to speculate about what would happen. My dad says Cuba would prosper because of fidels economic policies. I haven't really read enough about Cuba to have an informed opinion about this subject.


From: Just outside Fernie, British Columbia | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged
DrConway
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posted 24 July 2005 04:45 PM      Profile for DrConway     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I would suspect that Cuba's and the US's reactionary policies would both moderate, and that if the USA pledged itself (ha!) to not attempt overthrow or even subtler espionage-style methods of meddling in Cuba's affairs, that Cuba would exit the deep freeze and slowly evolve to a country with an actual democratic franchise.
From: You shall not side with the great against the powerless. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
CMOT Dibbler
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posted 24 July 2005 05:11 PM      Profile for CMOT Dibbler     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by DrConway:
...that Cuba would exit the deep freeze and slowly evolve to a country with an actual democratic franchise.

With Castro's healthcare system attached?


From: Just outside Fernie, British Columbia | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged
Stephen Gordon
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posted 24 July 2005 05:24 PM      Profile for Stephen Gordon        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Well, we've still got ours.
From: . | Registered: Oct 2003  |  IP: Logged
DrConway
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posted 24 July 2005 05:45 PM      Profile for DrConway     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
With that Supreme Court decision and the US health insurance companies panting to hive off more of the government-owned insurance sector, I have to wonder. But that's thread drift.
From: You shall not side with the great against the powerless. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
maestro
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posted 24 July 2005 07:10 PM      Profile for maestro     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The immediate effect would be that Cuba could sell sugar to the US. This would make a huge difference to the Cuban economy.

It would also mean US tourists could travel to Cuba, which would be a further influx of dollars.

At least at first glance, it seems an end of the embargo would allow Cuba to pursue improvements in the standard of living for the citizens.

If Cuba was a capitalist economy, that would not necessarily be the case (witness other Caribbean and Central American countries).


From: Vancouver | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
Left Turn
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posted 24 July 2005 09:02 PM      Profile for Left Turn     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
If the US embargo were lifted on Cuba it would give the Cuban people the chance to prosper and to prove that Capitalism is not a precondition for prosperity.
From: Burnaby, BC | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged
Scott Piatkowski
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posted 25 July 2005 03:46 AM      Profile for Scott Piatkowski   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
... Cuba would suddenly become less desirable as a tourist destination.
From: Kitchener-Waterloo | Registered: Sep 2001  |  IP: Logged
CMOT Dibbler
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posted 25 July 2005 07:54 PM      Profile for CMOT Dibbler     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
HOw do you figure that?
From: Just outside Fernie, British Columbia | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged
abnormal
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posted 25 July 2005 08:01 PM      Profile for abnormal   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
posted by maestro:
The immediate effect would be that Cuba could sell sugar to the US.

They do it now, only not directly. In this direction, all this would mean would be there would be no middleman involved taking his cut. While I don't think that cut is insubstantial, I'm also sure it's not that big.

You're also making the supposition that any increase in payments to the Cuban government would actually make it through the system.


From: far, far away | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
arborman
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posted 25 July 2005 08:06 PM      Profile for arborman     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Scott Piatkowski:
... Cuba would suddenly become less desirable as a tourist destination.

quote:
originally posted by CMOT Dibbler:
HOw do you figure that?

It would be overrun with US tourists, in part because it is so close to Florida. At present, it's the only major Caribbean destination where it's possible to avoid the Disneyfication effect. Prices would also skyrocket with the influx of dollars and US tourists.

All that said, it's effect on our travels is basically irrelevant. What is important is any effects on the Cuban people, and that I can't predict.


From: I'm a solipsist - isn't everyone? | Registered: Aug 2003  |  IP: Logged
Fidel
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posted 25 July 2005 08:21 PM      Profile for Fidel     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Perhaps GlaxoSmithKline would be allowed to sell Cuba's meningitis b vaccine in the States and save the lives of an estimated 200 to 300 American children each year.

Cuban's could provide even more poor American students, and who cannot access mainly white medical colleges, with six years of free medical training in Cuba. Canada could use just a few more doctors, too.

Perhaps the New York Yankees ball club would save a few thousand dollars in fines when they do business in Cuba as do a few dozen other American companies who already flout the dated cold war mentality of senators Helms and Burton by doing business in Cuba.

What would happy of El Salvador or Nicragua or Guatemala ever received socialized medicine, freely accessable higher education and some basic infrastructure which the condoms, er contras and mercenaries bombed and torched in the 1970's and 80's ?. Perhaps there is a typical Washington reason for Cuba to remain isolated. Killing an idea costs money and votes, eventually.

[ 26 July 2005: Message edited by: Fidel ]


From: Viva La Revolución | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Scott Piatkowski
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posted 25 July 2005 08:58 PM      Profile for Scott Piatkowski   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by CMOT Dibbler:
HOw do you figure that?

It's the only warm place you can visit today without having to worry about

a) being overrun by American tourists
b) being mistaken for American tourists

Nuff said.


From: Kitchener-Waterloo | Registered: Sep 2001  |  IP: Logged
Briguy
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posted 26 July 2005 08:53 AM      Profile for Briguy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Iceland gets by with full state-sponsored health funding and university funding. I don't see why Cuba couldn't do the same, while enjoying a more democratic government system. Outside of interference from the 800 lb gorilla, of course.
From: No one is arguing that we should run the space program based on Physics 101. | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
DrConway
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posted 26 July 2005 01:05 PM      Profile for DrConway     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Fidel:
a few dozen other American companies who already flaunt the dated cold war mentality of senators Helms and Burton by doing business in Cuba.

FLOUT. FLOUT! FLOUT!


From: You shall not side with the great against the powerless. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Fidel
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posted 26 July 2005 02:51 PM      Profile for Fidel     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The health of Cuban's would improve markedly with access to advanced drugs, clean water supplies and medical equipment from the States. But we can bet that Washington already views Cuba's socialized medicine as a threat to U.S. national security and political "stability" throughout Latin America.

Havana would likely become a CIA-sponsored conduit for drugs into the U.S. as is Nicaragua and El Salvador since president Ronald Raygun in the 1980's.

[ 26 July 2005: Message edited by: Fidel ]


From: Viva La Revolución | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Aristotleded24
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posted 26 July 2005 02:58 PM      Profile for Aristotleded24   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
What would happen if another economic power, say the EU, decided to open up trade with Cuba? That would mean the US could no longer isolate countries it doesn't like. What impact would that have?
From: Winnipeg | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
DrConway
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posted 26 July 2005 03:33 PM      Profile for DrConway     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
And the EU has nukes.
From: You shall not side with the great against the powerless. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Stephen Gordon
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posted 26 July 2005 04:01 PM      Profile for Stephen Gordon        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
But does any country other than the US have a trade embargo against Cuba?
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Fidel
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posted 26 July 2005 04:36 PM      Profile for Fidel     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Well, the EU has no trade embargo on Canada, and yet we(foreign based corporations in Canada) ship the bulk of Canada's natural wealth to the States. Our conservative politicians have always stated that trade in Canada is North-South more than it is east-west. The States should be a natural trading partner with Cuba as it is with Mexico, state of Puerto Rico, Domincan Republic and Haiti, the freest trading nation in the Caribbean, according to Washington. Canadian companies are doing business with Cuba along the lines of mining, import-exports to a degree and biotechnology.

In the past, the Yanks have been known to divert oil tankers from the Middle East and Russia that were bound for Cuba. The oil tankers were typically offered US dollars over and above what the Cuban's could afford to pay. The same thing has happened with aid groups in the States wanting to ship humanitarian aid to Cuba. Things like insulin needles and certain drugs just aren't manufactured in Cuba, and the feds down there have made it a gauntlet of red tape and legal nightmare for church groups to deliver aid to Cuba. The blocking of humanitarian aid to Cuba and N. korea is illegal, says the UN. Multi-national corporations based in the US and around the world wield more influence with respect to who does business in Cuba. Those same corporations do business on a regular basis with Vietnam and China, still considered communist countries by Washington standards. The US trade embargo on Cuba has been vindictive, to say the least.


From: Viva La Revolución | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Aristotleded24
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posted 26 July 2005 08:39 PM      Profile for Aristotleded24   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Fidel:
Our conservative politicians have always stated that trade in Canada is North-South more than it is east-west.

What about policies implemented in the late 19th to early 20th century that made it difficult for western farmers to buy farm equipment from the US where it would have been cheaper and forcing them to have to buy from Ontario?


From: Winnipeg | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
M. Spector
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posted 26 July 2005 08:59 PM      Profile for M. Spector   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
ˇViva el 26 julio!

ˇHasta la victoria siempre!


From: One millihelen: The amount of beauty required to launch one ship. | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Fidel
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posted 29 July 2005 03:15 PM      Profile for Fidel     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Aristotleded24:

What about policies implemented in the late 19th to early 20th century that made it difficult for western farmers to buy farm equipment from the US where it would have been cheaper and forcing them to have to buy from Ontario?


How about the fact that Yanks can buy gasoline , and which originated in Canada, cheaper than you and I can ?.

Why should prices for sheets of plywood and two-by-fours shoot up here when the Yanks go on a building spree ?.

Why are we sending British Columbia's old growth trees to the States while they ship it back to us as arse wipe ?.

Why does big oil handover more in oil royalties to socialist Norway, or Alaska, or even Saskatchewan than our Ralph "what's under the table?" Klein has the business savvy to demand for our own oil, which is less expensive to drill for ?.

And why did socialist Norway become a net creditor nation well before Alberta cleaned out its Heritage fund to make Ralph Klein look as if he were actually fit to manage a lemonade stand ?.

How come Canadian's depend on buying Swedish and American chainsaws when we have way more lumber than either of them ?.

Why are we in this handbasket, and where are we going under weak liberal and conservative rule in this corporate colony, a vast repository of natural wealth being used up by foreign-based multinationals ?.

The unemployed, underemployed and working poor in Canada pay a heavy price when farmers and $40 thousand dollar a year wannabe capitalists in Canada vote for weak and ineffective governments in this Puerto Rico du Nord.

[ 29 July 2005: Message edited by: Fidel ]


From: Viva La Revolución | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
mimeguy
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posted 30 July 2005 07:40 PM      Profile for mimeguy   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
In my opinion there is no scenario in which Castro would or will be overthrown. He is Cuban communism. If the embargo was lifted he would control its aftermath as he controls everything else.

I don't think the US has to lift the embargo in their thinking. Castro is not long for this earth as he grows older and sicker. I don't think his ill health is all rumour. When Castro dies Cuba will open itself up by its own desire to be more open and free. There is no one who can control the political landscape the way he has. This does not mean that it will become a completely capitolist state. It may move more toward a democratic socialism but when Castro dies so will communism as Cubans know it.

so sayeth Steve


From: Ontario | Registered: Jul 2005  |  IP: Logged

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