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Topic: Latest poll numbers in Quebec
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Stockholm
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Babbler # 3138
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posted 29 March 2008 06:40 AM
http://www.cyberpresse.ca/article/20080329/CPACTUALITES/803290815/6730/CPACTUALITESVery interesting. This is a big sample Quebec only poll of 1,000 Quebecers by CROP - and they tend to be way more accurate than the Quebec sub-sample numbers in national polls. To summarize: BQ - 30% (down from 42% in the last election) CPC - 29% (up from 25%) Liberals - 20% (down from 21%) NDP - 15% (up from 7%) !! I guess that leaves 6% for so-called green/other (up from 5%) and most of the fieldwork was done BEFORE all ther latest bad publicity for Dion. This could really set up some four-way races that the NDP could win in Quebec.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002
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ocsi
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Babbler # 13760
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posted 29 March 2008 08:15 AM
quote: Originally posted by Stockholm: Later in the article, they mention that the poll also asks Quebecers who would make the best PM of Canada. Harper gets 35%, Layton 24% and Dion 16%!!This makes me think that in a campaign, the NDP has the potential to rise while the Liberals will likely fall further.
The NDP has to sell itself as a viable and credible federalist alternative to the Liberals and Conservatives. I keep reading that the Conservatives will likely pick up Liberal votes simply because they see them as the only federalist alternative to the Liberals.
From: somewhere over the rainbow | Registered: Jan 2007
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ocsi
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Babbler # 13760
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posted 29 March 2008 08:25 AM
quote: Originally posted by V. Jara:
Not in Montreal.
Great! There are many federalist seats that, given a four way race, the NDP could pick up. Plus, many people will look at the jump in NDP support in the polls and they'll join in.
From: somewhere over the rainbow | Registered: Jan 2007
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ocsi
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Babbler # 13760
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posted 29 March 2008 08:29 AM
quote: Originally posted by Stockholm:
What do you call attarcting people like Tom Mulcair and Francoise Boivin (and more to come) and holding conferences in Rimouski and a national convention in Quebec City and having Layton have as a high a profile as possible in Quebec and the party setting aside MILLIONS of dollars to be spent on the campaign in Quebec in the next election?
Okay, I'll change my original comment to read: "The NDP has to continue to sell itself as a viable and credible federalist alternative to the Liberals and Conservatives. Is that better?
From: somewhere over the rainbow | Registered: Jan 2007
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A Blair
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Babbler # 5845
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posted 29 March 2008 08:47 AM
Very interesting to note that, as usual, pundits both inside & outside Quebec just don't understand the political dynamic here: quote: « Mais le parti qui profite davantage de la baisse de popularité du Bloc québécois, c'est le NPD. Les néo-démocrates sont en effet passés de 7,5% en janvier 2006 à 15% aujourd'hui. »
For years the mantra has been that the dominant political axis is federalist vs. separatist in Quebec. But instead, poll results show that the declining Bloc vote is going to the NDP more than any other party! How is this explained by the "federalist-separatist" axis dogma repeated ad nauseum? Sure, it plays a role, but it might be far from as dominant as the pundits want us to think. Maybe it is finally time to stop flogging that dead horse.
From: Canada | Registered: May 2004
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Stockholm
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Babbler # 3138
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posted 29 March 2008 08:52 AM
quote: "The NDP has to continue to sell itself as a viable and credible federalist alternative to the Liberals and Conservatives.Is that better?
Yes, that's better, but the flip side of the coin is that the NDP also has to sell itself as a viable and credible progressive alternative to the Bloc Quebecois!!
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002
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unionist
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Babbler # 11323
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posted 29 March 2008 08:53 AM
The federalist-separatist axis is truly a red herring. Quebeckers seek and need a party that represents all their interests, and the "national" one is only one of many. The popularity of the Bloc, like the PQ, has been in huge part due to their perceived (and often real) attachment to progressive social, gender, labour, economic and other causes. They filled the left-wing void in Québec politics.Having said that, the CCF/NDP for decades rendered itself irrelevant in the Québec scene because it was seen and portrayed, not only as being even more "centralist" than all other parties (which it probably was), but opposing Québec's inalienable right to self-determination. With the adoption of the Sherbrooke Declaration and many similar changes, the NDP has hopefully recognized the folly of trying to attract Quebeckers to their flag while telling them that others will decide whether they have to remain in Canada. Layton's backtracking on the Clarity Act in the last federal election campaign was unconscionable, but maybe they're starting to get it. If they can't say the right thing, it's better to shut up on the subject.
From: Vote QS! | Registered: Dec 2005
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Spaceman Spiff
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Babbler # 8047
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posted 30 March 2008 05:18 PM
quote: Originally posted by Aristotleded24:
So you're excited about the NDP winning 3 or 4 more seats in Quebec, all at Liberal expense?
I know I am. I think that the NDP would pick up seats in Montreal from the Bloc and not just the Liberals. But tell me again why the Liberals are entitled to ANY seats after supporting Harper for the last six months?
From: Nepean | Registered: Jan 2005
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Wilf Day
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Babbler # 3276
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posted 30 March 2008 08:59 PM
quote: Originally posted by Stockholm: This could really set up some four-way races that the NDP could win in Quebec.
Like . . .Jeanne-Le Ber? Hull-Aylmer? Gatineau? Laval? Alfred-Pellan? Saint-Lambert?? Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques?? Chicoutimi--Le Fjord?? Vaudreuil-Soulanges?? Laurier--Sainte-Marie??? Brome--Missisquoi??? Manicouagan???
From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002
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ottawaobserver
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Babbler # 14981
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posted 30 March 2008 09:25 PM
quote: Originally posted by Wilf Day:
Like . . .Jeanne-Le Ber? Hull-Aylmer? Gatineau? Laval? Alfred-Pellan? Saint-Lambert?? Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques?? Chicoutimi--Le Fjord?? Vaudreuil-Soulanges?? Laurier--Sainte-Marie??? Brome--Missisquoi??? Manicouagan???
Fun trivia fact: Laurier--Ste-Marie was the only seat where the NDP came second last time (Duceppe's own riding). Rimouski is an interesting one, because the Bloc MP, Louise Thibault, left their caucus (or was pushed, I don't remember exact details). They've since nominated another candidate, but I thought I read that Thibault was planning to run again as an independent ... anyone know anything about that? Having the incumbent run as an independent can create some openings (viz. Desjarlais in Churchill). Laval – Les Îles should be fascinating to watch, because the Conservative candidate, Agop Evereklian, is a former aide to the Liberal incumbent, Raymonde Folco. Was this Mulcair's provincial constituency, or am I mixed up? Also, if it's true that the NDP is picking up votes from the Bloc, it might be worth us looking at a few more of the East Island ridings, although I can't claim to know much about Montreal. For example, you didn't have Rosemont-La Petite Patrie on your list ... isn't the NDP running Alexandre Boulerice from CUPE there? I wonder, if the Libs cave on the immigration changes, would any of the allophone ridings in north-east Montreal become vulnerable (Ahuntsic, Honore-Mercier, Papineau, St-Leonard-St-Michel). Hopefully someone with some local knowledge will weigh in and give us some grist for the mill. [And whoever can oust Denis Coderre in Bourassa would deserve a medal, and I would probably include the Conservatives in that.]
From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2008
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KenS
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Babbler # 1174
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posted 30 March 2008 09:45 PM
quote: I wonder, if the Libs cave on the immigration changes, would any of the allophone ridings in north-east Montreal become vulnerable (Ahuntsic, Honore-Mercier, Papineau, St-Leonard-St-Michel).
No local knowledge here, but here is my guess. In general, the Libs ducking on the immigration issue will not I think shake many people except some of those ready to move anyway. But I would hazard to guess that the Montreal allophones might be an exception- where the NDP is seen as fresh, where the Liberals are in local disrepute already, etc. But the Liberals have a stranglehold in most [all?] the ridings where the allophones are most numerous. I don't see this being enough to shake the Liberals out of the west island. But there are allophones everywhere and they could have a substantial effect in ridings where the NDP either is a new contendor for the Liberals or in what were previously Lib/Bloc contests where the NDP is bleeding from both and the allophones play a role in the Liberal bleed. [ 30 March 2008: Message edited by: KenS ]
From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001
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Geneva
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Babbler # 3808
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posted 31 March 2008 02:44 AM
quote: Originally posted by V. Jara: I don't think the NDP has ever made a strong pitch to the allophone community in Québec, unlike they do (with moderate success) in places like the Lower Mainland of BC and Toronto.
one problem: the "historic" Quebec immigrant communities, first Jewish, then Italian, became 100 per cent super-loyal Liberal voters, and since then the Hispanic, Middle Eastern and Asian communities have pretty much followed that path, although not as pronounced, given they are rattled by Quebec nationalism and hence stick with the Big Dog, i.e. Liberal Party, for political effectiveness
From: um, well | Registered: Feb 2003
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nicky
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Babbler # 10066
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posted 31 March 2008 03:43 AM
The poll numbers may translate into some surpriising seat totals. Assuming a straight swing accross the province without regional variations I get:Bloq 37 (-14) Con 18 (+8) Lib 18 (+5) Ind 1 NDP 1 (on the numbers reaaly this shd be 0 but I am asssuming Mulcair will hold his seat.) The Libs do relatively well because of their concentration in Montreal. They also lost a number of close ridings last time to the Bloc whose vote is falling much more than theirs.The Bloc gets double the seats the Cons do on essentially the same vote becuase their vote is more efficient, not being wasted in the West Island. I realize the limits of this analysis and hope someone can provide a more sophisticated one.
From: toronto | Registered: Aug 2005
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Adam T
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Babbler # 4631
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posted 31 March 2008 05:32 AM
The problem for the N.D.P in Quebec has been that their vote is too evenly spread out. Outside of Montreal and Hull-Allymer the N.D.P got between 4-8% of the vote in virtually every riding.In parts of Montreal the N.D.P vote is higher but still fairly evenly spread out. The highest vote percentage in the last election was something like 17.5%, and that riding is now represented by Mulcair. I would think the N.D.P would be lucky to gain any more, it will definately depend on whether they can get any more 'star' candidates. That said, I will certainly admit that I don't know the situation 'on the ground' and there may be the odd riding where all the circumstances come together. [ 31 March 2008: Message edited by: Adam T ]
From: Richmond B.C | Registered: Nov 2003
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Mercy
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Babbler # 13853
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posted 31 March 2008 06:39 AM
quote: Originally posted by Adam T: The problem for the N.D.P in Quebec has been that their vote is too evenly spread out. Outside of Montreal and Hull-Allymer the N.D.P got between 4-8% of the vote in virtually every riding.In parts of Montreal the N.D.P vote is higher but still fairly evenly spread out. The highest vote percentage in the last election was something like 17.5%, and that riding is now represented by Mulcair. I would think the N.D.P would be lucky to gain any more, it will definately depend on whether they can get any more 'star' candidates.
If an election were being held today this would be true but since it isn't it's the trend that's noteworthy.And that trend is very promising - a total validation of the efforts that Mulcair and Layton have been making. Quebec politics of late has been so volatile that parties heading into the race in a miserable third (like the ADQ) become official Opposition and nearly government. Parties that were in the single digits (like Harper's Cons) become leading parties. To be the party that's suddenly doubling in support is a very good place to be. To pass the Liberals in the Quebec City region is an extraordinary place to be. As always, we take bad polls with a grain of salt and good polls as divine gospel - but if this trend reflects what's happening out there we're in for some interesting times.
From: Ontario, Canada | Registered: Feb 2007
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Sean in Ottawa
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Babbler # 4173
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posted 31 March 2008 01:37 PM
I am not convinced that the NDP vote is as wide and thin as some may think. When the NDP support is low it is flat but when it rises to the levels it is now it is not likely so flat. We can only guess without historical data for such an NDP surge where that support is. Extensive ground work will be required just to identify which seats are close for us. The Liberals would benefit from a moderate movement of voters from the BQ to the Cons as that would leave them in first place in many ridings they were second to the BQ provided the Cons are still third-- in many cases they had so far to go that this would be the case. However, this latest poll is indicating that the Cons may now be passing the Liberals in those ridings- the question is of course where that Con vote is. If it is in ridings where the Liberals were flat, the Liberals could gain seats however if it is in those Liberal close ridings then things could got he other way. We should never assume that there is one simple move either. It could be that the many votes are in flux with BQ votes going to all the other parties and the The Liberals also losing votes to the NDP leaving them close to where they were. If this is the case then they could be picking up support in poor areas and losing it in the ridings thye need to win-- if so then the bloodbath could be worse for the Liberals than people are even guessing as it could be their vote flatening.
From: Ottawa | Registered: Jun 2003
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Uncle John
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Babbler # 14940
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posted 31 March 2008 04:05 PM
What kind of new constituencies is the NDP capturing in Quebec? What are their demographics and value sets?Where are there other places in Quebec where there are people with similar demographics and value sets? Surely that is where a party should go, not necessarily some place with anecdotal notoriety.
From: Toronto | Registered: Feb 2008
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Adam T
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Babbler # 4631
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posted 31 March 2008 04:42 PM
quote: Quebec politics of late has been so volatile that parties heading into the race in a miserable third (like the ADQ) become official Opposition and nearly government.
True enough, but I would point out 2 things about that: 1.They almost won a minority government. It's not like they almost went from 5 seats to 63 (although they still had a big increase). As I showed in my numerical analysis of the Quebec Provincial election (which should be on the (Manitoba-Ontario-Quebec board somewhere), every riding the ADQ won in 2007 they received over 15% of the vote in 2003. I think 15% is significant in that it shows a certain critical mass of support (and they won nearly every riding in 2007 where they received 15%+ of the vote in 2003). So yes, there is volatility, but the unpredictable things that occured still occured in predictable ways (if that makes any sense). For the N.D.P, this means that it's far less likely they will make breakthroughs in most ridings in Quebec because there were only about 8-10 ridings where they got over 10% of the vote last time (and I think just 2 or 3 where they got over 15% of the vote). That said, I don't think anybody here is expecting an ADQ like breakthrough for the NDP in Quebec anyway.
From: Richmond B.C | Registered: Nov 2003
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adma
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Babbler # 11856
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posted 31 March 2008 05:33 PM
quote: Originally posted by Adam T: As I showed in my numerical analysis of the Quebec Provincial election (which should be on the (Manitoba-Ontario-Quebec board somewhere), every riding the ADQ won in 2007 they received over 15% of the vote in 2003. I think 15% is significant in that it shows a certain critical mass of support (and they won nearly every riding in 2007 where they received 15%+ of the vote in 2003). So yes, there is volatility, but the unpredictable things that occured still occured in predictable ways (if that makes any sense).
Then there's the Harper 2006 wins... Beauce: 17.09 2004; 67.02 2006. Beauport: 15.96 2004; 39.54 2006. Charlesbourg-HSC: 15.78 2004; 41.04 2006. Jonquiere-Alma: 4.83 2004; 52.09 2006! Levis-Bellechasse: 19.05 2004; 46.40 2006. Lotbiniere-CDLC: 24.14 2004; 54.34 2006. Louis-Hebert: 13.45 2004; 34.47 2006. Louis-St-Laurent: 31.13 2004; 57.68 2006. Megantic-L'Erable: 11.42 2004; 49.85 2006. Pontiac: 22.15 2004; 33.68 2006. Portneuf-JC: 21.49 2004; 22.67 2006 + 39.84 A. Arthur. Roberval-LSJ: 8.66 2004; 37.18 2006; 49.45 2007 byelection.
From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006
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ottawaobserver
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Babbler # 14981
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posted 31 March 2008 06:48 PM
A few things: * yes, LaSalle – Émard is where Rebecca Blaikie ran in 2004; if you click on "Census Data", it ranked 16th in the country in the % of tenants (although just 4th in the central Montreal area; I guess there are a lot of tenants in downtown Montreal); also, it has a 23% immigrant population (compared to 38% in Outremont) * here are the NDP's best seats in Quebec in 2006; of the seats mentioned in this thread, a lot of them appear at the top of the list alright (OK not LaSalle – Émard, but it was the PM's riding) ... there are 11 seats at 10% or higher last time, plus another 5 at 9%. Most of them are in Montréal, a couple are in Québec city, and the rest are in the furthest eastern points (Manicouagan, Chicoutimi, and Rimouski), except for Sherbrooke in the Eastern Townships. As others have mentioned, there may be some seats lower on the list that with top-notch candidates could become competitive, and perhaps there some at the top of the list that are not yet ripe. Here are the top ones... 17% Outremont 17% Laurier – Sainte-Marie 15% Hull – Aylmer 15% Westmount – Ville-Marie 13% Manicouagan 12% Notre-Dame-de-Grâce – Lachine 11% Rosemont – La Petite-Patrie 11% Lac-Saint-Louis 10% Pontiac 10% Gatineau 10% Rimouski-Neigette – Témiscouata – Les Basques 9% Québec 9% Jeanne-Le Ber 9% Louis-Hébert 9% Sherbrooke 9% Hochelaga
From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2008
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Wilf Day
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Babbler # 3276
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posted 31 March 2008 07:08 PM
quote: Originally posted by Stockholm: The results from last time in Lasalle-Emard are deceptive. It is a very working class, run-down riding - much like Jeanne LeBer.
2001 census average household income: Quebec $49,998 Westmount-Ville-Marie $70,144 Saint-Lambert $52,246 Honoré-Mercier $52,241 Saint-Laurent-Cartierville $52,062 Outremont $51,808 Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Lachine $49,026 Laval $47,899 Ahuntsic $47,043 Jeanne-LeBer $45,718 La Pointe-de-l'Île $45,527 LaSalle-Émard $44,209 Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel $42,759 Laurier $40,436 Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie $37,052 Bourassa $36,848 Hochelaga $36,434 Papineau $34,380
From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002
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Adam T
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Babbler # 4631
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posted 31 March 2008 07:13 PM
quote: Jonquiere-Alma: 4.83 2004; 52.09 2006!
This was an obviously unique situation where you had the fairly popular former P.C M.P Jean Pierre Blackburn running for the Conservatives and also at the last minute the Liberal candidate basically quit and endorsed him. It does certainly show that in individual ridings anything can happen, but most of the time a political party needs a certain established critical mass of support to acheive a breakthrough. Of the 9 other ridings the Conservatives won, they had over 15% in the previous election in 7 of them and the two other cases I believe were ridings in and around the same area.
From: Richmond B.C | Registered: Nov 2003
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pebbles
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Babbler # 6400
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posted 31 March 2008 07:49 PM
quote: Originally posted by Stockholm: its criminal that a fabulously wealthy multimillionaire like Martin is collecting a paycheck while doing SWEET FUCK ALL as an MP - meanwhile people in the riding essentially have no representation.
How wealthy do you have be before it's criminal? Paul Martin wealthy? Alexa McDonough wealthy? What's the cutoff?
From: Canada | Registered: Jul 2004
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Malcolm
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Babbler # 5168
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posted 31 March 2008 08:02 PM
quote: Originally posted by pebbles:
How wealthy do you have be before it's criminal? Paul Martin wealthy? Alexa McDonough wealthy? What's the cutoff?
The problem is less that he's wealthy than that he is wealthy and still collecting a paycheque for a job he isn't doing. (Actually, I'd still be pissed if her were poor and collecting a paycheque for a job he wasn't doing.
From: Regina, SK | Registered: Mar 2004
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Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138
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posted 31 March 2008 08:12 PM
quote: With all due respect to the young Ms Blaikie, I suspect we'd do better with a candidate with some legitimate claim to Quebec roots.
I don't know how many years you have to live somewhere to have legitimate roots. Rebecca Blaikie has actually lived in Montreal for quite a few years and is now the NDP provincial secretary for Quebec and by all accounts doing a very good job. Allan Blakeney was born and raised in Nova Scotia. Did anyone question whether he had enough roots in Saskatchewan to run for office? Does anyone scoff at Jack layton running for a seat in Toronto when he was born and raised in Montreal? Does anyone in Calgary denounce Stephen Harper as a carpetbagger from Toronto?
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002
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Malcolm
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Babbler # 5168
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posted 01 April 2008 10:33 PM
quote: Originally posted by Stockholm:
If the guy refuses to do any work, he should resign or at the very least forfeit his paycheck or donate it to charity. Instead Paul Martin insists on being a shameless social parasite. Earning money for doing NOTHING.
Belinda Stronach, whatever else one may think of her, has been donating her Parliamentary salary to charity from the start. And she actually turns up to work from time to time.
From: Regina, SK | Registered: Mar 2004
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KenS
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Babbler # 1174
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posted 02 April 2008 05:18 AM
quote: The NDP has virtually zero organization on the ground in ANY riding in Quebec. Even in Outremont, it all had to be built from scratch. Lasalle-Emard is as good a place to make an effort as any!
Broadly distributed rises in the polls, and better internet working on that would help. But to win a riding, in the end you have to do it 'on the gorund'. Building a winning organization when you had almost nothing to show before is easier than you would think. It happened in Nova Scotia in 1997-8, and is happening now in Quebec. When you have special momentum, and put up the headquarters, people come. The Nova Scotia NDP is chock full of people who first got involved at all during or shortly before those historic campaigns. We are folks who had always voted NDP, may have once or twice gone to an event, but had never before seen anything sufficeint to get involved with. The point is we were out there in the woodwork, as people are in Quebec. Election campaigns put the resources and the structure on the gound, and when you have momentum, the volunteers just come in the door. That's the practical manifestation of overnight building an organization from scratch.
From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001
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KenS
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Babbler # 1174
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posted 02 April 2008 05:22 AM
Just realized that there are two such NS NDP 'veterans' in this discussion.I don't know about David, but I actually did not came in with that wave of activists than came in during the run-up to the 97-98 campaigns or in the elections themselves. I was in a little before that, so I got to see the difference. But I consider myself most like that wave of folks that came in then- and like a great many, came from a place where the NDP had gone from zero organization or presence to winning.
From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001
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West Coast Lefty
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posted 02 April 2008 09:29 PM
quote: Belinda Stronach, whatever else one may think of her, has been donating her Parliamentary salary to charity from the start. And she actually turns up to work from time to time.
I read somewhere that Paul Martin also donates his salary...but his total disregard for his duty to his constituents is still unacceptable and he should resign his seat immediately. quote: maybe the NDP can start by demanding that Paul Martin (the social parasite) resign his seat so that a byelection can be held - its criminal that a fabulously wealthy multimillionaire like Martin is collecting a paycheck while doing SWEET FUCK ALL as an MP - meanwhile people in the riding essentially have no representation.
Jack has demanded that Martin resign his seat. As for Martin's salary... quote: Moreover, Martin is donating to First Nations charities the after-tax income from his $155,400 annual salary as MP for the southwest Montreal riding, his office argues.
That's admirable, but Paul needs to quit as MP if he's not prepared to do the job the people of Lasalle-Emard sent him to Ottawa to do.
From: Victoria, B.C. | Registered: Feb 2003
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Lord Palmerston
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posted 08 April 2008 08:38 AM
quote: "They [Liberal Party leadership] just don't know what they're doing, that's the perception. I'm pretty sure, they think they know what they're doing and I'm pretty sure they've a strategy they have worked out for themselves. But outside of Ottawa, people are saying, 'What the hell is going on?' " said one senior Liberal who spoke to The Hill Times on condition of anonymity last week."They've run away from every battle saying, 'I don't like this, but I'm not going to oppose it.' That creates a perception problem just not only for the rank and file Liberals but also for the general public also. I see them as weak, others see them as weak, it might be good strategy, maybe a short-term strategy that has long-term negative consequences. They have left the field open to the Conservatives on a whole range of issues. How can you say, 'We've been opposed to what the Conservatives have been doing when you haven't voted against the Conservatives.' How do you go into an election saying that?"
http://tinyurl.com/58t5gy [ 08 April 2008: Message edited by: Lord Palmerston ]
From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004
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