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Topic: New Strategic Counsel poll has NDP at 14%
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Sanityatlast
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 12414
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posted 18 April 2006 11:59 AM
Harper is doing a good job of governing to date. He would win a majority if there was an election in the next 2 years. This isn't to condone or not his policies but he's giving the people what they want. He's following up on his election platform. A lot will depend on Quebec. The soft Quebec sovereigntists are being listed to. This may be the hard sovereigntist worse nightmare. If the cons build on their election success in Quebec then it will be a con majority next time around. The policies are another beast altogether. The Libs and NDP are silent because they don't want an election. The people don't want an election. The NDP and BQ are struggling to find a road to nudge the Con agenda but not enough to drive it off course and into an election. On the positive side, Layton is staying away from Liberal overtures. that would be a death sentence for the movement. The NDP has a chance (again) to be the alternate voice in English Canada and should be trying to upsage the Liberals.
From: Alberta | Registered: Apr 2006
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S1m0n
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11427
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posted 18 April 2006 01:09 PM
quote: Originally posted by Sanityatlast: Harper is doing a good job of governing to date.
Harper hasn't done anything yet. If by governing you mean "do nothing", then yes, he's in good shape.
From: Vancouver | Registered: Dec 2005
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thorin_bane
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 6194
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posted 18 April 2006 11:39 PM
quote: Originally posted by Maxx: The economy was not booming constantly during those 13 years.If the NDP ever cared about the economy maybe they wouldn't be at 14% right now.
Actually the economy was in a boom ofr 11 1/2 of those years and was stagnent the other year and a half. At least that is what Paul Martin use to claim . SO which is it, either not booming that much or pauly lying again.?
From: Looking at the despair of Detroit from across the river! | Registered: Jun 2004
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LukeVanc
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 2735
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posted 19 April 2006 08:54 PM
Hysteria much? Aggregate numbers give you a much more accurate reflection of voter support for political parties. There is no election going on right now, so can we please stop crying over the results of a single poll!Maxx, let me give you a little lesson on economics. Governments like to use selective statistics that tend to make them look good. The media plays into this by using a few basic and highly misleading statistics to gauge the success of government policies. These statistics give you quantitative measurements but lack critical qualitative assessments. E.g., GDP or "economic growth": just because the economy grows 3% per year doesn't mean that everyone's income is rising by 3%. Typically it means the top 10% are getting 10% to 15% increases while the bottom 10, 25% of the population sees no growth in income, and even negative growth with high inflation and/or high interest rates. "Unemployment rate": 6%, 5%, etc... just because the unemployment rate is low does not mean, qualitatively, that people are getting good jobs or better jobs than before. For instance, BC's unemployment rate has been dropping steadly but wage rates have remained stagnant. That's because the job growth has been in non-union call centre and retail sector employment. The unemployment rate in Canada could go from 8% to 6% in a single year, and you would say the government was doing a good job. But this statistic does not tell us the quality of the jobs that have been created and lost. The Liberals were able to wave around GDP growth statistics and unemployment rate statistics to claim that they were doing a good job. However, its far from that simple. Plus there is the simple matter of the Liberals balancing the budget by shifting the tax burden onto the provinces, which then in turn shifted the tax burden onto municipalities. So we have seen a dramatic increase in property tax rates and a stall in capital spending. So rather than being fiscal genuises, the Liberals merely shifted the tax burden onto lower levels of government and hid tax in the form of excessive EI premiums, while withholding investment in capital infrastructure, which will have negative long term consequences. Suffice to say, the Liberals did an excellent PR job fooling people into thinking they were sound fiscal managers, but this amounted to nothing but puffery.
From: Vancouver | Registered: Jun 2002
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island empire
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 8064
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posted 19 April 2006 11:42 PM
quote: Originally posted by Stockholm: Polling companies do not purposely over- or under-estimate support for anyone. It's in their interest to be as accurate as possible. They don't just make up numbers from thin air.What SC MIGHT have done was to ask a slew of questions about the Liberal leadership BEFORE asking the vote question, which might skew things towards the Liberals. But I don't know.
they could be doing a lot of other things too. for instance, the sample might not be representative (historically, SC oversamples conservative voters). also, they might weight the sample for party id, to try to compensate for size and moe - this can lead to strange results. also, they could not be randomising - so that the ndp is always named second last, for instance. there could be more questions (before the support question) that concern issues on which the ndp isn't popular (running the economy, for instance). and so forth. that said, and as much as there were all kinds of things wrong with the strategic council's findings during the election campaign, i wouldn't be surprised if their picture of ndp support was accurate. we've been really out of the news lately.
From: montréal, canada | Registered: Jan 2005
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V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193
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posted 20 April 2006 01:14 AM
I don't like the NDP's strategy of attacking the contenders in the Liberal leadership race. I want to see the NDP presenting itself as the alternative to the Conservatives (a stance which would truly draw down Liberal support). That being said I assume Jack is playing the soft pedal while he tries to negotiate some side deals in the upcoming budget. After the budget drops I hope the NDP's gloves really come off again & its poll numbers to show some upward movement.A prediction: the Liberals main complaint will be the "budget does not balance." A question: when will the opposition days be? rumour has it next week committee assignments will be made.
From: - | Registered: May 2005
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