Author
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Topic: Federal election in Newfoundland
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nicky
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 10066
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posted 03 September 2008 03:50 AM
I see that O'Hearn has announced he won't be running again. I think Doyle is also retiring, leaving both St John's seats vacant. It sounds like it may be a Conservative rout in Newfoundland.Can anyone share any intelligence on what is happening there? Is Jack Harris going to run? Will Danny williams campaign openly? About a year ago I heard williams unleashing the most eloquent anti-Harper invective, I think over the Atlantic accord and how Harper can't be trusted. He said someting like, "It just goes to show the pettiness of the man." I'd love to hear that soundbike re-used in the election campaign. For me, "pettiness" is le mot juste when it comes to summing up Harper.
From: toronto | Registered: Aug 2005
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ottawaobserver
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14981
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posted 03 September 2008 08:53 PM
quote: Originally posted by adma: And keep in mind that there's one Tory incumbent left running: Fabian Manning in Avalon...
A seat we came within 2 votes per poll of winning in 1997, with virtually no organization, I might add. I know we were trying to come back from not having official party status then, which is why the resources probably went elsewhere, but it sure was a shame. If you look at the number of strong seconds and near misses we've had in Nfld-Lab over the past number of years, and then think what could be done with proper resources, it really starts to put things in a new light!
From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2008
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Ken Burch
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 8346
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posted 04 September 2008 07:44 PM
quote: Originally posted by Malcolm French, APR: Mike Duffy was saying that Williams will be sending his workers out to support Harris and the NDP.
Does that mean that Williams and his provincial colleagues will now do a mass walkout from the PC's and become, by default, the first Newfoundland NDP government? [ 04 September 2008: Message edited by: Ken Burch ]
From: A seedy truckstop on the Information Superhighway | Registered: Feb 2005
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pebbles
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 6400
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posted 04 September 2008 07:55 PM
quote: Originally posted by Ken Burch:
Does that mean that Williams and his provincial colleagues will now do a mass walkout from the PC's and become, by default, the first Newfoundland NDP government? [ 04 September 2008: Message edited by: Ken Burch ]
Given Danny's profligate spending and his inflationary expansion of the provincial public service, he already is. (He doesn't have "colleagues", only sheep.)
From: Canada | Registered: Jul 2004
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Malcolm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 5168
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posted 04 September 2008 09:24 PM
quote: Originally posted by pebbles:
Given Danny's profligate spending and his inflationary expansion of the provincial public service, he already is. (He doesn't have "colleagues", only sheep.)
Nice try, pebbles, but CCF-NDP provincial governments actually have a very good record for financial stewardship. The sole exception, some yutz called Rae, now belongs to your party.
From: Regina, SK | Registered: Mar 2004
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500_Apples
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 12684
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posted 05 September 2008 05:20 PM
quote: Originally posted by Malcolm French, APR:
Nice try, pebbles, but CCF-NDP provincial governments actually have a very good record for financial stewardship. The sole exception, some yutz called Rae, now belongs to your party.
What about Glenn Clark?
From: Montreal, Quebec | Registered: Jun 2006
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V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193
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posted 05 September 2008 07:09 PM
quote: Originally posted by 500_Apples:
What about Glenn Clark?
The briefing books that the Liberal party received in 2001 showed that the provincial government was actually running a surplus at the time the BC NDP handed over power. Gordon Campbell then instituted massive tax cuts that put BC in structural deficit, and the largest nominal deficits in BC history, until the economy pulled out of recession and federal transfers increased under PM Paul Martin. This is not all to say that Glen Clark was some kind of economic top performer, but he was better than Gordon Campbell showed himself to be at the beginning of his first term.
From: - | Registered: May 2005
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Malcolm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 5168
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posted 05 September 2008 08:58 PM
On economic management, only one CCF-NDP premier in Canadian history can justifiably be described as a failure.That failure is now one of the two great hopes of the Liberal Party, Indeed, if we expand the criteria, almost every CCF-NDP Premier in Canadian history had some successes. The two exceptions - the two failures - would be Ujjal Dossanjh and Bob Rae. What ever bcame of those two?
From: Regina, SK | Registered: Mar 2004
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pebbles
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 6400
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posted 08 September 2008 05:54 PM
And Harris did.NDP nomination in St. John's South is tomorrow. Tories also have a candidate there, Federation of Agriculture honcho Merv Wiseman. The Tory and NDP slates still aren't full across the province though.
From: Canada | Registered: Jul 2004
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skarredmunkey
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11117
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posted 08 September 2008 07:51 PM
Cleary running for the NDP is a BIG surprise. Although Newfoundland nationalists seem to gravitate towards the party lately. Peg Norman once suggested NL should secede from Canada.I think Cleary could be an exciting addition to the NDP caucus if he can take on the Tories who are embedded in St. John's South, and Siobhan Coady who runs a semi-strong second there. And while I don't see any chance of him pulling an Angela Vautour and jumping ship to join another party (the Liberals are anathema to the local separatist bunch, as are the Harper Conservatives), I think his agenda will likely come before that of the NDP leadership if the two conflict.
From: Vancouver Centre | Registered: Nov 2005
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A_J
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 15412
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posted 09 September 2008 08:19 AM
quote: Originally posted by skarredmunkey: I think Cleary could be an exciting addition to the NDP caucus if he can take on the Tories who are embedded in St. John's South, and Siobhan Coady who runs a semi-strong second there.
St. John's Teleram on Ryan Cleary and the NDP: quote: Now, politics makes strange bedfellows, but it's more than fascinating that former Independent editor Ryan Cleary spent time last week considering running for the New Democrats. After all, in his columns, he's never had much good to say about the party. "The New Democrats are losers - there, I said it - a mainstream party that wouldn't win an election if Jackie Layton was given a 100-seat head start.... I'd have more respect for the NDP if they actually set out to win an election - instead of settling for spoiler." Furthermore, "the NDP (are) content to cater to the small pocket of aging granolas and artsy fartsies in Town" and "are desperate in the dream department." It's a regular theme: "The New Democrats are no more a provincial party than Water Street in downtown St. John's is a provincial highway. Lorraine Michael is no more a potential premier than John Hickey is a potential finance minister." "Despite the backing of most of the major unions, the New Democrats - outside the aging granolas in east end St. John's and the union crowd in Labrador City - are a lame political duck.... Peg Norman is one of the few names bandied about as potential leadership material. If she had any sense she'd join the Liberals - at least then, if successful, she'd have 11 other losers to hang out with." Yep. A political match made in heaven. Or else he hopes party members have short memories.
From: * | Registered: Aug 2008
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Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138
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posted 30 September 2008 03:52 PM
I noticed this poll result in the riding of Avalon reported today:This is actually a pretty good result for the NDP in a riding that is rural and where there have usually only been paper candidates. If the NDP can get 22% of the decided vote in a dead zone like Avalon - it bodes well for both St. John's ridings. quote: A new poll shows Conservative Fabian Manning holding on to a slim lead in Avalon. Telelink polled 546 likey voters in the district during the weekend. About a quarter, 25.1%, said they would vote for Manning, while 21.6% said they would vote for Liberal Scott Andrews. That’s just a 3.5 percentage point lead, within the margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points 19 times out of 20. NDP candidate Randy Dawe is in third with 12.6% support; 39.9% of respondents said they were still undecided.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002
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skarredmunkey
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11117
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posted 30 September 2008 06:32 PM
Avalon is an odd riding. When it used to be Bonavista-Trinity-Conception (parts of CBS, CBN, and the Bay de Verde and Bonavista Peninsulas, basically) it was safe-Liberal. Yet when the NDP made its breakthrough in Atlantic Canada in 1997, twinned with a popular candidate in Fraser March, the party came within 600 votes of beating the Liberals. At the time, the current NDP candidate in the Avalon, Randy Dawe, ran a distant third as a PC.In 2003 the riding was dissolved. The Liberal-voting Bonavista/Clarenville portion was ceded to the Central NFLD riding (Bonavista-Exploits), and the southern Avalon portion of the old slightly misnamed "St. John's West" was added. This is a sparsely populated but huge chunk of territory where people have been voting Tory since before Confederation, making the riding a bit more of a toss-up. Randy Dawe is a political chameleon and a perennial candidate. He has been a candidate or member of at least four political parties in the past eleven years (including, yes, the Canadian Alliance). If he could take in 20% of the vote it would not be surprising, but it would not be something to build on unless the riding had a big-name candidate. (There are not, of course, many NDP-leaning stars in the province, but this is the riding that has given the world Brian Tobin and John Efford).
From: Vancouver Centre | Registered: Nov 2005
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Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138
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posted 02 October 2008 01:38 PM
HOLY MOLY!!!This could become the safest NDP seat in Canada!! quote: The NTV/Telelink poll shows NDP candidate Jack Harris has opened up a big lead in St. John's East. Telelink polled 526 likely voters during the weekend. A majority of respondents, 52.3%, said they plan to vote for Jack Harris on election day. Liberal candidate Walter Noel is a distant second with 8.7%. In a statistical tie for second is Conservative candidate Craig Westcott, who has 8.2%. Undecided are 30.4% of respondents, the lowest undecided rate of the three Avalon peninsula ridings.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002
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V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193
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posted 04 October 2008 03:05 PM
Jack Harris would be a major asset in the NDP caucus. Maybe he would replace Libby Davies as House Leader and she could be moved to a high profile vacant portfolio like Health (a portfolio well suited to her riding, as it is home to InSite).ETA: On second hand, its nice to have a woman in such a high profile role in the NDP cabinet, especially given that Mulcair is Deputy Leader and covers Finance. Perhaps there could be a second Deputy Leader (Libby) in charge of an additional portfolio and Jack Harris could be put as House Leader. Or maybe there could be two Deputy House Leaders (Davies and Harris) both with minor portfolios. [ 04 October 2008: Message edited by: V. Jara ]
From: - | Registered: May 2005
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remind
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 6289
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posted 04 October 2008 03:09 PM
Edited as Vjara changed post after/while I was saying I disagreed.ETA: to say; the men in the NDP had better smarten the hell up and realize who is the major portion of the supporting voters for the party! The day that I might consider it okay for a newly minted male MP to again get a top caucus position, shifting, a long sitting vibrant female, out and into a nothing position, is the day I start voting GP. [ 04 October 2008: Message edited by: remind ]
From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004
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V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193
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posted 04 October 2008 10:18 PM
quote: Originally posted by remind: Edited as Vjara changed post after/while I was saying I disagreed.ETA: to say; the men in the NDP had better smarten the hell up and realize who is the major portion of the supporting voters for the party! The day that I might consider it okay for a newly minted male MP to again get a top caucus position, shifting, a long sitting vibrant female, out and into a nothing position, is the day I start voting GP. [ 04 October 2008: Message edited by: remind ]
Yeah, well frankly the NDP hasn't done a good enough job of helping its female MPs achieve the same prominence as people like Jack Harris. Which is why it is even tempting to put him in a position of relative power within the caucus. I wonder what would be the result if someone kept stats on how often the NDP sends a male MP to represent them on talk shows, etc vs. a female MP. I'm going to miss Alexa McDonough, she was great. Thank goodness the NDP has no shortage of female talent among its MPs.
From: - | Registered: May 2005
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skarredmunkey
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11117
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posted 16 October 2008 04:40 AM
Okay, I can't find any thread that's discussing this.Ryan Cleary came within 1047 votes (or 3%) of beating Liberal Siobhan Coady. He got 40.5% of the vote in St. John's South--Mount Pearl. The NDP vote in the province as a whole increased from 14% in 2006 to 34% (the Tories dropped from 43% to 17%, and the Liberals increased from 43% to only 47%). The NDP placed 3rd only in Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor, and Avalon. They placed second everywhere else, and of course... Jack Harris won with 75% of the vote in St. John's East! Voter turnout was low, and much of this can be attributed to the ABC campaign. But yesterday was still a really, REALLY good day for the NDP in Newfoundland and Labrador. [ 16 October 2008: Message edited by: skarredmunkey ]
From: Vancouver Centre | Registered: Nov 2005
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KenS
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 1174
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posted 16 October 2008 05:26 AM
As well as just missing that seat- it really is a shame such a high vote share produced only one seat.The trick will be translating that vote share into something concrete- with the added twist that some of it has to be flash in the pan. Still, there is a great deal to build on. And NF may in one shot have taken from NS being the highest provincial vote share for the federal NDP. Don't have the numbers.
From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001
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Policywonk
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 8139
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posted 16 October 2008 11:48 AM
quote: And NF may in one shot have taken from NS being the highest provincial vote share for the federal NDP. Don't have the numbers.
Provincial, but not provincial or territorial vote share. However the Yukon is a real downer compared to the NWT (Bevington re-elected) and Nunavut (a very strong third). All the numbers are here, although not quite official yet. Results of 2008 Federal Election
From: Edmonton | Registered: Feb 2005
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