N.Beltov

It is all part of the criminal investigation of the assassination, looking at the evidence will give an indication whom was behind the attack. How the assassination happen is just as important as who made the device.

Does anyone know Bhutto’s religious background? This may be a factor?

What is so disheartening is she frequently rallied in speeches against politicians who plundered the nations money ..... and then went right out and did the same thing herself. Bizarre.

There is a regional angle, however: Bhutto was from the Sindh and was not the first public figure from that province of Pakistan to be murdered in the Punjab.

Edit::

It is interesting that a previous poster mentioned that the endorsement of America is pretty much a kiss of death. More over, the claims of her ineffectual nature are only now pouring into the Western media - although they've long been spoken of in Pakistan. Her lackadaisical stance on terrorism and extremism is one of the more peculiar facets of her time in office - under her Pakistan recognized Talibani government in Afghanistan. There were realistic political needs in doing so, mind you. The Taliban, for what it is worth, did bring some semblance of stability to Afghanistan. Also, it was mentioned by Beltov that she is from Sindh province. This broke a good deal of historical precedent in Pakistani politics given that it is historically a government dominated by Punjab, with Pashtun support. Recognizing the Taliban government could drum up some of their often mercurial support for her leadership in a government that was, as noted by some observers, the first truly nationally supported Pakistani government (by this I mean that she was one of the few politicians that had a broad base of support across the ethnic jig-saw puzzle that is Pakistan).

Al-Qaeda's apparently massive operation shows a growing deal of sophistication in their jihadist wing in Pakistan - which is quite worrying given the very nature of that nation's power. Mind you, it has taught the West that mismanagement of such an ill-conceived and changing conflict as the War on Terror can imbue one's enemies with a nearly unlimited and terrifying level of morale, experience, and legitimacy.

[ 28 December 2007: Message edited by: Papal Bull ]

Musharaf wanted Bhutto at arms length- or even to try to put her on a leash- but he's clearly worse off with her dead.

quote:

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Pakistan policy in disarray

U.S. had counted on Bhutto to be a key ally in helping dealing with the nation's myriad challenges.

By Paul Richter
Los Angeles Times Staff Writer

December 28, 2007

WASHINGTON -- For months, the Bush administration's hopes for stability in Pakistan rested on the rising influence of Benazir Bhutto. Her death Thursday shattered those hopes and threatened to paralyze U.S. priorities there: fighting terrorism, ensuring the safety of the country's nuclear weapons and preventing regional chaos.

The administration had a huge stake in the pro-Western former prime minister. U.S. officials were banking that Bhutto's party would win enough seats in upcoming elections to become an effective force in the government again. In Pakistan, her death leaves the party in disarray, and the elections in doubt. For the White House, it leaves a void that will take time and work to fill.

The assassination dealt a blow to an even closer U.S. ally, President Pervez Musharraf, who now may lose the electoral blessing he needs to restore his sagging credibility and legitimacy. Worse, many Pakistanis hold the president and those around him responsible for the assassination, if only because they failed to prevent it.

The setback comes at an especially bad time for the United States, with Islamic militants resurgent in neighboring Afghanistan and focusing more intently on attacking Pakistan. The United States has been spending about $1 billion a year in Pakistan.

"A bad day for Pakistan, a bad day for the United States," said Daniel Markey of the Council on Foreign Relations, who was a senior State Department official until earlier this year. "We're going to be paying a price for it for a while."

U.S. officials said their foremost concern was the possibility of civil upheaval....

Link to article

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quote:

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Having maintained that she (Bhutto) was wrong on several counts, I feel that politics requires different voices and it might have been an interesting fight to see where Pakistan would go from here.

This is not to be, with one important player gone. It is unfortunate what this country is going through, and I am sorry but I do blame the United States of America for using it for its proxy wars and its leaders as convenient puppets to send messages to other nations.

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http://farzana-versey.blogspot.com/2007/12/benazir-bhutto-final-exile.html

Faezana Versey also writes for counterpunch.

[ 28 December 2007: Message edited by: mary123 ]

quote:

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India calls Bhutto's assassination an 'abominable act'

by Pratap ChakravartyThu Dec 27, 2:43 PM ET

India on Thursday called the assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto an "abominable act" and sounded a security alert along its borders with the nuclear-armed rival nation.

"We express our shock and horror at her death," Foreign Minister Pranab Mukehrjee told reporters while junior foreign minister Anand Sharma said at a separate news conference "no words are enough to condemn this abominable act."

Sharma said the killing dealt a blow to the democratic process in Pakistan with which India has fought three wars, two over the disputed Himalayan territory of Kashmir.

"It is a terrible blow to the democratic process in Pakistan," Sharma said.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who was on a visit to the tourist resort state of Goa, said Bhutto's killing was a reminder of the "common dangers" faced by both India and Pakistan.

"The manner of her going is a reminder of the common dangers that our region faces from cowardly acts of terrorism and of the need to eradicate this dangerous threat," he said in a statement issued in Goa.

"The people of Pakistan have suffered a grievous blow," Singh said and added he was "deeply shocked and horrified to hear of the heinous assassination of Benazir Bhutto."

Singh praised Bhutto's efforts when she served earlier as prime minister to forge normal ties between mainly Hindu India and Muslim-majority Pakistan as "exemplary".

"Her contributions to a previous moment of hope in India-Pakistan relations, and her intent to break India-Pakistan relations out of the sterile patterns of the past, were exemplary," he said.

"Mrs Bhutto was no ordinary political leader, but one who left a deep imprint on her time and age," Singh added.

India's Hindu nationalist opposition leader Lal Krishna Advani condemned Bhutto's killing and added it showed Pakistan had come under the influence of "extremist elements" such as Taliban militia forces in neighbouring Afghanistan.

"This is a process of Talibanisation of Pakistan which is not only dangerous for that country but poses a new threat to India as well," the Bharatiya Janta Party leader said.

India sounded a high security alert amid reports of a backlash in Pakistan to Bhutto's killing.

"The paramilitary forces have been put on alert all along the India-Pakistan border following the assassination," an Indian home ministry spokesman said.

Bhutto, a two-time former premier, had just addressed a campaign rally for next month's parliamentary polls when she was shot in the neck by a man who then blew himself up in a suicide attack, killing at least 20 and wounding 56 others.

Analysts such as G. Parthasarathy, a former Indian ambassador to Islamabad, said Bhutto's death could derail the tottering peace talks started by the two rivals in 2002.

"The democracy process having being derailed in that country, the power will once again return into the hands of the Pakistani military which does not want peace with India," he said.

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Lawyers hold govt responsible for Benazir Bhutto’s killing

LAHORE: Lawyers have denounced the killing of PPP chairperson Benazir Bhutto and have called her death a national tragedy. They have held the government responsible for the incident and have demanded that President Pervez Musharraf should step down, as he is a ‘security risk’ for Pakistan. Daily Times spoke to several prominent lawyers after Ms Bhutto’s death. Most of them said that if the government was not directly involved in her killing, it was definitely negligent in providing her security. They said....

Daily Times

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quote:

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U.S. Troops to Head to Pakistan

Beginning early next year, U.S. Special Forces are expected to vastly expand their presence in Pakistan, as part of an effort to train and support indigenous counter-insurgency forces and clandestine counterterrorism units, according to defense officials involved with the planning.

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The Americans are coming! The Americans are coming!

The report came out December 26, 2007 one day before the assasination.

[ 28 December 2007: Message edited by: mary123 ]

quote:

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CNN-IBN SPECIAL
Benazir's husband rejects govt's 'explosive' claimsVideo

CNN-IBN

How did Benazir Bhutto die? Twenty-four hours after the world was shocked by her assassination, Pakistan government claims the PPP leader suffered no bullet wounds but succumbed to a head injury, seemingly debunking the theory of suicide bombers. However, the slain leader's husband, Asif Ali Zardari, rubbishes all claims, says Pakistan government just did not want to save Benazir. [0327 hrs IST]

* Benazir's Death: The Big Questions
* Pak govt reveals how Benazir was killed

Link to a number of articles

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quote:

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(CNN) -- Conflicting reports about what caused the death of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto are fueling questions about the circumstances of her assassination....

CNN article

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What I previously wrote about i.e.
-the niece Fatima Bhutto and her allegations against her aunt
-the massive corruption and how it played a part in the eventual powersharing with general Mushariff
-Benazir courting the American press and media etc
all comes together quite nicely in his brilliant
piece.

Tariq Ali is a British-Pakistani historian, novelist, filmmaker, political campaigner, and commentator. He is a member of the editorial committee of the New Left Review, and regularly contributes to The Guardian, Counterpunch, and the London Review of Books.

How Washington brokered an arranged marriage between Benazir Bhutto and Pervez Musharraf. The bride was in a hurry, the groom less so.

[ 28 December 2007: Message edited by: mary123 ]

In contradistinction to the Pentagon's eternal reply to, what LBJ onced complained of, was for every foreign policy conundrum, specifically "Bomb! Bomb! Bomb!", and its blind faith in Musharaff and the Pakistan military to keep things in order, Rice's State Department appeared to be the only entity on the face of the planet to take seriously the Bush alibi and mantra of "Freedom and Democracy". And no where was America's insistence that all of the blood spilt and money spent was done for "Freedom and Democracy" more utterly exposed for the ugly truth of its detestable hypocrisy than in Pakistan. In cruel contrast to all of the sanctimonious talk of reversing America's traditional support of the most vicious of tinpot dictators and their tyrannical regimes with Bush's Born Again inspiration for freedom-lovin' people all around the world, oft-quoted to justify our recent relish for criminality, there stood the spectre of our active support for General Pervez Musharaff, our "most important ally in America's War on Terror", with his guns and ammo, tanks and torturers, who toppled a civillian government legally elected in a peaceful and ordered way by a nation of 170,000,000 people. Yet, even he was aware of the bad optics of it all. Thus, he claimed, he promised, he decried, he re-promised, he swore, he warned, he guaranteed, he apologized, he excused, and for over 8 years, he sat on top. But at the end of the day, when he had played all of his cards, with an American ace in his back pocket, he was still in danger of being trumped by his enemies, and far worse than any fantastical Taliban or mythical Al-Queda conspiracy, stood his greatest enemy: the people of Pakistan. Thus, he suspended, he declared, he abolished, he imprisoned, and in the end, he assassinated. And with that ace still in his pocket, he continues to sit on top.

Dr. Condoleeza Rice, once a limp academic and present Bush sycophant, after suffering personal ignominy and public ridicule for her strangely dyslexic command of her portfolios, took over the reigns of the State Department. She disappointed no one with a repeat perfomance of utterly ineffectual stewartship, her chief accomplishment being little else but the accumulation of frequent flyer points. And so in watching the time run out in this her last stint in the vainglorious sunshine of power and celebrity, where shopping for shoes or scolding a clerk made her more headlines than her foreign policy, she seized a last chance for redemption and gratitiude from her host ego, George Bush, by thinking up a way to put a smiley face over the glowering scowl of Musharaff, in the vain hope that the hopelessly naive, i.e. the people of Pakistan, would fall in love with its perfect makeup, its perfect hair and its oh so western love for conspicuous consumption. That face was Benazir Bhutto.

Therefore, as only the truly empowered and enrich can do, with nary a care or concern for principles, or victims, Condoleeza Rice began to play house with real people, a Paris Hilton on steroids. In collusion with Negroponte, her chaperon, and Gordon Brown, her footman, the plot was hatched: foist a corrupt and reliable figurehead upon a gullible electorate, get it voted in by hook or crook, ensure it abides by any marching orders emanating from DC, and keep it happy like a Digimon Pet with regular feeding and affection until we can can all flee the jurisdiction this January, 2009 with our amnesties, pardons and most importantly, our contracts intact.

Yet alas, this 54-year-old smiley face came with wrinkles, and to be rude, specifically $1.5 billion-dollar wrinkles, tucked away in various Swiss bank accounts, chiefly embezzled from the horrendously impoverished people of Pakistan. Let no one dare doubt the plaintive professions of love for her people, the regular declamations of the evil of Musharaff, the tireless tirades against the terrorist Taliban, versus the nice Taliban of yesteryear she supported when last in power, all voiced in that perfectly cadenced politician's cant, bred by the best bastions of olde English imperialism: Oxford AND Cambridge. Nothing could keep her back from running to Her People in Their Time of Need. But what money don't buy, she don't need. Hence, the awkward need for an amnesty from a compliant judiciary. For Condy, it would just not do to have Benazhir's trademark glasses and many flounces of fabric flying over who gets the top bunk with an Islamabad hooker in a Pakistani correctional facility ("The people of Pakistan demand I get it!"). Enter Musharaff.

From Vietnam, through Iran to Iraq unto Pakistan: as every deposed US-backed dictator in the history of the post-WW II world would ruefully report, once that proverbial American ace in the back pocket is withdrawn, you may as well pack your bags and start googling all countries with air conditioning and no extradiction treaties. Musharaff knows as well as any corporate shyster how to do "the Google", but he would much rather stay at home than absquatulate to a foreign jurisdiction. Hence, "one amnesty coming right up, Ms. Rice." Presto, the National Reconciliation Ordinance, shoved through an obeisant legislature and soon to be ratified by a "new and improved" Pakistani Supreme Court. And in keeping with the spirit of the matter, Musharaff expanded the amnesty to cover not just the "innocent" Bhutto, but heavens to betsy, everyone everywhere who at anytime embezzled funds from the people of Pakistan, the vast majority being former members of his military. For some, can a silver lining have a silver lining?

Yet in spite of all of these machinations, truth has a terrible way of interfering with the plans of mice and men, ...and women. The woman Rice lured to return to Pakistan to save the day for George Bush and his idea of Freedom'n'Democracy is now dead, possibly murdered with the silent instigation of Rice's rivals in the Defence Department, and by the Pentagon's undoubted Man of the Moment, Musharaff. She is now far more useful to everyone in death than ever in life.

Bhutto was never as popular as her own press releases alleged. Indeed, local polling put her rival, Nazwar Sharif, ahead. Revelations concerning the much vilified amnesty, which legalised grand larceny upon some of the poorest people in the world, knocked down her numbers, and fatally destroyed any legitimacy she might have otherwise held. Furthermore, suspicions concerning both her collusion in an American-brokered deal with Mushraraff, and her ultimate loyalty in Bush's silly "War on Terror", alienated much of her base. She would have lost the election, if and when it would ever had been held.

quote:

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Originally posted by Neocynic:
Bhutto had no business being in Pakistan but for Rice.

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Wasn't Benazir Bhutto a citizen of Pakistan? Where else should she have been?

[ 28 December 2007: Message edited by: Stephen Gordon ]

quote:

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Originally posted by Stephen Gordon:

Wasn't Benazir Bhutto a citizen of Pakistan? Where else should she have been?

[ 28 December 2007: Message edited by: Stephen Gordon ]

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Why look for an answer from an obvious copy/paste, even though the quotes' source wasn't acknowledged.

quote:

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Another Death in Rawalpindi

by Aziz Huq

TheNation.com

It goes without saying that the killing of any human
being is a tragedy. But the assassination of former
Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in Liaqut Bagh
in Rawalpindi, along with more than a dozen others,
echoes back into Pakistan's troubled history, portends
more violence and flags a proud country's fall further
into chaos. It also signals the manifest bankruptcy of
the Bush Administration's anti-terrorism policy in the
region....

Link to article in the Nation

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quote:

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Does anyone know Bhutto’s religious background? This may be a factor?

Another question no one has asked is “how are relations with India been lately?” and “how did Mrs. Bhutto see India/Pakistan relations?”

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Good questions. Some have dismissed this as not being in the government's best interests, though I would argue that it could still be in their (ie: rogue elements not loyal/controlled to/by Musharaff) interests should they gain control of the situation. And even if Musharaff is dismissed, that doesn't mean that another military leader, or compliant civilian couldn't take his place. Frankly at this point he seems pretty expendable to just about everyone.

Jerry pointed out India's response, but one should also remember that it isn't necessarily in the Military leaderships best interests for India-Pakistan relations to be cordial and stable. If we can take the Indian statements regarding her death as serious, we can conclude that the Military, and the ISI, could still be suspects because of her work in creating a stable relationship between the two powers being yet another example of her policy thrust going against their interests.

Another major suspect is of course Al-Qaeda, which the Pakistani government has blamed. Though again, elements of the ISI and military could've still played a role according to some conspiracy theories that many ordinary Pakistanis hold. This is important, because as we know Bhutto was a Shiite, whereas Al-Qaeda, and much of the ISI/military elements that are compromised by religious extremists are Sunni. I can't remember what link I read this at, but I remember it being stated that she downplayed her Shia background to appeal to a wider swath of voters, because much of the opposition to her played that up, since Shia's only make up 20% of the population. Obviously her staunchly secular positions didn't help.

The problem of course is that all of this is just idle speculation. It's really interesting and compelling, but there's no way to prove anything and it's unlikely that it will ever be proven.

Here's an interesting article related to FP recriminations for the Bush Administration. Of course since they yell TERRORIST at anyone that isn't "with them", and they support anyone who who is "with them", it's unlikely they'll be able to come to a reasonable course of action and not completely bungle this situation. I suppose the best we can hope for with that team, is for them to only continue to make it worse slowly, so that maybe someone else (hopefully) will be able to clean up the damage. Edited for clarity.

[ 28 December 2007: Message edited by: Vansterdam Kid ]

quote:

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Earlier that month, two militant warlords based in Pakistan's lawless northwestern areas, near the border with Afghanistan, had threatened to kill her on her return.

One was Baitullah Mehsud, a top commander fighting the Pakistani army in the tribal region of South Waziristan. He has close ties to al Qaeda and the Afghan Taleban.

The other was Haji Omar, the “amir” or leader of the Pakistani Taleban, who is also from South Waziristan and fought against the Soviets with the Mujahideen in Afghanistan.

After that attack Ms Bhutto revealed that she had received a letter signed by a person who claimed to be a friend of al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden threatening to slaughter her like a goat.

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Will the formerly pro-Taliban dictator of Pakistan rig another election in his favour? Or is it already rigged now that his main political opposition has been "removed" from the political landscape? Or will it be eight more years for the self appointed pro-USA president of Pakistan? And where's OBL, that six foot five inch tall Arab with a wonky kidney whom thousands of CIA agents around the world still can't locate nowadays? "Extreme ways are back again" - Moby

[ 29 December 2007: Message edited by: Fidel ]

quote:

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But a spokesman for Mehsud, Maulana Mohammed Umer, denied the militant was involved in the attack and dismissed the allegations as ''government propaganda.''

''We strongly deny it. Baitullah Mehsud is not involved in the killing of Benazir Bhutto,'' he said in a telephone call he made to The Associated Press from the tribal region of South Waziristan.

''The fact is that we are only against America, and we don't consider political leaders of Pakistan our enemy,'' he said, adding that he was speaking on instructions from Mehsud.

. . . .

Bhutto's Pakistan Peoples Party accused the government of trying to frame Mehsud, saying the militant -- through emissaries -- had previously told Bhutto he was not involved in the Karachi bombing.

''The story that al-Qaida or Baitullah Mehsud did it appears to us to be a planted story, an incorrect story, because they want to divert the attention,'' said Farhatullah Babar, a spokesman for Bhutto's party.

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After the Oct. 18 Karachi bombing that killed 139 people she wrote a message to be opened and read in case of her death.

quote:

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Bhutto's husband Asif Zardari told British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) radio in an interview that the letter or "will" to be read out by Bilawal contained specific instructions on the PPP's future programme.

When asked if Bhutto had named a successor to take on the mantle of PPP leader, Zardari said the instructions would clear up all issues, including that of succession.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Stephen Gordon:

Wasn't Benazir Bhutto a citizen of Pakistan? Where else should she have been?

[ 28 December 2007: Message edited by: Stephen Gordon ]

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quote:

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Originally posted by Stephen Gordon:

Wasn't Benazir Bhutto a citizen of Pakistan? Where else should she have been?

[ 28 December 2007: Message edited by: Stephen Gordon ]

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Before the Amnesty, absolving her of stealing some $1 billion from the state, she was subject to arrest to answer for the well-founded corruption charges. She was self-exiled in Saudi Arabia, and unless she was prepared to asnwer to the people of Pakistan for her grand larceny in a fair and open trial, she had no business being Pakistan.

quote:

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Since the thief is dead, this issue is now moot.

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quote:

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Since the thief is dead, this issue is now moot.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Stockholm:

I'm glad to know that you were dancing a little jig of joy and punching your fist in the air over the news that a woman was murdered in cold blood along with 20 other people.

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quote:

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Originally posted by jrose:

It's hardly moot. Whether you agreed with her politics, or didn't, her death raises many questions, many of which have been addressed in this thread (and the previous one.)

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quote:

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You're being an emotional fool. Only dyslexia would explain your moronic post.

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quote:

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Originally posted by jrose:

That is absolutely not acceptable on this thread, or any others. Consider this a warning from a moderator.

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And yet you still have not done anything about this post from scout to me:

Originally posted by Scout:

quote:

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Originally posted by Neocynic:

Since the thief is dead, this issue is now moot.

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If she'd have stolen a few billion more, she might have been made welcome in the States as it was for the the Marcos', Shah, and few dozen other friendly despots of the recent past.

quote:

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Originally posted by jrose:

That is absolutely not acceptable on this thread, or any others. Consider this a warning from a moderator.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Stockholm:
I'm glad to know that you were dancing a little jig of joy and punching your fist in the air over the news that a woman was murdered in cold blood along with 20 other people.

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I just don't get it.

[ 29 December 2007: Message edited by: M. Spector ]

quote:

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Originally posted by contrarianna:

Presumably, the transgression here is making uncomplimentary personal remarks regarding reading skills.
Personally, I'd rather be called a fool (again)than be FALSELY be accused of rejoicing in someones death.
Could we have a little more even handedness here?

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quote:

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Originally posted by RosaL:

I suspect the warning may have had to do with using "disability labels" - one of them an insult in itself - as insults.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Neocynic:
the Amnesty, absolving her of stealing some $1 billion from the state . . . well-founded corruption charges. . . her grand larceny . . . Since the thief is dead, this issue is now moot.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Neocynic:
She was self-exiled in Saudi Arabia.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Wilf Day:

You're confusing her with Nawaz Sharif who was in Saudi Arabia. She was in Dubai. Perhaps you should be more careful of your facts as well as your libels.

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DOh! You are correct regarding exactly where she resided in exile. Nevertheless, as for the raft of criminal proceedings in three different jurisdictions, the presumption of innocence was long, long ago rebutted.

This may be of some help for those imterested in the truth about Bhutto:

Daughter of the West
Tariq Ali

http://www.lrb.co.uk/v29/n24/ali_01_.html

[ 29 December 2007: Message edited by: Neocynic ]

[ 29 December 2007: Message edited by: Neocynic ]

quote:

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Originally posted by contrarianna:

I think that's a stretch.
I do hope it is not verboten to lable someone's post as "idiotic" or "moronic". As for "dyslexic" this was in fact introduced as a mockingly "false excuse" as a possible way out for an otherwise deliberately ugly and malignant slur.
As a dyslexic myself, (a trait shared, to some degree, by up to 20% of the population--and WB Yeats) I would be in fact be happy to ascribe a posting of such a vile remark to an involuntary misreading.

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quote:

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Amin Fahim
Asif Zardari
Aitzaz Ahsan
Bilawal Bhutto Zardari
Farhatullah Babar
Shah Mehmood Qureshi
Sherry Rehman
Fatima Bhutto???

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Of those listed, Amin Fahim, Aitzaz Ahsan and Sherry Rehman have actually been National Assembly members for the last five years. Apparently not a prerequisite, though.

[ 29 December 2007: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]

quote:

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Over all this, however, looms the shocking power of Pakistan's ISI, the Inter Services Intelligence.

This vast institution – corrupt, venal and brutal – works for Musharraf.

But it also worked – and still works – for the Taliban. It also works for the Americans. In fact, it works for everybody. But it is the key which Musharraf can use to open talks with America's enemies when he feels threatened or wants to put pressure on Afghanistan or wants to appease the
"extremists" and "terrorists" who so oppress George Bush. And let us remember, by the way, that Daniel Pearl, the Wall Street Journal reporter beheaded by his Islamist captors in Karachi, actually made his fatal appointment with his future murderers from an ISI commander's office. Ahmed Rashid's book Taliban provides riveting proof of the ISI's web of corruption and violence. Read it, and all of the above makes more sense.

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I was very suspicious at her sudden reappearance on the Pakistan political stage and wondered at the Great Power maneuverings that lay behind it (Ms.Rice take a bow).

Tariq Ali tells us a hilarious story about the ex- getting half of his moustache shaved off by Bhutto's brother in protest of the hubby's grand larceny (for which he paid for with his life):

http://www.lrb.co.uk/latest/

Sheer naked desperation to save "The Deal" prompts this cruel joke. I wonder if the people of Pakistan are laughing.

I'd laugh, but for the bodybags.

[ 30 December 2007: Message edited by: Neocynic ]

quote:

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Behind Pakistan's endless swings between military government and democracy lies a surprising continuity of elitist interests: to some extent, Pakistan's industrial, military and landowning classes are all interrelated and they look after each other. They do not, however, do much to look after the poor. The government education system barely functions in Pakistan and for the poor, justice is almost impossible to come by. According to political scientist Ayesha Siddiqa: 'Both the military and the political parties have all failed to create an environment where the poor can get what they need from the state. So the poor have begun to look to alternatives for justice. In the long term, flaws in the system will create more room for the fundamentalists.'

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quote:

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Asif Ali Zardari, the husband of slain former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, announcing the decision at a press conference said that since his wife had nominated Fahim as acting chairperson of the party, he will be the PPP's candidate for prime minister. "I have firm belief that the CEC will nominate Fahim for the post."

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Bilawal is a symbolic chair -- the Chairman of the party must be at least 22 years old, so they will have to change their by-laws -- and Zardari has a real title but will not be a candidate for MP. In India at least Sonia Ghandi is an MP although she stood aside to let Manmohan Singh do the work. His Pakistani counterpart Amin Fahim will have an even freer hand.

Fahim had been offered the Prime Ministership by Musharraf but stayed loyal to Benazir. She had also just nominated Fahim to work with Nawaz Sharif's party on electoral "adjustments" for the 25 seats where they needed to work together to defeat Musharraf's candidate. So here's a guy everyone trusts. Amazing. And the PPP is likely to sweep the polls on a sympathy wave. As long as Fahim appoints a deputy leader from the Punjab, since he and Bilawal and Zardari are all Sindhis, so of course Fahim will do so.

The party of Nawaz Sharif said it was likely to abandon plans to boycott the poll after the PPP decision. "If they (PPP) don't mind contesting elections after Benazir Bhutto's assassination, then there is no point in our boycotting."

Pakistan could settle down faster than we thought.

[ 30 December 2007: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]

quote:

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It has been known for months that the Bush-Cheney administration and its allies have been manuevering to strengthen their political control of Pakistan, paving the way for the expansion and deepening of the “war on terrorism” across the region. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto does not change this agenda. In fact, it simplifies Bush-Cheney’s options. . .

The “war on terrorism” resparked

Every major Anglo-American geostrategic crime has been preceded by a convenient pretext, orchestrated and carried out by “terror” proxies directly or indirectly connected to US military-intelligence, or manipulated into performing as intelligence assets. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto is simply one more brutal example.

This was Pakistan’s 9/11; Pakistan’s JFK assassination, and its impact will resonate for years.

Contrary to mainstream corporate news reporting, chaos benefits Bush-Cheney’s “war on terrorism”. Calls for “increased worldwide security” will pave the way for a muscular US reaction, US-led force and other forms of “crack down” from Bush-Cheney across the region. In other words, the assassination helps ensure that the US will not only never leave, but also increase its presence.

The Pakistani election, if it takes place at all, is a simpler two-way choice: pro-US Musharraf or pro-US Sharif

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But it seems that the outcome might be closer cooperation between the PPP and Sharif on one hand... and more of the non-core votes sliding away from the religious parties and Musharraf's parties.

Which could mean a stronger hand against Musharaf??? Mussaharaf having to depend more completely on his hold over the military and other coercive forces?

[As oppossed to before the assasination: where his capacity to rig the elctions gave him a storonger hand for pulling in and compromising Banazir Bhutto.]

Technically, he can still rig the elections the same as before. But the after-election prospects of that are a lot more daunting if he faces a fairly united opposition, and a populace that hates him all the more, and whom more of have qualms about the religious parties who he has depended on.

Musharraf is not a risk taker. So if fixng the elections becames too blatant and too guaranteed to spark popular revolt... ????

?????

[ 30 December 2007: Message edited by: KenS ]

quote:

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Bilawal has been named the chairman of the Pakistan People's Party.

Bhutto's husband Asif Zardari, Abdul Makhdoom Fahim, deputy leader of PPP and Shah Mehmood Qureshi have been named co-chairmen of the party.

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quote:

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Mr Fahim, who along with Punjab PPP president Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi will sit on an advisory council . . .

Zardari . . . laid due emphasis on the PPP’s pro-federation stance, pointing out that anti-Pakistan slogans chanted by grief-stricken activists at the funeral did not represent the party’s policy. He also pointed out that most of Ms Bhutto’s bodyguards who fell in the Dec 27 attacks were from Punjab and had been befriended by him during his stay in jail.

The PPP decision to contest the upcoming polls is aimed at maximising the massive wave of sympathy across the country for the party.

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quote:

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The 19-year-old Bilawal is set to study political science at Oxford University. He graduated from Rashid School for Boys in Dubai. He successfully gained top grades in his GCSE exams. Physical fitness is important to Bilawal and he is already a black belt in Taekwondo.

He has two younger sisters, Bakhtawar and Aasifa.

PPP Senior Vice-Chairman, Makhdoom Amin Faheem presided over the party’s CEC meeting which was attended by the four provincial presidents of the party and members of the CEC.

Asif Zardari, Bilawal, Bakhtawar and Asifa attended on special invitations.

Bhutto's close aide Sherry Rehman had told NDTV that PPP cannot thrust party leadership on Bilawal. Rehman had said that Bilawal was keen to complete his studies but that does not rule him out.

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But nothing clear about any real power to make decision anywher in the PPP.

Which is consistent with Bhutto having discouraged succession preparation.

quote:

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Originally posted by KenS:
Remains to be seen whether this ponderous beast can do anything- let alone face daunting challenges in the very short term.

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with Sonia Gandhi looking over his shoulder, and the Left and BSP ready to pull the plug on short notice.

And yet he has lasted 3 years and eight months already.

By contrast, Fahim may well have a one-party majority, with little to worry about but the perils of success.

[ 30 December 2007: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]

India's Congress is fractious, but it has more maturity and depth than a feudal fiefdom.

Singh may well have done it against some odds, but he was able to get control of the reigns.

Quite possibly no one will be able to weild the PPP as the instrument it has for some time. Mind you, given the opportunity they have, they may all fall into place.

quote:

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Originally posted by KenS:
And Zidari at least is concerned with consolidating Biliwal's place in the sun later.

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Under Zaradri-Fahim the PPP may adopt a more cooperative attitude with Sharif's PML-N.

[ 31 December 2007: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]

quote:

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Originally posted by Boom Boom:
I think it's to be hoped that the PPP will say 'no' to this planned ongoing Bhutto dynasty. Why on earth should the slain Mrs. Bhutto have any say on who the PPP's leadership should be in the event of her death?

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That doesn't mean it can't change, but to overnight show the maturation you are talking about???

The fact Zadari has stood back just shows he's realistic. I realize that isn't to be assumed. But he is not respected even withing the PPP and would be a liability as public leader of the party. And who knows, he may be planning on keeping Fahim and everyone else weak so that after people have a chance to get used to 'the new Zadari', he steps in to take control, and people don't just let him have it, the same old circus. And that kind of planning wouldn't be something in his head, it would mean taking divisive steps the consequences of which will bite very soon [another reason for Musharaf to stall the election].

Even if he is just stepping back... it still doesn't demonstrate the PPP as an institution is in the process of maturing. Zadari has had lots of practice at being in the background.

quote:

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Why on earth should the slain Mrs. Bhutto have any say on who the PPP's leadership should be in the event of her death? That's nepotism and anti-democratic. There should be an election for the PPP leadership.

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quote:

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The Party also promised the elimination of feudalism in accordance with the established principles of socialism to protect and advance the interests of peasantry.

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Hardly consistent with the dynastic model of succession of rule which they seem to take for granted. It ocurred to me that this is the reality through which they experience the world. The Bhutto family may be seen as "The House of Bhutto", a great house, the leadership of which would naturally be inherited through primogeniture, much like Charles and in turn William will be heads of the House of Windsor unless they take active steps to renounce the job. The PPP serves as the political arm of this house, and the populist left is the territory they purport to stake out.

Not defending this in any way, but I find it useful to try to look at it through the lens that many in Pakistan will use.

quote:

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Originally posted by Wilf Day:
I think the PPP leadership all know the feudal times are ending. The fact that they are ending softly is a good thing for Pakistan in these times.

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quote:

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Originally posted by oldgoat:
"The Party also promised the elimination of feudalism in accordance with the established principles of socialism to protect and advance the interests of peasantry."

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Pfff! Well that would do it. Here is what Professor Chossudovsky of Ottawa U. has to say:

The Destabilization of Pakistan

quote:

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Pakistan has been subjected to the same deadly IMF "economic medicine" as Yugoslavia: In 1999, in the immediate wake of the coup d'Etat which brought General Pervez Musharaf to the helm of the military government, an IMF economic package, which included currency devaluation and drastic austerity measures, was imposed on Pakistan. Pakistan's external debt is of the order of US$40 billion. The IMF's "debt reduction" under the package was conditional upon the sell-off to foreign capital of the most profitable State owned enterprises (including the oil and gas facilities in Balochistan) at rockbottom prices.

Musharaf's Finance Minister was chosen by Wall Street, which is not an unusual practice. The military rulers appointed at Wall Street's behest, a vice-president of Citigroup, Shaukat Aziz, who at the time was head of CitiGroup's Global Private Banking.

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Marauding capital has been bargain hunting in Central Asia for a while now.

[ 31 December 2007: Message edited by: Fidel ]

quote:

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The day she was assassinated last Thursday, Benazir Bhutto had planned to reveal new evidence alleging the involvement of Pakistan's intelligence agencies in rigging the country's upcoming elections, an aide said Monday.

Bhutto had been due to meet U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., and Rep. Patrick Kennedy, D-R.I., to hand over a report charging that the military Inter-Services Intelligence agency was planning to fix the polls in the favor of President Pervez Musharraf.

Safraz Khan Lashari, a member of the Pakistan People's Party election monitoring unit, said the report was "very sensitive" and that the party wanted to initially share it with trusted American politicians rather than the Bush administration, which is seen here as strongly backing Musharraf.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Fidel:

Marauding capital has been bargain hunting in Central Asia for a while now.

[ 31 December 2007: Message edited by: Fidel ]

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Your post is very interesting, Fidel. I recently read that under Musharrif, Pakistan has made leaps forward in their economy.

Rawalpindi hospital medical staff have been severely intimidated into silence regarding Ms. Bhutto's cause of death,her medical records seized abruptly after her death was announced and the Pakistan government is denying that she was shot when video evidence confirms otherwise.

It is very problematic for the government to explain away the fact that an assassin slipped through their security. The logical conclusion is that either the ISI assasinated Bhutto or they enabled an unfolding plot by others to furthur Musharrif's aims.

I read Musharrif's self-serving memoir In The Line Of Fire. The unsuccessful attempts on his life show the utter ruthlessness and competence of the Pakistan security forces,especially the ISI.

1. Benazir Bhutto was prevented by the regime in providing for her own security, despite their transparent negligence. Bhutto had requested to be allowed to bring in her own foreign security specialists and was denied this by the dictatorship;

quote:

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The Party also promised the elimination of feudalism in accordance with the established principles of socialism to protect and advance the interests of peasantry.

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I think this articleby Tariq Ali throws some light on that.

[ 01 January 2008: Message edited by: RosaL ]

To now, Warshington not accepting al Qaeda theory

quote:

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Pakistan’s election commission announced Wednesday that parliamentary elections would be postponed until Feb. 18, a delay of six weeks, after the death of the opposition leader Benazir Bhutto and the riots that have damaged some election commission offices and paralyzed parts of Sindh Province.

The chief election commissioner, Qazi Muhammad Farooq, made the announcement in the capital, Islamabad. He said the commission had made the decision after consulting political parties and the chief secretaries of Pakistan’s four provinces.

Mr. Farooq said a number of election commission offices had been burnt, and ballot papers, voting lists and election screens destroyed in the protests since Ms. Bhutto’s assassination last week.

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quote:

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The Pakistan Peoples Party of slain opposition leader Benazir Bhutto will stand in general elections which have been delayed until February 18, a senior party official told AFP on Wednesday. “We are taking part in the elections,” Nabil Gabol, a member of the Pakistan People's Party central executive committee, said after a meeting here following the postponement of the vote from January 8.

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PPP leader Zahid Bashir said that his party was unhappy with the EC’s decision. However, he said with confident that the delay won’t affect his party’s chances in the elections. He is PPP party chief in Sialkot city.

"We condemn this decision,” said PPP leader Agha Siraj Durrani, adding party leaders were meeting to decide a response.

Agha Siraj Durrani is president of the PPP in Larkana and a family friend. He is not a CEC member but was Sindh Minister for Education when the PPP held power there. The CEC meeting dealing with the leadership was attended by about 70 non-members, including the party’s local leaders and close friends of Zardari such as Agha Siraj Durrani, Zulfiqar Mirza and his wife Fehmida Mirza.

quote:

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It turns out the Pakistani government is as good at public relations as they are at detective work.

After absurdly insisting for days that Benazir Bhutto had died from the blow of her head against the sun roof of her vehicle (when she ducked down due to the close range gun fire), the government seemed to finally come clean.

It was all the fault of the Interior Ministry's hasty spokesman, who'd floated the sun roof theory, it turned out. During a meeting with Pakistani newspaper journalists, the Interior Minister, Hamid Nawaz, asked them to "please forgive us and ignore the comment." Because, well, "we are not so articulate to present our views as you journalists can."

But it was only a couple of hours, apparently, before the government took back the take-back -- in the form of a "clarification." As Pakistan's News summarizes a government press release, "As a matter of fact [Nawaz] had merely appealed to the editors to overlook the tone and style of the spokesman which may not have been received well."

So it's back to the sun roof.

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A society girl with US style

quote:

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I admired Benazir Bhutto's courage and I am very sorry that she was killed, but she could never have been Pakistan's saviour.

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How arrogant is that? She was elected Prime Minister of Pakistan twice, a woman in charge of an Islamic country, but Dwyer thinks she is a "ineffective", a "girl".

Was she Pakistan's "saviour"? Of course not. Pakistan doesn't have a saviour.

Benazir Bhutto was a decent woman and a democrat gunned down by religious extremists, with the probable wilfully blind assistance of Pakistan's military dictatorship.

quote:

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Originally posted by jeff house:
Benazir Bhutto was a decent woman and a democrat gunned down by religious extremists, with the probable wilfully blind assistance of Pakistan's military dictatorship.

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quote:

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Originally posted by jeff house:
So Gwyn Dwyer thinks that Benzir Bhutto could not be "an effective politician?"

How arrogant is that? She was elected Prime Minister of Pakistan twice, a woman in charge of an Islamic country, but Dwyer thinks she is a "ineffective", a "girl".

Was she Pakistan's "saviour"? Of course not. Pakistan doesn't have a saviour.

Benazir Bhutto was a decent woman and a democrat gunned down by religious extremists, with the probable wilfully blind assistance of Pakistan's military dictatorship.

So let's all dump on her now that she's dead.

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But I'm quite sure Gwynne Dyer could have written, and perhaps will write, a piece on how things could well get even worse. It's weird that Zardari is the one quoted by Saeed Shah as saying this, but I expect he's only echoing others with more credibility but less visibility:

quote:

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Asif Zardari, husband of murdered Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, has called for President Pervez Musharraf to resign and warned that the country could turn into another Somalia.

He described Pakistan's role in the so-called war on terror, which he described as "shadow boxing". "That shadow-boxing is going to turn into a giant and take over the country one day," he said. "They didn't want her coming into power because these shadow-boxing games could not go on."

He warned that Pakistan was hurtling towards disintegration, a failed state. "My fears are of Pakistan being totally broken up," he said. "Being converted into Somalia. I think that is a great possibility. And I think that everybody, every intellectual, is not really paying attention to it because they have got their head in the ground, like ostriches."

Underlining the severity of the threat, he continued: "Somalia had 30 million population. We're 175 million. Somalia did not have the Afghan arms on the border. Somalia did not have hundreds and thousands of madrassas [Islamic schools]."

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[ 02 January 2008: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]

quote:

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Originally posted by oldgoat:
The Bhutto family may be seen as "The House of Bhutto", a great house, the leadership of which would naturally be inherited through primogeniture, much like Charles and in turn William will be heads of the House of Windsor unless they take active steps to renounce the job. The PPP serves as the political arm of this house, and the populist left is the territory they purport to stake out.

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The problem with analysing Pakistan from this distance is that we can sound awfully insulting if we make excuses for their stages of political development. Better to quote them.

Saeed Shah again, this time in the Globe and Mail (I wish I could find something on his background):

quote:

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Before the announcement of the party's new leaders, one of the mourners, who continued to stream into the Bhutto house in Naudero yesterday, explained why only a member of the family could lead the party.

“The people of this country only want a Bhutto,” said Mohammed Ali Bhutto, a distant relative. “They don't trust anyone else. Our people are uneducated. They don't trust any party, only the Bhuttos.”

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And yet Benazir’s cousin and officially the Sardar of the Bhutto tribe was in the good books of Benazir. Which cousin? Not Mumtaz, I don't think.

In the 2002 election for the Sindh Provincial Assembly ten candidates surnamed Bhutto ran (I don't know how many others were part of the Bhutto tribe with different surnames):

One (Mumtaz's son Amir Bakhsh Bhutto) for the National Alliance (which apparently included the Sindh National Front), who almost won with 42% of the vote.

One for the PPP (he came third with 20% of the vote).

One for the Islamist MMA (getting 13%).

One for the MQM (getting 6%).

Two for the PPP (Shaheed) which was a splinter anti-Benazir group (one getting 4% of the vote, one getting 149 votes).

One for the Pakistan Freedom Party (he got 52 votes).

Three independents (getting 45, 32 and 14 votes).

[ 03 January 2008: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]

Some would even claim that the Bush family, beginning with US Senator Prescott Bush, his son George Bush, and his grandson, George W. Bush, are also a dynasty of this sort.

I think it is regrettable, because dynasties allow people to jump to conclusions about policy based on heritage.

However, it isn't really much like royalty, because in each of the cases, the dynasty goes nowhere if electoral politics is not mastered.

quote:

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Originally posted by jeff house:
Witness the "Kennedy Dynasty".

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It was a bad time to be a weak Liberal moderate with paranoid megalomaniacals in the Pentagon and shadow government. Kennedy tried appeasing political hawks with Bay of Pigs, but he wasn't quite enough of a warmonger to suit them. Fidel might have trusted U.S. managed elections if it wasn't for the CIA's attempted counterrevolution.

quote:

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I never agreed with her politics. I never did. I never agreed with those she kept around her, the political opportunists, hanger-ons, them. They repulse me.

I never agreed with her version of events. Never. But in death, in death perhaps there is a moment to call for calm. To say, enough. We have had enough. We cannot, and we will not, take anymore madness.

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quote:

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It was under Ms. Bhutto’s watch that the Pakistani intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence, first installed the Taliban in Afghanistan. It was also at that time that hundreds of young Islamic militants were recruited from the madrassas to do the agency’s dirty work in Indian Kashmir. It seems that, like some terrorist equivalent of Frankenstein’s monster, the extremists turned on both the person and the state that had helped bring them into being.

. . . .

Ms. Bhutto’s governments were widely criticized by Amnesty International and other groups for their use of death squads and terrible record on deaths in police custody, abductions and torture. As for her democratic bona fides, she had no qualms about banning rallies by opposing political parties while in power.

Within her own party, she declared herself the president for life and controlled all decisions. She rejected her brother Murtaza’s bid to challenge her for its leadership and when he persisted, he was shot dead in highly suspicious circumstances during a police ambush outside the Bhutto family home.

Benazir Bhutto was certainly a brave and secular-minded woman. But the obituaries painting her as dying to save democracy distort history. Instead, she was a natural autocrat who did little for human rights, a calculating politician who was complicit in Pakistan’s becoming the region’s principal jihadi paymaster while she also ramped up an insurgency in Kashmir that has brought two nuclear powers to the brink of war.

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from "The Dust of Empire" by historian Karl Meyer:

quote:

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p.115: "...The Central Intelligence Agency orchestrated massive arms shipments via Pakistan, including state-of-the-art Stinger surface-to-air missiles. Three U.S. administrations promoted a bipartisan pokicy of covert aid that persisted through a decade of occupation. Presidents Carter, Reagan, and Bush pére hailed the mujahedin as "freedom fighters," and their acclaim was echoed on Capitol Hill and by editorial boards coast to coast..."

p.132: "...In Islamabad, Brzezinski agreed to an arrangment that determined what followed. Its key provision was that all arms for the resistance were to be covertly channeled through Pakistan and not directly from the United States. On this matter, Zia was adamant: Pakistan's Inter-Service Intelligence agency was to recieve and distribute all weapons. His terms were accepted in Washington without serious debate....

p.133: "...As the frontline state in a holy war, Pakistan in a decade harvested more than $3 billion in aid from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf sheikdoms, even as Islamabad turned to the godless Chinese for supplemental help. Materially, this enabled Pakistan's armed forces to deduct its tithe in weapons and cash. Moreover, as soon became evident, President Zia's military intelligence service had it's own agenda. Here was it's long sought opportunity to acquire "strategic depth" by installing a new regime in Kabul that would be under Islamabad's influence. Here was a chance to train militants for the ongoing fight in Kashmir. Finally, once a friendly fundamentalist regime took root in Afghanistan, the sword of Islam could be directed at Soviet Central Asia.

p.135 "...Yet once the Soviets were gone, Washington all but literally walked away, abandoning the wounded, closing purses and hearts, sending no special emissaries to help form a transition regime..."

"...To fight the Soviets, the CIA provided weapons and funds exceeding $3 billion to the Afghan resistance; after the Russians vacated, U.S. aid dwindled to a pittance. Anger at being treated like discarded mercenaries turned thousands of resistance fighters into easy converts for Islamic jihadists.

" ...In practice, Weaver found, the CIA helped train and fund what eventually became an international network of highly diciplined Islamic militants, the "Arab Afghans" or the "Children of the Jihad", an new breed of terrorists. "When the Soviet Union left Afghanistan and the CIA closed down it's pipeline to the mujahideen," she writes, Washington left behind tens of thousands fo well-trained and well-armed Arab, Asian, and Afghan fighers available for new jihads"

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from Zia, to Bhutto, to Musharraf, they all were complicit with the U.S. and the CIA in this strategy, and the result was the subsequent well known terrorist attacks including both WTC bombings, the creation of the "Taliban" and "Al-Qeada" not to mention mentoring Bin Laden.

unfortunately, lost in all the outpouring of revisionist sympathy for Bhutto, is the acknowlegement the west is reaping what it intentionally sowed.

what i've posted could easily be used in any of our Afghanistan threads about Canadian troop involvement and why we should have never signed on in the first place.

The British created most of the non-Soviet central asian and middle eastern borders to satisfy their imperialist strategies, and the U.S. carried on with the intent to control the oil and undermine any secular socialist governments that were developing. Bhutto was a toady just like the others, but to expect the people of Pakistan to have to clean up the mess others created is offensive to say the least.

What i find absolutely incredulous, is that the British, who partially set up the circumstances for Bhutto's assasination, are now being asked to help investigate it, and the ISI, who are clearly in league if not direct control of the "terrorists" were in charge of her security.

it truely boggles the mind that we are being asked to swallow this load of excrement.

[ 04 January 2008: Message edited by: farnival ]

Barnett Rubin writes: The time that the electoral commission could use to reconstitute the infrastructure for a free and fair election is also time that could be used to reconstitute the infrastructure for rigging.

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The ISI has an electoral cell that, among other things, conducts polling.

This does not require rigging every constituency, but controlling the media and administration to create a positive environment for the military's allies, and then rigging only a few dozen constituencies where the outcome is nonetheless in doubt (plus constituencies of key leaders). The principal technique is the printing of more ballots than are needed and the establishment of "ghost polling places" in the constituencies that are to be rigged. The excess ballots are filled out for the desired candidates and placed in "ballot boxes" belonging to the ghost polling places. The ballot boxes and their fictitious totals are forwarded to the returning officer together with the legitimate ballots. The system needs only to approximate its target to achieve the desired political results.

This method of rigging is not visible to foreign election observers.

It is not just a random problem that the "pro-American moderate" institution headed by General Musharraf executed Benazir's father and held her for years in solitary confinement.

The (US) administration's plan for Pakistan was based on a model of transition from authoritarianism that took place in several Latin American countries, which is known as a "pacted transition." The basic idea is that the "moderates" in the bureaucratic authoritarian regime and the "moderates" in the democratic opposition negotiate a peaceful process of extrication of the military from power through elections, which may initially be "guided" rather than "free and fair." Of course pacted transitions give rise to "democracies with birth defects." Among those birth defects are continued control by the military over key areas of policy and the limited consolidation of democracy.

After the death of General Zia, whom Bhutto and many Pakistanis held responsible for her father's death, she was able to return.

But her electoral victory did not settle the issue. Bhutto first had to negotiate with the military and agree not to remove military authority over security issues, notably Afghanistan, the nuclear program, Kashmir, and senior military appointments. After the failed attempt by the ISI with U.S. backing to orchestrate the conquest of the Afghan city of Jalalabad in March 1989 (using not only Afghan mujahidin but also al-Qaida), Bhutto sacked ISI director General Hamid Gul. Other conflicts with the military ensued. As a result, the military had President Ghulam Ishaq Khan remove her on corruption charges in August 1990. The military and bureaucracy rigged the elections in October 1990 so that she would be defeated by Nawaz Sharif.

When Nawaz Sharif in turn became too independent, it was his turn to be sacked. This was followed by two rounds of alternance determined by the military (Bhutto in 1994, Sharif in 1996). The final confrontation between Nawaz Sharif and General Musharraf was provoked again by a struggle over the military's prerogatives. Sharif charged that Musharraf organized the Kargil campaign in Kashmir on his own initiative, while Sharif was pursuing negotiations with the U.S. over Bin Laden behind Musharraf's back.

The leaders of the Pakistan military, of which Musharraf is a typical example, do not see themselves primarily as "pro-American moderates" battling with "anti-American extremists." They see themselves as responsible for building a powerful militarized state in Pakistan representing the heritage of Islamic empires in South and Central Asia against the threat from India and the selfish maneuvers of politicians (not necessarily in that order).

The military allies with the U.S. because that is the only way to get the weapons and money for their national security project and to prevent the U.S. from aligning with India. It has nothing to do with "moderation." The "pro-American moderate" Pakistan military has used the "anti-American extremist" jihadis for its national security project. (By the way, the Afghan Taliban were not originally anti-American. In 1997, Wakil Ahmad Mutawakkil, who later became foreign minister, told a meeting I was chairing at Columbia University that the Taliban would help the U.S. "in its struggle against international terrorism," and nobody wanted to build the Unocal pipeline more than they did.)

So why did Musharraf enter into negotiations with Bhutto? As Chief of Army Staff, Musharraf occupied a role similar to that of head of the ruling party in a one-party dominant system. His party, the military, unlike the other parties, is a disciplined cadre organization which, along with its fellow travelers (civilian allies of the military) controls all the key levers of power, including the civil administration and the judiciary. Such control is, it believes, required by the national interest. Musharraf added to this an economic policy under the guidance of his Prime Minister, former Citibank official Shaukat Aziz, that has indeed succeeded to some extent. In fact it helped create the middle class and new communications media that are leading the fight to oust Musharraf.

In order to maintain the essential base of his party's control (U.S. weapons and money) after 9/11, Musharraf had to abandon the military's historic political alliance with the religious right and its allied militants.But Pakistan is not a "banana republic," i.e. a tiny country with a single cohesive landowning elite that can run a dictatorship informally through intimidation, violence, and patronage (though these have a role to play). It is a country of 160 million with one of the largest cities in the world (Karachi) and a well-developed middle class. Running such a country requires a higher degree of institutionalization and political legitimation. Hence Musharraf needed new political allies to run institutions.

But he did not want political allies to negotiate a transition to democracy: he wanted political allies to legitimate continued military rule. The Islamist parties were willing to partner with the military on that basis, because it was their only way of acceding to power. But the PPP and the PML-N (Nawaz Sharif's party) could actually win elections. While the military tried to use Washington's interest in an alliance of "moderates" to legitimate its own rule, it could not allow a party that actually aspired to rule to come to power. Enter the PML-Q (Musharraf's party, aka the King's Party). The military assembled this party out of notables of various sorts to represent those civilian allies that supported military rule. This description does not apply to every official of the PML-Q (some of whom are friends of mine), who joined for different reasons. Some, in particular, supported the relatively successful economic policies of Shaukat Aziz. But the party exists basically in order to win elections rigged by the military.

Benazir Bhutto, however, probably imagined that the opening provided by the U.S. pressure on Musharraf for a "moderate" alliance (to legitimate Musharraf's power for the sake of the "War on Terror," not democracy) might provide her with an opening she could exploit to regain power. I will not attempt to judge among the various claims about Bhutto -- from heroine of democracy to power-hungry corrupt feudal. I will just note that she knew she was risking her life and did not need to do so. When President Karzai met her the morning of her death, she told the Afghans she feared she would be assassinated soon. She represented the hopes of millions of people. To represent them, she would have had to challenge the military's power. Nor did she take the easy populist route (seemingly chosen by Nawaz Sharif) of belittling the threat of the militants. Though what she said about the militants pleased Washington, many things she said about General Musharraf did not. I believe that events will tragically show that she was right.

Her strategy appeared to be to exploit the military's weakness and the support of the U.S. to enlarge the space for her party's power, and therefore, in the flawed sense this word has in the real world, of democracy. (The family inheritance of leadership has a rational function too: without it, there is a good chance that the PPP would tear itself apart in factional struggles. It still might do so, but the appointment of her son as heir and her husband as regent has provided some breathing space.)

But Musharraf was not going to let her win. On December 11 Dawn published a story purportedly announcing the "official poll results" nearly a month before the scheduled elections. The PML-Q was to win the most seats, with the PPP second and PML-N third. The numbers were chosen in such a way that the Islamist parties that supported the Afghan Taliban, the military's old partners, would have few seats but enough to hold the balance of power.

A genuine free election in Pakistan today could very well confront President Musharraf with a parliament that would not recognize him and that would openly challenge the power of the army. But the military no longer has the capacity or legitimacy to rule Pakistan. The time for a pacted transition is past. The choice before Pakistan is democracy or disintegration.

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[ 04 January 2008: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]

quote:

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Investigators from Scotland Yard have concluded that Benazir Bhutto, the Pakistani opposition leader, died after hitting her head as she was tossed by the force of a suicide blast, not from an assassin’s bullet, officials who have been briefed on the inquiry said Thursday.

The findings support the Pakistani government’s explanation of Ms. Bhutto’s death in December, an account that had been greeted with disbelief by Ms. Bhutto’s supporters, other Pakistanis and medical experts.

. . . .

It is unclear how the Scotland Yard investigators reached such conclusive findings absent autopsy results or other potentially important evidence that was washed away by cleanup crews in the immediate aftermath of the blast, which also killed more than 20 other people.

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