Here's a link to the story:

http://www.mytelus.com/ncp_news/article.en.do?pn=regional/british_columbia&articleID=3007215

I thought the call might becoming because Arthur Griffiths has opened a campaign office in the Davie Village and when I stuck my head in the storefront the other day they were pretty sure the announcement would be coming any day - well today is the day.

Gregor chose to resign his - Lorne I believe because he is running federally had to resign his.

quote:

---

Griffiths, lives in a mansion in Point Grey, one of Vancouver's wealthiest neighbourhoods.

---

[ 01 October 2008: Message edited by: brookmere ]

quote:

---

Originally posted by Politics101:
I believe it is Spencer Herbert who is at present a Vision party parks board member.

Spencer is gay which will help him with a portion of the gay vote in the riding.

---

Herbert was actually elected on the COPE ticket, not Vision. IIRC, Vision didn't run candidates for Parks Board in 2005.

I knew Herbert was a candidate for the nomination for the new Vancouver-West End riding in the upcoming 2009 general election, but has he been nominated to run in the existing Vancouver-Burrard riding in the by-election?

I would like to think that LGBTQ people don't base their vote on a candidate's sexual orientation. In any event, it didn't exactly help Tim Stevenson in 2005, did it?

On that point, here's a great map that shows the poll-by-poll breakdown in Burrard. Basically the NDP did very well in the West End (the Burrard-Robson-Denman-Davie quadrangle) and got slaughtered in Yaletown, Coal Harbour, and the north side of False Creek.

What is clear from this map is that the new Vancouver-West End seat should be a slam-dunk for the NDP, while Vancouver-False Creek will be equally safe for the Liberals.

I'd give the edge to the NDP in the Burrard by-election given the narrowness of Mayencourt's victory in 2005 and the fact that the current climate seems to favour the NDP. The Liberal dominance of the 'owner-occupier' demographic, which is more likely to vote, means that the strength of the NDP's GOTV operation will be key.

[ 01 October 2008: Message edited by: ghoris ]

Name recognition always help in short campaigns so Arthur may have a slight edge there as well.
He already has his election signs on a storefront on Granville Mall. During Davie days last month both of these candidates had booths and both were fairly busy but Arthur had a lot of Seniors talking to him - probably know his mother.

The NDP always does a better job of cross-marketing their candidates so they will use the current federal campaign to promote Spencer.

quote:

---

As I recall he is also married to a former cheerleader 20 years his junior

---

"Herbert was actually elected on the COPE ticket, not Vision. IIRC, Vision didn't run candidates for Parks Board in 2005."

quote:

---

quote: As I recall he is also married to a former cheerleader 20 years his junior

Why should this matter?

---

quote:

---

Griffiths, lives in a mansion in Point Grey, one of Vancouver's wealthiest neighbourhoods.

---

quote:

---

hereditary wealth gets you

---

1) Will Sterk say she's running here "because she needs to get into the house?" Because at best (for her) I could see her being a spoiler to the NDP holding the riding, and at worst (for her) I could see her getting her ass handed to her ala Adrianne Carr in Surrey-Panorama Ridge circa 2004. Though to be fair maybe this is a profile boosting exercise. But frankly, being the leader of a third provincial party isn't going to get you much of a profile regardless of what you do. I suppose a Greeny will point out London-North Centre to me, but I think the parallels are questionable.

2) She's probably going to say she wants to provide the residents with effective representation. But this is debatable, seeing as she comes from across the sea. I mean it's one thing to live a riding or two over. But she doesn't even live in the Vancouver, let alone Metro Vancouver, let alone the mainland. Parachuting may not completely damage her candidacy. And urbanites don't necessarily mind parachuting to an extent. And yep, 1996-2005 MLA Gary Collins was originally a parachute candidate in 1996. But for one he had a much higher profile as a high-ranking Liberal opposition critic, two the riding was more Liberal friendly at the time as it extended further south and west, and three he was still in the Metro Vancouver. Seriously. Esquimalt?!? WTF.

One of the reasons I think parachuting will hurt Sterk is because of the Canada Line issue. The lack of sensitivity the Liberals have shown the locals have hurt them, but will she have the credibility to appeal to the locals on the issue, seeing as there is no discernible way she could've "shared our pain" as it were?

3) Speaking of the spoiler thing, is that really what this is all about? Seeing as the Greens, and Liberals are the two pro-Carbon Tax parties, maybe this is some sort of a way to get back at the NDP for opposing the policy. I suspect she's going to hammer the NDP on this. And even though this may be one of the better ridings (say vis a vis Prince George-Mount Robson or something) to be pro-Carbon Tax on, I suspect it's still unpopular to a majority here.

quote:

---

Is it not traditional for a party leader to run in the first available by-election?

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Politics101:
Doesn't Alexa Mcdonaugh of the NDP also come from a family with inherited wealth - isn't here father a well to do Nova Scotian.

---

Was. Lloyd Shaw (1914-1993) was the first national reasearch director of the CCF, Provincial Secretary of the Nova Scotia wing until 1949, and was a four-time CCF candidate in 1945, 1948, 1949 and 1974.

He was also heir to the L.E. Shaw Ltd. brickmaking firm, now the Shaw Group, and became its President and CEO following World War II.

[Edited to fix links.]

[ 03 October 2008: Message edited by: ghoris ]

These by-election cannot be compared to the Surrey one a few years ago for the Greens. Fairview is the home to many Greens who voted for Gregor in 2005.

We will get a strong result and will suffer from 0 need for strategic voting. It will be the first chance for Vancouver voters to have a clear conscious vote in awhile.

quote:

---

Is it not traditional for a party leader to run in the first available by-election? Lets face it - if she didn't run in one of the two available ridings the question would be "why not".

As a former Vancouver -Fairview resident who has voted both NDP and Green in past elections I expect Sterk to do well in V-F. I can assure you that the various conspiracy theories such as "the Greens were created just to screw the NDP up" are a crock. We live in a multi party world. The Greens are now a player in that multi-party world.

---

I think she has the potential to do well. But I think she also has the potential to bomb. And, since we're throwing out credentials, as a current resident of Vancouver-Fairview I can assure you that the Canadaline issue is pretty massive in the riding, which is why I think it's odd that a non-resident (and about as big of a parachute candidate you could find) would run here.

[ 04 October 2008: Message edited by: ghoris ]

The by-elections are quite a muse as we are not even having a fall sitting of the legislature.

As for what the NDP can do to win Burrard. Is Spencer Hebert a local? That would help, also is the local NDP able to canvass in apartment buildings? Seriously. But I suspect so long as Yaletown is a part of the riding it's going to stay Liberal. Unfortunately.

[ 15 October 2008: Message edited by: Vansterdam Kid ]

Griffiths name is well known from his sport and businesses while Herbert has some exposure from being on the Parks Board.

As for GOTV - slight edge to the NDP who are usually better at it but Arthur will probably do well with the Seniors vote and they generally tend to vote while Spencer might have a little more difficulty getting the younger votes to vote.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Politics101:
In a short campaign name recognition and get out the vote are two keys - and here the verdict might be mixed.

Griffiths name is well known from his sport and businesses while Herbert has some exposure from being on the Parks Board.

As for GOTV - slight edge to the NDP who are usually better at it but Arthur will probably do well with the Seniors vote and they generally tend to vote while Spencer might have a little more difficulty getting the younger votes to vote.

I do agree with Dr Conway that in the general election next May the results could be reversed but incumbents usually have a slight edge + if Arthur were to win and go into cabinet that is usually considered a plus in an election as well.

---

Name recognition: unfortunately, I have to give the edge to Griffiths here. I don't think more than about 10% of the voters could name the members of the Park Board.

GOTV: the NDP usually has a superior 'machine' but obviously the Liberals have been no slouches the last couple elections. I think the key factor is the point you made - Herbert's support will come overwhelmingly from younger renters who are a) less likely to vote at the best of times and b) are probably clueless that there's even a by-election. Griffiths' support will come overwhelmingly from older owner-occupier voters who are more likely to vote. This natural advantage for the Liberals can be overcome with a good machine but is it possible to put one together in the wake of the federal campaign?

The other factor is the generic party label - are people more likely to opt for the NDP label right now or the Liberal label? Probably a slight advantage to the NDP here as governments typically tend not to fare well in by-elections.

All that said, at the end of the day what happens in the by-election is pretty much moot because there is virtually no chance of Griffiths getting elected on the new boundaries in Vancouver-West End in the general in May.

[ 15 October 2008: Message edited by: ghoris ]

quote:

---

Originally posted by ghoris:
All that said, at the end of the day what happens in the by-election is pretty much moot

---

Interesting that the two by-elections fall almost
within the boundary of Vancouver Centre.

But I have to emphasize that it's important for the New Democrats to win both ridings otherwise NDP momentum could become deflated heading into next May's vote, especially with Vancouver-Fairview.

quote:

---

All that said, at the end of the day what happens in the by-election is pretty much moot because there is virtually no chance of Griffiths getting elected on the new boundaries in Vancouver-West End in the general in May

---

He won't run in False Creek because the Liberals have already nominated former Cancer Foundation CEO Mary McNeil to run there. (BC political junkies may recall that she ran for the Tory nomination for the Quadra by-election but lost to Deborah Meredith.)

Spencer was canvassing in Davie Village and getting a fairly good reception from the passing masses.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Politics101:
Looks like the Marijuana Party is serious in this riding - they were out campaigning at English Bay this afternoon - they were handling out campaign literature but when I asked for a some free samples they claimed not to have any.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Politics101:

Spencer was canvassing in Davie Village and getting a fairly good reception from the passing masses.

He answered my question about the redevelopment of St Paul's and I gave him a couple of ideas of where some people might be sheltered during the winter.

---

If you don't mind my asking, what was the question about St. Paul's and what was the response?

quote:

---

Originally posted by DrConway:
It's too bad they can't say "You elected a putrid little shitbag last time, try to do better this time with Spencer Herbert!"

I would totally approve, but of course you can't say things like that in campaign literature.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Politics101:
What ever happen to the principle that only those who were either working for one of the parties on election day or were going to be out of town on election day ( my reason for voting early )voted in the advance poll - now it seems like every body just shows up and votes - probably one of the reasons why there were long line-ups.

---

Yeah, it seems that alot of people vote in the advance polls these days, both federally as well as provincially, in order to get away from the crowds on voting day.

I can only comment on Burrard as that is the one that I live in and are working on. Because of the makeup of the riding both parties have there strengths - the NDP in the West End and among Seniors and the Liberals in Coal Harbour and Yaletown - because most of the growth in is those two areas the Liberals feel that they have a slight advantage. I think the party that does the best job in getting out the vote will win and it could be close.

While the boundaries aren't totally the same as Vancouver Center federally - the combined Fry/Mayencourt vote was over 60% in the recent federal election.

The voting at the advance poll has been steady the last three days and concludes today. I don't have access to what the advance poll #'s were back in 2005 so I can't tell if there is more interest or not.

quote:

---

While the boundaries aren't totally the same as Vancouver Center federally - the combined Fry/Mayencourt vote was over 60% in the recent federal election.

---

Why is that relevent - there are undoubtedly a vast number of "Hedy Fry federal Liberal voters" who hate Gordon Campbell and everything he and his BC Liberal/Social Credit/federal Tory/Reform Party represents and who will vote NDP provincially.

[ 25 October 2008: Message edited by: Stockholm ]

And before the Mayencourt era, the riding's MLAs were both New Democrats: Emery Barnes from 1991-1996 and Stevenson from 1996-2001

Obviously it would be unwise to underestimate the Liberal vote in Burrard, but it's not at all a safe seat for the Campbell clan.

[ 25 October 2008: Message edited by: asterix ]

As an aside, I got some literature from Griffiths the other day. You'd think he was running for the Green Party. Even the BC Liberal logo was green! No pictures of him with Campbell (no surprise). Downplaying the Liberal brand while playing up Griffiths' biography and some of the highlights of the government record. Professional looking, but not quite as well-put-together as Herbert's. Lots of text-probably more than most voters will read.

Also, GC announced that their will be a fall sitting after all, so the position should actually be relevant. I wouldn't bet money on this race. People may vote Green as a guilt free protest. People may vote for Griffiths and the doctor because of name recognition. People may vote NDP if they can run a GOTV.

Unless the Greens somehow win, this by-election will mean very little. It is so low key, that it cannot be taken as a litmus test for the general election.

As for turn out - there was a steady stream of people at both advance polling locations over the past 4 days - somewhere about 1500 at Sunset Towers in the West End which is where I was stationed - don't know how this compares with 2005 - perhaps someone has that information.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Politics101:
As for turn out - there was a steady stream of people at both advance polling locations over the past 4 days - somewhere about 1500 at Sunset Towers in the West End

---

Just checked the advance polling figures for 2005, and the Sunset Towers polling division had 2,029 advance votes (the other polling division being Roundhouse Community Centre.)

quote:

---

Originally posted by Politics101:
Ghoris - I am like you - I will be in the new False Creek riding next May but personally I consider voting to be one of the fundamental rights of a democracy and I therefore voted in this by-election.

---

He also told me he ran in to the BCL riding association president, who assured him the same. Apparently they feel that Griffith is just too high profile, and with (the lack of) vote turn out benefiting the BCL, they cannot loose.

It came off as extremely arrogant to me.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Politics101:
Both candidates are out main streeting and both are concentrating on their areas of strength - Spencer - west of Burrard and Arthur - east of Burrard - in a short by-election it is important to get your supporters out to vote and this is best done by concentrating on the areas where you have the most support.

---

Yes, I agree. It's important that each candidate make sure the voters in their areas of strengh know that we are having a by-election.

quote:

---

A friend of mine who was recently on the Vancouver-Burrard BC Liberal riding association bluntly told me a couple of nights ago that "Arthur is going to win". It was interesting. There was no doubt in his mind.
He also told me he ran in to the BCL riding association president, who assured him the same. Apparently they feel that Griffith is just too high profile, and with (the lack of) vote turn out benefiting the BCL, they cannot loose.

It came off as extremely arrogant to me.

---

Those BC Libs may as well savour the possibility of victory now, because even if Griffiths pulls off a win on Wednesday, he's going to get his clock cleaned in the general in May.

I think it's quite likely that we will have a reverse of the outcome in the last general election - with the NDP taking Burrard and the Liberals taking Fairview. In other words, a wash.

[ 27 October 2008: Message edited by: ghoris ]

quote:

---

Those BC Libs may as well savour the possibility of victory now, because even if Griffiths pulls off a win on Wednesday, he's going to get his clock cleaned in the general in May.

---

But I am far less concerned about your young urban professional feelings, your pocketbook, or the propensity of your well-to-do neighbours and friends to vote for rightwing and reactionary parties.

Consider that the average household income in Fairview is $62,337, while it is $48,910 in Burrard. Fairview has more owner-occupiers (37%) than Burrard (25%). (You know how those evil yuppies love lording their mortgages over everyone.) The homes in Fairview are bigger, too, 4.4 rooms on average compared to 3.5 in Burrard.

And horror of horrors, Fairview has tons of yuppies! The top 8 occupations are clerical; professionals in sciences; teachers and professors; professionals in business; judges, lawyers, psychologists and social workers; specialist managers, professionals in art and culture; and technical employees in art and culture. (By comparison, Burrard's top 8 are clerical; professionals in sciences; sales and services; specialist managers; professionals in business; professionals in art and culture; other managers; admin and regulatory.)

How could a seat like Fairview, which by your logic is chock-full of evil rich yuppie assholes who will only ever vote Liberal, possibly elect an NDP MLA, while the poor denizens of Burrard were stuck with a Liberal?

Maybe the problem is that the NDP doesn't even bother to campaign outside of the Burrard-Davie-Robson-Denman quadrangle. Maybe the problem is that some people in the NDP have openly disdainful attitudes of people who live in Yaletown and Coal Harbour (see above). Maybe the problem is that the NDP decided to run a boring retread candidate in 2005. No, it must be that the evil rich yuppies who live in Yaletown will never ever consider voting NDP, unlike the noble and good (and even richer) yuppies of Fairview.

I'm actually not that personally offended by your attitude. I am annoyed that some people have apparently learned nothing from the 2005 debacle in Vancouver-Burrard, and continue to have this short-sighted attitude that Yaletown and Coal Harbour should be written off for all time.

[ 29 October 2008: Message edited by: ghoris ]

I don't know how this plays out in terms of the difference in the NDP vote in Fairview and Burrard.

[ 29 October 2008: Message edited by: Lord Palmerston ]

[ 29 October 2008: Message edited by: janfromthebruce ]

The last time a BC government won a by-election was almost 27 years ago in 1981. And 15 years before that in 1966.

quote:

---

The Greens are in low single digits in both!

---

Not surprising. I've always considered the BC Green Party to be a bit of a parking vote. I think their hardcore support, the people that will come out and vote in a by-election, will be less than 10%. Hopefully this is a sign that former disgruntled NDP voters who went Green in 2001 have now drifted back to the NDP.

In Burrard the Greens are currently in a neck-and-neck race for third with the fringe BC Conservative Party. Herbert has opened up about a 300-vote lead with a little under 25% of the votes counted. In Fairview, the Liberals are now in the lead.

[ 29 October 2008: Message edited by: ghoris ]

I'll bet when it comes back up the Liberals win.

Anybody here see Bananas?

quote:

---

VANCOUVER (NEWS1130) - Around 100,000 voters in Vancouver were eligible to vote today in two Provincial byelections. Polls have now closed.

The leaders in early voting: (numbers are unofficial)

New Democrat Herbert Spencer leads with 2428 votes in Vancouver Burrard compared to Liberal Arthur Griffiths' 1321 votes.

In Vancouver-Fairview Jenn McGinn of the NDP has 4049 votes, while Liberal candidate Dr. Margaret MacDiarmid has just over 3500 votes with 100 polls reporting.

---

Those both look like wins to me!

[ 29 October 2008: Message edited by: ghoris ]

This sucks big time.

[ 29 October 2008: Message edited by: asterix ]

Jane Sterk seems set to bomb just like Adriane Carr when she stupidly ran in the Surrey-Panorama Ridge byelection six months before the 2005 election and got a derisory 6% of the vote.

quote:

---

Its also nice to see the BC Green party get totally humiliated. At what point do the networks decide that its time to uninvite the Green leader from any leader's debate - they have never even come close to winning a seat and in these byelections they are barely ahead of the Marijuana Party.

---

I don't disagree but look at all the gnashing of teeth and rending of garments that happened in the federal arena over this issue.

The BC leaders debates have always had at least three participants for a number of years. I think the 1996 debate might have even had four - I think both Gordon Wilson and the then-leader of BC Reform (I think it was Jack Weisgerber) participated along with Campbell and Clark.

For whatever reason, in Canada we tend to shirk away from one-on-one leader's debates, even if the third party is basically a fringe party that has no sitting members, and no realistic prospect of winning significant support (eg the New Brunswick NDP, the Manitoba Liberals, the Saskatchewan Liberals, the PEI NDP).

[ 29 October 2008: Message edited by: ghoris ]

New Democrat Herbert Spencer leads with 5700 votes in Vancouver Burrard compared to Liberal Arthur Griffiths' 4127 votes.

quote:

---

(eg the New Brunswick NDP, the Manitoba Liberals, the Saskatchewan Liberals, the PEI NDP).

---

I don't think Carole James' "I'll axe the tax but keep the tax cuts" will be seen as very credible.

Anyway, update
New Democrat Herbert Spencer leads with 5700 votes in Vancouver Burrard compared to Liberal Arthur Griffiths' 4127 votes.

quote:

---

The leaders in early voting: (numbers are unofficial, courtesy of Canadian Press)

New Democrat Herbert Spencer leads with 5700 votes in Vancouver Burrard compared to Liberal Arthur Griffiths' 4127 votes.

In Vancouver-Fairview Jenn McGinn of the NDP has 4488 votes, while Liberal candidate Dr. Margaret MacDiarmid has just over 3985 votes.

---

Bad nite for Gordo

http://www.straight.com/article-168709/bad-night-gordo-jenn-mcginn-opens-wider-lead-vancouverfairview

quote:

---

Originally posted by Adam T:
[QB]I think how the carbon tax plays out remains to be seen.

I don't think Carole James' "I'll axe the tax but keep the tax cuts" will be seen as very credible.

Anyway, update
New Democrat Herbert Spencer leads with 5700 votes in Vancouver Burrard compared to Liberal Arthur Griffiths' 4127 votes.

In Vancouver-Fairview Jenn McGinn of the NDP has 4488 votes, while Liberal candidate Dr. Margaret MacDiarmid has just over 3985 votes.[/Q]

---

It's a wrap.

Like the environment is s big issue with voters.

I think that with a strong candidate and some real effort, Vancouver-False Creek could even be in play for the NDP in May, especially if Campbell continues his downward spiral in the polls.

[ 29 October 2008: Message edited by: ghoris ]

quote:

---

Originally posted by Stockholm:

Each of those parties have actually won seats at various times. If they include the Green leader in a leaders debate this time, it will be the third time in a row that they get included despite never winning a single seat - EVER. Enough is enough. I notice that the BC Conservative Party ran in both byelections and got only slightly fewer votes than the Greens - why not invite their leader to the next debate and remind dissaffected rightwing people that they have an alternative to the BC Liberals!

---

Again, I don't disagree, but the trend in B.C. in the last few decades has been to err on the side of including more parties as opposed to just the two contenders for government. You mention the BC Conservative Party - if I recall correctly, the leader of the previous incarnation (then known as 'Unity BC') did participate in the leader's debate in 2001 but it didn't help them much as they collected a pitiful 3% of the vote. They have since gone through many leadership changes and upheavals - I suspect the reason they weren't invited back in 2005 was because, for lack of a better term, the party simply did not have its shit together. Running only one candidate (the leader) certainly didn't help matters.

Again, for whatever reason in Canada we cling to this notion that we have a multi-party system in every province, even in cases where it's for all intents and purposes a two-party system (eg B.C., Saskatchewan, Manitoba, New Brunswick, PEI, Newfoundland) or even a one-party system (Alberta). I for one would not be surprised if the 2009 leaders debate included the Liberals, the NDP, the Greens and the Conservatives.

[ 30 October 2008: Message edited by: ghoris ]

quote:

---

Originally posted by ghoris:
I think that with a strong candidate and some real effort, Vancouver-False Creek could even be in play for the NDP in May, especially if Campbell continues his downward spiral in the polls.

---

You're usually a pretty reasonable analyst, but I think that you may be stretching it a bit. Gordo's Point-Grey seat would likely be lost first before that were to happen and we would also be in government.

More importantly, don't forget that voter turnout for both seats was in the low 20's range, the lowest I've ever seen. Global BC at 5 pm reported that the North False Creek/Yaletown poll stations were deserted all day long and it didn't look good for the Libs.

As for opinion polls, I haven't seen a Mustel poll for almost 5 months. Where are they?

[ 30 October 2008: Message edited by: Vansterdam Kid ]

[ 30 October 2008: Message edited by: ghoris ]

http://bc2009.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/vancouver-burrard.gif