The reason I ask about 'plateau' is that producers have been running at or about capacity for the last 20 or 30 years without building new refineries, and these are for light crude. They only talk about building new refineries. (and these are wearing out) Any new ones would have to be for the heavy crude and no one wants to invest the money. (except for the Tar Sands)

I like this link, you can play Sim Oil and be the US prez and handle the crisis yourself.

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Originally posted by exiled armadillo:

Sounds like it would be a good idea to get out of the major cities before this all happens. I wonder what this will do to our social safety net? I would expect that it will collapse with the increased dependancy if, as they predict, a recession hits.

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I don't think you'd any better off in the middle of nowhere with no fuel or power. On the whole, cities are more efficient energy-wise. That doesn't mean to say there isn't a lot of waste from excess lighting etc. but it's far more efficient to move a load of necessary goods to within walking distance of a million people, than to move a million people to within walking distance of a load of goods.

The idea of mass chaos, touch wood, is paranioa. Civilization has been going to collapse about every ten years for the last century, at least. Oil will get expensive long before it runs out. In a worst case, if we don't switch to alternatives ahead of time, it will be rationed to delivery vehicles and if you live within walking distance of necessary shops and services you'll barely notice.

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Originally posted by lonecat:
I am alarmed that politicians and energy producers are not being more upfront about this situation. This lack of forthrightness will result in chaos when oil runs out.

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Well... if what this pessimists say IS true (and it should be noted that many geologists and energy prodcuers DON'T believe in this..), there ain't much structural change short of mass murder that would really change this situation! 5 billion too many mouths to deal with....

Maybe if we started changing our energy infrastructure in the 1970s...but we didn't, once the politically inspired oil shock was over we enthusiastically started using more fossil fuels than ever, while R&D and investment in renewables plummented.

That said: we're innovative little monkeys, and especially so we our backs are against the wall. It's just that this time it ain't just one problem (the peak oil transition) that we're up against, but a whole slew of depressing eclogical trajectories: climate change, soil erosion/deforestation/desertification, persistant organic pollutants (POPs), newly emergant diseases, etc. that we will have to face up with.

As for politicans awareness, if your prone to conspiracy theories, you'd be apt to believe that most high level politicans ARE aware of the situation, and are busily planning infarious plans for the ineventual chaos that is coming our way.

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It's just that this time it ain't just one problem (the peak oil transition) that we're up against, but a whole slew of depressing eclogical trajectories: climate change, soil erosion/deforestation/desertification, persistant organic pollutants (POPs), newly emergant diseases, etc. that we will have to face up with.

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Its worse than that. Since the Americans are resource starved and have been exporting all the jobs that make the basis for a healthy economy(manufacturing etc) to foreign countries, the infrastructure they used during the depression isn't there any more.

During a recession/depression a countries economy will retract but maintain a certain level as long as those jobs are there. But the americans don't have them anymore.

As far as living in the middle of nowhere I have an advatage. My mother did that for years and knows all the inns and outs. Thanks to her I am learning how to build cob houses, have always known a fair amount about gardening and greenhouses etc. I think you can do it, you just have to learn or readjust.

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Originally posted by exiled armadillo:

Its worse than that..

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What would be worse than mass dieoff as man declines from his and her perch of industrial might?

Energy researcher Richard Duncan describes the dark new world we're approaching as the "Olduvai Gorge":

Duncan is about to revise his predictions regarding the industrial slide of man: this pessimistic SOB predicts "a net die-off of about 300,000 people per day in the 22 years from 2008 to 2030." Do the math and that's 3/4's of everyone from a fossil dependant society... and if your reading these words on a computer screen, you unfortunately make the cut!

Again, we better pray he's playing chicken little, or aliens to come down and give as a source of "free energy".

[ 28 November 2004: Message edited by: Panama Jack ]

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Originally posted by lonecat:
I am alarmed that politicians and energy producers are not being more upfront about this situation. This lack of forthrightness will result in chaos when oil runs out.

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What you expect them to take a "Hit" on the stock market? They are probably over estimating what oil is left so they can ride the higher oil prices. A short history lesson, Exxon, Enron, etc... I forgot the rest of the names, it's late and I'm tired. Sorry. If you are counting on the honour of oil people like g w bush and his buddies it's not gonna happen. They don't personally care about you and me and chaos. they have their own private gated compounds and a life style to maintain.