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Author Topic: open letter to NDP members of Saanich Gulf Islands
Edward P
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posted 23 September 2008 10:53 AM      Profile for Edward P     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Hello
In light of recent events regarding Julian's resignation, I would beg you, the campigners of Saanich Gulf Islands, to displace all your efforts and resources to defeating Keith Martin in Esqualmat Juan de Fuca. The vote difference between Randall Garrison and Keith was less than 3% in the previous election, while in Saanich gulf islands, Lunn sailed to an easy victoria in light of the vote split that occured between the NDP, Liberals and Green. Do all of Vancouver Island and Canada a favour, concentrate on defeating Keith and let Briony and the Liberals take on Lunn. Work on defeating two mean, one dedicated to private health care, one dedicated to allowing tankers into our coastal waters, instead of dividing your resources and failing to eliminate either of them.
Help us take both those conservatives down!

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Stockholm
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posted 23 September 2008 11:14 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Here! here! and since the NDP candidate in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca is Jennifer Burgis who ran for the NDP in Saanich-Gulf Islands in both 2004 and 2006 - this should be an easy transition for people to make.
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janfromthebruce
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posted 23 September 2008 01:57 PM      Profile for janfromthebruce     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
That shoutout should be going to the campaign team for Julien and via the NDP riding association in that area.
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Lord Palmerston
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posted 23 September 2008 08:43 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think the Greens may have their best showing in the country in SGI...but not enough to knock off the Tory.
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North Shore
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posted 23 September 2008 08:57 PM      Profile for North Shore     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Maybe we should convince all Liberals and Greens and NDPers to vote NDP in SGI - it'd be pretty embarrassing for Mr.Lunn to come in 2nd to someone who'd resigned from the contest!
From: Victoriahhhh | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
ghoris
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posted 23 September 2008 09:27 PM      Profile for ghoris     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Does West remain on the ballot if he withdraws? The deadline for nominations may have passed but I doubt the ballots have actually been printed.

[ 23 September 2008: Message edited by: ghoris ]


From: Vancouver | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
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posted 23 September 2008 09:38 PM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Edward P:
Hello
In light of recent events regarding Julian's resignation, I would beg you, the campigners of Saanich Gulf Islands, to displace all your efforts and resources to defeating Keith Martin in Esqualmat Juan de Fuca. The vote difference between Randall Garrison and Keith was less than 3% in the previous election, while in Saanich gulf islands, Lunn sailed to an easy victoria in light of the vote split that occured between the NDP, Liberals and Green. Do all of Vancouver Island and Canada a favour, concentrate on defeating Keith and let Briony and the Liberals take on Lunn. Work on defeating two mean, one dedicated to private health care, one dedicated to allowing tankers into our coastal waters, instead of dividing your resources and failing to eliminate either of them.
Help us take both those conservatives down!

Penn doesn't deserve your vote. Her campaign is the one that circulated the "nude swimming" bombshell right as the nominations were closing. She also was been a "Green" until her surprise announcement to seek the Liberal nomination- which Dion ensured. Her campaign has been spreading misinformation about which party runs second in the riding and telling people to vote "strategically" (for her). Vote NDP or vote Andrew Lewis of the Green Party.


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surfdoc
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posted 24 September 2008 06:10 PM      Profile for surfdoc     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Penn has stated that she had nothing to do with raising the incident, and I don't think we should be pushing allegations otherwise.

That she has been a Green Party member in the past should have no bearing on whether she makes a good candidate now. This is no tory with a composter - she co-founded the land conservancy of BC, has served as director of the Raincoast Conservation Foundation, and was co-chair of the Environment Advisory Committee, Islands Trust Saltspring Island Local Trust Committee. She has high public visibility, as she hosted the television show “Enviro/Mental” for three years.


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NorthReport
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posted 24 September 2008 06:45 PM      Profile for NorthReport     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
So for those who might not have been closely following this Saanich Gulf Islands riding, which parties will have cnadidates, and who will their candidates be? Would someone please reprint the parties below with the names of their respective candidates. Are nominations now closed and Thanks.

Cons - ?
Libs - ?
NDP - ?
Grn - ?


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North Shore
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posted 24 September 2008 07:14 PM      Profile for North Shore     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Conservative Party of Canada: Gary Lunn (Incumbent)
Liberal Party of Canada: Briony Penn
Green Party of Canada: Andrew Lewis
New Democratic Party of Canada: (open) I believe that Julian West will show on the ballot, but he has withdrawn his candidacy.

From: Victoriahhhh | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
surfdoc
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posted 24 September 2008 08:05 PM      Profile for surfdoc     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
^ Correct. He has stepped down, but his name will remain on the ballot, according to Elections Canada.
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NorthReport
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posted 24 September 2008 08:06 PM      Profile for NorthReport     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Thanks for that clear information.
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NorthReport
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posted 24 September 2008 08:31 PM      Profile for NorthReport     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by surfdoc:
Penn has stated that she had nothing to do with raising the incident, and I don't think we should be pushing allegations otherwise.

That she has been a Green Party member in the past should have no bearing on whether she makes a good candidate now. This is no tory with a composter - she co-founded the land conservancy of BC, has served as director of the Raincoast Conservation Foundation, and was co-chair of the Environment Advisory Committee, Islands Trust Saltspring Island Local Trust Committee. She has high public visibility, as she hosted the television show “Enviro/Mental” for three years.


Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
2006 election results
Keith Martin LIB 20761 34.93% X
Randall Garrison NDP 18595 31.29%
Troy DeSouza CON 16327 27.47%

Every single NDP supporter in Saanich Gulf Islands, should vacate their riding, and you can do it via the 'net, or other means of communication if you can't physically leave, and work on ridings where the NDP has a chance to win, such as Esquimalt - Juan de Fuca. In other words I support the premise of the opening post in this thread. NDP supporters should not waste one single second in Saanich Gulf Islands, and shouldn't even waste one second bothering to vote. The NDP is running to win in this election, so NDP ssupporters ought not to be sidetracked by anything that will in any way detract from the overall NDP Canada-wide campaign to install Jack Layton into 24 Sussex Drive, Ottawa. The NDP and its supporters need to get its act together here and focus entirely on its own NDP campaign. Let's be smart about this.

[ 24 September 2008: Message edited by: NorthReport ]


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V. Jara
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posted 25 September 2008 11:20 AM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by surfdoc:
Penn has stated that she had nothing to do with raising the incident, and I don't think we should be pushing allegations otherwise.

That she has been a Green Party member in the past should have no bearing on whether she makes a good candidate now. This is no tory with a composter - she co-founded the land conservancy of BC, has served as director of the Raincoast Conservation Foundation, and was co-chair of the Environment Advisory Committee, Islands Trust Saltspring Island Local Trust Committee. She has high public visibility, as she hosted the television show “Enviro/Mental” for three years.


This is total crap. The newspaper reports on the incident all clearly said that the Liberals were the source of the last minute information. Penn is running for the Liberals isn't she?

Penn's supporters were also behind the big move trying to get Andrew Lewis (of the Greens) not to run I believe, because they didn't want the green vote to be "split."

In other words, Penn's campaign doesn't want the people of SGI to have a choice. Vote Andrew Lewis (Green Party) or NDP.

[ 25 September 2008: Message edited by: V. Jara ]


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surfdoc
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posted 25 September 2008 04:15 PM      Profile for surfdoc     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
^ Why would they vote NDP when the candidate has withdrawn from the race?

Penn stated she had nothing to do with the incident, and I see no reason to doubt her. I do agree that Liberals somewhere raised the incident. Were they SGI Liberal campaign workers? That isn't known.


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kropotkin1951
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posted 25 September 2008 04:45 PM      Profile for kropotkin1951   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by surfdoc:
^ Why would they vote NDP when the candidate has withdrawn from the race?
Because they support the party and a way to be counted as supporting the party.

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surfdoc
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posted 25 September 2008 05:47 PM      Profile for surfdoc     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
^ Voting NDP in the riding, without a candidate, is a sure-fire way to support Lunn. Cut a cheque to the NDP, go volunteer in Esq-JDF, and vote Liberal or Green for SGI. Heck, there are a few weeks left, one could move to another riding if one wanted to vote NDP and actually support the NDP.
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Michelle
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posted 25 September 2008 06:19 PM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Vote Liberal, not Green, in that riding if you want to shun Lunn. If you're going to be strategic, you might as well be smart about it and vote for the one who has a chance of winning.
From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
surfdoc
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posted 25 September 2008 08:22 PM      Profile for surfdoc     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I agree with you Michelle. Even without the NDP, the Greens still don't have a chance to win this riding. I think they may get as high as 25%, (leaving (40% for the Lisb) and hopefully Lunn loses ground as a result of his errors with the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission.

While the Liberals may have been inactive when it comes to the environment, Briony Penn hasn't been. She is a major asset, and hopefully if elected she can bring some changes around within the Liberal Party in regards to views of the environment.


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Pogo
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posted 25 September 2008 09:16 PM      Profile for Pogo   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Vote Liberal, not Green, in that riding if you want to shun Lunn. If you're going to be strategic, you might as well be smart about it and vote for the one who has a chance of winning.[/QUOTE]

As Sean says so well:

quote:
Sorry but I will have to say you don't understand the electoral system, punditry, polls, trends, politics or even time itself if you believe that is the explanation for my opposition.

These sites all use historical data to create the models. I find that offensive on principle-- we voters do get to change our minds and not be bullied into buying the crap that what was close last time is the necessarily the same seats that will be close this time and that those in second last time will be the second place ones with a shot to win now. In fact why don't you do a list of the closest 25 ridings over the last 5 elections. You will find they are not the same ones each time out. In fact the winners are much more stable a group from election to election than the runners up which change order more often-- (there is a simple mathematical reason for this I can explain if you don't get why).

This load of thinly disguised Liberal crap is nothing more than a denial of the fact that the only reason the Cons are even in reach of a majority (one I don't think they will get anyway) is because of a meltdown in Liberal support-- that Liberal party is a rejected party led by a rejected leader with a rejected platform. Don't tell me I don't understand first past the post-- I know it quite well. I also know that there is no reliable relationship between the positions of the parties in the close races from one election to another. There is in the ridings that are not close but those are also the ridings that this or any other electoral manipulation bullshit plan is not going to change.

Put simply these types of plans are known not to make a difference in ridings that are not close and do not have the accurate information to function properly in the ridings that are close. So since they don't really have the means to work why not honour the right you have to vote by making a considered (not lazy) choice between the options you have available choosing the best of those? If people would spend more time looking at the platforms and policies and people to choose what they wanted and less time trying to figure out which party is the best vehicle for a negative vote we would have a government elected based on the positive choices of Canadians not a side-effect of those that were thrown out. What a shitty way to govern or choose our leaders!

And to go further on this first past the post thing you say I know nothing about, I'll also add that I have written about the dynamics of parliament as well which get into the fact that a government reflects the complexion of the opposition as well-- in other words governments govern based on who they are afraid of-- when Chretien got in it was a right wing government and that was in part because they were afraid of the Reform party and the NDP were nonexistent. Martin in time for the last election moved to the left a bit because he was scared of Layton and the NDP. Only having the Cons and one other big fat party does not help -- even on a riding by riding basis. This means that if you strip out the NDP to support the Liberals if they come to power they will consider the NDP in all those ridings not to be a threat and then govern from the right. This is not theoretical-- it has happened.

In this first past the post system political scientists and strategists working for the parties consider growth and party bases that get distorted by this shit you are peddling-- and this is far more important than the $1.75 a voter some people talk about. When you run a good third you are telling the party "invest resources and we might be able to get second or win this" -- when you wipe out that third place to a rump due to strategic voting you rob your preferred party of its base for the future and your seat of the resources to build on the next time out.

Put directly -- you over-simplify the first past the post system to suit the ends you have -- but these are anti-democratic -- trying to push people away from their first choice. You also fail to recognize that political change is a long term thing and the winds of change have an effect on every party. Frankly Harper would be more less right wing than a Liberal government if he was staring down the barrel of a NDP that could thrash him in the next election than if he is looking across at a bunch of weak Liberals afraid to vote lest they have to justify their existence one more time. And this threat does not come just in seats won -- it comes by seeing a party like the NDP with a real social democratic agenda having a base in ridings across this country.

So, yes I see your point but totally reject it. Some say the problem is that mistakes will be made in those close ridings that people don't know who is first and that is true but the plan is not even good in those few ridings where there is a clear order of first second and third.

If the people followed that type of system reliant on the previous election, the NDP would have no seats east of the Ottawa river and no growth anywhere. That's all fine for those who think all the parties are the same except Harper is an asshole. But in a place like Babble you will find that people see these distinctions and notice not only the difference between the Liberals and the Cons which we do recognize (even if on principle we want to refuse to admit it) because that difference is dwarfed by the much greater difference between the NDP and the Liberals.

So yeah I can say sure I'd rather Pratt won and beat Baird than Baird won -- but I only have one vote and I would rather cast that for a party I support than to dignify a sliver of difference between a right-wing Liberal and a Con that may not matter when those parties are going to govern based on the opposition they fear the most. Pratt afraid of Baird is more dangerous than Baird afraid of a New Democrat. This is something forgotten but fundamental to the way politics works. Once you get this dynamic, you will see that there is no point in any strategic voting other than to support your first choice-- and fight for proportional representation which is an altogether different argument.

Sorry this is long but I'm fed up by this strategic voting crap based on a series of ignorant and wrong assumptions and propped up by a willingness to forgo the very principle of a person's individual voting choice: put bluntly your position is one that I am not only opposed to but am disgusted by and this is not based on ignorance but positions I hold. I'll respect your positions if I can't your argument but don't tell me I am ignorant for having mine. So if you want to elect the Liberals put on a red pin and fight the loneliness but don't go around trying to hijack the political change that this country needs.



From: Richmond BC | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
North Shore
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posted 25 September 2008 09:35 PM      Profile for North Shore     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'm with Michelle on this, also. Taking the results from the last election from here we see that Jennifer Burgis, the NDP candidate, received 17,445 votes. Assuming a similar turnout etc.. if all of those people vote Green, now that Mr. West has withdrawn, then the total is 23978, still shy of Lunn's 24416. OTOH, if 50% of them go with Penn, then the Liberal vote would be 25,867, and a Conservative cabinet minister goes down to defeat A far better outcome, as I see it.
Perhaps Mr. West could be persuaded to step out of his private life and endorse a candidate?

From: Victoriahhhh | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
remind
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posted 25 September 2008 09:55 PM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Yes pogo, I concur with both you and sean in partucular in BC. And in the riding of SGI where there are now 17K worth of disenfranchised NDP voters, where they will park their vote is unknown, in particular by those from Ontario. Most riding in BC are a struggle between the NDP and CPC, outside of the 2 Vancouver ridings.

Briony Penn, is struggling in SGI, hence the removal of West. She is very popular on Salt Spring where her home is, but not as much in Sidney and Saanich. The Gulf Islands have a lot of very wealthy people living on them nowadays, thereby driving tax costs up for those who moved there decades ago their for ideals and this has caused a properity gap and friction amongst residents and who they actually believe are true environmentalists.

Briony was able to purchase a "heritage house" in Victoria, and have it moved by barge to Salt Spring. That action had mixed perceptions, some people thought "oh good for her for buying a 2nd hand house". While others thought it was pretentious, and a huge waste of resources for a non-energy efficient house. And so it goes.

And BC voters who are not long time Liberals voters, rarely consider giving the Liberals any votes, and this is more so for NDP voters. The candidate must be very very good, before they will, and I am not sure enough see Briony as that.

She is too well known as a environmentalist, and for being within the GP and her jumping ship to the Liberals, who did nothing in that respect has caused 'some' issues with environmentalists, who were such long before it became trendy. Perhaps not with the 'elite' ones, but definitely with those who got their hands dirty, and got more than just a few criminal charges doing so over the last 30+ years.

People would do better to vote their choice, not someone else's.


From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
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posted 26 September 2008 11:17 AM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
If you support gutter ball politics vote either Penn or Lunn. Otherwise vote Green or NDP.
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Stockholm
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posted 26 September 2008 11:21 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Maybe we can make a deal whereby all the people who were going to vote NDP in SGI can vote Liberal and in exchange all the people in Kildonan-St. paul who were going to vote Liberal can vote NDP! That way we rid ourselves of two Tory MPs!!
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Lord Palmerston
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posted 26 September 2008 11:37 AM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think the Tory will hang on. The Liberals are in too poor shape in BC to take it, and the Greens will probably have their best result in the country there, but it won't be enough.

[ 26 September 2008: Message edited by: Lord Palmerston ]


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Stockholm
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posted 26 September 2008 11:53 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
One of the best Green results in Canada in 2006 was in BC Southern Interior where the Tory candidate was dumped after the close of nominations.

i guess the Greens just need to hope that more candidates have to quit after its too late for their parties to replace them.


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North Shore
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posted 26 September 2008 06:22 PM      Profile for North Shore     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
If you support gutter ball politics vote either Penn or Lunn. Otherwise vote Green or NDP.

And how, exactly, do I go about voting for a candidate that has withdrawn (NDP)?? And if I put an 'X' in that NDP box, how is that anything other than a waste of my vote at a rather crucial time in our history??

Sadly, I think that Palmerston has it correctly - Lunn will sneak in "under" the radar, although, with West's withdrawal, it's going to be an interesting race..

[ 26 September 2008: Message edited by: North Shore ]


From: Victoriahhhh | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
Paul Gross
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posted 27 September 2008 10:53 AM      Profile for Paul Gross   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
In the last election, the Conservatives won Kildonan—St. Paul with 43% (Liberal came second) and Saanich—Gulf Islands with 37% (NDP came second)

The party that previously came second in these two riding have withdrawn their candidates in this election. So NDPers in SGI and Liberals in Kildonan have no sanctioned candidate to vote for.

So how about the NDP and Liberals (and Greens too, if they want) jointly and formally call on their supporters to vote NDP in Kildonan and Liberal in SGI?

[ 27 September 2008: Message edited by: Paul Gross ]


From: central Centretown in central Canada | Registered: Jan 2003  |  IP: Logged
Paul Gross
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posted 27 September 2008 11:13 AM      Profile for Paul Gross   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by North Shore:

And how, exactly, do I go about voting for a candidate that has withdrawn (NDP)?? And if I put an 'X' in that NDP box, how is that anything other than a waste of my vote at a rather crucial time in our history??


Notwithstanding an arrangement as proposed in my previous post, you can vote NDP in SGI.

My understanding is that Julian's name will be on the ballot. If you vote NDP, you express your support of the NDP, the NDP will get the aprox. $2 per year per vote funding from your vote, and your vote will count as NDP support in local, national and other totals.

Unless your vote is the tie breaker that causes an MP to be elected (which happens maybe once in every 10,000 ridings), this is all one's vote ever does.

[ 27 September 2008: Message edited by: Paul Gross ]


From: central Centretown in central Canada | Registered: Jan 2003  |  IP: Logged
NorthReport
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posted 27 September 2008 01:03 PM      Profile for NorthReport     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Brilliant Paul.

And as usual you nail it.

This is something that a lot of principled and well-intentioned NDPers often forget about. The Greens never forget about that, and it is always front and centre in all their election campaigns. A lot of NDPers need to smarten up when it comes to election financing, and learn how to better play the game.

The NDP campaign in Saanich Gulf Islands needs to be all about that federal financing rebate for every NDP vote.

[ 27 September 2008: Message edited by: NorthReport ]


From: From sea to sea to sea | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
Stunned Wind
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posted 28 September 2008 11:41 AM      Profile for Stunned Wind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'm in SGI and indeed, Julian West's name will still be on the ballot. Therefore voters can still vote for the NDP via his name. It would certainly be interesting if he were to win, even without campaigning!

Of course, this is highly unlikely.


From: Well! Now I'm in Victoria-Swan Lake! | Registered: Nov 2004  |  IP: Logged
remind
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posted 28 September 2008 11:48 AM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Who knows how the voters in SGI will break, eh? Maybe they will be so pissed at ON playing with BC politics that they will.
From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
NorthReport
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posted 28 September 2008 09:31 PM      Profile for NorthReport     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Lund must be the odds-on favourite to win this riding again.

First, Liberal leader Stephane Dion's enduring low popularity in British Columbia (and elsewhere in Canada) is a manifest deterrent to the Grits winning-over voters from other parties. Indeed, public opinion polls strongly suggest that many traditional Liberal supporters are currently looking elsewhere because of disaffection with Dion.

In the same vein, a strong performance by May in the televised leaders' debate could well attract voters from other parties, and especially the New Democrats and Liberals, to the Greens.

Simply, it is not at all evident that West's resignation will cause NDP supporters in Saanich-Gulf Islands to move in sufficient numbers to enable the Liberals to surpass Lunn and the Conservatives.

Second, the chart above shows that when the New Democratic Party vote in Saanich-Gulf Islands hit rock-bottom in 1997 and 2000, Lunn still managed to rack-up sizeable victories over his Liberal rivals. Clearly, Lunn was able to win the riding with a negligible NDP vote in the past, and it is not clear that he cannot do so again in the current election -- especially with current public opinion polls showing the Tories with strong support in B.C.

That being said, there is no doubt that Saanich-Gulf Islands will be one of the most exciting contests to watch on election night. Maybe this time it really will be different.

http://thetyee.ca/Views/2008/09/29/Lunn-Saanich/


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