Conservatives - 39%
NDP - 22%
Liberals - 22%
Greens - 17%

These numbers would indicate the following seat numbers:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Snass Illahie:
Ekos is doing large enough national polls to give decent regional numbers. They released an 842 respondent poll for BC today

Conservatives - 39%
NDP - 22%
Liberals - 22%
Greens - 17%

These numbers would indicate the following seat numbers:

Conservatives 25-28
NDP 6-8
Liberals 2
Greens 0-1

---

quote:

---

Hedy Fry lose her seat due to her senility

---

That is a very hateful remark - you may not like her politics but to suggest that she is suffering from a mental illness and shouldn't be in politics is spiteful and would like to suggest that the moderator or yourself edit that remark out.

The safest Liberal seat is probably Vancouver South - home of Ujjah Dosangh

quote:

---

Originally posted by Politics101:
The safest Liberal seat is probably Vancouver South - home of Ujjah Dosangh

Hedy is in a tough battle for re-election but she has been there before and has prevailed so only time will tell.

---

Agreed on both accounts, which is why Dosangh is the face of the Liberal campaign in BC.

I'd rank the Liberal seats roughly as follows in terms of vulnerability, from safest to least safe:
Vancouver South
Vancouver Centre
Vancouver Quadra
North Vancouver
Vancouver-Kingsway
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
Richmond
Newton-North Delta
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky

As for the NDP seats, here they are from safest to least safe:
Vancouver East
Nanaimo-Cowichan
Victoria
Burnaby-New Westminster
British Columbia Southern Interior
Skeena-Bulkley Valley
Burnaby-Douglas
New Westminster-Coquitlam
Surrey North
Vancouver Island North

I really only see the Tories as potentially vulnerable in three seats: Fleetwood-Port Kells, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission, and Kamloops-Thompson-Highland Valleys. They should hold everything else easily, and will likely make a few gains if these numbers hold up.

[ 18 September 2008: Message edited by: ghoris ]

quote:

---

Originally posted by Stockholm:
I think the Conservatives could also potentially be vulnerable in Saanich-The Islands, but only if the anti-CPC vote coalesces at all behind one candidate.

---

Entirely possible. The Liberals certainly are pinning a lot of hopes on their candidate Briony Penn, who is supposed to have strong green credentials (both small-g and big-G Green, as she's a former Green Party member and apparently still holds a provincial Green membership). Her biography certainly reads like a who's who of the environmental movement, she's endorsed by the Conservation Voters of BC, etc etc. She was nominated quite some time ago if I recall correctly. I guess the Liberals are hoping to scoop the Green vote and some of the NDP vote too.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Snass Illahie:
Ekos is doing large enough national polls to give decent regional numbers. They released an 842 respondent poll for BC today

Conservatives - 39%
NDP - 22%
Liberals - 22%
Greens - 17%

---

Nik Nanos has posted a Regional Breakdown based on he last five days of his tracking poll. The BC figures are:

Conservatives - 40%
Liberals - 33%
NDP - 20%
Greens - 7%

For comparison, the results in 2006 were:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Krago:
Nik Nanos has posted a Regional Breakdown based on he last five days of his tracking poll. The BC figures are:

Conservatives - 40%
Liberals - 33%
NDP - 20%
Greens - 7%

---

I also find it hard to take a poll seriously that is suggesting the Liberals are ahead of the NDP in BC

As to Penn in Saanich - Gulf Islands, she will suceed in ensuring the NDP does not have chance to win. This riding has never really come close to being in danger of being lost to the NDP. Only once did a non right winger break 34%, that being Lynn Hunter in 1988.

Vancouver South could be in play for the NDP if Bev Meslo was not the candidate. That is not the place to run a hard core left winger even if the MP is a one time marxist.

Vancouver Centre, as much as I dislike Hedy Fry, is their safest seat. If the NDP can get to the mid 20s or higher and the Liberals go below 20%, they lose this seat as well.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Snass Illahie:
...Blair Wilson is not out as a possible Green MP in West Van etc... That is one of the stronger Green voting ridings in the country to start with.

---

Stronger for Greens? 2006 results for WVSCStSC:
Lib 23,867 (37.5%)
Con 22,891 (36.0%)
NDP 12,766 (20.1%)
Grn 3,966 (6.2%)
M-L 145 (0.2)

IVR How reliable?

fivethrirtyeight.com has ranked the US pollsters, the ones using IVR do well, not the ranking of Rasmussen this list

Robbins is whole different planet, one can not begin to discuss the planet he is from.

Ekos is producing more and deeper data than anyone else in this election.

IVR works and is as accurate as traditional methods.

I am going to look much seriously at a larger poll than a smaller one. I am going to take regional break outs more seriously that have decent numbers.

As to the Strategic Counsel numbers for the Battleground ridings. I take it with a grain of salt and use it as an adjunct to the other data.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Politics101:

That is a very hateful remark - you may not like her politics but to suggest that she is suffering from a mental illness and shouldn't be in politics is spiteful and would like to suggest that the moderator or yourself edit that remark out.

---

I'll say it differently then.

She should lose because she is a bigot and a liar.

She repeatedly took a real and serious issue (racism) and used it as a club to attack random communities in rural British Columbia (or, more properly, non-Vancouver British Columbia) with fabricated accusations about "crosses burning . . . as we speak." It one case, this vile fabrication was aimed at a community that had just been recognized for its initiatives to improve relations between racial and ethnic groups.

If there were such a thing as a Liberal with integrity, this odious bigot would have been disciplined the first time she uttered this lie, and would have been expelled from the Liberal caucus and the Liberal Party when she repeated this filth.

http://www.usdoj.gov/usao/eousa/foia_reading_room/usam/title8/cvr00147.htm

The mistake that Hedy made was the result of being told by an aide about a cross burning incident in Prince George which she assume was Prince George, BC and not Prince George county in the US.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Robo:

Stronger for Greens? 2006 results for WVSCStSC:
Lib 23,867 (37.5%)
Con 22,891 (36.0%)
NDP 12,766 (20.1%)
Grn 3,966 (6.2%)
M-L 145 (0.2)

The Green result in WVSCStSC was closer to the Marxist-Leninist's result than to the 3rd-place New Democrat!

---

Exactly!

Pollsters can easily manipulate polling results, and do.

Why is it that Harris/Decima always show higher polling results for the Liberals?

All they have to do is poll in areas where they know the Liberal vote is stronger. It's quite simple really.

We quite possibly could end up with a massive Conservative majority at this point, as the Liberals trail the Conservatives by 9% according to Nanos, as well as getting wiped out in Quebec, according to Leger Marketing, and unfortunately for the Liberals

I find it hilarious that the Liberals in their desperation think that Rae is going to be their salvation, whereas the only thing that happens when Rae opens his mouth, is that the Liberal support begins to plummet, even more than it already has.

[ 18 September 2008: Message edited by: NorthReport ]

quote:

---

Originally posted by Politics101:
The mistake that Hedy made was the result of being told by an aide about a cross burning incident in Prince George which she assume was Prince George, BC and not Prince George county in the US.

---

Without question, and without wasting time reading your supposed source link, I can say this is the most preposterous rationalization of Fry's outburst that I have ever heard. And I would point out that this is the first time any one has dreamed up this particular dodge, which is at least as fantastic as the silly bugger remark it attempts to explain away.

You're right about one thing. Fry has been elected five times. And five times it will be. She is going to lose this time. If she weren't, Byers and Maynecourt would not have entered the race. She is likely going to place third, and the contest is between Maynecourt and Byers, with either outcome possible at this point. Of all the Liberals in B.C., even across the country, none lost more traction when the Liberals went from government to opposition as Fry did. Because in reality there never was any Hedy Fry vote, only the Vancouver Centre Liberal vote, which has now self-liquidated because the Liberals lost the aphrodisiac aroma of power.

quote:

---

He's moved over to Lorne Maynecourt's camp, and that's been reported in today's West Ender. Don't say you weren't warned.

---

Was that the same article that had Jim Deva of Little Sisters whole heartedly endorsing Hedy over Lorne in regards to the Gay vote and who Lorne accused of being an NDP'er and perhaps that is why Lorne has his campaign headquarters in the middle of the Entertainment district in the old Kripps Pharmacy building which is now painted in Cons blue - well at least if has brighten up that corner.

As I am now working for Elections Canada in the riding I won't be dropping into any of the candidates offices or volunteering my services.

quote:

---

And I would point out that this is the first time any one has dreamed up this particular dodge, which is at least as fantastic as the silly bugger remark it attempts to explain away.

---

Don't know where you have been all these years but what I reported is nothing new and has been commented on just about every time Hedy's critics continue to bring this subject up.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Unnecessary MountainBoy:The Kamloops riding, formerly held by the retiring Betty Hinton, will not go to the conservatives--I suspect no-one wanted to run, so Hinton had to appoint someone to be a candidate- so it will be taken by either the Libs or NDP. Probably the NDP, if the Green Party isn't too much of a spoiler.

---

The GP has absolutely no profile, nor traction here and will not factor into it at all.

It will be a race between Crawford and Summerfeld. Summerfeld has a very high profile in areas outside of Kamloops, as he has been a long time defense lawyer in all the outlaying communities, and rural people see him as the person who will help, and has helped, them.

It will be up to Crawford to clearly spell out how he can help them, to blunt Summerfeld's actions of over 20 years of defense lawyering.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Politics101:
As for Ujjah - oh it was wrong for him to switch to the Federal Liberals from the Provincial NDP BUT it is Okay for Tom Muclair to go from a provincial Liberal minister in Quebec to a federal NDP member.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Politics101:

Don't know where you have been all these years but what I reported is nothing new and has been commented on just about every time Hedy's critics continue to bring this subject up.

---

Oh pl-fucking-ease!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedy_Fry

quote:

---

Fry ignited a political backlash when, on March 21, 2001, in reply to a question in the House of Commons, she claimed that crosses were being burned on lawns in Prince George, British Columbia "as we speak". No evidence of this had ever been given and, when asked to justify her claim, she stated that the mayor of Prince George had informed her of this. When asked, the mayor denied having said such a thing. It was later suggested Fry had confused Prince George with Merritt, British Columbia, where a Ku Klux Klan grand wizard was arrested following reported racist activity. [1]. Fry was dropped from Cabinet when it was shuffled in 2002.

---

http://www.cbc.ca/national/rex/rex20010327.html

quote:

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I don't know what atlas the Department of Multiculturalism makes available to its Minister, but British Columbia is not Alabama. And I don't know what calendar they use but it's not the 50's or the 60's. If it were the 50's and if it were Alabama, then maybe her comment would have some force. But even Scully and moody Mulder would have some trouble with the next bit. Ms. Fry went on to say that this wasn't just her talking, shades of Rahim Jaffer, she had a letter from the mayor of Prince George testifying to the cross burnings on the lawns of Selma, I mean Prince George.

Now this is pretty specific stuff. Kosovo, Northern Ireland, Prince George, crosses burning on the lawns, a letter from the mayor, as I speak, now, an arranged question. The mayor says he doesn't know what she was talking about. No one in Prince George has seen a cross burning, either as Hedy Fry was speaking or for that matter at any other time. The Minister amended her "as I am speaking" to "recently", later in the same day. And the next day she came forward with a terse, tight-lipped statement of regret for her mistake about the specific hate activity in Prince George, leaving open the possibility that other unspecific hate activities, perhaps off lawn, were flourishing.

---

http://www.jameslunneymp.ca/news_detail.php?recordID=67

quote:

---

In Question Period yesterday, Hedy Fry said: “We only have to look around the world today at Kosovo, at Macedonia, at Northern Ireland to know that people are still discriminated against in the world because of their race, their religion and their culture We do not have to go too far. We can just go to British Columbia where crosses are being burned on lawns as we speak.” (Hansard, Mar 21)

· After Canadian Alliance MP Dick Harris objected to the remarks in a Point of Order, Ms. Fry refused to retract her remarks. She said: “In British Columbia there have been incidents of hate crime, including cross burnings. I know this because I was contacted immediately that these incidents occurred by the mayor of Prince George….The community was duly concerned and duly appalled at the incident. (Hansard Mar 21)

· In a scrum yesterday, the following exchange took place :

UNIDENTIFIED MAN: “Were they burning crosses like Ku Klux Klan?”

HEDY FRY: “Yes.”

UNIDENTIFIED MAN: “Whose lawns?”

HEDY FRY: “I don’t know whose lawns exactly, but they were being burned on lawns of people who were visible minorities in that area.” (CBC’s The National)

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Politics101:
Don't know where you have been all these years but what I reported is nothing new and has been commented on just about every time Hedy's critics continue to bring this subject up.

---

Rubbish. This is some invention on your part, or on the part of one of Hedy's remaining supporters. I have heard how her "operation" worked. It was heavily supported by Fed Govt patronage while the Liberals were in power. Without that, just a regular backbencher's allowances to play with, Hedy is a fish out of water like all Liberals. Hard to breathe that way.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Politics101:
As for Ujjah - oh it was wrong for him to switch to the Federal Liberals from the Provincial NDP BUT it is Okay for Tom Muclair to go from a provincial Liberal minister in Quebec to a federal NDP member.

---

You have a point there, but obviously Muclair was not attracted to the Federal NDP because it was the federal party in power at the time.

quote:

---

Originally posted by HeywoodFloyd:
Oh pl-fucking-ease!

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Politics101:
Perhaps you would like to read this article - it will shed a lot of light on your continued misinformation on this matter.

http://www.usdoj.gov/usao/eousa/foia_reading_room/usam/title8/cvr00147.htm

---

Being a woman of colour does not magically insulate one from being a bigot.

bigot: noun. A person who is intolerant of others, particularly those who are different from themselves.

Hedy is bigotted against those who live outside major conurbations. Like much of the quasi-half-assed Liberal pretendy left, Headless Hedy writes off anyone outside her Vancouver-Toronto-Montreal axis as a mouthbreathing, rednecked and racist Philistine.

That is why she lied.

That is why she never felt any need to retract her lie.

After all, if iot were an honest mistake, she could easily have said "I made a mistake."

Instead, this arrogant bigot repeated her lie on at least two other occasions.

About a different BC community on every occasion.

Your link is nothing but another desperate apologia for a lying bigot.

In other words, a post that could have been posted by just about any Liberal.

[ 19 September 2008: Message edited by: Malcolm French, APR ]

us Reid; Greens set to win numerous seats in BC

[ 20 September 2008: Message edited by: Panama Jack ]

Decima:

CPC - 35%
NDP - 27%
Libs - 19%
Greens - 18%

Angus Reid:

CPC - 38%
NDP - 29%
Libs - 18%
Greens - 14%

These numbers point to the NDP and Tories not budging much against each other, but each grabbing about half of the current Liberal seats. The NDP would probably gain Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Vancouver Kingsway and Vancouver Centre and the Tories would probably gain West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast, North Vancouver and Richmond. Newton-North Delta could go either CPC or NDP and the Tories could even pick up Quadra.

quote:

---

These numbers point to the NDP and Tories not budging much against each other, but each grabbing about half of the current Liberal seats. The NDP would probably gain Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Vancouver Kingsway and Vancouver Centre and the Tories would probably gain West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast, North Vancouver and Richmond. Newton-North Delta could go either CPC or NDP and the Tories could even pick up Quadra.

Dosanjh could easily end up being the only Liberal west of Regina.

---

I agree with those predictions in general if those numbers hold on election night- the NDP's net seat gain will depend if they can hold off the CPC in Vancouver Island North and Surrey North, and whether the NDP can beat the Tories in Pitt Meadows-Mission or Kamloops.

quote:

---

I think the Conservatives could also potentially be vulnerable in Saanich-The Islands, but only if the anti-CPC vote coalesces at all behind one candidate.

---

A few observers think Saanich-Gulf Islands is vulnerable, but I've never seen the logic there. Lunn has held that seat through the darkest Stockwell Days, the massive Liberal sweeps in 1993 and 2000, the 2004 "stop Harper" hysteria...why would he lose it now when Harper and his party are flying high?

The demos in this riding favour Conservatives more each year, all the wealthy retirees from Alberta moving to Sidney and to some extent the Gulf Islands are solid Tory voting blocks. The same thing happens in Nanaimo-Alberni as well, which is why that traditional NDP riding is a Tory lock in 2006, 2008 and beyond.

The vote-split among the left helps Lunn, but the main point here is that this riding will NEVER go Liberal in the foreseeable future. Vancouver Island is generally allergic to the federal Grits, and it was David Anderson and Keith Martin's inexplicable personal popularity that kept Victoria and Esquimalt-JDF Liberal for the past few elections. Denise Savoie won Victoria in 2006 after Anderson left, and either the Tories or NDP will win Esquimalt after Martin retires or is defeated.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Stockholm:

Dosanjh could easily end up being the only Liberal west of Regina.

---

quote:

---

And Goodale could end up being the only other Liberal west of Toronto.

---

That could very well happen, although I suspect the Liberals will elect at least one MP in Manitoba (likely Anita Neville in Winnipeg South Centre).

Edited to add: whoops - Stockholm beat me to it!

It seems like we're reverting back to the voting patterns of the late 1970s/early 1980s, where the Liberals were bvirtually shut out of Western Canada. In three elections from 1979 to 1984, the Liberals managed to win a grand total of four ridings in Western Canada: Winnipeg-Fort Garry, St. Boniface, Vancouver Centre, and Vancouver Quadra. None of the modern-day equivalents of these seats is looking like a slam-dunk this time either. Vancouver South (Dosanjh) and Wascana (Goodale) look like the only sure bets at the moment.

[ 20 September 2008: Message edited by: ghoris ]

Churchill is extremely likely to go NDP this without Bev Desjarlais running as an independent and with Dion's poor leadership.

[ 20 September 2008: Message edited by: Lord Palmerston ]

quote:

---

A few observers think Saanich-Gulf Islands is vulnerable, but I've never seen the logic there. Lunn has held that seat through the darkest Stockwell Days, the massive Liberal sweeps in 1993 and 2000, the 2004 "stop Harper" hysteria...why would he lose it now when Harper and his party are flying high?

The demos in this riding favour Conservatives more each year, all the wealthy retirees from Alberta moving to Sidney and to some extent the Gulf Islands are solid Tory voting blocks. The same thing happens in Nanaimo-Alberni as well, which is why that traditional NDP riding is a Tory lock in 2006, 2008 and beyond.

The vote-split among the left helps Lunn, but the main point here is that this riding will NEVER go Liberal in the foreseeable future. Vancouver Island is generally allergic to the federal Grits, and it was David Anderson and Keith Martin's inexplicable personal popularity that kept Victoria and Esquimalt-JDF Liberal for the past few elections. Denise Savoie won Victoria in 2006 after Anderson left, and either the Tories or NDP will win Esquimalt after Martin retires or is defeated.

In other words, the only way to beat the Cons in Saanich-Gulf Islands is with a stellar NDP candidate who can draw Lib and Green votes. If Penn had run for the NDP, she might have a hope to upset Lunn, but as a Lib, there is simply no way it can be done. Unfortunately, the NDP candidate in that riding is not very strong and Lunn will cruise to an easy win yet again.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Stockholm:
The latest BC numbers from Decima and Angus Reid don't look so bad (unless you are a Liberal:

Decima:

CPC - 35%
NDP - 27%
Libs - 19%
Greens - 18%

Angus Reid:

CPC - 38%
NDP - 29%
Libs - 18%
Greens - 14%

...

Dosanjh could easily end up being the only Liberal west of Regina.

---

Numbers like these would tend to represent a return to the 1980s configuration in BC, with the NDP and the Tories being the major competitors, and a small Liberal fringe capable only of electing John Turner in Vancouver Quadra. But there is no John Turner this time, and whatever they may think, neither Hedy Fry or Ujjal Dosanjh fills that role.

Yeah, he's got the face and the name recognition and so on, but all he's going to do, I think, is remind people of how fast he jumped ship off the NDP to the federal Liberals as soon as he saw how far the NDP ship had sunk back in 2001."

I don't think that Ujjal waited until the end of the 2001 campaign to "jump ship." I'm fairly sure his ass was out the door long before then in someways. The damage he done in the 2001 campaign, still reverberates around the provincial NDP. And he was always a strong Herb Dhaliwal guy, even as an NDP'er. Politics in some communities makes for some interesting watching and scenarios. Things are never what they seem to be there, thats for sure.

Well the Libs are great judges of character thats for sure. After all wasn't their poster child in the 2006 election David Emerson? In all reality, whats killed the Libs or sorry, what's led to the slow painful bleeding of the Libs in Canada was done at their own hand, by bringing in campaign finance reform.

The conservatives one upped it by outright banning union and corporate donations to federal political parties. Both the neo Cons and the NDP have strong grassroot support, while the Libs constantly had the hand out to the major corps and mongo donors. I think that the campaign finance reform move by the Liberals was a good move for the country as a whole, but a bad move strategically long term for them. Its why Campbell provincially is extremely reluctant to follow through with the same idea.

quote:

---

Originally posted by keglerdave:
I don't think that Ujjal waited until the end of the 2001 campaign to "jump ship." I'm fairly sure his ass was out the door long before then in someways. The damage he done in the 2001 campaign, still reverberates around the provincial NDP. And he was always a strong Herb Dhaliwal guy, even as an NDP'er. Politics in some communities makes for some interesting watching and scenarios. Things are never what they seem to be there, thats for sure.

---

You're right about Ujjal Dosanjh. He was holding talks with the Liberals as early as 1996, and by the time he won the BC NDP leadership the Federal Liberals would already have had a bulging, inducement-riddled recruitment file on him.

quote:

---

Originally posted by North Shore:
Living in the riding, I'm convinced that Lunn is vulnerable. Every election, the combined Lib/NDP/Green vote is larger than the Con share, so it's not an overwhelmingly Conservative riding - just FPTP makes it that way..
Trubble is, who to vote for? Mr. West of the NDP doesn't live in the riding to the best of my knowledge,

---

Well, let's put your mind at rest on a few things here;

quote:

---

Julian West was born in England on January 7th, 1964, and moved with his family to British Columbia, Canada in 1968...He currently resides in Saanich.

West was associated with the left-wing progressive element of the Green Party. He left the Green Party of British Columbia after Stuart Parker was ousted as its leader in March, 2000, and left the Green Party of Canada in 2003, citing differences with its new leader Jim Harris.

West has been one of the most prominent advocates for proportional representation in Canada. He has served on the board of directors of Fair Vote Canada continuously since it was founded in 2000, and has held similar positions in British Columbia organizations including Fair Voting B.C..

In September 2004, West was one of nine British Columbians chosen to address the Citizens' Assembly on Electoral Reform in plenary session. He spoke in favour of the selection of BC-STV as a new voting system for the province. West later campaigned in favour of BC-STV in the 2005 referendum.

---

So, I guess that takes care of some "trubbling" aspects that you noted of how PR is needed, as he is the man to go to in BC on that issue, and of that false concept that he does not live in Saanich.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Lord Palmerston:
Couldn't Winnipeg South Center go Tory if they come up the middle with Liberal votes bleeding both ways? I believe most of Winnipeg's Jewish community is there and if there's any truth to the claim that there's a swing toward the Tories because of Harper's Israel stance it could also have an impact.

---

quote:

---

So, I guess that takes care of some "trubbling" aspects that you noted of how PR is needed, as he is the man to go to in BC on that issue, and of that false concept that he does not live in Saanich.

---

I was wondering about how a mathematics instructor at Malaspina College in Nanaimo, ended up living in SGI..in any case, it's a moot point due to today's developments (resignation.)

Conservative . . . . . 39
New Democrat . . . . . 30
Green Party . . . . . 18
Liberal . . . . . . . 11