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The largest political rally Bolivia has ever seen looks a lot like a good-natured celebration after a World Cup victory.

The crowd of 500,000 people – more than 5 per cent of the country’s population – fills one of Santa Cruz’s main avenues with green and white, the colours of Bolivia’s fiercely proud second city.

[...]

The atmosphere may be festive, but the residents of Bolivia’s most economically dynamic department have gathered ahead of a referendum on Sunday to send a defiant message to the government of Evo Morales: they want his government to give the region political autonomy.

“We need to protect our resources and keep them here,” says Silvio Rocha, a 37-year-old college teacher who has travelled 75km from the town of Minero to attend the rally. “We’ve had enough of sending 80 per cent of our taxes to La Paz and getting nothing in return.”

Bolivia remains a highly centralised state, but in Santa Cruz at least, the nationwide referendum looks likely to give a massive mandate for devolution. Modest estimates are that 60 per cent of voters will back autonomy, while Yes activists are hoping for up to 90 per cent.

That could put Santa Cruz, a conservative and resource-rich lowland region traditionally dominated by a local business elite, on a collision course with Mr Morales’s leftwing administration, which draws most of its support from the largely indigenous highlands in the west of the country.

[...]

In a direct attack on Mr Morales, he compares the president to the Nazi Josef Goebbels and Louis XIV of France. “Enough of totalitarianism, enough of the march towards socialism, enough of centralism!” he says to wild cheers.

Mr Rocha is more direct: “If Evo tries to resist our demand for autonomy, there will be civil war,” he says. “And if that happens, we will be forced to defend ourselves.”

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The democratically elected Morales government was elected on a platform of more public control over the resources that belong to the people of Bolivia. The government recently nationalized the natural gas industry and more is to follow.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch of imperialism, the governments of Colombia and Peru recently signed "trade" agreements with the U.S. which seem designed to harm Bolivian trade with those 2 sister countries of Latin America. This is the background of the People's Trade Agreement between Cuba, Venezuela and Bolivia that was recently worked out. It looks like the US is already carrying out economic warfare against Bolivia. No doubt, the US is also playing its "helpful" role in the recent events.

So-called "free trade" is death for the people of Latin America. It goes without saying that the USA is in favour of such "agreements" and would like to keep the people of Latin America, like people around the world, in the permanent bondage of neo colonialism. With the election of the Morales and Chavez governments in Bolivia and Venezuela that tide of death is turning. May the anti-colonial spirit of Simon Bolivar prevail!

[ 02 July 2006: Message edited by: N.Beltov ]

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Originally posted by N.Beltov:
An oil rich part of the country with separatist tendencies? Imagine that. It could never happen here.

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Actually, it's natural gas, minerals, and rich agricultural land. But your point is well-taken

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Originally posted by Ken Burch:
And the Pinochetistas of Bolivia make their first appearance.

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I heard much the same rhetoric in Alberta during the NEP days. Fortunately, in neither case is it coming from the Armed Forces (at least, not yet).

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It's quite possible that Evo will lose the vote on autonomy, but let's not exaggerate the consequences. If the country votes in favour of moving towards autonomy, it will be a challenge for the constituent assembly (and/or the government) to find some workable formula. That doesn't imply civil war any more than Quebec or Albertan separatism do for Canada.

I think the FT article is simply part of the right-wing media's campaign against Evo Morales. Rumours of civil war can only serve to increase pressure on Bolivia; particularly in the Financial Times whose intended readership is the financial community.

Morales still enjoys majority support, even in Santa Cruz (54%). The only Bolivian city where his approval rate is under 50% is Trinidad, Beni. (The poll I'm quoting can be found here.. Although it's in Spanish, it shouldn't be hard to figure out. If you click on the magnifying glass labeled "Ampliar foto" you'll be able to see the results by city.)

Constituent Assembly: MAS 55%, PODEMOS 21%. Should give MAS a comfortable majority, but possibly not the 70% Morales was hoping for.

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Preliminary results, based on exit polls:

Constituent Assembly: MAS 55%, PODEMOS 21%. Should give MAS a comfortable majority, but possibly not the 70% Morales was hoping for.

Autonomy Referendum: No 53%, Yes 47%

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55% is still a solid majority, what happened to the other 24%?

Do these numbers give Morales enough to press through with the chnages Bolivia so desperately needs?

I believe that in order for the Constituent Assembly to actually approve a new constitution, they would need a 2/3 majority. I don't know if MAS got that -- the electoral system they're using is not proportional, but the various predictions floating around are rather less than 2/3. So some negotiation will be needed.

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Morales Gets Half a Victory

Franz Chávez

LA PAZ, Jul 3 (IPS) - Bolivia's leftist government scored a victory in elections for a Constituent Assembly, but failed to win two-thirds of the seats, so it will have to negotiate the terms of the new constitution with its opponents. Four departments (provinces) also made clear their desire for autonomy.

Surveys for a media network by the polling firm Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado Bolivia, predicted that the governing Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) had won 134 out of the 255 Assembly seats up for election on Sunday.

The administration of indigenous President Evo Morales and its political allies fell far short of the 170 assembly members needed to push through fundamental transformations in the system of government, change the market-oriented economic model, and introduce self-determination for indigenous peoples.

Other political forces, such as the Free Bolivia Movement (MBL), put their weight behind the MAS candidates and added to the number elected, as the president himself admitted.

In any case, the outcome was a historic result for Bolivia's indigenous peoples, who are struggling to defend their lands and natural resources for the good of the country, Morales said after the election. Three million voters flocked to the polls to elect the Constituent Assembly and to vote Yes or No on a proposal for departmental autonomy.

The president also said that national unity had been preserved by the overall victory of the No votes with respect to departmental autonomy, which amounted to 56.2 percent of the total, although in four of the country's nine departments the majority voted Yes for the system of autonomy, which they can embark on after the new constitution is approved in 2007. ...

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The Bolivian election authority has been slowing tabulating the votes for the constitutional assembly and the referendum on regional autonomy. They're apparently more than 95% complete, with complete results in five of the country's nine regions.

Miguel Centellas has a good projection of the final seat count and some useful commentary. He also has a run-down on the minor parties. (All in English.)