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TORONTO — A trio of the Liberal Party's pre-eminent mechanics have joined the leadership camp of Toronto MP Michael Ignatieff, suggesting that a major shift is under way in the party's plate tectonics.

With the starting gun just sounded on the race to replace Stéphane Dion as leader, the names of Marc-André Blanchard, considered Quebec Premier Jean Charest's Mr. Fix-It; Don Guy, 2007 campaign director for Ontario's Dalton McGuinty; and Steven MacKinnon, chief of staff to former New Brunswick premier Frank McKenna, have appeared on the roster of Ignatieff supporters.

The three were not involved in the 2006 leadership campaign, won by Mr. Dion with Mr. Ignatieff and Toronto MP Bob Rae placing second and third respectively.

Mr. Ignatieff's intention to run again for the leadership is not in doubt. But Mr. Rae, the former Ontario NDP premier, has expressed some hesitation to close friends about whether he will enter the campaign.

If he chooses not to, the race will almost certainly turn into a cakewalk for Mr. Ignatieff.

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Globe and Mail

Edited thread title to remove reference to Rae's "doubts" about running - info below suggests that was disinfo from one of the other leadership camps.

[ 02 November 2008: Message edited by: robbie_dee ]

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During the election campaign, many wondered how the Liberal Party would have fared if it had been led by Michael Ignatieff. My guess — and everybody else's — is the party would have been a formidable rival to the Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois. It is not a coincidence that the vast majority of Quebec delegates at the 2006 leadership convention were supporters of Mr. Ignatieff.

Among the potential contenders to succeed Stéphane Dion, Mr. Ignatieff would still be the favourite of Quebec Liberals, even in the unlikely event that Quebeckers such as Martin Cauchon and Denis Coderre — who both nurture leadership ambitions — were in the race. (Justin Trudeau said he wouldn't run, a sensible decision since he is widely considered, at least in Quebec, to be a lightweight.) After having had three leaders from Quebec in a row, the last one being a francophone, the Liberals will surely want an anglophone from another province. Alternating between francophones and anglophones is still the Liberal Party's unwritten rule.

In any case, Mr. Cauchon, a competent cabinet minister under Jean Chrétien, would not be a shoo-in in Quebec because he lacks charisma. And Mr. Coderre would clearly be punching above his weight class if he viewed himself as a future prime minister. Local Liberals enjoy his combative zeal and down-home populist style in partisan meetings, but he wouldn't be taken seriously.

Mr. Ignatieff, on the other hand, has many assets when it comes to winning Quebec voters: flawless, elegant French, and dark, intense good looks that somewhat resemble those of Lucien Bouchard, the beloved icon of the 1990s. Mr. Ignatieff is a public intellectual rather than a straightforward academic, and Quebeckers love public intellectuals — people who are cultured, at ease with ideas and can philosophize on various themes.

More important, Mr. Ignatieff is popular among the nationalists because he was the first to embrace the notion of Quebec as a nation. This was a skewed view — there's certainly a French-Canadian nation, but Quebec as a province is not a nation — but it worked, and now that the idea has been co-opted by Stephen Harper and accepted by large segments of the political class, Mr. Ignatieff can look like a precursor.

By the time the Liberals choose a new leader, Mr. Ignatieff's initial stand in favour of the war in Iraq will have been forgotten and forgiven, especially if Barack Obama is elected president.

The Obama factor might play in the Liberal leadership race. Even though Mr. Ignatieff is 14 years older than Mr. Obama, he's the only Liberal contender (so far) who can generate a bit of excitement: He, too, comes from outside the box, and he's not a typical politician.

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I particular love the part at the beginning where she suggests that she knows what "everyone else" is thinking.

More substantively, if Harper was not successful in turning the "Quebec as a nation" vote into seats, what makes her think that Igatieff will be able to (when he can claim less of the credit than Harper for it)?

Moreover, Ignatieff is hardly outside the box -- he's the son of a diplomat, not the son of a single mother. The only thing he has in common with Obama is Harvard; they didn't even agree on Iraq.

As for his fluency, I will agree: Iggy sounds equally arrogant in both official languages.

[ 31 October 2008: Message edited by: Scott Piatkowski ]

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Originally posted by Stockholm:
I find that Ignatieff reminds me of some weird combination of Count Dracula and Thurston Howell III.

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[ 31 October 2008: Message edited by: Michelle ]

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Originally posted by Peter Rapsey:
I would like to see Liberals trying to get Brian Tobin to run.

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He's declined the invitation

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Originally posted by Michelle:

[ 31 October 2008: Message edited by: Michelle ]

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Originally posted by 500_Apples:
I would like John Manley as leader of the Liberal Party. He's very sane and level-headed, qualities I look for in a politician.

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Originally posted by Stockholm:
I find that Ignatieff reminds me of some weird combination of Count Dracula and Thurston Howell III.

Lysiane Gagnon is completely wrong when she says that Quebec delegates massively favoured Iggy at the liberal leadership convention. As i recall, it was almost a three way split between Igantieff, Rae and dion in Quebec with Kennedy getting almost nothing.

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I'd like to be wrong, because I'd like to see the NDP campaign against Rae and finally drive the stake through his legacy, but Iggy should present opportunities to calf off the left-lib faction he so obviously despises. If the Liberals elect Iggy and move right to fill the vacuum formerly occupied by the assimilated PCs, their left flank may be more restless than ever.

[ 31 October 2008: Message edited by: JeffWells ]

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OTTAWA–Bob Rae will enter the race to become Liberal leader.

Rae confirmed today he will officially declare his candidacy after party officials meet next weekend to set a time and place for the leadership convention as well as define spending rules and limits.

The former NDP premier of Ontario told the Toronto Star he spoke with outgoing Liberal leader Stéphane Dion today to let him know he would be running to replace him.

He also gave up his duties as foreign affairs critic.

Rae said he had not planned to announce his candidacy in stages but wanted to counter a newspaper report that he has been suggesting to friends he will not run.

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ETA: Trinity Bellwoods Guy: Lighten up man!
Here's a whole website of people who look like thier pets. M&F enjoy!

[ 31 October 2008: Message edited by: Mojoroad1 ]

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Rae said he had not planned to announce his candidacy in stages but wanted to counter a newspaper report that he has been suggesting to friends he will not run.

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Originally posted by JeffWells:
If Rae really is having reservations he has more political sense than I'd credited him.

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Originally posted by TrinityBellwoodsGuy:
Maybe it is just me, but I wonder what people would say if someone posted a picture of a woman and, say, a dog and pointed out the similarities between them.

Just wondering.

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Originally posted by 500_Apples:
I would like John Manley as leader of the Liberal Party. He's very sane and level-headed, qualities I look for in a politician.

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Bobby's in the ring after all...I guess he couldn't stand the thought of his arch nemesis Count Iggy Howell the III being coronated.

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Did anybody see Bob Rae's appearance on Mike Duffy Live today? It was classic Rae arrogance, all full of outrage about the "smear" that he wasn't running, massive hubris in declaring that he will win this time, practially bragging about his disastrous stint as Ontario Premier ("I've got a record and I'm proud of my record!!!"), etc.

Just as in the 2006 leadership, Rae's "substance" to date is a bunch of brain-dead platitudes - "we need to focus on the economy" "I want to reorganize the party" "we have to come together around progressiv values" - which essentially boil down to: "How can you not vote for me with all my experience and exceptional qualifications? My resume is my platform!!!"

I usually don't get personal in politics but I really hate Rae with a passion. He is sure to go down in flames yet again (Harper broke through in Fortress Ontario this time and there is no way the Grits will risk losing their Metro Toronto base with Rae) and I will savour every last moment

[ 31 October 2008: Message edited by: West Coast Lefty ]

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"I've got a record and I'm proud of my record!!!")

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And Little potty-mouth bobby rae was so proud if his record in power as the NDP premier and the party that put him there, that he spent this past election bashing that same party bash.

Bob Rae has no doubts, he is running. My Guess is that Liberals will be running from Rae. The LPC can't afford to lose any more seats in Ontario.

The CPC strategy was to say "Bob Rae Economics" in the last campaign in an attempt to kill two birds with one stone. The LPC and the NDP.

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I see people having fun with Ignatieff. When I first saw him, I thought he looked like the guy in the movie Psycho.

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No, that would be Dalton McGuinty.

On one hand, I think Rae is a sellout. I think that Rae had the opportunity to be really gutsy and bring in some massive changes during the recession, but instead, he chose the easy way out and turned to Bay st. to bail the province out.

(And, if there had been a Tory government in 1990, wouldn't it have been led by....Mike Harris?)

But getting back to Rae, strange as it may seem I think last time was his best shot, notwithstanding his relative 'newness' to the party and his lack of a Commons seat. I have always suspected that had Rae and Ignatieff faced off on the final ballot, Rae would have scooped more of the Dion/Kennedy votes than Ignatieff. (I recall my dad being absolutely convinced from early in the campaign that Rae was going to win so long as he made it to the final ballot, which of course didn't happen.)

It's way too early to start writing people off, of course, but I think Rae's odds are a lot longer this time. Rightly or wrongly, Rae will be perceived as the 'left' candidate and right now a lot of Liberals are convinced that they tanked this election because they moved 'too far left'. With the NDP and Greens refusing to shrivel up and die, there seems to be a real appetite in the Liberal party to move the party 'back to the centre' (at least, what the Liberals consider centre, which is really centre-right) and run as prudent economic managers in contrast with Harper, which means going with a 'business' or 'Blue' Liberal as leader. Ignatieff has no real ties to Bay Street or the 'business' wing of the party, but the 'Blue' Liberal mantle rests more easily on his shoulders than anyone else, except perhaps Manley. If Manley gets in, I think that's when things will start to get interesting.

Leblanc is francophone but no doubt there will be a desire to have at least a token Quebec candidate in the race. Everyone keeps talking about Martin Cauchon as a possible Quebecois candidate. Frankly I've never understood why this guy is always talked about as a potential leader. He must have a lot of support in the backrooms of the Quebec Liberal party because his profile among the public is pretty much zero. The guy was a very junior minister during Chretien's second term and the first half of the third term, only getting bumped up to Justice and Quebec lieutenant (seemingly out of the blue) in the dying days of the regime. Of course he was then unceremoniously dumped by Martin.

I think more low-profile candidates like Cauchon or Dominic Leblanc will have more difficulty in this race if, as it appears, it will be a shortened campaign - a lot fewer town halls across the country, a lot less 'face time' before Liberals and the media. Those who have a high media profile and organizations already in place (Ignatieff, Rae) will have a huge advantage.

[ 01 November 2008: Message edited by: ghoris ]

[ 01 November 2008: Message edited by: robbie_dee ]

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I usually don't get personal in politics but I really hate Rae with a passion.

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West Coast Lefty, never let anyone get that far in your head. People you hate, own you.

I am certainly no fan of Benedict Rae. However, I wish him well in this endeavor. I think he and the Liberals deserve each other.

I have his measure.

So far, things are progressing nicely. I think there's only one way out for the Liberals, but they are prisoners of their own (ack, I hate to use this word) narrative.

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Originally posted by aka Mycroft:

He's declined the invitation

Tobin firmly rules out run at Liberal leadership

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Yeah, I guess the Liberals like to alternate between anglophone and francophone leaders. However, maybe with Iggy Thumbscrews they'll break that tradition and go with an American.

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The next Liberal saviour!
ETA: Gives a whole new meaning to "Key Fixers Line up Behind Iggy"

[ 02 November 2008: Message edited by: Mojoroad1 ]

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Originally posted by Mojoroad1:
If the Libs are going to nominate an American Iggy I say go with Iggy Pop! The next Liberal saviour!
ETA: Gives a whole new meaning to "Key Fixers Line up Behind Iggy"

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But I also haven't forgotten that nasty business in my old riding of Etobicoke Lakeshore when as the story goes, the Liberal riding association was physically locked out of their own nomination as to secure a last-second acclamation for Ignatieff.

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The melodrama began Friday when the sitting Etobicoke-Lakeshore MP, Minister of State Jean Augustine, agreed to step aside for Mr. Ignatieff. Ron Chyczij, president of the Liberal riding association, was told late Friday that anyone interested in the nomination had until 5 p.m. Saturday to file papers.

But when he tried to deliver his nomination papers Saturday, the doors to the Liberal office were locked and those inside wouldn't respond to his knocks on the door or phone calls. He finally slipped the papers under the door.

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http://tinyurl.com/5m3mfq

Not much to pick from as far as that goes.

At least Rae's french is marginally better. Iggy's is downright ugly.

[ 02 November 2008: Message edited by: triciamarie ]

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Originally posted by adma:
FYI: Michael Ignatieff: b. May 12, 1947
James Osterberg: b. April 21, 1947

Iggy Pop's three weeks older!

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LOL...but what about his Stooges?

Seriously,

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Originally posted by Stockholm:
Francophones I know say that Iggy's French is actually a lot better than Rae's - but that Harper and Layton are both better in French now than either of them.

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Originally posted by robbie_dee:
Manley is out. With McKenna also taking a pass, this seems to clear the path on the center-right for Iggy. I think he may win it on the first ballot.

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Originally posted by ghoris:

Hard to see how he loses at this point.

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I agree. There's likely to be a "screw it, let's go with Iggy" factor that wasn't there two years ago, because fewer delegates will be prepared to take another flier on the lesser of three evils.