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Author Topic: Liberal Leadership thread (new thread)
Adam T
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posted 04 May 2006 05:55 PM      Profile for Adam T     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Running (In order of entry)
1.Martha Hall Findley,46, Lawyer and former Firm Partner, Management and Legal Consultant and firm owner, former V.P of Corporate Development The Rideau Group

2.Stephane Dion,50, Political Science Professor, M.P 1996- former Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs 1996-2003, Minister of Environment 2004-2006

3.Michael Ignatieff,58, History Professor and Author, former Journalist M.P 2006-

4.Maurizio Bevilacqua,45, Consultant, B.A, M.P 1988-, Former Minister of State 2002-2003

5.Joe Volpe,58, Secondary School Vice Principal and Summer School Principal, former History Teacher, M.P 1988- Cabinet Minister 2003-2006

6.Scott Brison,39, Yorkton Securities V.P of Investment Banking, Commerce Degree, M.P 1997-, P.C M.P 1997-2003, Minister of Public Works 2004-2006

7.Carolyn Bennett,55, Family Physician and Professor, former Hospital Medical Staff Association President and former Medical T.V Show Host, M.P 1997- Minister of State (Public Health) 2003-2006

8.Bob Rae,58, Lawyer and firm partner and corporate director, former Chair Toronto Symphony Orchestra former Social Worker, N.D.P M.P 1978-1982, N.D.P M.P.P 1982-1996 and Premier 1990-1995,

9.Gerard Kennedy,45, Executive Director Daily Bread Food Bank, M.P.P 1996- and Provincial Education Minister 2003-2006

10.Ken Dryden,59, Lawyer, President Toronto Maple Leafs and former Montreal Canadiens Goaltender, author, M.P 2004- Minister of Social Development 2004-2006

11.Hedy Fry,64, Farmily Physician and former President B.C.M.A, M.P 1993- Former Minister of State (Mulitculturalism and Status of Women) 1996-2002

Potential Candidates
1.David Orchard
2.Celine Hervieux-Payette

Removed Paul Zed from potentials, he is backing Iggy. Removed Ruby Dhalla from potentials, her name hasn't been floated for awhile.

Removed John McCallum from potentials as well.

Looks like we're down to pretty much the full slate.

[ 05 May 2006: Message edited by: Adam T ]


From: Richmond B.C | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
Adam T
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posted 04 May 2006 06:57 PM      Profile for Adam T     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Don Newman said John McCallum is going to announce his campaign tomorrrow.

They said he is expected to be the last candidate to enter. Of course, they would likely not be as familiar with the ongoings of David Orchard as they would be with the M.Ps.


From: Richmond B.C | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
-=+=-
rabble-rouser
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posted 04 May 2006 08:04 PM      Profile for -=+=-   Author's Homepage        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Adam T:
Don Newman said John McCallum is going to announce his campaign tomorrrow.

What are the talking points on McCallum?

Is he a torture/American war supporter, or is he from the Liberals' "progressive" wing, or is he both?


From: Turtle Island | Registered: Oct 2004  |  IP: Logged
wallyj
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posted 04 May 2006 11:32 PM      Profile for wallyj        Edit/Delete Post
Hello,being a conservative,this race will be a hoot.The front runner appears to be Iggy and he is pro-american,having lived there for many years.How will that coincide with the U.S. bashing of recent years?Brison has never met a man he didn't like and Canada is not ready for a gay p.m.,also he has a problem with where he takes a leak.A few no one outside Ottawa have ever heard about.I would put my money on Dryden,after all he saved the Canadiens bacon once or twice,maybe he can be the Canadian saviour. Of course,he would have to cross the floor after he got elected.
From: outwest | Registered: Feb 2006  |  IP: Logged
thorin_bane
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posted 05 May 2006 12:22 AM      Profile for thorin_bane     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The libs are in deep doo doo if this is their list. For starters it has way way too many "contenders". And only 3 candidates that are woman with one being "they are burning crosses" Ms Fry. Caroline is about the only one I can see with a legitimate shot outside of Stephane Dion. But he is supposedly gay so that may still be a non starter. Iggy and Rae are hangin a lot of baggage but are the front runners. I don't know anything about Kennedy so I think it will be hard for his campaign to go anywhere. Half the list is people that certainly don't beliong on a leadership race. I expect at least 5 more will abandon it before long. We have already had what 2 or 3 quit. So that would bring the total to no fewer than 14 that wanted the job.

I mean it makes sense, all you need to do is win the leadership race and you will be PM before 2008 is out.Harper is imploding and for some damn reason the NDP is not moving anywhere in the polls again! I would like to see the libs elect a woman but I am not impressed by the selection at their disposal. Actually as far as the NDP go. I would love to see Iggy or Rae no one could help our fortunes more than them. This Iggy=Trudeau is such a load of crap. Plus iggy is so handsome? Umm really, I am straight but I still know an ugly dude when I see one.

Anyway I know I will have to be fed this nonestop for 7 more months as the media pushes anyone that is perceived as a saviour to get back at harper for being mean to them(even if they helped elect him, Be careful what you ask for...)If only they would realize that there are other choices, but that would cause ripples in the elite class, and god forbid a civil war broke out amounst their ranks. we might actually have democracy.

[ 05 May 2006: Message edited by: thorin_bane ]


From: Looking at the despair of Detroit from across the river! | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
up
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posted 05 May 2006 12:34 AM      Profile for up     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I don't care about the sex/sexual orientation/age break down of the candidates.

The biggest problem is in all those candidates, not ONE of them has come up with even ONE new idea to re-build the party on.

That is very frightening, whether you usually vote Liberal or NDP.


From: other | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
Adam T
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posted 05 May 2006 06:39 AM      Profile for Adam T     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
According to the Toronto Star, McCallum is not running:

Meanwhile, John McCallum, the Markham-Unionville MP who had been hinting he might join the crowded Liberal leadership race, has decided instead to back Michael Ignatieff, the Star's Les Whittington reports. Ignatieff, MP for Etobicoke-Lakeshore, is considered a frontrunner in the race.

McCallum, the Liberal finance critic, is announcing his decision in Toronto this morning.


From: Richmond B.C | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
-=+=-
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posted 05 May 2006 07:42 AM      Profile for -=+=-   Author's Homepage        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Adam T:
John McCallum, the Markham-Unionville MP who had been hinting he might join the crowded Liberal leadership race, has decided instead to back Michael Ignatieff

Kudos to McCallum, he's supporting the torture candidate.

If Ignatieff becomes leader, it will be a plus for the NDP, but it still turns my stomach.


From: Turtle Island | Registered: Oct 2004  |  IP: Logged
S1m0n
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posted 07 May 2006 02:59 AM      Profile for S1m0n        Edit/Delete Post
The star is reporting that Kennedy has announced plans to move to Quebec, ASAP. I think that an astute move; I've wondered why more candidates don't do so. I substantial immersion into a French milieu could do a lot to shore up Kennedy's french.

from the star (no link, because of this board's inability to cope with torstar URLs):

quote:
Kennedy and his wife, Jeanette Arsenault, are now looking for a home as well as schools for their children, aged 3 and 7. They'll move as soon as they can and spend at least several months there in advance of the Dec. 2-3 leadership vote.

The Kennedy family all speak French to varying degrees. Arsenault, an early childhood education administrator, is an Acadian from Prince Edward Island and the children have been enrolled in French-immersion programs in Toronto.


I didn't know his wife was Acadian. I don't know how much of an asset that'll be; Lucille Broadbent sure didn't do much to make Ed any more palatable (or bilingual) than he he ever was, but maybe Kennedy can get more leverage.


From: Vancouver | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged
nister
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posted 07 May 2006 04:50 PM      Profile for nister     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Doubly smart to be first. Any other movers will be "following the leader".
From: Barrie, On | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
Michelle
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posted 07 May 2006 04:52 PM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Why are they looking for schools for their children? Surely any community they move into will have schools for their children to go to, won't they?

Or, do they mean they're looking for The Right Schools?


From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
S1m0n
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posted 07 May 2006 05:37 PM      Profile for S1m0n        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Michelle:
Why are they looking for schools for their children? Surely any community they move into will have schools for their children to go to, won't they?

Or, do they mean they're looking for The Right Schools?


No doubt, but all things being equal, it's no sin to make your kids education your top priority when deciding which neighbourhood to live in.

As well, Quebec has the highest incidence of private schools in Canada.


From: Vancouver | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged
Sanityatlast
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posted 07 May 2006 06:36 PM      Profile for Sanityatlast        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by S1m0n:

No doubt, but all things being equal, it's no sin to make your kids education your top priority when deciding which neighbourhood to live in.

As well, Quebec has the highest incidence of private schools in Canada.


Our number one priority when we moved to Calgary was the school our children would attend. We absolutely wanted to be certain they went to a school where they would get the best education. We also did not want them to be bussed until their high school years. When they reached high school age they attended charter school of their choices that emphasized the activities that would keep them stimulated and keen on school.


From: Alberta | Registered: Apr 2006  |  IP: Logged
Sanityatlast
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posted 07 May 2006 06:44 PM      Profile for Sanityatlast        Edit/Delete Post
Re: the long list of high profile candidates not running.

there is no clear frontrunner. One of the drop-outs might be tempted to reverse their decision and enter the Liberal leadership. Just perhaps we'll see a well-oiled campaign 'to coax' one of these non-runners to enter the race. Sort of a 'we need you' plead. Belinda might be tempted now that allof that support that would have went to McKenna, Manley, etc. is up for grabs.


From: Alberta | Registered: Apr 2006  |  IP: Logged
up
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posted 08 May 2006 12:01 AM      Profile for up     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Charter schools in alberta are basically private school financed by public funds.

Gifted schools will use the parents income as the first and foremost guide to determine if a child is 'gifted', claiming that a parent's income is the number one indicator of a child's potential, regardless of whether its nature or nurture that turns out to be right.

And Im just the messenger here so.

[ 08 May 2006: Message edited by: up ]


From: other | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
Adam T
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posted 08 May 2006 05:59 AM      Profile for Adam T     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
there is no clear frontrunner. One of the drop-outs might be tempted to reverse their decision and enter the Liberal leadership. Just perhaps we'll see a well-oiled campaign 'to coax' one of these non-runners to enter the race. Sort of a 'we need you' plead. Belinda might be tempted now that allof that support that would have went to McKenna, Manley, etc. is up for grabs.

Yes, there is a draft McKenna movement already.

Don't bet on it happening. McKenna didn't enter the race when he could have got most of the best organizers and would have kept most every other candidate out. He isnt' going to enter it with 11 candidates in the race and most of the best organizers already committed to one or other of them.


From: Richmond B.C | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Lefty
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posted 09 May 2006 01:47 AM      Profile for West Coast Lefty     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
The star is reporting that Kennedy has announced plans to move to Quebec, ASAP. I think that an astute move; I've wondered why more candidates don't do so. I substantial immersion into a French milieu could do a lot to shore up Kennedy's french.
from the star (no link, because of this board's inability to cope with torstar URLs):

You think this is "astute", Simon? Mais non! It's the stupidest thing I've ever heard, I was sure it was a plant from another campaign when I first read it. This isn't Kennedy taking an intensive immersion course at Laval University for a few weeks, like many candidates do: this is a candidate disrupting his family's entire life permanently for the sake of a few months of optics for his leadership campaign.

Does anybody think Kennedy will be "living" in Quebec in any meaningful sense before the leadership convention? He'll be on a plane, bus or car every single day, mostly outside the province until Convention opens on Nov 29th. And then either he wins and runs as a carpet-bagger candidate in some anglo Montreal riding; or loses and does the same? I can actually see the Conservatives winning Westmount or Mount-Royal under those circumstances.

I just don't see how Kennedy benefits from this politically; it's so totally transparent. Can you imagine if Jack and Olivia had suddenly decided to move to Regina during the NDP leadership campaign to "solidify Jack's ties to Western Canada"? It would have been a laughing stock.

The one good thing about this announcement is that it should shame Kennedy into finally resigning his MPP seat in Parkdale-High Park . This guy has been such a dud from the moment he declared and this latest fiasco only confirms the trend, IMHO.


From: Victoria, B.C. | Registered: Feb 2003  |  IP: Logged
Doug
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posted 09 May 2006 08:14 PM      Profile for Doug   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Some people are drinking the Ignatieff kool-aid, see this quote from the blog a friend of mine who is otherwise a smart lady:

quote:
hes my hero!

ok, not really, but he is super smart and has some interesting views and he has a very different way of looking at things, which i think is a good thing for a leader. i know the liberal leadership race has just started but i am already crossing my fingers for him.


Blech.


From: Toronto, Canada | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
S1m0n
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posted 09 May 2006 08:17 PM      Profile for S1m0n        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by West Coast Lefty:

I just don't see how Kennedy benefits from this politically; it's so totally transparent. Can you imagine if Jack and Olivia had suddenly decided to move to Regina during the NDP leadership campaign to "solidify Jack's ties to Western Canada"? It would have been a laughing stock.

You mean like John Turner moving to (and running in) Vancouver Quadra? Yeah, wotta disaster that was!


From: Vancouver | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged
obscurantist
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posted 09 May 2006 08:29 PM      Profile for obscurantist     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Well, Turner turned a Liberal majority into a 40-seat opposition (just 10 seats more than the NDP), although maybe that wasn't entirely his fault, and he did rebound to nearly win the 1988 election.

Stockwell Day did it too, if you count moving from Alberta to the Okanagan as that much of a radical jump.


From: an unweeded garden | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 09 May 2006 10:12 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I don't think Kennedy plans to run in Quebec. he just wants to spend a summer there learning French.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
spiffy
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posted 09 May 2006 10:20 PM      Profile for spiffy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by S1m0n:

You mean like John Turner moving to (and running in) Vancouver Quadra? Yeah, wotta disaster that was!


at least turner waited until he'd won the leadership before doing that.

this kennedy-becoming-an-instant-quebecois thing is such a blatant publicity stunt that it will backfire. badly.


From: where do you think i'm from? | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
frandroid_atreides
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posted 09 May 2006 10:40 PM      Profile for frandroid_atreides   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by S1m0n:
The star is reporting that Kennedy has announced plans to move to Quebec, ASAP. I think that an astute move; I've wondered why more candidates don't do so. I substantial immersion into a French milieu could do a lot to shore up Kennedy's french.

Simon, I don't think it's going to help very much. This isn't a popular election, it's a delegate election... Such gestures hold a lot less sway. I mean good for him if his French improves, but that's something that will be useful later on, during an actual federal election, and not before that.

I mean what can he do in 3 or 6 months there? I mean even if it helped him get familiar with the province, it's not like even figuring out some sort of new vision for Québec in Canada is going to be made up in time for the vote in December.

I don't know. It's a very strange move. It's puzzling me to no end. Is he taking Ontario for granted? There are something like 7 other candidates in Toronto...

Maybe because Québec isn't as crowded, yet very populous, he thinks it'll be easier to gain ground there. That's kind of a crap-shoot though.


From: Toronto, Arrakis | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
-=+=-
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posted 10 May 2006 07:42 AM      Profile for -=+=-   Author's Homepage        Edit/Delete Post
Coderre is endorsing Ignatieff:
quote:
Coderre to endorse Ignatieff for Liberal leader

OTTAWA (CP) — Michael Ignatieff’s campaign for Liberal leader will receive a boost today, gaining the support of Montreal MP Denis Coderre.

The former Chretien-era minister, who last week ruled out running for the top job himself, is expected to be given a prominent role on Ignatieff’s team.

Coderre, a veteran organizer with a wide network of political allies across Quebec, is a catch for Ignatieff, a rookie Toronto MP and acclaimed scholar.

Party insiders say Coderre had also been wooed by organizers for rival candidate Bob Rae.

link.


This seems shocking. Is the Liberal Party that messed up?


From: Turtle Island | Registered: Oct 2004  |  IP: Logged
Jonas
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posted 10 May 2006 09:15 AM      Profile for Jonas     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I read yesterday that Kennedy only plans to be in Quebec for a few weeks in the summer - that's hardly 'moving' there. Also, kids don't go to school in the summer do they?

If the move gains him delegates in Quebec, might it hurt him in Ontario?


From: Ottawa | Registered: Mar 2006  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 10 May 2006 01:36 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
For the benefit of those who don't believe Liberals will jump on "Stop Mr. X" bandwagons, here's how Dalton McGuinty won the leadership (totals from an unofficial source):

First Ballot (results announced 7:31 pm, November 30):

KENNEDY, Gerard 770
CORDIANO, Joseph 557
DUNCAN, Dwight 464
McGUINTY, Dalton 450
GERRETSEN, John 152
CASTRILLI, Anna-Marie 141
KELLS, Greg 24

Second Ballot (results announced 10:25 pm, November 30; Kells eliminated; Castrilli initially withdrew from the ballot but subsequently returned, causing a delay in voting):

KENNEDY, Gerard 775
CORDIANO, Joseph 570
DUNCAN, Dwight 474
McGUINTY, Dalton 440
GERRETSEN, John 124
CASTRILLI, Anna-Marie 122

Third Ballot (results announced 12:39 am, December 1; Castrilli eliminated and Gerretsen withdrew, both supported McGuinty):

KENNEDY, Gerard 803
CORDIANO, Joseph 601
McGUINTY, Dalton 601
DUNCAN, Dwight 509

Fourth Ballot (results announced 2:35 am, December 1; Duncan eliminated, supported Kennedy):

KENNEDY, Gerard 968
McGUINTY, Dalton 760
CORDIANO, Joseph 696

Fifth Ballot (results announced 4:25 am, December 1; Cordiano eliminated, supported McGuinty):

McGUINTY, Dalton 1205
KENNEDY, Gerard 1065

So Dalton McGuinty was the "Stop Kennedy, Cordiano and Duncan" candidate? Fascinating.


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
miles
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posted 10 May 2006 02:01 PM      Profile for miles     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The moving to Quebec for the summer is a nice story.

As far as a riding to run in I have heard 3 rumours:
1 Reg Alcock resigns his seat or choses not to run again and gives it to Kennedy. This allows him to run in a "safe" liberal seat in Manitoba. stories about Alcock his weight and his diabetes being a major health problem are nothing new.

2. Alan Tonks gives up York South Westin for Kennedy

3. a minor 905er like Wilfert or Kadis are asked to step aside for Kennedy


From: vaughan | Registered: Oct 2004  |  IP: Logged
Scott Piatkowski
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posted 10 May 2006 02:24 PM      Profile for Scott Piatkowski   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by miles:
As far as a riding to run in I have heard 3 rumours:

1 Reg Alcock resigns his seat or choses not to run again and gives it to Kennedy. This allows him to run in a "safe" liberal seat in Manitoba. stories about Alcock his weight and his diabetes being a major health problem are nothing new.


It's a good thing you put "safe" in quotation marks. Alcock no longer holds his seat, because he lost in January.


From: Kitchener-Waterloo | Registered: Sep 2001  |  IP: Logged
miles
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posted 10 May 2006 03:21 PM      Profile for miles     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Scott you picked up on the sarcasm. I do not think their is a safe Liberal seat anywhere in the west.

And even if their was Kennedy would be seen as nothing more than a carpet bagger


From: vaughan | Registered: Oct 2004  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 10 May 2006 03:32 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Scott Piatkowski:
Alcock no longer holds his seat, because he lost in January.

Which leaves Raymond Simard (aged 48, in the House only since a 2002 by-election, unikely) or Anita Neville (aged 63, in the house since 2000, but how likely is it that a prominent woman steps aside for Kennedy?)

His wife is from PEI, from the Acadian community there, which is in the west island. That riding, Cardigan, is held by Joe McGuire, who turns 62 next month, in the House for 18 years, briefly Minister, Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency. Perhaps his future is, as they say, behind him? Looks pensionable to me.


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Scott Piatkowski
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posted 10 May 2006 03:37 PM      Profile for Scott Piatkowski   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by miles:
Scott you picked up on the sarcasm. I do not think their is a safe Liberal seat anywhere in the west.

Um, no. I picked up on a factual error. If you wanted to make that point effectively, you would have used an example of someone who still held their seat (such as Raymond Simard or Anita Neville).


From: Kitchener-Waterloo | Registered: Sep 2001  |  IP: Logged
miles
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posted 10 May 2006 03:41 PM      Profile for miles     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Scott Piatkowski:

Um, no. I picked up on a factual error. If you wanted to make that point effectively, you would have used an example of someone who still held their seat (such as Raymond Simard or Anita Neville).


My belief is that Anita is elected not because of her party but because of who she is.

anyways we digress. Kennedy will run in an Ontario riding building upon his "success" as a minister in Mcliars government


From: vaughan | Registered: Oct 2004  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 10 May 2006 03:53 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by miles:
Kennedy will run in an Ontario riding building upon his "success" as a minister in Mcliars government

In a Toronto seat?

But he's the national man:

quote:
Born in The Pas, Manitoba, where his father served a term as mayor and was a federal Liberal candidate in 1984 . . .

Kennedy lived in Edmonton and worked as a historical researcher and then as the first executive director of the groundbreaking Edmonton Gleaners Association/ Edmonton Food Bank, Canada's first such organization . . .

Gerard also participated in local initiatives to develop food banks in Quebec City, Halifax, Ottawa, St. John's and abroad, including Ireland, France, Poland, Israel and the Ukraine.


He comes from a hard-working, middle-class family of Scottish and Ukrainian ancestry:

quote:
His father, Jack, is a retired small business owner, and his mother, Caroline, is a retired elementary school teacher. His Scottish side is from the Chapeau, Quebec/Pembroke, Ontario region, and Melford/Port Hawkesbury, Cape Breton, Nova Scotia region. The Ukrainian side is from the Dauphin and surrounding farming area in Manitoba.

Gerard speaks French and is married to Jeanette Arsenault, a day care professional and Acadian Francophone from Prince Edward Island. They currently reside in Toronto with their two children.



"They currently reside in Toronto." As Jack Layton said when running for the leadership "I'm not from Toronto, I'm from Montreal."

From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
frandroid_atreides
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posted 10 May 2006 05:56 PM      Profile for frandroid_atreides   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Wilf Day:
So Dalton McGuinty was the "Stop Kennedy, Cordiano and Duncan" candidate? Fascinating.

Fascinating numbers indeed, Wilf.

It's interesting to notice that McGuinty actually lost votes in the second round!

I also noticed that between the first round and the last round, 300 voters dropped out, including 200 voters in the last round. Now one might not assume that they would have all voted Kennedy, but that's a number of voters that greater than the difference between the winner and the loser nonetheless.

The most interesting piece of data is "Duncan eliminated, supported Kennedy". In the following round, Duncan's 509 votes (or if you want to look at his core support, his 464 votes from first round) only translated as 165 extra votes for Kennedy, a follow-up of about 32% (on 509 votes). On the other hand, 445 of Cordiano's 696 votes went to Kennedy, or 64%, and presumably, quite a lot of people either in the Kennedy camp or in the Not-Going-to McGuinty camp went to bed rather than vote in the last round.

Kennedy's support is a good example of a first-ballot leader that didn't not raise any further...

* * *

As for Coderre going to Ignatieff, I think people should stop being surprised. You can call Ignatieff the "torture candidate" all you want, it's not sticking to him. Find something else or the NDP will lose ground to the Liberals in the next election, should he be elected leader.

What really surprises me is Coderre not going to Rae's organization because Coderre was in Chrétien's camp, and that's where that camp is going. Maybe Coderre, who almost ran himself, wanted to be seen as his own man, which would be good next time there's a race. Rae and Iggy can't stick to the Liberal leadership for 10 years... They're not that type of men.


From: Toronto, Arrakis | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
-=+=-
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posted 10 May 2006 06:42 PM      Profile for -=+=-   Author's Homepage        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by frandroid_atreides:

You can call Ignatieff the "torture candidate" all you want, it's not sticking to him. Find something else or the NDP will lose ground to the Liberals in the next election, should he be elected leader.

How about the way he called the Americans "we" 43 times in an article, his support for the Iraq war, his belief America "exports" human rights to the world, the complete loathing Ukrainian Canadians have for him and his support in the New York Times for "coercive interrogation."

In the real world -- outside the Liberal leadership campaign and it robot delegates -- these charges will get play. During the 2006 election, Iggy's misteps and academic writings, especially about Ukraine, were constantly in the news. I have no doubt, if he was leader, these things would all be dredged up again and again.

My point was, are the current crop of Liberals so right-wing that they're just blindly embracing this stuff, or have I been guilty of looking at the Liberal Party through rose-coloured glasses?


From: Turtle Island | Registered: Oct 2004  |  IP: Logged
Jonas
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posted 10 May 2006 08:22 PM      Profile for Jonas     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Did anyone see Duffy tonight? He mentioned that there was a feeling 'out there'that Ignatieff was doing really well and there was talk that he might take the leadership early on in the ballots. I don't know where that would have come from, I missed the beginning of the segment.
From: Ottawa | Registered: Mar 2006  |  IP: Logged
Boom Boom
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posted 10 May 2006 09:27 PM      Profile for Boom Boom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Jonas:
Did anyone see Duffy tonight? He mentioned that there was a feeling 'out there'that Ignatieff was doing really well and there was talk that he might take the leadership early on in the ballots. I don't know where that would have come from, I missed the beginning of the segment.

Oh, I think Duffy can read the headlines as well as anyone - Iggy has the backing of the most MPs, the best organization, probably ok on finances as well. But there could be an upset if he doesn't grow after the first ballot, opening it to Rae or Kennedy. However, it's still possible that Iggy could surprise us all and win it on the second.


From: Make the rich pay! | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
josh
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posted 10 May 2006 10:13 PM      Profile for josh     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:

You can call Ignatieff the "torture candidate" all you want, it's not sticking to him. Find something else or the NDP will lose ground to the Liberals in the next election, should he be elected leader.

Actually, of the top tier candidates, Iggy would be the best one from an NDP perspective. Not only did he support the illegal Iraq war, unlike others who did, he still does. When it comes to foreign policy, he can probably out neo-con Harper.


From: the twilight zone between the U.S. and Canada | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 10 May 2006 10:45 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I don't think that the Iraq/torture issue is that big a deal for Ignatieff. The relatively small number of people who are that motivated by that issue would probably never vote Liberal anyways. Iggy has two other weaknesses that make him the best person the Liberals could choose for the NDP (aside from Ashley McIsaac).

1. He is a stuffy patrician with a speaking style that reminds me of Thurston Howell III. he will totally flop with working class voters.

2. He has zero political experience and thus is likely to make all kinds of mistakes as a rookie and the press will be mercilessly unforgiving.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
S1m0n
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posted 10 May 2006 10:59 PM      Profile for S1m0n        Edit/Delete Post
Picture, if you will, the conservative election campaign against Mike Ignatief. Every idea the conservatives have comes from the republicans, so you can be certain they'll run a US-style character assasination campaign against Ignatief (or whoever else is running). Ignatief, however, is a sitting duck. He's got way too many negatives, and more importantly, with him as leader (or even a prominant front-bencher) the liberals will be unable to attack Harper where HE's most vulnerable: his syncophantic relationship to the republicans.
From: Vancouver | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged
Boom Boom
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posted 10 May 2006 11:05 PM      Profile for Boom Boom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
Iggy has two other weaknesses that make him the best person the Liberals could choose for the NDP (aside from Ashley McIsaac).

1. He is a stuffy patrician with a speaking style that reminds me of Thurston Howell III. he will totally flop with working class voters.

2. He has zero political experience and thus is likely to make all kinds of mistakes as a rookie and the press will be mercilessly unforgiving.


I doubt many "working class" voters go to the Liberals at any rate. Iggy might attract what used to be the federal Progressive Conservatives. Conservatives that recoil in disgust from the likes of Maurice Vellacott might be attracted to Iggy. The NDP would benefit from Iggy as the LPC leader, because he's too neocon for many Liberals, but not enough to make any kind of a difference. The supporters the Libs lose to the NDP could very well be countenancd by those he attracts from the Cons. Heh - there might be Cons who gravitate to Iggy because they think Harpoon isn't militaristic enough!


From: Make the rich pay! | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
Scott Piatkowski
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posted 11 May 2006 03:28 AM      Profile for Scott Piatkowski   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by frandroid_atreides:
What really surprises me is Coderre not going to Rae's organization because Coderre was in Chrétien's camp, and that's where that camp is going. Maybe Coderre, who almost ran himself, wanted to be seen as his own man, which would be good next time there's a race. Rae and Iggy can't stick to the Liberal leadership for 10 years... They're not that type of men.

My theory is that the both Martin and Chretien camps are deliberately dispersing throughout different leadership bids, and are planning to manipulate a kind of "family reunion" (behind whoever seems strongest) on later ballots.


From: Kitchener-Waterloo | Registered: Sep 2001  |  IP: Logged
Boom Boom
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posted 11 May 2006 11:21 AM      Profile for Boom Boom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think it may simply be a matter of Coderre realizing that Iggy is the frontrunner, and it doesn't hurt to be in the winning camp. That said, I hope Iggy falters, badly, on the second ballot.
From: Make the rich pay! | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
Kenehan
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posted 11 May 2006 11:26 AM      Profile for Kenehan     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I really don't get the Ignatieff thing. He's out of step on the issues and he looks like a mean old man:

As a partisan New Democrat I hope he wins because Jack will anihilate him. However, the thought that there's even a chnace this guy could be PM scares the crap out of me.

[ 11 May 2006: Message edited by: Kenehan ]


From: Ontario | Registered: Feb 2006  |  IP: Logged
jeff house
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posted 11 May 2006 12:42 PM      Profile for jeff house     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I generally think Stockholm's analysis of these issues is correct, but I disagree with him about Ignatieff and the Iraq war.

Ignatieff make a tremendous mistake in JUDGMENT. He would have had us neckdeep in the quagmire.

Ignatieff is too willing to give credence to American war-noises, he could not be trusted with the machinery of Canadian government.

Trust and judgment are the issues, not "iraq" per se.


From: toronto | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Naci_Sey
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posted 12 May 2006 08:03 PM      Profile for Naci_Sey   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I've looked at the websites for all the candidates. Nowhere on Iggy's site is there mention of issues, which could lead one to suspect that there are no issues for him or, if there are, he'll be most amenable to fence-sitting.

The man has turned me off from day one - his arrogance and poor judgement are no endorsements for someone who aims to be PM.

As for websites, Carolyn Bennett's is one of the best I've seen for any political candidate, anywhere, anytime. (And no, I'm not a Liberal.)


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Maxx
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posted 13 May 2006 03:40 PM      Profile for Maxx     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Michael Ignatieff appears to be gaining momentum.

Stephen Owen backs Ignatieff


From: Don't blame me... I voted Liberal. | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
jeff house
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posted 13 May 2006 04:50 PM      Profile for jeff house     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
His support for the Iraq invasion should disqualify him from being a Canadian Prime Minister. I mean, talk about blind!
From: toronto | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Boom Boom
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posted 13 May 2006 05:10 PM      Profile for Boom Boom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by jeff house:
His support for the Iraq invasion should disqualify him from being a Canadian Prime Minister. I mean, talk about blind!

Didn't PM Harper himself support the Iraq invasion at one point?


From: Make the rich pay! | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
jeff house
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posted 13 May 2006 06:15 PM      Profile for jeff house     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Yes, and he is also disqualified. Or should be.
From: toronto | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Maxx
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posted 14 May 2006 12:05 AM      Profile for Maxx     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Ignatieff has his faults, but surely not as much baggage as the current PM.

I've noticed that both the Cons and the NDP are ganging up on Ignatieff these days.

Feeling the future PM??



From: Don't blame me... I voted Liberal. | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
S1m0n
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posted 14 May 2006 12:16 AM      Profile for S1m0n        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Kenehan:
I really don't get the Ignatieff thing. He's out of step on the issues and he looks like a mean old man:

Like a cross between John Kerry and the canadian tire scrooge.


From: Vancouver | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged
Maxx
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posted 14 May 2006 12:22 AM      Profile for Maxx     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Ignatieff doesn't look like a mean old man.
Women find him sexy.

He is certainly better looking than either Harper or Layton, or Duceppe...


From: Don't blame me... I voted Liberal. | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
unionist
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posted 14 May 2006 12:41 AM      Profile for unionist     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Maxx:
Ignatieff doesn't look like a mean old man.
Women find him sexy.

I read somewhere that men -- all men -- find Condie Rice sexy. Is that true, Maxx? I personally think she looks like a mean old man.


From: Vote QS! | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged
jester
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posted 14 May 2006 12:49 AM      Profile for jester        Edit/Delete Post
He will look a lot older by the time he convinces all the herbivores to vote for him.
From: Against stupidity, the Gods themselves contend in vain | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
Maxx
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posted 14 May 2006 03:31 AM      Profile for Maxx     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
I read somewhere that men -- all men -- find Condie Rice sexy. Is that true, Maxx?
No. *hahaha*

From: Don't blame me... I voted Liberal. | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 14 May 2006 10:21 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Women find him sexy.

You know its very sexist. We expect women to vote for men on the basis of sex appeal, but we never seem to expect men to vote for sexy women. I don't remember any theories about Sheila Copps or Alexa MacDonough sweeping the male vote due to sesx appeal. I guess the assumption is that men vote based on serious things like issues and philosophy, whereas women are influenced by superficial things like sex appeal.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stargazer
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posted 14 May 2006 10:40 AM      Profile for Stargazer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Blah! He's not sexy in any way shape or form.
From: Inside every cynical person, there is a disappointed idealist. | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Michelle
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posted 14 May 2006 12:26 PM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Yeah, I'm wondering which women Maxx is thinking about who find Iggy sexy. Not because he's older - lots of older guys are sexy - but because he's a candy ass who has spent his life in sheltered academia and yet thinks it's okay to torture people.
From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Melsky
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posted 14 May 2006 12:31 PM      Profile for Melsky   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Michelle:
Yeah, I'm wondering which women Maxx is thinking about who find Iggy sexy. Not because he's older - lots of older guys are sexy - but because he's a candy ass who has spent his life in sheltered academia and yet thinks it's okay to torture people.

He must have got him confused with Iggy Pop.


From: Toronto | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Adam T
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posted 14 May 2006 08:43 PM      Profile for Adam T     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
On Scott Brison:
(From Globe and Mail)
But Prof. Knoerr expressed doubt, rated him a 1+ because, even though he understands French well and displays confidence when he speaks, he made a lot of vocabulary and grammatical mistakes.

In other words, he's arrogant, even when he's wrong.

Isn't that just typical?


From: Richmond B.C | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
Adam T
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posted 14 May 2006 08:55 PM      Profile for Adam T     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
My favorites, from most to least
Not that anybody cares

1.Stephane Dion
2.Bob Rae
3.Martha Hall Findley (I prefer others to her, but she has better French skills than they do)
4.Maurizio Bevilacqua
5.Gerard Kennedy
The Globe and Mail article explains his reason for moving to Quebec
"Mr. Kennedy, who garnered the same rating (a 2 out of 4), made fewer grammatical and syntax errors, but had a "very limited" vocabulary, and spoke in a halting manner. The good news is that he has a base to build on, and vocabulary can be learned more quickly than language structure, so Prof. Knoerr judged him most likely to be able to improve."
He could be functionally bilingual by the end of the leadership race.
6.Carolyn Bennett
7.Ken Dryden

I wouldn't consider voting Liberal with the following as leader:
8.Hedy Fry
9.Scott Brison
10.Joe Volpe
11.Michael Ignatieff

Without French as a consideration
1.Stephane Dion
2.Bob Rae
3.Maurizio Bevilacqua
4.Carolyn Bennett
5.Ken Dryden
6.Martha Hall Findley
7.Gerard Kennedy

[ 14 May 2006: Message edited by: Adam T ]


From: Richmond B.C | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 14 May 2006 10:51 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
If the Liberals know what's good for them, they will pick Ashley McIsaac as their new leader!
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Boom Boom
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posted 14 May 2006 11:02 PM      Profile for Boom Boom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
If the Liberals know what's good for them, they will pick Ashley McIsaac as their new leader!

...said the NDP agent provocateur.


From: Make the rich pay! | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Lefty
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posted 16 May 2006 02:03 AM      Profile for West Coast Lefty     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Well, my favourite political snafu from the past few days is Gerard Kennedy bragging about his barely functional French skills!!!!.

Yes, our favourite Liberal slapstick entertainer got dissed by the Globe and Mail's Saturday front page story claiming that he flunked the Globe's bilingualism test. Gerard's minions then go totally ballistic, and are "rewarded" by this corrected article in Monday's Globe saying that our hero passed the French test...but just barely, and crucially, the test confirmed that Kennedy would be totally ineffective in an actual French-language debate with Duceppe and the other leaders.

quote:
Dr. Knoerr rated both men (Kennedy and Bevilacqua) as 2- on a test that requires a 2 or better to pass, but she said the scores count as level 2, and they would not fail.

"The 2 is the minimum grade to pass. It's a 50 per cent [score]," she said.

"A level 2 would be considered as bilingual, following the competencies in the evaluation grid, but a level 2 could not hold their own in a debate against a native speaker," she said. "But being able to function in a debate is a higher standard of competence than being able to hold a conversation with a native speaker."


quote:
Mr. Kennedy made fewer errors in grammar and structure, but had a more limited vocabulary and hesitated as he spoke -- although she noted that might make him more apt to improve than others because vocabulary and expressions can usually be learned more quickly than language structure.

So, to sum up, Kennedy's "campaign" has seen fit to shout to the rooftops that their candidate cannot handle himself in a French debate and can barely carry on a simple conversation in French. Bravo, mon Gérard!!!


From: Victoria, B.C. | Registered: Feb 2003  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 16 May 2006 09:44 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Quite frankly Gerard Kennedy speaks French like my ass chews gum! and you can quote me on that.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Boom Boom
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posted 16 May 2006 09:53 AM      Profile for Boom Boom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I don't think Kennedy's leadership bid is going anywhere, regardless. I think he's dangling for an important job within the caucus, and if hell freezes over, in the next Cabinet.
From: Make the rich pay! | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 16 May 2006 10:57 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think Kennedy may soon realize that he made a big mistake in running at all. He had a good job as an Ontario cabinet minister and he woudl have been a top contender to succeed McGuinty someday. Now he is stuck on a suicidal run for the federal leadership and if he loses, he may or may not get elected to Parliament and he may or may not be on the government side for a long, long time.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Boom Boom
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posted 16 May 2006 02:33 PM      Profile for Boom Boom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
He may not be on the government side for a long, long time, but he'll be soaking up experience and eventually will run again. I doubt the next leader, especially if it's Iggy, will stick around as Leader of the Opposition, for say, five years, before Libs stab him in the back, demanding change.

I think Kennedy is being a smart cookie. I very much doubt he'll win the leadership this time, but, five years or so from now - he'll be a very strong contender, if he sticks it out that long as an MP. Regardless, as an MP, he's going to be earning a nice, hefty federal pension when he ever retires.


From: Make the rich pay! | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
josh
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posted 16 August 2006 11:20 AM      Profile for josh     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Rumour is that David Orchard will endorse Dion.

http://sinestra.blogspot.com/

http://canadiancerberus.blogspot.com/


From: the twilight zone between the U.S. and Canada | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
Proaxiom
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posted 16 August 2006 11:32 AM      Profile for Proaxiom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Rumour is that David Orchard will endorse Dion.

Will he first require Dion to sign a statement promising not to merge the party with the NDP?


From: East of the Sun, West of the Moon | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
johnpauljones
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posted 16 August 2006 11:45 AM      Profile for johnpauljones     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by josh:
Rumour is that David Orchard will endorse Dion.


so it seems we have a former PC running for the leadership in Brison.

A former NDP Premier running for the leadership in Rae

A former PC Leadership candidate who is now a liberal supporting Dion.

My question is this. Are any of the leadership canadidates liberals? or are they all other party rejects


From: City of Toronto | Registered: Nov 2004  |  IP: Logged
Boom Boom
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posted 16 August 2006 02:48 PM      Profile for Boom Boom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
AFAIK, Dion has always been a Liberal, and I suspect Bennett, Hall Findlay, and Iggy are likewise. Oh, and that other guy, the one that was shaking down kids for their allowance money (is he still in the race - Joe Volpe?). Maybe Ken Dryden has always been a Liberal, too.

[ 16 August 2006: Message edited by: Boom Boom ]


From: Make the rich pay! | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
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posted 16 August 2006 05:54 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
So it looks like it'll be down to Iggy and Rae, with Dion as kingmaker.
From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Boom Boom
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posted 16 August 2006 06:05 PM      Profile for Boom Boom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Kennedy can be a kingmaker too, right?
From: Make the rich pay! | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
jfras
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posted 17 August 2006 02:58 PM      Profile for jfras        Edit/Delete Post
They may have not always been Liberals, but they have always been liberal.
From: Calgary | Registered: Jun 2005  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
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posted 17 August 2006 03:05 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Boom Boom:
Kennedy can be a kingmaker too, right?

I doubt it. I think Dion is likely to come in third. Kennedy's leadership race has been a flop and his star is sinking like a stone, at least for now.


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Kenehan
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posted 17 August 2006 03:32 PM      Profile for Kenehan     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Lord Palmerston:
So it looks like it'll be down to Iggy and Rae, with Dion as kingmaker.
Or Dion as the compromise candidate who comes up the middle.

I think he's emerging as the McGuinty of this race. He has the fewest negatives and is becoming everyone's second choice.

There are clearly people in the Liberals who loathe the idea of Rae as leader and a different group whe think Ignatieff would be a disaster. People don't feel that way about Dion - and that could make a difference.

Also expect Dion to get a bump when this guy starts on his job in the Fall. If Quebec is top-of-mind a lot of Liberals will look to the Quebec candidate with impeccable federalist credentials.


From: Ontario | Registered: Feb 2006  |  IP: Logged
Boom Boom
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posted 17 August 2006 04:34 PM      Profile for Boom Boom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Kenehan:
Or Dion as the compromise candidate who comes up the middle.

I think he's emerging as the McGuinty of this race. He has the fewest negatives and is becoming everyone's second choice.


Where are we getting all this information about Dion all of a sudden? I've seen no coverage of anything about him in the news this summer. since about May or June. Anyone have a recent link?


From: Make the rich pay! | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
josh
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posted 17 August 2006 06:03 PM      Profile for josh     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
http://tinyurl.com/om6uh
From: the twilight zone between the U.S. and Canada | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
TCD
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posted 17 August 2006 08:15 PM      Profile for TCD     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Also here and here.

Dion is the one who will take it, I think. He's underperforming and overdelivering and he's not making enemies doing it. Combined with the fact that nobody can think of a bad thing to say about him, and the fact that people can think of lots of bad things to say about the other frontrunners, means he's emerging as the guy everyone can live with.


From: Toronto | Registered: Apr 2005  |  IP: Logged
mcarthur1
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posted 17 August 2006 09:34 PM      Profile for mcarthur1        Edit/Delete Post
Wow. Great site. Lurked here for a long time. I'm a dedicated card carrying Liberal following the race. This site is so good I now come here before looking at naked women on the net while masturbating instead of after!
From: Saskatoon | Registered: Aug 2006  |  IP: Logged
Kenehan
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posted 18 August 2006 06:03 AM      Profile for Kenehan     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
And that's enough of mcarthur1...
From: Ontario | Registered: Feb 2006  |  IP: Logged
Michelle
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posted 18 August 2006 06:05 AM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Lurk for a while longer, macarthur1, until you figure out what's appropriate here and what isn't.
From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
johnpauljones
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posted 18 August 2006 12:37 PM      Profile for johnpauljones     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
to be fair Mcarthur1 is pretty normal amongst Federal Liberals only caring about their own satisfaction rather than the Canada

Umm they just can't keep their hands off the public purse

ok I better stop now before i go too far


From: City of Toronto | Registered: Nov 2004  |  IP: Logged
josh
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posted 30 August 2006 09:11 AM      Profile for josh     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Iggy: Vote for me or I'll quit.

quote:

Toronto MP Michael Ignatieff won't commit to running in the next election if he loses his bid to become leader of the federal Liberal party.

"Depends who's leader," Ignatieff said yesterday when asked at a meeting with the Toronto Star editorial board if he would run for the party in the next election if he loses the leadership vote in early December.



http://tinyurl.com/mh3yx


From: the twilight zone between the U.S. and Canada | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 30 August 2006 09:59 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
That is a REAL gaffe. Ignatieff shoudl know that you ALWAYS commit yourself to running again win or lose in the leadership - then if you lose and you break that promise - nobody cares.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
A political
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posted 30 August 2006 10:22 AM      Profile for A political     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
That is a REAL gaffe. Ignatieff shoudl know that you ALWAYS commit yourself to running again win or lose in the leadership - then if you lose and you break that promise - nobody cares.

His lack of political experience is beginning to show - he has learned to lie well yet!


From: GTA | Registered: Sep 2005  |  IP: Logged
Boom Boom
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posted 30 August 2006 10:41 AM      Profile for Boom Boom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I've always liked Dion, even if I have great difficulty following him in conversation.
From: Make the rich pay! | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
Fidel
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posted 30 August 2006 09:36 PM      Profile for Fidel     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
Ignatieff shoudl know that you ALWAYS commit yourself to running again win or lose in the leadership -

What's with the Liberal Party and Norman Bates look alikes ?.


From: Viva La Revolución | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Paul Gross
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posted 30 August 2006 10:11 PM      Profile for Paul Gross   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
That is a REAL gaffe. Ignatieff shoudl know that you ALWAYS commit yourself to running again win or lose in the leadership - then if you lose and you break that promise - nobody cares.

Michael Kinsley once defined a gaffe as when a politician tells the truth in public.

I give Count Iggy credit for simply being honest. Although he could have gone further with forthcomingness and the honesty and the sharing. He said "it depends on who wins" but declined to dish deeper. (Background music to Iggy's deep thoughts provided by the Clash..."Should I stay or should I go? If I go there will be trouble. An' if I stay it will be double. This indecision's bugging me. If you don't want me, set me free. Exactly who I'm supposed to be?")

It could be a party game to divide the other candidates into "Iggy Stays" and "Iggy Pops" columns.

I frankly be surprised if Igster (or Rae for that matter) ran in the next election if he was not leader. The only reason he humped back to Canada (and Etobicoke of all places) was to fulfill his destiny as The One to become the Prime.


From: central Centretown in central Canada | Registered: Jan 2003  |  IP: Logged
josh
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posted 31 August 2006 05:52 AM      Profile for josh     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:

Ignatieff clarified his intentions in an interview yesterday with The Canadian Press.

"Let's be clear. I am planning to run in the next election in Etobicoke-Lakeshore. I love being an MP and I've enjoyed it enormously and I'm looking forward to doing it again," said Ignatieff, who first won election in January.

He added that, whoever wins the leadership race, he will do whatever he can to help him or her defeat Prime Minister Stephen Harper in the next election.

Asked why he didn't say that when the Star first asked, Ignatieff said he considered hypothetical questions about his political future should he lose the leadership contest to be moot.

"I feel I have good reason to believe I'm ahead in the race and I plan to win. So the hypothetical is not going to arise."



http://tinyurl.com/ol22q


From: the twilight zone between the U.S. and Canada | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Lefty
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posted 31 August 2006 12:47 PM      Profile for West Coast Lefty     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I still find Iggy to be wishy-washy on this point - "planning to run" is a classic dodge, as we all know that "plans" can change so quickly in politics. He didn't say "I will definitely run in the next election" or "I'm being nominated on X date" which would have been a 100% confirmation.

quote:
I frankly be surprised if Igster (or Rae for that matter) ran in the next election if he was not leader.

I agree - although my fondest hope (as an NDP partisan) is that Iggy wins, Rae is shamed into running for MP and then has to sit on his ass for the next 2 years as the election is delayed until fall 2008 or spring 2009, and then gets his butt kicked in a Toronto riding by the local NDP candidate. A man can dream, right?


From: Victoria, B.C. | Registered: Feb 2003  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 01 September 2006 06:36 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Delegate Election Meetings start this month, using a proportional representation system that makes Italy's look simple.

A DEM will take place in all 308 local riding associations across the country. All DEMs take place across the country on the same weekend, September 29 to October 1.

At the convention, delegates, if voting on the first ballot, must vote for the candidate they supported at the DEM.

At the DEM, voting members are given a two-part ballot. The first part – the Leadership Portion – lists the names of the leadership candidates and includes an independent option. The second half – the Delegate Portion – will list the names of the delegate candidates.

Each voting member at a riding association DEM votes for one leadership candidate and up to fourteen delegates. The fourteen delegates who are elected at each riding association DEM must included two male youths, two female youths, four adult males, four adult females, and two members of the Senior Liberals Commission (one of whom shall be a man and one of whom shall be a woman).

The rules run to 41 pages:

quote:
Step 1: Translate the votes received for each Leadership Contestant into percentages . . .

Step 2: . . get the "Raw Delegate Count" for each Leadership Contestant.

Step 3: Round the "Raw Delegate Count" for each Leadership Contestant to the nearest whole number. . .



Steps 4(a) and 4(b): (You don't want to read. They juggle the rounding process.)

Now the real fun starts:

quote:
(b) Determining which delegate candidates are elected

Step 1: Produce a list (the "Ranked Delegate Candidate List") of all delegate candidates in rank order of votes obtained, noting beside each name (a) the Leadership Contestant for whom the delegate candidate declared support, (b) whichever apply of the demographic categories of male, female, youth and senior.

Step 2: Produce a two-part checklist. The first part will have a section for each Leadership Contestant, indicating the number of delegates allocated to that Leadership Contestant. The second part will be standardized, indicating each demographic category, and the number of delegates who must be elected in each category: two youth male, two youth female, two seniors, four male and four female.

Step 3: Starting at the top of the Ranked Delegate Candidate List, determine if that delegate candidate's Leadership Contestant is entitled to more delegates than have previously been declared elected. If not, then the delegate candidate is not elected as a delegate. If so, then check the list of demographic categories, starting with youth male and proceeding in the following order: youth female, seniors, male and female to determine a demographic category with a vacancy in which a delegate candidate has not been elected and if the delegate candidate comes within such demographic category, then the delegate candidate is elected as a delegate;

Write the name of each delegate candidate who is elected in the appropriate place on both the leadership and demographic checklists. Repeat the process for all delegate candidates, proceeding down the list in rank order. If, at any time, the candidate does not qualify to fill a remaining vacancy on both the leadership and demographic checklists, that candidate is not elected. Proceed until all possible delegate positions are filled.


Any vacancies are then filled by appointment by the "Under-represented Leadership Contestant."

Simple, really. Open-list PR (by highest remainders) with quotas for six demographic categories.

[ 01 September 2006: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Boom Boom
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posted 14 September 2006 04:39 PM      Profile for Boom Boom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
David Herle of the Gandalf Group released their poll today on Don Newman's 'Politics' show. It shows Ken Dryden in the lead followed by Bob Rae, with Iggy down at third.
From: Make the rich pay! | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 14 September 2006 04:52 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Who did they poll? If it was the general public all they were testing was name recognition, hence Dryden is on top. This is meaningless.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Boom Boom
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posted 14 September 2006 05:46 PM      Profile for Boom Boom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I don't remember who they polled, but Herle said besides name recognition, it is the fact that Dryden (paraphasing here) is seen to be a man of integrity, and, since leaving hockey, someone who gets things done. Also in the poll is that Dion is the strongest Liberal in Quebec by a good margin (he came in fourth after Iggy, overall).
From: Make the rich pay! | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
Boom Boom
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posted 14 September 2006 06:31 PM      Profile for Boom Boom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The poll is online here but it's a very annoying (and slow) .pdf/Adobe Photoshop file.
From: Make the rich pay! | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
Policywonk
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posted 14 September 2006 08:09 PM      Profile for Policywonk     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
They polled Liberal voters, not members. While this may indicate Dryden will do better than expected, I doubt he is amongst the frontrunners.
From: Edmonton | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
North Shore
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posted 14 September 2006 08:49 PM      Profile for North Shore     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
...Which is really too bad. After the article in the G&M this week, I really warmed up to Dryden. He seems like a decent guy (Worked for Bush - twice!) and not at all a say-what-is-expedient-to-get-elected type of a politician. Plus, I really liked his piece about the liberals being a party of inclusiveness...
From: Victoriahhhh | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
Boom Boom
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posted 15 September 2006 03:34 AM      Profile for Boom Boom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Herle said on the Newman show that Rae is clearly the best politician in the bunch, but there will be a small percentage of Ontario voters that will never vote for him. Dion has a similar problem in Quebec, but Herle said that those who oppose Dion in Quebec are all BQ and separatists anyway. Herle said not to count Iggy out, as he has a great organization behind him. Newman made the point that Dryden's campaign is small and in financial difficulty, but Dryden clearly "connects".
From: Make the rich pay! | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
josh
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posted 15 September 2006 05:22 AM      Profile for josh     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
31% for Dion in Quebec is nothing to sneeze at if you are a Liberal. That would make it impossible for the Cons to get anywhere near a majority government even if Dion did worse in the ROC than Martin. It would also re-establish the federal party as a force in the province.
From: the twilight zone between the U.S. and Canada | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
Boom Boom
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posted 15 September 2006 05:35 AM      Profile for Boom Boom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Whoever wins the LPC eadership, and I hope it's anyone but Iggy, will have to put Dion in a high profile cabinet post if the LPC miraculously wins another election. Dion's Quebec support will be indispensible for the Liberals.
From: Make the rich pay! | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
Boom Boom
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posted 15 September 2006 05:37 AM      Profile for Boom Boom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Hall Findlay, Volpe, and Fry are all at the bottom of LPC leadership support with single digits in this poll.
From: Make the rich pay! | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 15 September 2006 06:06 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Actually, they polled all Canadians - so its nothing but a measure of name recognition.

Did you know that right up until midway through the primaries in 2004, national polls in the US of Democrats kep having Joe Lieberman as the top choice for nominee? Of course he was never in the running, but he had by far the highest name recognition because he ran for Vice-President in 2000.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
josh
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posted 15 September 2006 08:04 AM      Profile for josh     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Bennett drops out. Endorses Rae:

quote:

Liberal leadership hopeful Carolyn Bennett is dropping out of the race and throwing her support to Bob Rae.
Bennett, a Toronto MP and former cabinet minister, is to announce her decision later today in Vancouver at a news conference with Rae, former NDP premier of Ontario.


http://tinyurl.com/qpnwt


From: the twilight zone between the U.S. and Canada | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
oldgoat
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posted 15 September 2006 10:14 AM      Profile for oldgoat     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
This new thread is now the old thread, to be succeeded no doubt by another new thread which will itself pass on in the fullness of time only to arise phoenix like etc...etc....

Metaphors abound.

edited to add:

oh yeah, I'm closing it for length.

[ 15 September 2006: Message edited by: oldgoat ]


From: The 10th circle | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged

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