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Author Topic: Russian election Sunday
Wilf Day
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posted 04 December 2003 03:24 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Russia might elect a Social Democrat when it goes to the polls Sunday to elect 450 members of their Parliament (Duma), 225 from single seats and 225 by regional lists under the semi-proportional "parallel system" in which the lists do not compensate parties under-represented in the single seats.

For the list seats they have a 5% national threshold, which only 5 parties are likely to reach.

A news report noted September 25 that the Social-Democratic Party of Russia (SDPR) will not appear on the party-list ballot this December but will put forward candidates in 34 of Russia's 225 single-mandate districts, following a vote at a 19 September party congress. [In fact they have nominated 35.]

Party leader and former USSR President Mikhail Gorbachev advocated nominating a party list as well as candidates in the single-mandate districts, but party chairman and long-time Samara Oblast Governor (since 1991) Konstantin Titov argued that the SDPR should not exhaust its resources on the party-list campaign. The delegates voted 319-271 in favor of Titov's position, "Kommersant" reported on 20 September.

Choosing not to participate in the party-list vote probably spared the SDPR some embarrassment. Numerous parties describing themselves as center-left or social-democratic have tried and failed to clear the 5 percent threshold in previous Duma elections.

As for the single-mandate district races, Titov announced that the SDPR will try to negotiate cooperation agreements with other parties, including Unified Russia, Yabloko, and the Party of Life, "Vremya novostei" reported on 22 September.

Popular left-leaning economist and State Duma Deputy Sergei Glazyev assembled his parliamentary elections vehicle in September by drawing a group of second-tier opposition-minded politicians into a new electoral bloc called Homeland, with co-leader Dmitry Rogozin. Homeland is widely seen as a Kremlin project to attract part of the Communist vote, although Glazyev had been elected as a Communist.

The Social Democratic Party of Russia, SDPR, was represented as a "Guest Party" at the Council of the Socialist International in Rome, 20-21 January 2003, and the SI Committee for Central and Eastern Europe in Sofia, Bulgaria, 14-15 June, and the Council of the Socialist International in Rome, June 20-21.

Attending were Viktor Mironenko, Secretary and coordinator of the Social-Democratic Party (and one-time First Secretary of the Young Communist League, a long-time Gorbachev fan. In 1999 he was executive director of an international organization called Youth for World Culture and Democracy. Also attending was Elena Medvedkova.

At the recent 22nd Congress of the Socialist Iinternational in São Paulo, 27-29 October, it had been admitted as a "Consultative Party" represented by Samara Governor Konstantin Titov, Viktor Mironenko and Elena Medvedkova again, plus Julia Dotsenko and Valerij Gurov.

If someone can surf in Russian they might be able to get more information.


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
clearview
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posted 04 December 2003 07:49 PM      Profile for clearview     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Here's and article by Boris Kagarlitsky if anyone is interested.

quote:
Foreigners don't understand a thing about Russian politics. They're always asking about platforms and ideology, whereas Russians are more interested in how many seats in parliament will go to the oil majors, the metals lobby or the financial sector. On the party lists from the Union of Right Forces to the Communist Party you'll find all the major corporations represented: oil companies like Yukos, LUKoil, TNK, Sibneft, Neftyanoi and Nafta-Moskva; aluminum giants like Base Element, RusAl, SUAL and Sibirsky Aluminum; as well as Unified Energy Systems, Norilsk Nickel, Alfa Bank and scores of lesser-known companies.

Russia is the most bourgeois of the European democracies. But of all the bourgeois elites, ours is the most straightforward. Why bother buying off parties or State Duma deputies when you can simply buy seats in parliament? Why plan long-term strategy when you can write your own laws? Then again, the laws are implemented not by big business but by the bureaucrats, that other bastion of privilege in today's Russia. The bureaucracy never loses sight of its own interests, and it will not be satisfied just doing someone else's bidding. On the United Russia party list alone, there are more than 70 high-ranking government officials. The whole point of parliamentary democracy is to provide for the coordination of interests -- to allow bureaucrats and businessmen to compromise. But in fact the hordes of representatives of big business and the bureaucracy in parliament attest to the weakness of Russia's ruling classes. They are insecure, and most importantly they are not united. No one can be trusted.



From: Toronto | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 08 December 2003 08:50 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Russia has a new left opposition party. But it's still a bit of a mystery.


quote:
It was founded less than four months ago by diminutive economist Sergei Glazyev, a Communist deputy . . . For the voter, the campaign does not appear to be the usual bluster. Glazyev's earnest demeanor and the reputation he has built over the past decade as one of the nation's most prominent economists all give him weight.

Take one TV ad from the Homeland campaign: Glazyev stands before a full lecture hall, behind him on a blackboard are pie charts splitting up the nation's wealth. Glazyev proposes raising taxes on natural resource owners and spreading their wealth back to pensioners and government workers.

The bloc's slogans include "Return the wealth of the nation to the people!" and "For social justice!"

"Now the fear is that Glazyev could become a serious presidential candidate from the left," said Andrei Piontkovsky, an independent political analyst. "The Kremlin's backing via its administrative resource is going to be key in whether it gets in or not."

"In the last few days, the Kremlin has been changing its relations to Glazyev," said Stanislav Belkovsky, head of the Council for National Strategy, a think tank that published a controversial report predicting a "creeping coup" by the oligarchs last summer. "It turns out he has presidential ambitions that he has not agreed upon with the Kremlin."

He said he would form an anti-Kremlin patriotic alliance with the Communists if his bloc gets in.

That's something the Kremlin could regret. "If Homeland gets in, which looks likely, one has to wonder whether with all the Kremlin's support, over time, this will be a Frankenstein that comes back to haunt them," said Michael McFaul, a political science professor at Stanford University who specializes in Russian elections. "They will inadvertently have created a problem for themselves in the long run."

Glazyev on Thursday appeared to recognize waning support from the powers-that-be. "Channel One has stopped showing us all this week. We're not on TV anymore," he said.



From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 08 December 2003 10:55 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Here's a biography of Sergei Glazev: Chief Economist For The Opposition.

quote:
In 1999, Glazev hitched his wagon to the only party that absolutely could not fail to clear the 5 percent threshold: the KPRF (Communist Party). It was a stunning move for an economist whose associates from the 1980s tended to support parties in the "democratic" camp. Yet the views of Glazev and KPRF leaders were less far apart than they appeared. Glazev had long advocated more state intervention in the economy, while the KPRF leaders had already given up most elements of socialist ideology. Glazev became the KPRF's No. 3 candidate and drafted the economic sections of the party's election platform, which was more market-oriented than the 1995 version had been.

The KPRF provided a rock-solid guarantee that Glazev would gain a seat in the new Duma. What did the Communist leaders get out of the deal? Glazev's credentials as an economist made the party look more respectable. In addition, the KPRF adopted the Soviet tradition of showcasing well-known non-Communists as allies, if not formal members, of the Communist Party. The presence of a big name who is not a party member underscores that the KPRF has a broad base of support.



From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 08 December 2003 11:34 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Here are the complete results of all 450 seats, click on ELECTION RESULTS.

Although the Social Democrats won no seats, and the Communists won only 51, the other left groups won 59, not counting any leftists elected in single-member seats as independents (usually there are some): Glazyev's Rodina bloc 37, Raikov's People's Party 16, Seleznev's Rebirth bloc 3, Agrarians 3.

The centrist "party of power" (United Russia) has 221 seats, almost a clear majority. Some of the 67 independents and 4 single-member parties will certainly join it, giving post-communist Russia its first majority government.

Some of the "People's Party" are only centre-left independents supported by United Russia. However, they also include people like Anatoly Ivanov, Vice-President of the All-Russian Confederation of Labor (VKT), who was re-elected with the tacit support of the Communist Party.

The nationalist-populist Zhirinovsky has 37 seats, the liberal Yabloko 4, and the Thatcherite SPS 3. The other 4 seats will be run again, since the ballot option "against all" got more votes than any candidate in those seats.

[ 16 December 2003: Message edited by: Wilfred Day ]


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 09 December 2003 12:44 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Here is an intelligent comment in the St. Petersburg Times.

quote:
. . .the upside of Homeland's success for the Kremlin has been exaggerated. The bloc could turn into a center of opposition more serious than the theatrical LDPR and tougher than the house-broken Communist Party. Nor can Putin relish the prospect of squaring off in the presidential election against the young, decisive populist Glazyev instead of his familiar sparring partner, Gennady Zyuganov.

From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 05 January 2004 02:03 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
As I was saying before the holidays, Sergei Glazyev's new party is interesting. He reminds me of a Russian Jim Stanford.

Now Oleg Shein agrees with me. Astrakhan's Duma deputy since 1999 was just re-elected. Remarkably, in a district 21% Turkic Muslim, he is Jewish.

Astrakhan, at the mouth of the Volga in southern Russia, had been a stronghold for the Communist Party. Many of the same people still ran the region.

Oleg Shein helped form a new union, opposed to the old "company unions" of the Communists. In 1996, when he was only 24, he became a Co-Chairman of The Alliance of Workers' Unions "Defense," and was elected a member of the Astrakhan Regional Parliament (Duma). As a member of the regional parliament, he helped many Astrakhan residents. "Defence" got a high reputation in the city.

In May 5, 1999 about 130 workers-members of the union "Defense" from the Plant of Concrete Constructions blocked the central avenue. They had not had their wages since February 1998. "Many of our comrades have been attacked. My closest friend and comrade, Oleg Maksakov, was shut in the back and killed, while investigating the financial crimes of "Promstroi" directors. Not surprisingly, the police never found the murderers."

In late 1999 Oleg Shein won a seat in the Russian Duma as an independent candidate. He became quite a hero to western leftists who called him the only real socialist in the Duma. On May 17, 2000, Shein led about 300,000 workers across Russia participating in protests against the government's proposal to introduce a draconian new Labor Code. The new legislation removes workers' rights held for decades, rendering trade unions even more impotent and enforcing, among other things, a 56 hour working week. The Trots alternated between calling him a hero and a traitor.

In the recent election Shein was re-elected. Although he ran as an independent, when the Duma sat last week he joined Sergei Glazyev's new left Rodina bloc. A traitor now, I guess.

In Astrakhan, 398,461 voters voted for their choice of party (first ballot) and 359,772 voters also voted for a local deputy (second ballot).

Shein, as an independent, got 142,654 votes.

On the party ballot, Rodina got 46,314 votes, but it ran no local candidate. So those were the core of Shein's voters.

The Communist standing against Shein got only 39,687 votes, although the Communist Party got 65,660. So 25,973 of Shein's voters thought of him as an independent Communist.

The "Pensioners and Social Justice" party got 8,904 votes, which must have been Shein voters.

The left-wing Agrarian party, often allied with the Communists, got 14,690 party votes, but only 7,032 voted for the local Agrarian. That leaves 7,658 for Shein.

The small centre-left Peoples Party got 6,586 votes, but only 3,264 for their local woman, leaving 3,322 for Shein.

The Liberal-democratic party Yabloko got 10,437 votes, and the conservative-liberal party SPS got 9,583, but they ran no local candidates. Those 20,020 voters may have voted mostly for Shein, as the leading anti-government candidate. Even if they all did, that leaves 30,463 Shein voters who must have voted for minor parties on the party ballot. So he had wide appeal.

One minor party was Zhirinovsky's. He is a right-wing nationalist and populist. But his party got 53,786 votes in Astrakhan, although only 9,158 of them voted for Zhirinovksy's local man. Of the other 44,628, I would expect that as many as 7,221 of them used the Russian "none of the above" option, voting "against all" the local candidates. Still, that leaves 37,407, many of whom must have voted for Shein. (That's sort of like cheering for both Stockwell Day and Svend Robinson.)

On the party ballot, Putin's United Russia got 126,264 votes, less than Shein's total.

Running second for local deputy was Sergei Anatolevich Bozhenov, another independent, with 90,244 votes. He was one of the national leaders of a small party which formed a tactical alliance with Putin's "United Russia" party to promote joint candidates in some single-mandate districts. However, someone screwed up, since United Russia ran a local candidate too, a fellow named Ogul (Turkish-sounding name) who got 38,409 votes. Still, their total 128,653 would not have been enough to beat Shein.

Another interesting local candidate was Anver Ibragimovich Almayev, leader of a Tatar organization in the Astrakhan region, a deputy in the regional legislative assembly since 1999. He ran for the little known "Electoral Bloc Great Russia – Eurasian Union" and got 16,541 votes, although only 4,191 of them supported that party on the party ballot.

Note that there must be about 75,000 Muslim voters in Astrakhan, many of whom must have voted for the Jew Oleg Shein. Excellent.

[ 05 January 2004: Message edited by: Wilfred Day ]


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
skdadl
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posted 05 January 2004 09:15 AM      Profile for skdadl     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
This is fascinating, Wilfred -- thank you for these summaries.

Since Gorby, I have kept up almost not at all with what has been going on in Russia -- all I know now I've learned from you. Will keep following.


From: gone | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 14 January 2004 03:49 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Russia is now discovering the joys of majority government:

Opposition MPs are nobodies, debate in the House gives way to battles behind closed doors, the House becomes a reliable tool for the prime minister, and all quality control mechanisms on legislation have been dismantled.

quote:
United Russia's deputies will play all the major roles; the rest of the deputies are nothing more than extras. . . The new majority is more than happy to follow the Kremlin's orders as it divides the spoils, but the faction is far from indivisible. Political parties, which clashed on the floor of the Duma, have given way to the parties of governors and special interests who will clash behind closed doors. The Kremlin clans who pull the Duma's strings are also far from unified. The battle for leadership posts in the new Duma promises to be a serious one, and the outcome will become clear when the Duma convenes later this week. It is already obvious, however, that while it won the battle on Dec. 7, the Kremlin, and society as a whole, have lost the war. The fourth Duma will be a reliable tool for the Kremlin, but the quality of the legislation it passes is certain to decline now that all quality control mechanisms have been dismantled. Mistakes are inevitable, and we're all going to pay the price.

From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged

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