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Ailing Cuban leader Fidel Castro, who has not been seen in public for 16 months, suggested on Monday he might give up his formal leadership posts, the first time he has spoken of his possible retirement.

"My elemental duty is not to hold on to positions and less to obstruct the path of younger people," the 80-year-old Castro said in a letter read on Cuban television.

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The end of Fidel's era does not mean his brother will simply step into the Castro shoes. Raul Castro, at 75, is likely to prove to be a transitional figure, paving the way for a younger generation. Waiting in the wings is the respected vice-president, 56-year-old Carlos Lage, and 42-year-old Felipe Perez, the foreign minister. The editor of Temas warns: "The political cost of not delivering results is very high. I think the government knows they must produce changes."

Some kind of economic liberalisation is on the cards. Cuba wants to improve the distribution and flow of goods while keeping the market under control and declaring the public education and health systems off-limits. The consolidation of socialism in Cuba may depend on how well Fidel's successors can manage this delicate balancing act.

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