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Author Topic: New Strategic Counsel poll has NDP at 14%
rasmus
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posted 18 April 2006 02:42 AM      Profile for rasmus   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The recent Environics poll had the NDP in a statistical tie with the liberals at 21/22%. Now a Strategic Counsel poll has them at 14%, down from 19% in the last SC poll (in February, around the election). Obviously more data is needed to know what is happening.


PM's agenda "resonating", Globe claims poll suggests


From: Fortune favours the bold | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Aristotleded24
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posted 18 April 2006 03:14 AM      Profile for Aristotleded24   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I don't think the agenda is "resonating" so much as people are willing to give the new government a chance, plus the momentum the Conservatives gained (I think, anyways) would make them the choice of party to vote for to win a majority and have a "stable" government.
From: Winnipeg | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
josh
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posted 18 April 2006 07:21 AM      Profile for josh     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
This is a "honeymoon" period. So, the Con results are not surprising. In any both the Globe and SC are so far up Harper's ass they can see his tonsils. As for the NDP result, I suspect the real result is in splitting the difference between the SC and Environics polls.
From: the twilight zone between the U.S. and Canada | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stargazer
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posted 18 April 2006 08:31 AM      Profile for Stargazer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I just hope that when we have a new Liberal leader, and things start getting hotter for Harper, the opposition parties will trot out all of the Cons mistakes, and play them up so that the general punlic has the real picture of just what kind of government they can chose to live under.

No wonder he has the clowns he calls his members in silence mode. Pure self-destruction can not be tolerated. But I'm confident it will happen sooner rather than later.


From: Inside every cynical person, there is a disappointed idealist. | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Frustrated Mess
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posted 18 April 2006 09:56 AM      Profile for Frustrated Mess   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
As well, the NDP and the opposition in general are doing nothing to prevent Harper from micro-managing the agenda. They seem to be giving him a free ride even though his apple cart has only three wheels and is tottering badly as though it wants to be pushed over.
From: doom without the gloom | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Sanityatlast
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posted 18 April 2006 11:59 AM      Profile for Sanityatlast        Edit/Delete Post
Harper is doing a good job of governing to date. He would win a majority if there was an election in the next 2 years.

This isn't to condone or not his policies but he's giving the people what they want. He's following up on his election platform.

A lot will depend on Quebec. The soft Quebec sovereigntists are being listed to. This may be the hard sovereigntist worse nightmare. If the cons build on their election success in Quebec then it will be a con majority next time around.

The policies are another beast altogether. The Libs and NDP are silent because they don't want an election. The people don't want an election. The NDP and BQ are struggling to find a road to nudge the Con agenda but not enough to drive it off course and into an election.

On the positive side, Layton is staying away from Liberal overtures. that would be a death sentence for the movement. The NDP has a chance (again) to be the alternate voice in English Canada and should be trying to upsage the Liberals.


From: Alberta | Registered: Apr 2006  |  IP: Logged
pookie
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posted 18 April 2006 12:17 PM      Profile for pookie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Re: agenda resonating - what agenda would that be? His approach is to make underwhelming promises (e.g. child care) that can be quickly implemented. The problem is that after two years of total incompetence, a lot of Cdns seem to tolerate being underwhelmed, quite nicely.
From: there's no "there" there | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged
Scott Piatkowski
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posted 18 April 2006 01:02 PM      Profile for Scott Piatkowski   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
It's one poll and it seems to be an anomoly. That is all.
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fusangite
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posted 18 April 2006 01:04 PM      Profile for fusangite     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think there are two factors conspiring to cause the reduction in support. The first is the perception that the NDP is not taking as hard a line against the new government as the Liberal Party is, particularly with respect to childcare. The second is that the Liberal leadership race, until Brison enters it, is basically about how to turn the Liberals into a third-way party a la Tony Blair, Bill Clinton, Gerhard Schroeder.

With Chretien's election financing reforms in place, people like Rae become viable candidates now that direct corporate links don't pay the kind of immediate dividends they once did.


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S1m0n
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posted 18 April 2006 01:09 PM      Profile for S1m0n        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Sanityatlast:
Harper is doing a good job of governing to date.

Harper hasn't done anything yet. If by governing you mean "do nothing", then yes, he's in good shape.


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Naci_Sey
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posted 18 April 2006 01:17 PM      Profile for Naci_Sey   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
A big part of the problem with the NDP is Layton's makeover. I liked him originally - his humanity, fire and intense concern for the downtrodden. But his advisors urged him to tone it down, and in following that advice Layton has gone too far from the man he is. He now comes across as insincere, holier-than-thou, and without strong convictions.

The strategy of taking the high road isn't itself a problem, but taking that road can be tricky without at the same time appearing arrogant.


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fusangite
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posted 18 April 2006 01:18 PM      Profile for fusangite     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by S1m0n:

Harper hasn't done anything yet. If by governing you mean "do nothing", then yes, he's in good shape.


Doing nothing is preferable to almost anything else the Harper government could be up to.

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Marg Bedore
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posted 18 April 2006 01:58 PM      Profile for Marg Bedore     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Layton has said nothing about cancelled programs such as those on the environment. He is basking in the sun on the same side of the House as Harper. Thus he is at 14% Many voted for him because they were afraid of Harper and didn't want the Liberals.
What a disappointment!

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Marg Bedore
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posted 18 April 2006 07:24 PM      Profile for Marg Bedore     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Harper has just lauded Layton for supporting his daycare and suggesting only changes. Where did the NDP policy of universal daycare go?
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Left Turn
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posted 18 April 2006 07:30 PM      Profile for Left Turn     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Note that this is a "Strategic Counsel" poll. They tend to overestimate Conservative support, and underestimate NDP support. It's owned by Allan Gregg, who has shown himself time and time again to be nothing more than a Conservative shill.
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Naci_Sey
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posted 18 April 2006 07:44 PM      Profile for Naci_Sey   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Left Turn:
Note that this is a "Strategic Counsel" poll. They tend to overestimate Conservative support, and underestimate NDP support. It's owned by Allan Gregg, who has shown himself time and time again to be nothing more than a Conservative shill.

I can also report recent experiences with a couple of big pollsters that also do online polling. Some of their questions are definitely leading. I've called these pollsters on it. In two cases, the initial questions forced a choice from among three options - but there should have been four options. Then all subsequent questions were based on the initial choice. Nasty! And unethical.

[ 18 April 2006: Message edited by: Naci_Sey ]


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fusangite
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posted 18 April 2006 07:58 PM      Profile for fusangite     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Strategic Counsel, like Compas is a Tory pollster that tends to find Tory support is higher than it really is. However, Strategic Counsel has no particular record of under-estimating NDP support.

Hopefully, the next Reid or SES poll will clear up whether this is a rogue poll. Does anyone have the regional breakdown figures? They might help us understand what is happening.


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Maxx
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posted 18 April 2006 09:22 PM      Profile for Maxx     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
On Mike Duffy Live, Brad Lavigne said the NDP could support the conservative child care plan. Layton is looking more and more like Harper's pawn every passing day.
From: Don't blame me... I voted Liberal. | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 18 April 2006 10:40 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The Liberals had 13 years to bring in child care and never lifted a finger - they have no lessons to teach anyone.

If Harper wants to make massive concessionws to the NDP on child care - then good for him.


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Maxx
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posted 18 April 2006 11:21 PM      Profile for Maxx     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The economy was not booming constantly during those 13 years.

If the NDP ever cared about the economy maybe they wouldn't be at 14% right now.


From: Don't blame me... I voted Liberal. | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
thorin_bane
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posted 18 April 2006 11:36 PM      Profile for thorin_bane     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Left Turn:
Note that this is a "Strategic Counsel" poll. They tend to overestimate Conservative support, and underestimate NDP support. It's owned by Allan Gregg, who has shown himself time and time again to be nothing more than a Conservative shill.

ACtually Allan Greeg in fact worked for the PC's at one time. Although he is not as right winger as the reform-a-tory's


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thorin_bane
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posted 18 April 2006 11:39 PM      Profile for thorin_bane     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Maxx:
The economy was not booming constantly during those 13 years.

If the NDP ever cared about the economy maybe they wouldn't be at 14% right now.


Actually the economy was in a boom ofr 11 1/2 of those years and was stagnent the other year and a half. At least that is what Paul Martin use to claim . SO which is it, either not booming that much or pauly lying again.?


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Stockholm
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posted 19 April 2006 12:05 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
If the Liberals weren't lying condescending crooks maybe they wouldn't be at 22% in the polls anmd barely holding on to second place!
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Rob Cottingham
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posted 19 April 2006 01:06 AM      Profile for Rob Cottingham   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by fusangite:
However, Strategic Counsel has no particular record of under-estimating NDP support.

Just a guess: you were nowhere near BC during our last provincial election, were you?


From: Vancouver, BC | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
fusangite
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posted 19 April 2006 12:22 PM      Profile for fusangite     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Rob Cottingham:

Just a guess: you were nowhere near BC during our last provincial election, were you?



I meant nationally. Nationally, it is in the interests of Strategic Counsel to over-estimate NDP support. In Saskatchewan, BC, and Manitoba provincial elections, it is in their interests to under-estimate it. By the same token, I would expect SC to over-estimate Green Party support in BC.

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Stockholm
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posted 19 April 2006 03:35 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Polling companies do not purposely over- or under-estimate support for anyone. It's in their interest to be as accurate as possible. They don't just make up numbers from thin air.

What SC MIGHT have done was to ask a slew of questions about the Liberal leadership BEFORE asking the vote question, which might skew things towards the Liberals. But I don't know.


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Sanityatlast
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posted 19 April 2006 04:42 PM      Profile for Sanityatlast        Edit/Delete Post
If the figure is 14% then the reality is it might be 12% or 16%. Not a good scenario. Not even a good scenario if support is underestimated. The Libs are in a holding pattern and the NDP should be filling the vacuum and not languishing under 20%. Unfortunately it's the Cons who are capitalizing in Quebec with the Liberal demise. Quebec is going to give the Cons a majority govermnmnet in the next election unless the Libs or NDP stop equating federalism with centralization.
From: Alberta | Registered: Apr 2006  |  IP: Logged
LukeVanc
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posted 19 April 2006 08:54 PM      Profile for LukeVanc     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Hysteria much? Aggregate numbers give you a much more accurate reflection of voter support for political parties. There is no election going on right now, so can we please stop crying over the results of a single poll!

Maxx, let me give you a little lesson on economics. Governments like to use selective statistics that tend to make them look good. The media plays into this by using a few basic and highly misleading statistics to gauge the success of government policies. These statistics give you quantitative measurements but lack critical qualitative assessments.

E.g., GDP or "economic growth": just because the economy grows 3% per year doesn't mean that everyone's income is rising by 3%. Typically it means the top 10% are getting 10% to 15% increases while the bottom 10, 25% of the population sees no growth in income, and even negative growth with high inflation and/or high interest rates.

"Unemployment rate": 6%, 5%, etc... just because the unemployment rate is low does not mean, qualitatively, that people are getting good jobs or better jobs than before. For instance, BC's unemployment rate has been dropping steadly but wage rates have remained stagnant. That's because the job growth has been in non-union call centre and retail sector employment. The unemployment rate in Canada could go from 8% to 6% in a single year, and you would say the government was doing a good job. But this statistic does not tell us the quality of the jobs that have been created and lost.

The Liberals were able to wave around GDP growth statistics and unemployment rate statistics to claim that they were doing a good job. However, its far from that simple.

Plus there is the simple matter of the Liberals balancing the budget by shifting the tax burden onto the provinces, which then in turn shifted the tax burden onto municipalities. So we have seen a dramatic increase in property tax rates and a stall in capital spending. So rather than being fiscal genuises, the Liberals merely shifted the tax burden onto lower levels of government and hid tax in the form of excessive EI premiums, while withholding investment in capital infrastructure, which will have negative long term consequences.

Suffice to say, the Liberals did an excellent PR job fooling people into thinking they were sound fiscal managers, but this amounted to nothing but puffery.


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Stockholm
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posted 19 April 2006 10:57 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
If the figure is 14% then the reality is it might be 12% or 16%.

and if the 21% figure from Environics (from a poll of 2000 people compared to SC's puny 1000) then the NDp could be as high as 24% or as low as 18%


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
island empire
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posted 19 April 2006 11:42 PM      Profile for island empire     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
Polling companies do not purposely over- or under-estimate support for anyone. It's in their interest to be as accurate as possible. They don't just make up numbers from thin air.

What SC MIGHT have done was to ask a slew of questions about the Liberal leadership BEFORE asking the vote question, which might skew things towards the Liberals. But I don't know.


they could be doing a lot of other things too. for instance, the sample might not be representative (historically, SC oversamples conservative voters). also, they might weight the sample for party id, to try to compensate for size and moe - this can lead to strange results. also, they could not be randomising - so that the ndp is always named second last, for instance. there could be more questions (before the support question) that concern issues on which the ndp isn't popular (running the economy, for instance). and so forth.

that said, and as much as there were all kinds of things wrong with the strategic council's findings during the election campaign, i wouldn't be surprised if their picture of ndp support was accurate. we've been really out of the news lately.


From: montréal, canada | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
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posted 20 April 2006 01:14 AM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I don't like the NDP's strategy of attacking the contenders in the Liberal leadership race. I want to see the NDP presenting itself as the alternative to the Conservatives (a stance which would truly draw down Liberal support). That being said I assume Jack is playing the soft pedal while he tries to negotiate some side deals in the upcoming budget. After the budget drops I hope the NDP's gloves really come off again & its poll numbers to show some upward movement.

A prediction: the Liberals main complaint will be the "budget does not balance."

A question: when will the opposition days be? rumour has it next week committee assignments will be made.


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V. Jara
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posted 20 April 2006 01:34 AM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
This is the kind of reaction to the Liberal leadership race that I like to see
quote:
Layton also said he isn't attaching much importance to the Liberal leadership race, calling it a "soap opera."


link

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