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Author Topic: NDP has big lead in NS
madmax
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posted 05 June 2008 09:49 AM      Profile for madmax   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Premier, party take hit in poll

Premier Rodney MacDonald and his Conservatives have both dropped to third place in the eyes of decided voters, a new poll says.

The survey by Corporate Research Associates says the NDP was the top pick of decided voters with 38 per cent (up from 37 per cent in February), followed by the Liberals with 30 per cent (up from 28 per cent) and the Conservatives with 27 per cent (down from 32 per cent). The Green party was the choice of four per cent (up from three per cent).

[Edited to add "in NS" to the thread title so that people will know what the thread's about.]

[ 06 June 2008: Message edited by: Michelle ]


From: Ontario | Registered: Apr 2008  |  IP: Logged
It's Me D
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posted 05 June 2008 10:55 AM      Profile for It's Me D     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
All the observed changes in support seem to fall within the survey margins of error but I'm sure this is an accurate poll as it essentially confirms the word on the street (not my street mind you ).

The really disappointing thing is that no matter how obvious the NS publics' support for the NDP and frustration with Rodney's Conservatives we seem to be unable to actually change our governing arrangements until some approved future date; oh representative democracy


From: Parrsboro, NS | Registered: Apr 2008  |  IP: Logged
skarredmunkey
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posted 06 June 2008 12:59 AM      Profile for skarredmunkey     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The NS NDP being the most popular is good news, but the Liberals (rather than the PCs) being at 30% is bad news. Is Liberal support increasing very much over time? Does it have the potential to cut into NDP support?
From: Vancouver Centre | Registered: Nov 2005  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 06 June 2008 01:37 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Any chance of Alexa switching back to the provincial scene and becoming a cabinet member? She'll be 64 August 11; as Don Newman pointed out, still young.
From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
sandpiper
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posted 06 June 2008 03:14 AM      Profile for sandpiper     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I don't think the NDP has a big lead at all. NDP support is at 52% in Halifax (where the bulk of our seats are), the Liberals are at 37 in Cape Breton, and the Conservatives are leading the mainland (minus Halifax) with 34% (which is promisingly low for them, but still needs to go down a few points for the NDP to pick up Guysborough, etc). So while the NDP should hold all their newly acquired seats in Pictou, Shelbourne, and maybe Queens, should an election be held in the fall, and could pick up 2 seats in the Halifax area, it'll be a minority NDP government at best unless Judy Streatch causes a few more scandals or the Premier makes a few jokes about the gas prices for his helicopter.

As for the question of Alexa returning to provincial politics - I think she's happy to have more time for her international work and her grandkids (while I'm sure she'll continue to work on local campaigns federally and provincially).


From: HRM | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 06 June 2008 07:39 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
The NS NDP being the most popular is good news, but the Liberals (rather than the PCs) being at 30% is bad news.

The Liberals in Nova Scotia are quite moribund - but they still have some - shall we say "brand equity" - when the last NS election was called, polls had then at 30% and then during the campaign they promptly slid to the low 20s (we should be so lucky to have that happen federally). So, when i look at a provincial poll in NS, to me the real story is the spread between the NDP and the PCs. The Liberal vote is almost certain to drop to no better than the 23% they got last time and that will probably split 50/50 between the NDP and PCs - (or the NDP may even get more of it).

Any word on when NS is likely to have an election???


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Caissa
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posted 06 June 2008 08:12 AM      Profile for Caissa     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The next election in NS is more than likely going to result in another minority government. Too bad NS can't lead some of that NDP support to us in NB>
From: Saint John | Registered: Jun 2006  |  IP: Logged
StockwellDay
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posted 06 June 2008 10:49 AM      Profile for StockwellDay     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:

The Liberals in Nova Scotia are quite moribund - but they still have some - shall we say "brand equity" - when the last NS election was called, polls had then at 30% and then during the campaign they promptly slid to the low 20s ...

Any word on when NS is likely to have an election???


Part of the reason for that slide though, Stockholm, is the previous Liberal leader here was AWFUL. Really embarrassingly so. He didn't really come close to winning his riding. Leaders matter more then local candidates to the average voter, I think, and last election the Liberal vote stayed home. Plus they didn't have a candidate in Queens, which would hurt their stats a wee bit.


From: the right coast | Registered: Sep 2005  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 06 June 2008 05:08 PM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Actually, the NSLiberals polling considerably higher than the vote share predates their previous dink of a Leader.

Before Francis MacKenzie came on the scene "the next Liberal leader" polled a close third in the Premeir/Leader approval standings.

Its pretty clear that the Liberals internal polling still show their support as worse than soft. If they thought the vote results would be anywhere near what the public polls show, they wouldn't have propped up the government on the Budget.

Little chance there will be an election before next year's budget. It's hard to imagine this gong show continuing past then... but I probably thought the same thing next year.

Next year it will only be a 3 year minority government, why not 4? Last time the government pulled the plug after 3 years because they though they could get a majority. They are too hapless now to labour under such delusions.


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 06 June 2008 05:36 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Its pretty clear that the Liberals internal polling still show their support as worse than soft. If they thought the vote results would be anywhere near what the public polls show, they wouldn't have propped up the government on the Budget.

Sounds like the EXACT same story with the federal Liberals.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged

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